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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » CIFL aiyo salli?

CIFL aiyo salli?

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1 CIFL aiyo salli? on Mon Mar 11, 2013 2:16 pm

troy

avatar
Moderator
Whats going on? The BIG seller is going on and on... how much does he left with??
Will this downfall end??

2 Re: CIFL aiyo salli? on Mon Mar 11, 2013 2:42 pm

Slstock

avatar
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
CIFL is oversold now . But that does not matter if someone i s keen to dispose . If this market remains like this ( no real upward activity overall) CIFL can head to Rs 2.5 and even Rs 2.

CIFL NAV was something to consider( but there are many shares at 0.5 NAV) , but that last quarter loss of over Rs 1 for a Share which was Rs 4 was far too much. Usually penny stock make losses of few cent or Rs 0.1 . Rs 1 is shocking.


I can't remember how many times from last year itself I personally told CIFL has serious issues and was not a share to hold. It is only good for trading. Only consolation is this gets easily pushed up during runs as we have seen before. But again if that does not happen soon this can drop 20-30% further.

Unless there is some serious restructuring and cash inflow, I find CIFL is a risky share to hold. More importanly if you have FDs be watchful where the company is heading in the next 2 quarters.



@troy wrote:Whats going on? The BIG seller is going on and on... how much does he left with??
Will this downfall end??

3 Re: CIFL aiyo salli? on Mon Mar 11, 2013 3:30 pm

Chinwi

avatar
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
An year ago , after the IPO days lot of people wearing CIFL T shirts were seen everywhere offering 24% interest for the new deposits.

Non of them knew anything about the situation faced by pre-IPO depositors .

If this company is continuing to drain its cash like this, what will happen to the money deposited by the latest set of intelligent people ?
( No point of talking about shareholders)

4 Re: CIFL aiyo salli? on Mon Mar 11, 2013 3:39 pm

Arena


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
I think Initial owners will sell sell the company to a cash rich company.

Is laugh looking for financial institution ?

5 Re: CIFL aiyo salli? on Mon Mar 11, 2013 3:43 pm

Slstock

avatar
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
I know they even called people continously ( a nuisance) using agents promoting the company with high interest rates.

Even my elderly mother was a target to a sweet talking girl. Thankfully I warned her much and anyway she wasn't considering anything . But these sweet talking girls must have attracted some people I guess.

CIFL is 45 year old company . Should not be at this level now. :-(



I remember Okanda finance offering 20-30% at times. When a company is offering too good to be true interest rate one needs to watch out.




@Chinwi wrote:An year ago , after the IPO days lot of people wearing CIFL T shirts were seen everywhere offering 24% interest for the new deposits.

Non of them knew anything about the situation faced by pre-IPO depositors .

If this company is continuing to drain its cash like this, what will happen to the money deposited by the latest set of intelligent people ?
( No point of talking about shareholders)

6 CIFL aiyo salli? on Mon Mar 11, 2013 9:57 pm

Janaka Gunathilake


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
CIFL prices are going down as they are going to change management

7 Re: CIFL aiyo salli? on Tue Mar 12, 2013 7:29 am

Fresher


Moderator
What is their joint venture investment? According to the notes, that has a significant contribution (almost half) to the interest income

8 Re: CIFL aiyo salli? on Tue Mar 12, 2013 11:28 am

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Old saying, buying commodities at closing down sale is very cheaper. But people should be caution with what commodity they are buying. I guess CIFL also in its closing down sale....Smile

9 Re: CIFL aiyo salli? on Tue Mar 12, 2013 11:58 am

rainmaker


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
npp wrote:What is their joint venture investment? According to the notes, that has a significant contribution (almost half) to the interest income

There was a real estate project in Homagama. ASPIC (major shareholder) of CIFL was advised to buy CIFL's portion out. The buyout is very expensive.

http://www.cifl.lk/product/real_estate.html

10 Re: CIFL aiyo salli? on Tue Mar 12, 2013 2:46 pm

sanju351

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Jana1 wrote:Old saying, buying commodities at closing down sale is very cheaper. But people should be caution with what commodity they are buying. I guess CIFL also in its closing down sale....Smile

what ever information ma getting am sharing some times we are also been fooled by others ..everyone should do her his own home work

That is why i called all concern fellows my self - you all can call CIFL HDQ 0114419419 & 0112698888 -
But Jana should have had to clarify the forum why he has mentioned such a serious post if he was not 90% - he stated this is as company closing sale - its very serious and bad as it is totally fabricated story .

