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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Expert Chamber » Why am I so pessimistic about Sri Lanka's Equity Market

Why am I so pessimistic about Sri Lanka's Equity Market

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Quibit

Quibit
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
I have listed below the reasons why I am so pessimistic about the current investment opportunities in the Colombo Stock Market.

a) Interest rates are on its way up.

From as low as 7% p.a interest rate few months ago the rates are spiraling upward with each bank competing with the one another to attract deposits. Few weeks ago I noticed one of the leading listed commercial bank (Nation Trust Bank) offering 12% p.a for 6-12 months deposits via email campaign few days later be out done by Pan Asia Bank with a offer of 15% p.a for 5 year deposits. With this trend 20% p.a is not impossible!!

As a depositor I am delighted to see this kind of increase in interest rates, which will make my money work for me without my having to work at all. If interest rates are going to be above 15%p.a it may not be a bad idea for me to sell all my business including stock market investment and deposit everything in a fixed deposit. Tell me any business that could guarantee you 15% Net Profit per annum without any risk!! Wow is going to be wonderful!!

Although I am delighted personally the impact of interest rates to the economy is likely to be horrendous. High interest rates will drive away the investors from stock market towards debt market, drying the opportunities that prevailed in the capital market for companies to raise low cost equity funding for their operations and future expansions. Alternatively companies will now have to resort to borrowed capital which will significantly reduce the future profitability and corporate earnings. This will further have a significant impact on the stock valuations and market capitalization. Will stock market slump further!! ASI 4000??... only time will tell us.

b) Sri Lankan Rupee devaluation

You hear every where, that Sri Lankan Rupees is likely to be devalued soon!!. Some say its 5% others say its by 20%. This apparently to reduce the pressure on Sri Lanka's Foreign currency reserves and resultant high interest rates. Whatever is the case, this is likely to have sever impact to the economy. Can devaluation of the rupee could solve the current crisis. To me, answer is no !!! Sri Lanka is a import driven economy and any devaluation in of the rupee is likely to have a significant impact on inflation (The Cost Push Inflation) and intern the cost of production and services of all companies and industries. Among our imports Crude oil remain one of the biggest import cost to the country and any notable increase is likely to have a significant impact to all sectors of the country including high depended Transport, Electricity, manufacturing sectors.

c) Iran Crisis.

Crude oil crisis is far more than a domestic problem. Sri Lanka imports significant component of oil from Iran. I guess its over 90% of total imported to Sri Lanka. This is as a result of generous credit period offered by the Iran. Under the current crisis and impeding embargo's Sri Lanka will be compelled to purchase oil from alternative sources. Further if Iran proceed with its own embargo's then it is likely to that world crude oil prices will reach record high resulting in sever crisis across the world.

What is good to buy and what is not!!

Banks
I would buy Banks. Coz bank would be a beneficiary in an high interest rate environment due to higher interest spread. Commercial Bank, HNB, NDB and Sampath seems quite attractive.
Hotels
I would buy hotels coz as a result of Rupee devaluation Sri Lankan hotels would cheaper and more attractive to the foreigners. Rupee earnings of hotels are likely to increase resulting in higher corporate earnings.
Motor
I would sell out of Motor Trading Companies such as DIMO, United Motors, Sathota, Colonial etc coz high fuel cost and depreciation of the rupee will reduce the short to medium term demand for motor vehicles. High interest rates also will dicourage people from taking leases.
Plantations
Significant component of Sri Lanka's tea is exported to Iran, Syria and to other arab countries. Any benefit we are likely to derive from the devaluation of the rupee is going to be off set by the likely reduction in demand for tea from Iran, Syria and Middle Eastern Countries due anticipated crisis. So I will not touch tea. But natural rubber is likely to be high in demand as a result of the higher cost of artificial rubber due to expected increase of crude oil. Good luck for rubber plantation.

Above post is a personal opinion of the writer based on current local and global events purported to be affecting the Stock Market and should under no circumstances be considered as Research or Recommendation to buy or sell shares



Last edited by Quibit on Sat Feb 11, 2012 8:49 am; edited 1 time in total

LateTackle

LateTackle
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Any comment on property stocks (CT Land, OSEA etc..) will they benefit with the devaluation ?

Will banks having large bond portfolios have reduced profit?

What will be the effect of IFRS on plantation stock ?

(Comments made to be thought provoking)

greedy007


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Hotels may be a good move.

anubis


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Quibit: I suppose these are your personal thoughts?

