Sri Lanka Equity Forum
Dear Reader,

Registration with the Sri Lanka Equity Forum would enable you to enjoy an array of other services such as Member Rankings, User Groups, Own Posts & Profile, Exclusive Research, Live Chat Box etc..

All information contained in this forum is subject to Disclaimer Notice published.


Thank You
Sri Lanka Equity Forum

Discussion Forum for Stock Market Investors in Sri Lanka

සිංහල පරිවර්තනය

Latest topics

» Tea prices up and up.Plantation shares down and down!
by fortuneteller Today at 8:20 am

» For Miss Sangeetha
by Miss-Sangeetha Yesterday at 7:54 pm

» coco.x share
by lakmal87 Fri Dec 15, 2017 10:45 pm

» නොමිළේම ඩොලර් (free $ 5 ) tokens
by cseguide Fri Dec 15, 2017 7:58 pm

» S&P upgrades DFCC Bank’s rating outlook from Negative to Stable
by TraderCSE Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:23 am

» CFVF will HIT. 40 BY Next. Thursday
by Yahapalanaya Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:50 pm

» Moody’s affirms ratings of three Sri Lankan banks; maintains negative outlook
by Miss-Sangeetha Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:39 pm

» best stocks to buy now
by Ryan Hudson Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:23 pm

» Current situation of the Adam group of companies
by anges Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:36 pm

» Avoid investing in Abans Group company shares
by fortuneteller Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:11 am

» People's Leasing Company
by prasa2004 Tue Dec 12, 2017 6:51 pm

» SDB - AN IMPRESSIVE PERFORMANCE
by prasa2004 Tue Dec 12, 2017 5:43 pm

» Beware of banking stocks
by prasa2004 Tue Dec 12, 2017 5:40 pm

» CEYLON COLD STORES PLC(CCS.N0000)
by Agape Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:49 pm

» Lanka Cement
by sureshot Tue Dec 12, 2017 11:09 am

» Roshan Egodage's Money Grabbing
by Investor1994 Mon Dec 11, 2017 7:10 pm

» CIFL ANY NEWS
by Gambino7 Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:13 pm

» CFT share එක මොනව හරි දෙයක් වෙනව වාගෙ.
by sameboy Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:43 pm

» BFN .. ORIENT FINANCE PLC
by Teller Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:52 pm

» Sri Lanka Exports up 12.9-pct in Sept
by Teller Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:38 am

» DECEMBER DISCOUNT
by Teller Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:30 am

» LLMP - New Strategic Marketing >>> Boooom
by Teller Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:27 am

» Why LLUB.N0000 going down ?
by Teller Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:20 am

» LDEV rights
by Teller Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:16 am

» SAMP Rights Issue
by niru Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:04 pm

HashFlare

You are not connected. Please login or register

Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market News » Sri Lanka bank liquid assets shrink amid peg defence

Sri Lanka bank liquid assets shrink amid peg defence

View previous topic View next topic Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

monash

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Jan 28, 2012 (LBO) - Liquid assets in Sri Lankan banks are falling and loan to deposit ratios are deteriorating, with some banks reaching 100 percent, Fitch Ratings Lanka said as authorities continued to defend a dollar peg creating a liquidity crunch.
Fitch said in an report on the outlook on Sri Lankan banks that loan to deposit ratios of some banks with "less mature deposit franchises" are approaching 100 percent.

Loan to deposit ratios have risen from about 77 percent by end-2010 to 80 percent by June 2011. By September loan to deposit ratios of banks tracked by Fitch had risen to 90 percent.

Sri Lanka's Central Bank started to defend a dollar peg actively from around July by selling foreign exchange to banks in return for rupees as credit growth picked up and put pressure on a dollar soft peg.

The foreign exchange interventions caused liquidity shortages, forcing rates up, even though there has been no formal raising of policy rates.

Fitch said deposit rates have risen and bank net interest margins were shrinking.

To prevent rates rising further, the Central Bank offset or 'sterilized' interventions in the forex market by purchasing Treasury bills including from banks and injecting liquidity (printing money) in to money markets.

The liquidity fuels new credit, triggering fresh imports, resulting in further reserve losses, creating a vicious cycle of expansionary sterilized interventions.

Balance of payments crisis are a problem associated with so-called 'soft-pegged' central banks which try to target an exchange rate and then also tries to control interest rates by printing money.

Fitch said banks have been selling down liquid assets held largely in the form of government securities which are gradually channelled into lending, though lenders have to keep at least a 20 percent liquid asset to total liabilities ratio to meet regulations.

The Central Bank held 180 billion rupees of Treasury bills in its domestic asset portfolio by January 2012 from near zero in July 2011 as balance of payments pressure gathered pace.

Banks are now paying as much as 12 percent or more for customer deposits but 3-month Treasury bills yield as little as 8.67 percent and 12-month bills only 9.30 percent creating an incentive to get rid of Treasuries.

LBO's economics column warned over five months ago that banks were not raising enough deposits to fund rising credit growth and that the country was heading towards a balance of payments pressure and rates have to be allowed to move up fast to prevent the peg breaking.

"There is a persistent imbalance between loans made and deposits raised by the banking system, indicating that a market clearing interest rate is needed to maintain the peg to the US dollar," LBO's economics columnist fussbudget warned in August.

"To head off any 'balance of payments' problem the central bank has to weaken the rupee or allow interest rates to go up. If neither happens, credit expansion is on track to crash land in the balance of payments."

When banks raise deposits consumption is curbed (reducing pressure on the forex market) and only that 'demand' is released as credit.

But when Treasury bills are sold to the Central Bank, newly printed money is expansionary generating new aggregate demand and pressure on the peg through imports.

"Deteriorating loan to deposit ratios and declining liquid assets demonstrates in practice how this phenomenon works through the balance sheets of banks," LBO's economics columnist fuss-budget says.

"It is also interesting to note that the decline in liquid assets is the first step of how a currency crisis transforms into a banking crisis.

"The emerging trends in the banking system should be carefully noted and not forgotten so that interest rates are allowed to move up in the future without delay so as to head off episodes to balance of payments pressure as soon as credit growth becomes too strong."

A fully fledged banking crisis happens when interest rates rise and remain at levels for long enough so that it no longer makes sense for businesses to borrow and they start to default and bad loans mount.

http://www.lankabusinessonline.com/fullstory.php?nid=332752896[b]

Antonym

avatar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
This is a concern, folks... It looks like CBSL will need to depreciate the rupee sooner or later.
Do you think foreign funds will hold back equity purchases in anticipation of another devaluation?

View previous topic View next topic Back to top  Message [Page 1 of 1]

Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum