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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Expert Chamber » Good shares ? Time to analyze and post findings. Open invitation to all.

Good shares ? Time to analyze and post findings. Open invitation to all.

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Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
This is a follow up on my below post
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19816-some-thoughts-on-cse-market-situation-at-present


Most seniors, fundamental analysts, tech analysts , pattern readers who where once active in the forum is staying away due to the great bear trend and micro/macro factors. We rarely see good discussions now a days. Most items are news related.


We know many would have got burnt to their skin specially those who where playing with speculative shares like GREG,REEF, HVA,EAST,PAP, RGEM etc etc. Some blue chips which were overvalued were not spared. A bitter experience coupled with more negative news is even keeping the strongest of the lot who survived so far to seek safer havens. Whoever has money left would have chosen to move what their remaining investments to FDs,treasury bills , high yielding savings with lesser risk and sure gain.

But let me draw your attention to another side. The once over blown and over heated ASI, MPI corrected from 7800 to 4700 and 4200 respectively. This is a massive drop. In the meantime many shares have corrected and over corrected their value. We see shares with PEs of lesser than 5 ,
below NAV, below IPO. Even the shares which were done at bargain private placement and offered at over priced IPO prices are nearing those placement targets. Speculative have blown their hot air out.

When the daily volumes started to dry up and the sellers are now selling their bargain priced shares with lesser tendency/volume it is a decent sign that the bear is slowly tiring. We recently hit the lowest turnover in 3 years! When the strongest of those survived the bear also starts leaving, it is another sign that the so called "dumb money" ( no offence) is leaving and the smart money starts coming in. I am not saying the bear trend has ended. NO.There can be sudden drops due to weak mentality . But I see no reason why ASI should drop below 4500 -4700. But IT CAN as none of us have a magic ball in our hands to predict. But all I can say is one's losses is this bear is going to be another's longer term gain. Some possibly by 50-200% with time. Easily it will beat the FD rates hand down when it happens. FD,Treasury rates cannot go up for ever. It has to start stabilizing and coming down at some point.

This forum is small representation of the CSE. The mentalities , the participation , the promotion type posts disappearing, the unnecessary arguments are all part of the frustration. The bear was/is still laughing. Bull is on vacation. The consolidation is what we should see now.

If we try to identify the market bottom we might miss the bus. At some point there will be a sudden few days of hikes and those people who expected it again to drop might not be so lucky.
See below
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19797-it-is-really-much-better-than-few-weeks-back-level

All this time foriegner where slowly collecting. They only collected shares with higher caps like JKH,DIST,COMB,DFCC,CFIN etc.
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19562-foreign-purchase-and-sales-june-2012

But note there are so many other shares which trade with much stronger fundamentals and also has hidden forces that can drive them sky high during a bull. What are those shares? What are the hidden asset shares?

For the Long term investors:

I invite the seniors, analysts and anybody with enthusiam to come join and post their share analysis. But please post with reasons. This is the time to analyse. Time to analyze is NOT when the bull starts and when the forum is flooded with promotional posts with 1 line target prices. Those posts will be useless to figure out what to buy as the speculative cycle will begin with them and the risk factor will be higher.

Those who stay away from market will miss trading opportunities at least. During june itself some share gained 30-40% from the bottom.


Also below will be good reads for the above discussion

1)http://www.lbo.lk/fullstory.php?nid=1657744509
2)http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19552-if-the-fundamentals-are-sound-the-stock-price-is-bound-to-recover
3) http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19808-double-bottom?highlight=double+bottom
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19520-double-bottom?highlight=double+bottom


I/we welcome your posts and analysis. Loosen you shackles , open your eyes, try to be ahead of the pack!

All the best.

ccsentha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
GLAS seems a good pick, what do u think guys? They are monopoly, buy the problem is fuel cost.....

ccsentha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
can they venture into export sector also?

ccsentha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
VONE seems good when considering fundamentals, but 00 foreign owners, why is it?

ccsentha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Friend in your opinion what are the shares worth buying?

and in your opinion what are the penny shares which can go up by 5 fold?

@slstock wrote:This is a follow up on my below post
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19816-some-thoughts-on-cse-market-situation-at-present


Most seniors, fundamental analysts, tech analysts , pattern readers who where once active in the forum is staying away due to the great bear trend and micro/macro factors. We rarely see good discussions now a days. Most items are news related.


We know many would have got burnt to their skin specially those who where playing with speculative shares like GREG,REEF, HVA,EAST,PAP, RGEM etc etc. Some blue chips which were overvalued were not spared. A bitter experience coupled with more negative news is even keeping the strongest of the lot who survived so far to seek safer havens. Whoever has money left would have chosen to move what their remaining investments to FDs,treasury bills , high yielding savings with lesser risk and sure gain.

But let me draw your attention to another side. The once over blown and over heated ASI, MPI corrected from 7800 to 4700 and 4200 respectively. This is a massive drop. In the meantime many shares have corrected and over corrected their value. We see shares with PEs of lesser than 5 ,
below NAV, below IPO. Even the shares which were done at bargain private placement and offered at over priced IPO prices are nearing those placement targets. Speculative have blown their hot air out.

When the daily volumes started to dry up and the sellers are now selling their bargain priced shares with lesser tendency/volume it is a decent sign that the bear is slowly tiring. We recently hit the lowest turnover in 3 years! When the strongest of those survived the bear also starts leaving, it is another sign that the so called "dumb money" ( no offence) is leaving and the smart money starts coming in. I am not saying the bear trend has ended. NO.There can be sudden drops due to weak mentality . But I see no reason why ASI should drop below 4500 -4700. But IT CAN as none of us have a magic ball in our hands to predict. But all I can say is one's losses is this bear is going to be another's longer term gain. Some possibly by 50-200% with time. Easily it will beat the FD rates hand down when it happens. FD,Treasury rates cannot go up for ever. It has to start stabilizing and coming down at some point.

This forum is small representation of the CSE. The mentalities , the participation , the promotion type posts disappearing, the unnecessary arguments are all part of the frustration. The bear was/is still laughing. Bull is on vacation. The consolidation is what we should see now.

If we try to identify the market bottom we might miss the bus. At some point there will be a sudden few days of hikes and those people who expected it again to drop might not be so lucky.
See below
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19797-it-is-really-much-better-than-few-weeks-back-level

All this time foriegner where slowly collecting. They only collected shares with higher caps like JKH,DIST,COMB,DFCC,CFIN etc.
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19562-foreign-purchase-and-sales-june-2012

But note there are so many other shares which trade with much stronger fundamentals and also has hidden forces that can drive them sky high during a bull. What are those shares? What are the hidden asset shares?

For the Long term investors:

I invite the seniors, analysts and anybody with enthusiam to come join and post their share analysis. But please post with reasons. This is the time to analyse. Time to analyze is NOT when the bull starts and when the forum is flooded with promotional posts with 1 line target prices. Those posts will be useless to figure out what to buy as the speculative cycle will begin with them and the risk factor will be higher.

Those who stay away from market will miss trading opportunities at least. During june itself some share gained 30-40% from the bottom.


Also below will be good reads for the above discussion

1)http://www.lbo.lk/fullstory.php?nid=1657744509
2)http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19552-if-the-fundamentals-are-sound-the-stock-price-is-bound-to-recover
3) http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19808-double-bottom?highlight=double+bottom
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19520-double-bottom?highlight=double+bottom


I/we welcome your posts and analysis. Loosen you shackles , open your eyes, try to be ahead of the pack!

All the best.

soileconomy

soileconomy
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
This company owns the following company shares through its subsidiary
(1) JKH
(2)COMB
(3)HNB
(4)DFCC
(5)MADU
(6)BALA
(7)Unlisted insurance company
(8)Unlisted telecommunication company
(9) more than 40% of SPEN.
(10) Recently got approval from CBSL as a Finance CVompany.

Controls over 80% of beverage market.........

soileconomy

soileconomy
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@ccsentha wrote:GLAS seems a good pick, what do u think guys? They are monopoly, buy the problem is fuel cost.....

and foreign currency loans???.....
They are already in the export market , but at this moment not so good their exports to EURO Zone.But Foreign currency earnings may cushion the drop of market in exports.

Their Land in Rathmalana will be sold and may be considered to settle bank loans(FCY loans)

If Energy prices go up
IF their export market share comes down
If they cant settle their FCY loans before maturity,
If they Rathmalana land does not get sold.

Even ,
GLASS is worth at this level

Nick79


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
my Pikings

GLAS ,GRAN ,LOLC ,KAGAL,KOTA ,COLO ,TWOD

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Great start to the discussion. This is the kind of a start we for a good analysis. This conglomerate
which is hidden under the "beverage" sector also is due to get some compensation from the government isn;t it? Trading at PE of about 6 and around NAV. Foreigner are already onto collecting it.


@soileconomy wrote:This company owns the following company shares through its subsidiary
(1) JKH
(2)COMB
(3)HNB
(4)DFCC
(5)MADU
(6)BALA
(7)Unlisted insurance company
(8)Unlisted telecommunication company
(9) more than 40% of SPEN.
(10) Recently got approval from CBSL as a Finance CVompany.

Controls over 80% of beverage market.........

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@soileconomy wrote:This company owns the following company shares through its subsidiary
(1) JKH
(2)COMB
(3)HNB
(4)DFCC
(5)MADU
(6)BALA
(7)Unlisted insurance company
(8)Unlisted telecommunication company
(9) more than 40% of SPEN.
(10) Recently got approval from CBSL as a Finance CVompany.

Controls over 80% of beverage market.........

LMF ? Smile
Go the Cornhuskers !!!

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Yes if they can settle their foriegn currency loans this can be easily 10% dividend company for the future. With the beverage sector also going on rise with the tourists arrivals and the major monopoly this is a share which should be under radar. Also note there is Rs 0.36 dividend due already, That about 7% from current price. Better than NEST dividend yield at current price.

@soileconomy wrote:
@ccsentha wrote:GLAS seems a good pick, what do u think guys? They are monopoly, buy the problem is fuel cost.....

and foreign currency loans???.....
They are already in the export market , but at this moment not so good their exports to EURO Zone.But Foreign currency earnings may cushion the drop of market in exports.

Their Land in Rathmalana will be sold and may be considered to settle bank loans(FCY loans)

If Energy prices go up
IF their export market share comes down
If they cant settle their FCY loans before maturity,
If they Rathmalana land does not get sold.

Even ,
GLASS is worth at this level

aliasjjj

aliasjjj
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@soileconomy wrote:This company owns the following company shares through its subsidiary
(1) JKH
(2)COMB
(3)HNB
(4)DFCC
(5)MADU
(6)BALA
(7)Unlisted insurance company
(8)Unlisted telecommunication company
(9) more than 40% of SPEN.
(10) Recently got approval from CBSL as a Finance CVompany.

Controls over 80% of beverage market.........

http://www.dcslgroup.com/investor_operations.aspx
Question Idea

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
you do not have to be a technical , or fundamental analyst to reply here. Only thing I request is that you say why you pick those shares to avoid any controversies of promotion ( the negative crowd will say you are promoting if you do not say why)

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
ccentha due to admin reasons I will refrain from quoting just share names without giving reasons.
I used to do some share analysis in detail in good old days. But due to so much of personal/professional work/ restrictions my time is really limited now to go research articles.
When I see a share name mentioned by others , if time permits I will try to contribute if I have anythign extra to say.

But to start some of your answer to penny stock will lie in below IPO , below NAV shares. Some other penny stock can be identified as growth. There are some conglomerates ( made and in making) in penny category now.



@ccsentha wrote:Friend in your opinion what are the shares worth buying?

and in your opinion what are the penny shares which can go up by 5 fold?

@slstock wrote:This is a follow up on my below post
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19816-some-thoughts-on-cse-market-situation-at-present


Most seniors, fundamental analysts, tech analysts , pattern readers who where once active in the forum is staying away due to the great bear trend and micro/macro factors. We rarely see good discussions now a days. Most items are news related.


We know many would have got burnt to their skin specially those who where playing with speculative shares like GREG,REEF, HVA,EAST,PAP, RGEM etc etc. Some blue chips which were overvalued were not spared. A bitter experience coupled with more negative news is even keeping the strongest of the lot who survived so far to seek safer havens. Whoever has money left would have chosen to move what their remaining investments to FDs,treasury bills , high yielding savings with lesser risk and sure gain.

But let me draw your attention to another side. The once over blown and over heated ASI, MPI corrected from 7800 to 4700 and 4200 respectively. This is a massive drop. In the meantime many shares have corrected and over corrected their value. We see shares with PEs of lesser than 5 ,
below NAV, below IPO. Even the shares which were done at bargain private placement and offered at over priced IPO prices are nearing those placement targets. Speculative have blown their hot air out.

When the daily volumes started to dry up and the sellers are now selling their bargain priced shares with lesser tendency/volume it is a decent sign that the bear is slowly tiring. We recently hit the lowest turnover in 3 years! When the strongest of those survived the bear also starts leaving, it is another sign that the so called "dumb money" ( no offence) is leaving and the smart money starts coming in. I am not saying the bear trend has ended. NO.There can be sudden drops due to weak mentality . But I see no reason why ASI should drop below 4500 -4700. But IT CAN as none of us have a magic ball in our hands to predict. But all I can say is one's losses is this bear is going to be another's longer term gain. Some possibly by 50-200% with time. Easily it will beat the FD rates hand down when it happens. FD,Treasury rates cannot go up for ever. It has to start stabilizing and coming down at some point.

This forum is small representation of the CSE. The mentalities , the participation , the promotion type posts disappearing, the unnecessary arguments are all part of the frustration. The bear was/is still laughing. Bull is on vacation. The consolidation is what we should see now.

If we try to identify the market bottom we might miss the bus. At some point there will be a sudden few days of hikes and those people who expected it again to drop might not be so lucky.
See below
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19797-it-is-really-much-better-than-few-weeks-back-level

All this time foriegner where slowly collecting. They only collected shares with higher caps like JKH,DIST,COMB,DFCC,CFIN etc.
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19562-foreign-purchase-and-sales-june-2012

But note there are so many other shares which trade with much stronger fundamentals and also has hidden forces that can drive them sky high during a bull. What are those shares? What are the hidden asset shares?

For the Long term investors:

I invite the seniors, analysts and anybody with enthusiam to come join and post their share analysis. But please post with reasons. This is the time to analyse. Time to analyze is NOT when the bull starts and when the forum is flooded with promotional posts with 1 line target prices. Those posts will be useless to figure out what to buy as the speculative cycle will begin with them and the risk factor will be higher.

Those who stay away from market will miss trading opportunities at least. During june itself some share gained 30-40% from the bottom.


Also below will be good reads for the above discussion

1)http://www.lbo.lk/fullstory.php?nid=1657744509
2)http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19552-if-the-fundamentals-are-sound-the-stock-price-is-bound-to-recover
3) http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19808-double-bottom?highlight=double+bottom
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19520-double-bottom?highlight=double+bottom


I/we welcome your posts and analysis. Loosen you shackles , open your eyes, try to be ahead of the pack!

All the best.

ccsentha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
FLCH, BIL those two??

is there anything else?

@slstock wrote:ccentha due to admin reasons I will refrain from quoting just share names without giving reasons.
I used to do some share analysis in detail in good old days. But due to so much of personal/professional work/ restrictions my time is really limited now to go research articles.
When I see a share name mentioned by others , if time permits I will try to contribute if I have anythign extra to say.

But to start some of your answer to penny stock will lie in below IPO , below NAV shares. Some other penny stock can be identified as growth. There are some conglomerates ( made and in making) in penny category now.



@ccsentha wrote:Friend in your opinion what are the shares worth buying?

and in your opinion what are the penny shares which can go up by 5 fold?

@slstock wrote:This is a follow up on my below post
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19816-some-thoughts-on-cse-market-situation-at-present


Most seniors, fundamental analysts, tech analysts , pattern readers who where once active in the forum is staying away due to the great bear trend and micro/macro factors. We rarely see good discussions now a days. Most items are news related.


We know many would have got burnt to their skin specially those who where playing with speculative shares like GREG,REEF, HVA,EAST,PAP, RGEM etc etc. Some blue chips which were overvalued were not spared. A bitter experience coupled with more negative news is even keeping the strongest of the lot who survived so far to seek safer havens. Whoever has money left would have chosen to move what their remaining investments to FDs,treasury bills , high yielding savings with lesser risk and sure gain.