It's very suspicious because normally you don't give BUY / SELL recommendations.... scratch

Carolis


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@anubis wrote:@Quibit: I suppose these are your personal thoughts?

It's very suspicious because normally you don't give BUY / SELL recommendations.... scratch
I'm also having the same question?

Roboticfx

Roboticfx
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Anyway, I'm happy to see a post like this posted by quibit. Usually she is silent. Very Happy

dilshanusjp


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Dear Quibit

How do you say ASI will hit 4000.Will it possible?Can ASI breaks 5000 level? Sad

WildBear


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
We had interest rates at more than 18% for some period before 2009, and stock market down hill. This was the exact time when most foreigners and local HNWI bought stocks and later sold in 2010-2011, so history repeats and people like you ready to sell down till ASI down to 4000; then I,m more than happy to buy such attractive stocks as It s highly likely that they can end up with multi baggers when the cycle reverses. I don,t think we will be able to enjoy high interest rates for longer period.

anubis


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Out of curiosity, is "Quibit" a single person's identity or that of a collective / company? If it's the latter, that would explain the variation of posts.

(@Robiticfx: how do you know it's a "she"?)

In any case, I'm not against promotions / demotions / opinions (specially if they are backed by sensible arguments like this one). Just found this one interesting since it's coming from the site admin.

Cheers!

rishanpossitive


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Most of the big admins here represent different people,I would say Quibit is a well paid man. Roboticfx one of his backup guys.

K.Haputantri

K.Haputantri
Co-Admin
I appreciate your views Quibit, brcause they are backed by facts. Your views are helpfull for us to think and decide. Keep it up.

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
Points to be noted.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

WildBear


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@anubis wrote:Out of curiosity, is "Quibit" a single person's identity or that of a collective / company? If it's the latter, that would explain the variation of posts.

(@Robiticfx: how do you know it's a "she"?)

In any case, I'm not against promotions / demotions / opinions (specially if they are backed by sensible arguments like this one). Just found this one interesting since it's coming from the site admin.

Cheers!

We Should not forget that, This forum is a Business, and all the Administrators/Moderators have a role to play in order to satisfy their stakeholders/shareholders/managers. Some times the posts of Administrators/Moderators may reflect the opinions/wishers of the stakeholders/share holders etc. At the same time all readers should understand that one person can have many accounts and at the same there are may be many people behind one user name.

However it's always good to have different ideas to discuss for a better readership. In above topic Quibit has some valid points, If we can get risk free 15 % p.a. gain why we should take risks specially when the Global Economic picture is gloomy ?

Please read the following extracts of a research article.


LONDON (Reuters): Gold prices have been too volatile to play a reliable role as a hedge against inflation, a study of financial assets over the past 112 years showed on Tuesday.
While inflation does not reduce gold’s real value, it has no yield or income flow and the precious metal has given a far lower long-term return than equities.

In the period since 1900, gold gave a real return of 1.1 per cent in sterling terms and its value fluctuated widely, the study published by Credit Suisse and London Business School’s Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton.

“Gold is the only asset that does not have its real value reduced by inflation. It has a potential role in the portfolio of a risk-averse investor concerned about inflation,” it said.
“However, this asset does not provide an income flow and has generated low real returns over the long term. Gold can fail to provide a positive real return over extended periods.”
The report said global equities, the best performers among different assets since the start of the 20th century with a 5.4 per cent annualised return, beat inflation in the long run.
However, their returns may be more the result of equity risk premium, the reward for holding risky assets instead of risk-free government securities, than rising inflation.
Looking at the relationship between real return and inflation, the research found that equities were not that sensitive to inflation, compared with inflation linked bonds.
For example, a rate of inflation that is 10 per cent higher is associated with a real equity return that is lower by 5.2 per cent.
When the inflation rate was at least 18 per cent, equities suffered a loss of 12 per cent on a real basis. Bonds were worse, suffering a loss of over 23 per cent.
“Equities are at best a partial hedge against inflation; their nominal returns tend to be higher during inflation, but not by a large enough margin to ensure that real returns completely resist inflation,” the research said.
“Although equities are thought to provide a hedge against inflation, their capacity to do so is limited. While inflation clearly harms the real value of bonds and cash, equities are not immune.”
Inflation-linked bonds have the highest sensitivity to inflation but their yields have fallen in the past few years, providing little contribution to investors wanting to achieve a positive return over the period from investment to maturity.
Equities by far provided the best real return in the 1900-2011 period. Bonds returned 1.7 per cent, while bills gave 0.9 per cent on an annualised basis.
The study also found that investors enjoy gains in equities in markets where currencies have weakened, lending support to a “buy on weakness” strategy. For bonds, the picture was less clear.
“Equities can prosper after currency weakness through higher corporate cash flows and earnings, which may be boosted by increased competitiveness and export opportunities,” it said.

