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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Bairaha Farms - BFL

Bairaha Farms - BFL

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty Bairaha Farms - BFL on Tue Feb 01, 2011 12:39 pm

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
BFL

MarketWatch is not there to push this stock and it seems BFL looks stagnant after the crash of investnow.lk – like a house without the cowboy

2Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty Re: Bairaha Farms - BFL on Tue Feb 01, 2011 12:46 pm

KDS

KDS
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
is it Horse without Cowboy ? ....Lol...

3Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty Re: Bairaha Farms - BFL on Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:09 pm

Bollinger

Bollinger
Stock Trader
So do you think that one persons influence on a website really can push a share price up that much?

4Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty Re: Bairaha Farms - BFL on Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:14 pm

upuldi

upuldi
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
its called profit taking .....

it will pushed back with in a couple of weeks i guess .... if they can announce a split dat would be great...........

5Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty Re: Bairaha Farms - BFL on Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:19 pm

invest-abc


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Unless BFL goes for a split it looks like it want have any momentum to move up as it did previously.

6Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty Re: Bairaha Farms - BFL on Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:34 pm

Rajitha

Rajitha
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Bollinger wrote:So do you think that one persons influence on a website really can push a share price up that much?
Not one person, but there were a huge promoting campaign for these shares. He was just a pawn in it but an important one at that. ( who knows maybe he was a rook or a queen even Very Happy ).
I had a friend of mine come to me asking about how to invest in CSE and how is the share BFL about month back. He had no clue about CSE and asked me as i'm investing in it. The reason is, at his religious place they were told to go buy BFL by two people and that they can earn easy money while helping a GOOD cause. Such was the promotion campaign that went for the poultry rally. Most of the people just know about the MW as that was there only world!!

Edit typos



Last edited by Rajitha on Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:51 pm; edited 1 time in total

7Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty Re: Bairaha Farms - BFL on Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:47 pm

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Obviously... This campaign may not be the sole cause, but it has helped immensely to drive up the prices recently sor some stocks... BFL, PCH , LGL... etc. I am not disputing the fact that they may offer god value, but one has to accept the fact that was a such campaign. He gave good advice...

8Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty Re: Bairaha Farms - BFL on Tue Feb 01, 2011 2:04 pm

econ

econ
Global Moderator
BFL has justifiable reason to price up..
it is reported EPS 10 now.. can be annualized to at least 35.
so current price 460.. PER = 460/35 = 13.. still undervalued in poultry sector..

9Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty Bairaha Farms - BFL on Tue Feb 01, 2011 2:08 pm

ss7097

ss7097
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@econ & other experts,

What price should be according to their Q4 result. Just give me a how we can find it.

10Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty Re: Bairaha Farms - BFL on Tue Feb 01, 2011 2:18 pm

econ

econ
Global Moderator
@ss7097 wrote:@econ & other experts,

What price should be according to their Q4 result. Just give me a how we can find it.

if you take PER for poultry sector as a 15..
then BFL can justify around 15 * 35 = 525..
I am assuming annualized EPS around 35 (last quarter is 10 .. but it may be the highest quarter due to festive season.) .. EPS may be bit higher or lower depending on various factors.
but according to their reports,I firmly believe they can sustain around 35 EPS unless some thing bad happens to chicks.

11Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty Re: Bairaha Farms - BFL on Tue Feb 01, 2011 2:37 pm

TelesHope

TelesHope
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@KDS wrote:is it Horse without Cowboy ? ....Lol...

Swaying Horse without a Jockey bounce

12Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty Re: Bairaha Farms - BFL on Tue Feb 01, 2011 2:47 pm

$$$


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
If You take PE between 15 and 20 and EPS at Rs.35 whcih is fair it still can trade between Rs.525 and Rs 700

13Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty Re: Bairaha Farms - BFL on Tue Feb 01, 2011 2:54 pm

Rajitha

Rajitha
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Just fYI if we take PE of around 30 it can be trading around Rs1000 and PE of 50 means like 1750.