But let me draw your attention to another side. The once over blown and over heated ASI, MPI corrected from 7800 to 4700 and 4200 respectively. This is a massive drop. In the meantime many shares have corrected and over corrected their value. We see shares with PEs of lesser than 5 ,
below NAV, below IPO. Even the shares which were done at bargain private placement and offered at over priced IPO prices are nearing those placement targets. Speculative have blown their hot air out.

When the daily volumes started to dry up and the sellers are now selling their bargain priced shares with lesser tendency/volume it is a decent sign that the bear is slowly tiring. We recently hit the lowest turnover in 3 years! When the strongest of those survived the bear also starts leaving, it is another sign that the so called "dumb money" ( no offence) is leaving and the smart money starts coming in. I am not saying the bear trend has ended. NO.There can be sudden drops due to weak mentality . But I see no reason why ASI should drop below 4500 -4700. But IT CAN as none of us have a magic ball in our hands to predict. But all I can say is one's losses is this bear is going to be another's longer term gain. Some possibly by 50-200% with time. Easily it will beat the FD rates hand down when it happens. FD,Treasury rates cannot go up for ever. It has to start stabilizing and coming down at some point.

This forum is small representation of the CSE. The mentalities , the participation , the promotion type posts disappearing, the unnecessary arguments are all part of the frustration. The bear was/is still laughing. Bull is on vacation. The consolidation is what we should see now.

If we try to identify the market bottom we might miss the bus. At some point there will be a sudden few days of hikes and those people who expected it again to drop might not be so lucky.
See below
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19797-it-is-really-much-better-than-few-weeks-back-level

All this time foriegner where slowly collecting. They only collected shares with higher caps like JKH,DIST,COMB,DFCC,CFIN etc.
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19562-foreign-purchase-and-sales-june-2012

But note there are so many other shares which trade with much stronger fundamentals and also has hidden forces that can drive them sky high during a bull. What are those shares? What are the hidden asset shares?

For the Long term investors:

I invite the seniors, analysts and anybody with enthusiam to come join and post their share analysis. But please post with reasons. This is the time to analyse. Time to analyze is NOT when the bull starts and when the forum is flooded with promotional posts with 1 line target prices. Those posts will be useless to figure out what to buy as the speculative cycle will begin with them and the risk factor will be higher.

Those who stay away from market will miss trading opportunities at least. During june itself some share gained 30-40% from the bottom.


Also below will be good reads for the above discussion

1)http://www.lbo.lk/fullstory.php?nid=1657744509
2)http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19552-if-the-fundamentals-are-sound-the-stock-price-is-bound-to-recover
3) http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19808-double-bottom?highlight=double+bottom
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19520-double-bottom?highlight=double+bottom


I/we welcome your posts and analysis. Loosen you shackles , open your eyes, try to be ahead of the pack!

All the best.

aliasjjj

aliasjjj
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Can Any one Provide a list of
Companies Trading Below NAV
Trading Below IPO price.
Companies with Strong growth potential.(May Be Currently Loss Making)

I know this is not a fair Request. I must have do my own analysis rather than asking your hardly analyzed date. anyway I am thinking of collecting RICH,PLC,CABO,EXPO,FLCH,VONE,BIL,CLC

WildBear


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
I would pick some stocks from different sectors which I think have strong fundamentals with good management and most importantly they can be bought at a price below their NAV at current market price, and dividend yield above 5 % or potential to give Higher dividends in future. Share your opinion,

Energy- LGL-x,HPWR
Finance and Banks- COMB-X, HNB-X ,PLC, LOLC
Diversified- SHL,VONE, FLCH, RHL-x
Textile- TJL
Manufacturing- ACL, TKYO-x, TYRE, CIND
Property- CTLD,CSD.

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@ SLSTOCK, my top ten picks in no particular order of importance are as follows :

1. BUKI (Rs. 750) – owns approx 63 % of GoodHope Asia Holdings and 45 % of Carsons. GoodHope Asia is a world class, fully integrated Palm Oil company in the food sector. Buki is trading at under 10 times earnings and 65 % of adjusted NAV. Its palm oil sector business is overseas and will not be affected by Sri-Lankan macro issues. We can expect 30 % CAGR in profits in the future due to their plantation maturity profile and demand / supply fundamentals of Palm Oil pricing. Please also refer previous posts in regard to Buki and their websites www.goodhopeasia.com and www.premiumveg.com

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t18950-can-goodhope-asia-holdings-buki-cars-subsidiary-become-a-future-felda?highlight=buki

2. CINV / GUAR - Trading at approx 60 % their NAV with a strong exposure to BUKI (63 % of their portfolio value), JKH, COMM BANK. Rest of portfolio comprises blue chips such as NEST, CARGILLS, EXPO, DURDANS, ASIRI, TOKYO, PLC, AITKEN SPENSE HOTELS, etc.
more info on thread :
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t17433-exchange-rate-and-palm-oil-prices-impact-cars-buki?highlight=buki

3. CIT/CFI - great exposure to the CFLB Group. Owns approx 25 % of CFLB which in turn owns COLO, EBCREASY, LANKEM , KOTA, ETC. Trading at approx 50 % of their NAV. Pls also refer thread :
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19060-this-is-what-i-know-about-cflb-what-do-you-know-share?highlight=cflb

4. NDB – trading at 5-6 times trailing earnings.

5. RENUKA CITY HOTELS (RENU) - Trading at approx Rs 200 / share, RENU has Rs 175 Cash, Rs 175 equity portfolio comprising of 1 : 1 DFCC, COMM Bank,NTB & JKH & a Property / Hotel business which is profitable. NAV between Rs 400-450 and share price around Rs. 200. Value proposition is hard to beat.