http://www.ft.lk/2012/02/10/gold-not-a-reliable-inflation-hedge-study/

In Sri Lanka experience, Equities out performed other asseet classes in past 30 years as well as past 3 years.

greedy

greedy
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
For more clarification of interest rates. NTB special rates are...
5 year (at maturity) - 16.00% p.a.
6 year (at maturity) - 16.00% p.a.
5 & 6 year (monthly paid) - 11.00% p.a.

So someone to earn this interest, he/she has to lock their funds in fixed deposits for a period of five or six years!! Won't equity market (CSE) out perform all other assets in 5 years time frame?

K.Haputantri

K.Haputantri
Co-Admin
@WildBear wrote:In Sri Lanka experience, Equities out performed other asseet classes in past 30 years as well as past 3 years.

I consider the Sri Lanka experience as an exception, solely driven by factors out-side fundamandals. Its emense growth during the past three years is clearly out-of-propotion with the growth of earnings of companies and the GDP. "Rain of money" (from where no one knows) just after the end of the war triggerred the upword trend but it was difficult to sustain such abnormal hights once the "rain of money" ceased. Many poor investors were cought in between unawares in the rat race. No one should expect similar trends in the near future. This is the bitter truth.

Therefore, investor education is the key to success of the share market in the future. That is why I appreciate the post of Quibit which can guide the investors asfer in to the arena of stock market.

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
@K.Haputantri wrote:
@WildBear wrote:In Sri Lanka experience, Equities out performed other asseet classes in past 30 years as well as past 3 years.

I consider the Sri Lanka experience as an exception, solely driven by factors out-side fundamandals. Its emense growth during the past three years is clearly out-of-propotion with the growth of earnings of companies and the GDP. "Rain of money" (from where no one knows) just after the end of the war triggerred the upword trend but it was difficult to sustain such abnormal hights once the "rain of money" ceased. Many poor investors were cought in between unawares in the rat race. No one should expect similar trends in the near future. This is the bitter truth.

Therefore, investor education is the key to success of the share market in the future. That is why I appreciate the post of Quibit which can guide the investors asfer in to the arena of stock market.

There is a quote, may be give a clear picture of the past.(2009-2011)

"There’s a strange thing goes on inside a bubble. It’s hard to describe. People who are in it can’t see outside of it, don’t believe there is an outside."
Lucy Prebble

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

K.Haputantri

K.Haputantri
Co-Admin
Very true Shri, but many do not understand the reality. That is where continous education is necessary.

Tiger

Tiger
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
I am not so bearish, once exchange rate etabilises will buy more. Hopefully by third week of Feb. However I think that Greece will leave Euro in March-April causing ripples around the world, the impact of which to SL would be flight of capital out of SL. Sanctions on Iran can cause further devaluation of rupee, I believe that in a free ex-rate policy environment market will factor that in advance before it happens.

I am cautiously optimistic on CSE, the down turn below 6000 is another round of panicking and opportunity.

rijayasooriya

rijayasooriya
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@WildBear wrote:
@anubis wrote:Out of curiosity, is "Quibit" a single person's identity or that of a collective / company? If it's the latter, that would explain the variation of posts.

(@Robiticfx: how do you know it's a "she"?)

In any case, I'm not against promotions / demotions / opinions (specially if they are backed by sensible arguments like this one). Just found this one interesting since it's coming from the site admin.

Cheers!

We Should not forget that, This forum is a Business, and all the Administrators/Moderators have a role to play in order to satisfy their stakeholders/shareholders/managers. Some times the posts of Administrators/Moderators may reflect the opinions/wishers of the stakeholders/share holders etc. At the same time all readers should understand that one person can have many accounts and at the same there are may be many people behind one user name.

However it's always good to have different ideas to discuss for a better readership. In above topic Quibit has some valid points, If we can get risk free 15 % p.a. gain why we should take risks specially when the Global Economic picture is gloomy ?
Well...Well...Well....I almost agree with ur opinion but let me correct ur opinion of "all the moderators have a role to play in order to satisfy their stakeholders/shareholders/managers" as ALL the moderators do not have to play a such a role .
(This does not mean that some moderators have a role to play bla bla bla.....but as I do not know about all the moderators,to be in the saferside Wink I mention it like that.)