Question is how can you justify buying a share of PE of 15 on poultry sector ( there are sectors that you can invest with less than half this PE)? This is considering the future problems as we clearly saw from foreign imports and bird flue to name a few( If you need more fish price going down comes under the same topic and government setting the max price of chicken low for the election times).

14Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty BFL on Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:00 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
econ's figure of 35 is mostly possible this year.

With the escalating world food prices and with their new ventures EPS may got to 50.00 next year.

In that context BFL is worth even now. No one seems to be in selling pressure. They are cash rich and will be able to go for more attractive ventures.
My only concern is its low Asset value per share.

15Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty Re: Bairaha Farms - BFL on Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:02 pm

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Yeah, but BFL is delicate as a share. One whiff of bird flue and this will be down 30-40%.

16Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty Re: Bairaha Farms - BFL on Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:05 pm

econ

econ
Global Moderator
@Rajitha wrote:Just fYI if we take PE of around 30 it can be trading around Rs1000 and PE of 50 means like 1750.

Question is how can you justify buying a share of PE of 15 on poultry sector ( there are sectors that you can invest with less than half this PE)? This is considering the future problems as we clearly saw from foreign imports and bird flue to name a few( If you need more fish price going down comes under the same topic and government setting the max price of chicken low for the election times).

In my opinion only sector has very low PER is plantation sector.. it has reasons for that..
plantation is always vulnerable to weather,labor,world price etc. in poultry sector only concern is bird flu.. they have a monopoly as many lankans do eat chicken but not start poultry farms due to religious/ethical issues..
chicken imports does not work in Sri Lanka. many consumers fear of Indian chicken products.
government short term measures(price setting/selling by armed forces) does not work either.
Moreover , demand for chicken is increased day by day due to tourist inflow.
so poultry sector PER of 15 is justifiable unless some thing bad happens to chicks(bird flu).

17Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty Re: Bairaha Farms - BFL on Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:05 pm

Rajitha

Rajitha
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:econ's figure of 35 is mostly possible this year.

With the escalating world food prices and with their new ventures EPS may got to 50.00 next year.

In that context BFL is worth even now. No one seems to be in selling pressure. They are cash rich and will be able to go for more attractive ventures.
My only concern is its low Asset value per share.

I'm sorry mate but thats a completely misleading post. The high world food price have no impact on Sri lankan chicken. The raw material for the industry(food and rest) is taken from sri lanka mostly as importing cost 2 much and MAINLY there is a price cap for selling chicken and the are selling at the highest price possible at the moment. Also As even you posted if I can remember right BFL always have there most productive quarter as the year ending one with the festivals. After saying that how can you say you expecting even more earnings for this quarter? PLZ give valid reasons and not just false hope.

18Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty Re: Bairaha Farms - BFL on Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:15 pm

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
I thought BFL makes money by selling precut chicken pieces, which are much more expensive than the government cap, and by supplying the hotels.



Last edited by mono on Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:25 pm; edited 1 time in total

19Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty Re: Bairaha Farms - BFL on Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:18 pm

sapumal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
> I'm sorry mate but thats a completely misleading post.
don't worry about it. different people has different understanding levels. Some people understand the reality of Chinwi's reply but some will not



Last edited by sapumal on Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:00 pm; edited 1 time in total

20Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty Re: Bairaha Farms - BFL on Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:45 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Also As even you posted if I can remember right BFL always have there most productive quarter as the year ending one with the festivals. After saying that how can you say you expecting even more earnings for this quarter? PLZ give valid reasons and not just false hope.

Yes they usually do tend to have the highest quarters during december due to festive season. I am not promopting BFL. Just mentioned facts as I would for any share .

There is potential for future growth due to
1) they have gone for a new Farm with 10 years tax exemptions . More revenue mean more possible profit/
2) into maize cultivation so they can feed the chicks... ( cost saving)

Ofcouse poultry sector is vulnerable to external factors just like plantations. So BFL is no exception in that regard. We should also monitor each quarter.

21Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty Re: Bairaha Farms - BFL on Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:28 pm

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
The best part about the BFL madness came when Tubal made a comment about bird flu, Lol. the poor guy got jumped on.

22Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty Re: Bairaha Farms - BFL on Tue Feb 01, 2011 5:36 pm

$$$


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Well EPS of 35 is on target and demand far out weighs supply....this will only increase. I think it's very realistic to expect BFL to settle around Rs. 600 or more....they have invested in new venttures as well. since they are debt free and cash rich they can look at looking in to more ventures or sharing the good times with the share holders via a bonus issue, something to keep in mind however is external shock like bird flu etc . at these levels it's very attractive.



23Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty Re: Bairaha Farms - BFL on Tue Feb 01, 2011 5:46 pm

$$$


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Rajitha PE of 30 and 50 means the counter is over valued and hence not many people will buy unless there is avery good reason...i.e stellar growth in the form of a take over or a bonus issue etc.

Or a typical PCH scenario....

The facts presented by many including my self PE 15 to 20 with eps of approx Rs.35 is quite reasonable.

Risk is something we all have to take in to account when trading in any security be it internal or external. I also agree that if there is a break out of bird flu yes the chickens will suffer as a result specailly BFL as it is illiquid...Just like Plantations have their wage issues and are effected by weather patterns etc.

24Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty Re: Bairaha Farms - BFL on Tue Feb 01, 2011 5:52 pm

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@mono wrote:The best part about the BFL madness came when Tubal made a comment about bird flu, Lol. the poor guy got jumped on.

Oh yes, mono. I never thanked you for jumping into my rescue.

25Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty Re: Bairaha Farms - BFL on Tue Feb 01, 2011 6:41 pm

$$$


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Exactly what I said in the PCH post....the zombie mentality where everything seems blurred....No sense can be driven in to people who are over whelmed by greed and who are hero worshipping a person or persons....any one seen to be going against theri beleifs are treated as traitors or conspiracy theorists. Tubal and Mono were at the receiving end .....PCH and BFL became a religion and MW was their god...nothing could stand in between.

26Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty Re: Bairaha Farms - BFL on Tue Feb 01, 2011 9:01 pm

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
spot on $$$ , hero worship is not really advisable when it comes to investing! The same can be said about getting married to your stocks. When I started investing a while back, I made that mistake with a few stocks and ended up in a real tight situation. It was simply because I failed to recognize the writing on the wall. I can see quite a few people doing that now.

27Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty Re: Bairaha Farms - BFL on Tue Feb 01, 2011 9:13 pm

mono

mono
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@tubal wrote:spot on $$$ , hero worship is not really advisable when it comes to investing! The same can be said about getting married to your stocks. When I started investing a while back, I made that mistake with a few stocks and ended up in a real tight situation. It was simply because I failed to recognize the writing on the wall. I can see quite a few people doing that now.


My beef is with the term 'expert' and all sycophantic fever that goes with it. it's far healthier to organize a community as a bunch of ordinary people learning how to invest, without having a group of people who are the leader with another group as followers.

28Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty Re: Bairaha Farms - BFL on Tue Feb 01, 2011 11:57 pm

salt

salt
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Whatever it is, people made good money from his advise. He is a person who should in a forum. like that. I feel he is heer too, but in different names.

BFL whatever said, looks risky at this stage. Anyhow, it will be pushed beyond Rs.600

29Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty Re: Bairaha Farms - BFL on Wed Feb 02, 2011 8:59 am

godswen

godswen
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Hey yall, I just poped in man! Should start with a reply to a BFL thread since it's my favorite from 97 rupees! LOL! IMO I think BFL will stay at this level for sometime and will move on, but better look at GRAN at these levels! People are still buying at 210+

Btw I'm having a paper at 2 so have to go! :/ Wish me luck yall! afro

30Bairaha Farms - BFL Empty Re: Bairaha Farms - BFL on Tue Feb 08, 2011 6:15 pm

themask

themask
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Are they hit by floods? where is their maize cultivation?

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