6. Richard Peiris (RICH) - A diversified conglomerate penny stock (in your own words ?!) with exposure to plantations (NAMU, KGAL), Property, Retail and Manufacturing. Trading under 5 times trailing earnings. Perhaps out of favour due to excess liquidity created by 15 : 1 split last year. Low P/E stocks could give you a decent dividend yield too. Also NAMU has good exposure to Palm Oil and KGAL leader in Rubber.

7. DOCKYARD (DOCK) – Cash rich company with strong balance sheet. Trading at 7-8 times trailing earnings with ship buidling / repair order book full upto 2014/2015. Strong Japanese management ownership and technical knowhow. Well poised to benefit from Sri-Lanka’s port developments / shipping hub / oil discovery future.

8. LMF – A play on DIST ! However way you look at it, LMF owns 12.85 % or approx 38 mill shares in DIST on its own issued shares of 40 Million. So, almost 1 : 1 value on DIST at 35-40 % discount to DIST price. LMF will act as a in the money call option on DIST which is trading at approx 6-7 times trailing earnings. Now, Melstacorp, a 100 % subsidiary of DIST will have to make a mandatory offer to purchase LMF shares. Thus, LMF, which currently owns 12.85 % of MELSTACORP via DIST will be owned by Melstacorp. This cross holding loop will in effect create infinity value to LMF.and lets not forget about LMF Dairy business and Farms, Largest milk powder packing plant is south east asia etc. If you consider look-through earnings through DIST, LMF EPS is over Rs. 20 so trading under 5 times earnings. If you mark to market DIST Shares, LMF trading at 50 % NAV.

9. DIMO – Engineering giant, with valuable TATA (& Merc) Agency. The BATTA is selling like hotcakes. Trading at 2 times trailing earnings & maybe trading at 5 times forward earnings ?

10. PLC – subsidiary of Peoples Bank. Trading at 3-4 times trailing earnings and good dividend yield. Future business will be impacted due to current macro issues but state patronage in their leasing business will cushion them somewhat. Best of peers in the leasing space consisting of LOLC & CFIN.

Some other shares worth looking into for the future are : CFIN, CEYLON COLD STORES, CIC (NV), HEMAS, EXPO, VONE, RHL, ALLI, CT HOLDINGS, DIALOG and HNB (NV).

In the speculative share category, the following shares have many reasons to appreciate in the future : HUNTERS, GREG, ECL, LVEN, BFL, LIOC, MORI (NV).

Kumar

Kumar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@The Alchemist wrote:@ SLSTOCK, my top ten picks in no particular order of importance are as follows :

1. BUKI (Rs. 750) – owns approx 63 % of GoodHope Asia Holdings and 45 % of Carsons. GoodHope Asia is a world class, fully integrated Palm Oil company in the food sector. Buki is trading at under 10 times earnings and 65 % of adjusted NAV. Its palm oil sector business is overseas and will not be affected by Sri-Lankan macro issues. We can expect 30 % CAGR in profits in the future due to their plantation maturity profile and demand / supply fundamentals of Palm Oil pricing. Please also refer previous posts in regard to Buki and their websites www.goodhopeasia.com and www.premiumveg.com

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t18950-can-goodhope-asia-holdings-buki-cars-subsidiary-become-a-future-felda?highlight=buki

2. CINV / GUAR - Trading at approx 60 % their NAV with a strong exposure to BUKI (63 % of their portfolio value), JKH, COMM BANK. Rest of portfolio comprises blue chips such as NEST, CARGILLS, EXPO, DURDANS, ASIRI, TOKYO, PLC, AITKEN SPENSE HOTELS, etc.
more info on thread :
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t17433-exchange-rate-and-palm-oil-prices-impact-cars-buki?highlight=buki

3. CIT/CFI - great exposure to the CFLB Group. Owns approx 25 % of CFLB which in turn owns COLO, EBCREASY, LANKEM , KOTA, ETC. Trading at approx 50 % of their NAV. Pls also refer thread :
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19060-this-is-what-i-know-about-cflb-what-do-you-know-share?highlight=cflb

4. NDB – trading at 5-6 times trailing earnings.

5. RENUKA CITY HOTELS (RENU) - Trading at approx Rs 200 / share, RENU has Rs 175 Cash, Rs 175 equity portfolio comprising of 1 : 1 DFCC, COMM Bank,NTB & JKH & a Property / Hotel business which is profitable. NAV between Rs 400-450 and share price around Rs. 200. Value proposition is hard to beat.

6. Richard Peiris (RICH) - A diversified conglomerate penny stock (in your own words ?!) with exposure to plantations (NAMU, KGAL), Property, Retail and Manufacturing. Trading under 5 times trailing earnings. Perhaps out of favour due to excess liquidity created by 15 : 1 split last year. Low P/E stocks could give you a decent dividend yield too. Also NAMU has good exposure to Palm Oil and KGAL leader in Rubber.

7. DOCKYARD (DOCK) – Cash rich company with strong balance sheet. Trading at 7-8 times trailing earnings with ship buidling / repair order book full upto 2014/2015. Strong Japanese management ownership and technical knowhow. Well poised to benefit from Sri-Lanka’s port developments / shipping hub / oil discovery future.