Kumar

Kumar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
[quote="rijayasooriya
Well...Well...Well....I almost agree with ur opinion but let me correct ur opinion of "all the moderators have a role to play in order to satisfy their stakeholders/shareholders/managers" as ALL the moderators do not have to play a such a role .
(This does not mean that some moderators have a role to play bla bla bla.....but as I do not know about all the moderators,to be in the saferside Wink I mention it like that.)[/quote]

I too agree with Rijay.

Quibit

Quibit
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
First real reaction to the impending crisis outlined in my post. What can we expect on Monday trading?

Oil prices will be revised from tonight but concessions will be given to pvt and public transport and fishery sectors- Govt info - adaderana.lk

Liter of petrol increased by Rs 12, diesel by Rs 31, Kerosene by Rs 35 with effect from midnight today- Ministry of Petroleum- adaderana.lk

lokuayya


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
fuel price hike will cause huge inflation.even 15% interest rate would not be enough .after some time money has no value.
best option may be property ,or property rich shares,

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Greedy is right.. only 5 year deposits look promising at the moment.

What if you buy shares cheaper in this market? It will give u 100% return in 5 years as oppose to these FD rates..

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
Fuel price hike will definitely lead the country to devaluation.
May be in month time.
No choice after CB stopped defending the Rupee.

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

rishanpossitive


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Time to go to road. Twisted Evil Twisted Evil

Tiger

Tiger
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@rishanpossitive wrote:Time to go to road. Twisted Evil Twisted Evil

To live? I suppose there would be many to follow you.

rishanpossitive


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Tiger wrote:
@rishanpossitive wrote:Time to go to road. Twisted Evil Twisted Evil

To live? I suppose there would be many to follow you.

No friend,For revolution.That's the only way market can go up.

Kumar

Kumar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@rishanpossitive wrote:
@Tiger wrote:
@rishanpossitive wrote:Time to go to road. Twisted Evil Twisted Evil

To live? I suppose there would be many to follow you.

No friend,For revolution.That's the only way market can go up.

Revolution in Srilanka Hahahahaha......
You are dreaming.
We need to have the guts for any action or reaction.

sapumal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
15% is only for senior persons, we can't get that. Am I correct ?

Kumar

Kumar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Further to Quibits 3 points the following point make much weight in the investments in Srilanka.
Please read the following news in dailymirror.lk



Police and political parties most corrupt, survey reveals
SATURDAY, 11 FEBRUARY 2012 18:09
According to a survey by Transparency International (TI) nearly 50% of Sri Lankans believed that the police and political parties in the country were the most corrupt institutions in the country.

In April 2011, 1000 people were interviewed from Sri Lanka and other countries in the South Asian including India, Nepal, Pakistan, Maldives and Bangladesh to determine the level of corruption in each country.

The survey showed that the people had the least amount of confidence in services provided by the police. The survey showed that there was a dire lack of confidence in the services provided by other government departments.

“Apart from the lack of confidence of the people in the police system, the survey also indicates that in Sri Lanka corruption was most prevalent in the Inland Revenue Department, Customs Department and land services such as divisional secretaries, kachcheries, pradeshiya saba, the Land Registrar’s Department and other such government services,” a TI Spokesman Shan Wijeytunge said.

This list was followed by the judiciary and education and health care services. Out of those who were interviewed 23% said they had to pay a bribe in order to obtain a particular service.

The overall results of the research in South Asia showed that corruption in government departments were highest in Bangladesh at 66% and the lowest in Maldives at 6%. (Olindhi Jayasundere)

Don't you feel shame?



Last edited by Kumar on Sat Feb 11, 2012 11:24 pm; edited 1 time in total

UKboy

UKboy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@rishanpossitive wrote:
@Tiger wrote:
@rishanpossitive wrote:Time to go to road. Twisted Evil Twisted Evil

To live? I suppose there would be many to follow you.

No friend,For revolution.That's the only way market can go up.

Ammo Brother I beg you. Please do NOT go for a picketing. It will make things worse. Sad

Tiger

Tiger
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Kumar wrote:
@rishanpossitive wrote:
@Tiger wrote:
@rishanpossitive wrote:Time to go to road. Twisted Evil Twisted Evil

To live? I suppose there would be many to follow you.

No friend,For revolution.That's the only way market can go up.

Revolution in Srilanka Hahahahaha......
You are dreaming.
We need to have the guts for any action or reaction.

Revolution? Truth of the matter is we are still a very poor country because of this revolutionists who emerged from time to time since 1948. Revolutions cannot create wealth only Education, Discipline and Hardwork can create wealth.

Anyway please explain "For revolution.That's the only way market can go up", this. I may be not seen what you mean. If certain revolutionary actions can send markets up I would certainly rally with you.

මාර්කට් එක වහාම උඩ යවපියව්. (support from me)

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
@Tiger wrote:
@Kumar wrote:
@rishanpossitive wrote:
@Tiger wrote:
@rishanpossitive wrote:Time to go to road. Twisted Evil Twisted Evil

To live? I suppose there would be many to follow you.

No friend,For revolution.That's the only way market can go up.

Revolution in Srilanka Hahahahaha......
You are dreaming.
We need to have the guts for any action or reaction.

Revolution? Truth of the matter is we are still a very poor country because of this revolutionists who emerged from time to time since 1948. Revolutions cannot create wealth only Education, Discipline and Hardwork can create wealth.

Anyway please explain "For revolution.That's the only way market can go up", this. I may be not seen what you mean. If certain revolutionary actions can send markets up I would certainly rally with you.

මාර්කට් එක වහාම උඩ යවපියව්. (support from me)


Revolutions cannot create wealth only Education, Discipline and Hardwork can create wealth.


1000 times agree with you.
Thanks.

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

rijayasooriya

rijayasooriya
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
කොහොම උනත් දැන් හැමෝටම වගේ කෙලවිලා තියෙන බව නම් පේනවා

CSE.SAS

CSE.SAS
Global Moderator
In addition to the above, please read this article published in Sundaytimes 12-02-2012(tomorrow).

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t15808-sri-lanka-newspapers-sunday-12-02-2012#103328


Why am I so pessimistic about Sri Lanka's Equity Market Epaper11

Sri Lanka's upscale business community has put a damper on any buoyancy in economic growth this year with a new poll expressing concern over the deteriorating local and international business climate in 2012.

According to a Business Outlook Survey 2012 issued by the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce (CCC) in January, the situation regarding two critical areas - decision to invest this year and the economic environment - worsened in December 2011 against July 2011 when the previous study was done.

Respondents were asked whether they will invest, will not invest or are undecided. In December, 62 % said they will invest, down from 74% in July; 15% said they will not invest up from 8% while 23% were undecided against 18% (July). Asked about the economic environment in Sri Lanka for the next 12 months, 63% of the respondents said there was no change against 43% in July while only 21% said there had been an improvement against 57% earlier.

The internal survey, a copy of which the Business Times received unofficially, was aimed at obtaining an independent assessment of the business environment and the challenges encountered by Sri Lankan corporates. It covered key business sectors in Sri Lanka from Agriculture, Industry and Services such as Agriculture, Agro Processing, Banking & Finance, Food & Beverages, IT & BPO, FMCG, Plantation, Retail, Travel & Tourism, etc and was addressed to the business leaders covering SMEs to MNCs.

The mood worsened after notorious expropriation laws were introduced. Respondents asked for their perception of these laws, voted "Not Favourable (73%), Favourable (4%) and No Impact (23%)". Then asked about reconsideration of the business/investment decision based on these laws, 33% said they will reconsider, 40% said NO while 27% were undecided. Another revealing statistic was the ranking given to most positive (factors) and most negative factors. While there was hardly any change (from July to December) in the most positive factors (on a 1-5 scorecard) and comprising peaceful environment, improved infrastructure, cost of finance, improved access to finance and more transparent and consistent, the most negative ranking saw 'Abrupt/adhoc changes to laws and regulations' move one notch up to 1st place from 2nd place in July.

On average consumer prices, 69% of the respondents said it will increase (33% in July) while 31% said there was no change against 67%, six months ago. On interest rates, 51% said no change (95% earlier) while 47% said it would increase (3% earlier). The survey quoted 58% of the respondents saying salaries and wages in industry will rise (56% earlier), while industry profits would decline (27% respondents vs 55% earlier). On global economic conditions for the next 12 months, 2% of the respondents said it would improve, down from 14%; 29% said it would decline (47%earlier) while 57% said no change (51% earlier).