8. LMF – A play on DIST ! However way you look at it, LMF owns 12.85 % or approx 38 mill shares in DIST on its own issued shares of 40 Million. So, almost 1 : 1 value on DIST at 35-40 % discount to DIST price. LMF will act as a in the money call option on DIST which is trading at approx 6-7 times trailing earnings. Now, Melstacorp, a 100 % subsidiary of DIST will have to make a mandatory offer to purchase LMF shares. Thus, LMF, which currently owns 12.85 % of MELSTACORP via DIST will be owned by Melstacorp. This cross holding loop will in effect create infinity value to LMF.and lets not forget about LMF Dairy business and Farms, Largest milk powder packing plant is south east asia etc. If you consider look-through earnings through DIST, LMF EPS is over Rs. 20 so trading under 5 times earnings. If you mark to market DIST Shares, LMF trading at 50 % NAV.

9. DIMO – Engineering giant, with valuable TATA (& Merc) Agency. The BATTA is selling like hotcakes. Trading at 2 times trailing earnings & maybe trading at 5 times forward earnings ?

10. PLC – subsidiary of Peoples Bank. Trading at 3-4 times trailing earnings and good dividend yield. Future business will be impacted due to current macro issues but state patronage in their leasing business will cushion them somewhat. Best of peers in the leasing space consisting of LOLC & CFIN.

Some other shares worth looking into for the future are : CFIN, CEYLON COLD STORES, CIC (NV), HEMAS, EXPO, VONE, RHL, ALLI, CT HOLDINGS, DIALOG and HNB (NV).

In the speculative share category, the following shares have many reasons to appreciate in the future : HUNTERS, GREG, ECL, LVEN, BFL, LIOC, MORI (NV).
Reasonable selection.
Thanks mate.

Antonym

Antonym
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@The Alchemist: You have identified the best value investments available. If you are not an equity analyst, you should be! Smile

All your picks have the potential to double (at least) in the next two years... Just out of curiosity, which of these would you rate as your favorite?



Last edited by Antonym on Tue Jul 10, 2012 12:09 am; edited 1 time in total

stumpy

stumpy
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Alchemist

Great Stuff dude!
I'm seeing this type of post after few years Very Happy

soileconomy

soileconomy
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:Great start to the discussion. This is the kind of a start we for a good analysis. This conglomerate
which is hidden under the "beverage" sector also is due to get some compensation from the government isn;t it? Trading at PE of about 6 and around NAV. Foreigner are already onto collecting it.




[/quote]
DIST got Rs 5.6 Bn from government from the suprime court judgement of SLIC.Thought the actual amount is more than that, they got only a lesser amount.Other part I believe was forced to offer to a very powerful politician.
But according to the court decision the retained profit could be accounted by DIST to its P&L .But will it be a mere book entry?
I observe that they are increasing the dividend pay out steadily.This time Rs 3 few years back it was 50 Cents.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Fantastic reasoning and value picking like Antonym mentioned. You seem to have an eye for the good ones and seem to be the patient investor. I like that.

BUKI/CARS is a special stock with some hidden assets as you mentioned. It the rich mans share. It was very much overvalued when it ran to Rs 1600 on speculation but it corrected quite a bit in the down trend. ( now Rs 750). Overall market is getting to attractiv levels. One of these day ( many days maybe month) boom..



@The Alchemist wrote:@ SLSTOCK, my top ten picks in no particular order of importance are as follows :

1. BUKI (Rs. 750) – owns approx 63 % of GoodHope Asia Holdings and 45 % of Carsons. GoodHope Asia is a world class, fully integrated Palm Oil company in the food sector. Buki is trading at under 10 times earnings and 65 % of adjusted NAV. Its palm oil sector business is overseas and will not be affected by Sri-Lankan macro issues. We can expect 30 % CAGR in profits in the future due to their plantation maturity profile and demand / supply fundamentals of Palm Oil pricing. Please also refer previous posts in regard to Buki and their websites www.goodhopeasia.com and www.premiumveg.com

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t18950-can-goodhope-asia-holdings-buki-cars-subsidiary-become-a-future-felda?highlight=buki

2. CINV / GUAR - Trading at approx 60 % their NAV with a strong exposure to BUKI (63 % of their portfolio value), JKH, COMM BANK. Rest of portfolio comprises blue chips such as NEST, CARGILLS, EXPO, DURDANS, ASIRI, TOKYO, PLC, AITKEN SPENSE HOTELS, etc.
more info on thread :
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t17433-exchange-rate-and-palm-oil-prices-impact-cars-buki?highlight=buki

3. CIT/CFI - great exposure to the CFLB Group. Owns approx 25 % of CFLB which in turn owns COLO, EBCREASY, LANKEM , KOTA, ETC. Trading at approx 50 % of their NAV. Pls also refer thread :
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19060-this-is-what-i-know-about-cflb-what-do-you-know-share?highlight=cflb

4. NDB – trading at 5-6 times trailing earnings.

5. RENUKA CITY HOTELS (RENU) - Trading at approx Rs 200 / share, RENU has Rs 175 Cash, Rs 175 equity portfolio comprising of 1 : 1 DFCC, COMM Bank,NTB & JKH & a Property / Hotel business which is profitable. NAV between Rs 400-450 and share price around Rs. 200. Value proposition is hard to beat.

6. Richard Peiris (RICH) - A diversified conglomerate penny stock (in your own words ?!) with exposure to plantations (NAMU, KGAL), Property, Retail and Manufacturing. Trading under 5 times trailing earnings. Perhaps out of favour due to excess liquidity created by 15 : 1 split last year. Low P/E stocks could give you a decent dividend yield too. Also NAMU has good exposure to Palm Oil and KGAL leader in Rubber.