Commenting on the results of this survey, top economist, Prof. Sirimal Abeyratne from the University of Colombo said, the results were interesting but not surprising. He said there was a gloomy global economic outlook with the Euro crisis no more a crisis in the Euro Zone, but in the global economy.
He said the business environment of Sri Lanka needs to be strengthened through a reform process, but in practice it appears to have got damaged.

"Although the government's main policy document - Mahinda Chintana - presents a beautiful economic vision and conceptualization about the medium-term achievements of the Sri Lankan economy, there has been a huge vacuum in the mission and action plan. In certain instances, in fact, we could observe policy reversals as well as ad hoc policy changes, sending negative signals to the business community.
The business community wishes to see the policy direction of the country and, consistency and predictability of the policy environment," he said. A few bankers and industrialists polled by the Business Times had this to say:

- In addition to the macro economic issues, policy reversal is also a problem.
- Sri Lanka should have depreciated its currency two years ago and now the situation has worsened as the government failed to keep to its promises in the IMF SBA deal (flexible exchange rate policy/break-even in CEB and CPC)
- The market understands the situation much better (than the government) and is aware that the interest rates and foreign exchange rates are artificial.
- Policy reversals: the pensions pull back, the crates issue reversal, private university bill withdrawal and the expropriation law issues have sent negative signals and conflicting signals. The country can't attract investment under this environment.
http://sundaytimes.lk/120212/BusinessTimes/bt01.html

rishanpossitive


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Tiger wrote:
@Kumar wrote:
@rishanpossitive wrote:
@Tiger wrote:
@rishanpossitive wrote:Time to go to road. Twisted Evil Twisted Evil

To live? I suppose there would be many to follow you.

No friend,For revolution.That's the only way market can go up.

Revolution in Srilanka Hahahahaha......
You are dreaming.
We need to have the guts for any action or reaction.

Revolution? Truth of the matter is we are still a very poor country because of this revolutionists who emerged from time to time since 1948. Revolutions cannot create wealth only Education, Discipline and Hardwork can create wealth.

Anyway please explain "For revolution.That's the only way market can go up", this. I may be not seen what you mean. If certain revolutionary actions can send markets up I would certainly rally with you.

මාර්කට් එක වහාම උඩ යවපියව්. (support from me)

REVOLUTION TO KICK OUT _ _

Kumar

Kumar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@rishanpossitive wrote:
@Tiger wrote:
@Kumar wrote:
@rishanpossitive wrote:
@Tiger wrote:
@rishanpossitive wrote:Time to go to road. Twisted Evil Twisted Evil

To live? I suppose there would be many to follow you.

No friend,For revolution.That's the only way market can go up.

Revolution in Srilanka Hahahahaha......
You are dreaming.
We need to have the guts for any action or reaction.

Revolution? Truth of the matter is we are still a very poor country because of this revolutionists who emerged from time to time since 1948. Revolutions cannot create wealth only Education, Discipline and Hardwork can create wealth.

Anyway please explain "For revolution.That's the only way market can go up", this. I may be not seen what you mean. If certain revolutionary actions can send markets up I would certainly rally with you.

මාර්කට් එක වහාම උඩ යවපියව්. (support from me)

REVOLUTION TO KICK OUT _ _

Still dreaming is not prohibited in Sri Lanka no?

LateTackle

LateTackle
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@smallville wrote:Greedy is right.. only 5 year deposits look promising at the moment.

What if you buy shares cheaper in this market? It will give u 100% return in 5 years as oppose to these FD rates..


If you buy at the correct time, I remember JKH at 60 and NDB at 70 your return will be more than 300% FD returns will never give you that type of return, if you want to make big money you have to wait for these blessings in diguise.

Every dark cloud has a silver lining. Idea Like a Star @ heaven

Quibit

Quibit
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
This is why I was so pessimistic about the Sri Lanka's Stock Market.
Look at the change.

A) Sri Lankan rupee already down to Rs 122
B) Interest rate is still on it's way up 12.5% offed by NTB for 3 months and 16% offered by Pan Asia for 5 year.
C) Petrol, Diesel and Kerosine have hit the roof to be followed by LPG.
D) electricity tariff up 40% and bus fares up considerably.
E) ASI reached below 5,000 during trading.
F) inflation doom to be double digit

What's is next!!!
Higher corporate And income tax?

FXX

FXX
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
LOLC Securities Research Report suggested banks as a good buy and the other good news is speculative shares going down but foreigners are collecting fundamentally strong blue chip companies, investing 50 on FD's and 50 on bank shares seems good option but finding the bottom of the market seems not easy

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