7. DOCKYARD (DOCK) – Cash rich company with strong balance sheet. Trading at 7-8 times trailing earnings with ship buidling / repair order book full upto 2014/2015. Strong Japanese management ownership and technical knowhow. Well poised to benefit from Sri-Lanka’s port developments / shipping hub / oil discovery future.

8. LMF – A play on DIST ! However way you look at it, LMF owns 12.85 % or approx 38 mill shares in DIST on its own issued shares of 40 Million. So, almost 1 : 1 value on DIST at 35-40 % discount to DIST price. LMF will act as a in the money call option on DIST which is trading at approx 6-7 times trailing earnings. Now, Melstacorp, a 100 % subsidiary of DIST will have to make a mandatory offer to purchase LMF shares. Thus, LMF, which currently owns 12.85 % of MELSTACORP via DIST will be owned by Melstacorp. This cross holding loop will in effect create infinity value to LMF.and lets not forget about LMF Dairy business and Farms, Largest milk powder packing plant is south east asia etc. If you consider look-through earnings through DIST, LMF EPS is over Rs. 20 so trading under 5 times earnings. If you mark to market DIST Shares, LMF trading at 50 % NAV.

9. DIMO – Engineering giant, with valuable TATA (& Merc) Agency. The BATTA is selling like hotcakes. Trading at 2 times trailing earnings & maybe trading at 5 times forward earnings ?

10. PLC – subsidiary of Peoples Bank. Trading at 3-4 times trailing earnings and good dividend yield. Future business will be impacted due to current macro issues but state patronage in their leasing business will cushion them somewhat. Best of peers in the leasing space consisting of LOLC & CFIN.

Some other shares worth looking into for the future are : CFIN, CEYLON COLD STORES, CIC (NV), HEMAS, EXPO, VONE, RHL, ALLI, CT HOLDINGS, DIALOG and HNB (NV).

In the speculative share category, the following shares have many reasons to appreciate in the future : HUNTERS, GREG, ECL, LVEN, BFL, LIOC, MORI (NV).

K&M


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
I would definitely collect AEL at this current level looking at their cash flows ND Balance sheet these price levels seems good and in addition to that infrastructure is a main area focused by the government with many more projects to come in the future AEL will definitely have the opportunity to grow at a rapid pace and might become one of the blue chips in the CSE.

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

BTW,
LIOC has been a silent giant for many years now with fundamentals also. Must be one of the most frustrating shares in the market for the holder due to govn influence in its business.
CTholding is a conglomerate for the future. It is a growth share. Right not fundamental wise it is not one of the best. But it certainly has big growth potential with time.


@slstock wrote:Fantastic reasoning and value picking like Antonym mentioned. You seem to have an eye for the good ones and seem to be the patient investor. I like that.

BUKI/CARS is a special stock with some hidden assets as you mentioned. It the rich mans share. It was very much overvalued when it ran to Rs 1600 on speculation but it corrected quite a bit in the down trend. ( now Rs 750). Overall market is getting to attractiv levels. One of these day ( many days maybe month) boom..



@The Alchemist wrote:@ SLSTOCK, my top ten picks in no particular order of importance are as follows :

1. BUKI (Rs. 750) – owns approx 63 % of GoodHope Asia Holdings and 45 % of Carsons. GoodHope Asia is a world class, fully integrated Palm Oil company in the food sector. Buki is trading at under 10 times earnings and 65 % of adjusted NAV. Its palm oil sector business is overseas and will not be affected by Sri-Lankan macro issues. We can expect 30 % CAGR in profits in the future due to their plantation maturity profile and demand / supply fundamentals of Palm Oil pricing. Please also refer previous posts in regard to Buki and their websites www.goodhopeasia.com and www.premiumveg.com

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t18950-can-goodhope-asia-holdings-buki-cars-subsidiary-become-a-future-felda?highlight=buki

2. CINV / GUAR - Trading at approx 60 % their NAV with a strong exposure to BUKI (63 % of their portfolio value), JKH, COMM BANK. Rest of portfolio comprises blue chips such as NEST, CARGILLS, EXPO, DURDANS, ASIRI, TOKYO, PLC, AITKEN SPENSE HOTELS, etc.
more info on thread :
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t17433-exchange-rate-and-palm-oil-prices-impact-cars-buki?highlight=buki

3. CIT/CFI - great exposure to the CFLB Group. Owns approx 25 % of CFLB which in turn owns COLO, EBCREASY, LANKEM , KOTA, ETC. Trading at approx 50 % of their NAV. Pls also refer thread :
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t19060-this-is-what-i-know-about-cflb-what-do-you-know-share?highlight=cflb

4. NDB – trading at 5-6 times trailing earnings.

5. RENUKA CITY HOTELS (RENU) - Trading at approx Rs 200 / share, RENU has Rs 175 Cash, Rs 175 equity portfolio comprising of 1 : 1 DFCC, COMM Bank,NTB & JKH & a Property / Hotel business which is profitable. NAV between Rs 400-450 and share price around Rs. 200. Value proposition is hard to beat.

6. Richard Peiris (RICH) - A diversified conglomerate penny stock (in your own words ?!) with exposure to plantations (NAMU, KGAL), Property, Retail and Manufacturing. Trading under 5 times trailing earnings. Perhaps out of favour due to excess liquidity created by 15 : 1 split last year. Low P/E stocks could give you a decent dividend yield too. Also NAMU has good exposure to Palm Oil and KGAL leader in Rubber.

7. DOCKYARD (DOCK) – Cash rich company with strong balance sheet. Trading at 7-8 times trailing earnings with ship buidling / repair order book full upto 2014/2015. Strong Japanese management ownership and technical knowhow. Well poised to benefit from Sri-Lanka’s port developments / shipping hub / oil discovery future.

8. LMF – A play on DIST ! However way you look at it, LMF owns 12.85 % or approx 38 mill shares in DIST on its own issued shares of 40 Million. So, almost 1 : 1 value on DIST at 35-40 % discount to DIST price. LMF will act as a in the money call option on DIST which is trading at approx 6-7 times trailing earnings. Now, Melstacorp, a 100 % subsidiary of DIST will have to make a mandatory offer to purchase LMF shares. Thus, LMF, which currently owns 12.85 % of MELSTACORP via DIST will be owned by Melstacorp. This cross holding loop will in effect create infinity value to LMF.and lets not forget about LMF Dairy business and Farms, Largest milk powder packing plant is south east asia etc. If you consider look-through earnings through DIST, LMF EPS is over Rs. 20 so trading under 5 times earnings. If you mark to market DIST Shares, LMF trading at 50 % NAV.

9. DIMO – Engineering giant, with valuable TATA (& Merc) Agency. The BATTA is selling like hotcakes. Trading at 2 times trailing earnings & maybe trading at 5 times forward earnings ?

10. PLC – subsidiary of Peoples Bank. Trading at 3-4 times trailing earnings and good dividend yield. Future business will be impacted due to current macro issues but state patronage in their leasing business will cushion them somewhat. Best of peers in the leasing space consisting of LOLC & CFIN.

Some other shares worth looking into for the future are : CFIN, CEYLON COLD STORES, CIC (NV), HEMAS, EXPO, VONE, RHL, ALLI, CT HOLDINGS, DIALOG and HNB (NV).

In the speculative share category, the following shares have many reasons to appreciate in the future : HUNTERS, GREG, ECL, LVEN, BFL, LIOC, MORI (NV).

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Actually i was referring to the SUGA saga compensation soileconomy.


@soileconomy wrote:
@slstock wrote:Great start to the discussion. This is the kind of a start we for a good analysis. This conglomerate
which is hidden under the "beverage" sector also is due to get some compensation from the government isn;t it? Trading at PE of about 6 and around NAV. Foreigner are already onto collecting it.




DIST got Rs 5.6 Bn from government from the suprime court judgement of SLIC.Thought the actual amount is more than that, they got only a lesser amount.Other part I believe was forced to offer to a very powerful politician.
But according to the court decision the retained profit could be accounted by DIST to its P&L .But will it be a mere book entry?
I observe that they are increasing the dividend pay out steadily.This time Rs 3 few years back it was 50 Cents.



Last edited by slstock on Tue Jul 10, 2012 2:09 am; edited 1 time in total

UKboy

UKboy
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:
BTW,
LIOC has been a silent giant for many years now with fundamentals also. Must be one of the most frustrating shares in the market for the holder due to govn influence in its business.

Yes I agree with you.
Few of my friends invested in CSE for 1st time with LIOC IPO.
IPO price was Rs 27 and within few months share price shot up to mid 50s.. There was a huge interest from government and private sector companies. Then slowly and steadily, price has been coming down and as you said its probably one of the worst hit share in the market. Even in 2009/2010 LIOC was going south.

To be honest I'm scared look into LIOC as an investment but time to time there are some trading potentials with this counter.

hunter

hunter
Moderator
Agree with UKBoy on LIOC.

Anyway, now LIOC has become one of my friendly shares.
It has displayed a very predictable swing pattern in the past.

pathfinder

pathfinder
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Slstock-Thank you very much for opening a thread like this,as you can see many are waiting for a such a discussion rather than news items.
@Alchemist-Good collection with a very good analysis.

These are my picks,
RENU,DIST,CINV,PLC,RICH,CFLB,UML

CFLB-A diversified group,trading below it's NAV and PE around 5 once the plantations starts doing well it will shoot up.

UML-At current price PBV below 1 PE around 2,the issue is the tax,I think even with tax it could easily pass 100,nearly 40% gain.

HVA,LITE,PARQ,ACME,LDEV Good for time to time ride.

seek


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
VONE, GLAS, SAMP, BFL at current level

Hawk Eye

Hawk Eye
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
CWM & BFL at the moment.

ccsentha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Hawk Eye wrote:CWM & BFL at the moment.


aren't there any other value stocks other than them??????

Redbulls

Redbulls
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
JKL is also one of the counter to keep on eye.

smallville

smallville
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@Redbulls wrote:JKL is also one of the counter to keep on eye.

Very bad volumes.. climbed from 55.10 to 59 in 5 days Wink Yesterday vol was 1900 as opposed to 100s that normally trade..
Didnt analyse this fundamentally or technically.. Lets see Wink

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

xmart

xmart
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
very good discussion slstock..

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
@xmart wrote:very good discussion slstock..

Welcome back xmart :-)

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

You can also check the small analysis I did on ACL, KCAB, APLA



http://research.srilankaequity.com/t457-acl-kcab-apla

kumarweerarathne

kumarweerarathne
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
YES true .... that all three are well below its NAV and PER also fair so can have a run ...
but unfortunately energy costs will effect manufacture sector very badly in coming season.

shankarramalingam


Stock Trader
Can someone tell me about haycarb- HAYC please.Buy,hold or sell?

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