CIFL does not have such ideas at all according to their top management they are going in for a major re structuring in the coming months by April end everything will be stable they said !! .

11 Re: CIFL aiyo salli? on Tue Mar 12, 2013 3:06 pm

Slstock

avatar
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Jana1, do you have any confirmed news that CIFL is closigndown or is this your idea. If it is your idea only do not make such statements. There are people here who is burned to skin with CIFL just like PCH, TWOD, GREG.

All of these shares have one thing in common. No real consistent cash generation and due to that they are prone to speculation and stories.


@Jana1 wrote:Old saying, buying commodities at closing down sale is very cheaper. But people should be caution with what commodity they are buying. I guess CIFL also in its closing down sale....Smile

12 Re: CIFL aiyo salli? on Tue Mar 12, 2013 3:47 pm

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:Jana1, do you have any confirmed news that CIFL is closigndown or is this your idea. If it is your idea only do not make such statements. There are people here who is burned to skin with CIFL just like PCH, TWOD, GREG.

All of these shares have one thing in common. No real consistent cash generation and due to that they are prone to speculation and stories.


@Jana1 wrote:Old saying, buying commodities at closing down sale is very cheaper. But people should be caution with what commodity they are buying. I guess CIFL also in its closing down sale....Smile
@ slstock

I didn't say that they are going to close down their business with any information, I simply mentioned people to be more cautioned who more interested in buying CIFL due to its current nature. Read my comment "I guess" means no fact but future is more questionable. Even I have no intention to say that they are going to close...Smile

I considered below basic facts,

1) Why owner is selling his company if that has future value? - I remember some guys mentioned even the broker company at which he is selling.

2)How could 1 finance company's operating profit could be lost?
I can see two proxies for CIFL, 1) the finance- still survive with government interest. 2) Vanik saga- dead.

3)If that is operating profit shows lost can they break through even if they change their strategy within short time (less than year)? Operating lost means they need more OD it will increase its finance cost finally ended up with debenture as no room for rights.No backing from any parent companies. I believe the big rumour is changing strategy-not sure.

4) As their lost is about 1.4 PER which is 20-25 % of their current asset and the possibility of lost making would be exponentially increase in next quarters for finance companies as their interest expenses increases. Investors should work out how this could be possible- As they gave high interest rate to FD during last year, the present opportunity for highest loan interest is not possible as interest rate came down. So they are making operating lost and this could possible for at-least 3 quarters as most of FD is above 1 year. With loosing market in leasing (however impact is less to CIFL) how could they break through?

@slstock based on da above facts do you think investing in this company is advisable?


13 Re: CIFL aiyo salli? on Tue Mar 12, 2013 4:06 pm

Slstock

avatar
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Jana1,

I have warned the forum over many months about CIFL. Very much before this crisis. If one search the forum they will see.


I requested you to clarify as people like Sanju has directed his finger at yout comment and they are many people in the forum who has burnt over this even after so much warning. Now they must be in serious heart ache.

As CIFL is manipulated easily and has run over RS 10several times they keep their hopes up and buy this when is pushed up without even knowing what they are doing.


ACtually , until CIFL officially comes up with a plan to restructure , this shares is dangerous. As it is oversold ti can move a bit with a push. But if some big seller comes ... your guess is good as mine.

FD holders need to be very watchfull too.




@Jana1 wrote:
@slstock wrote:Jana1, do you have any confirmed news that CIFL is closigndown or is this your idea. If it is your idea only do not make such statements. There are people here who is burned to skin with CIFL just like PCH, TWOD, GREG.

All of these shares have one thing in common. No real consistent cash generation and due to that they are prone to speculation and stories.


@Jana1 wrote:Old saying, buying commodities at closing down sale is very cheaper. But people should be caution with what commodity they are buying. I guess CIFL also in its closing down sale....Smile
@ slstock

I didn't say that they are going to close down their business with any information, I simply mentioned people to be more cautioned who more interested in buying CIFL due to its current nature. Read my comment "I guess" means no fact but future is more questionable. Even I have no intention to say that they are going to close...Smile

I considered below basic facts,

1) Why owner is selling his company if that has future value? - I remember some guys mentioned even the broker company at which he is selling.

2)How could 1 finance company's operating profit could be lost?
I can see two proxies for CIFL, 1) the finance- still survive with government interest. 2) Vanik saga- dead.

3)If that is operating profit shows lost can they break through even if they change their strategy within short time (less than year)? Operating lost means they need more OD it will increase its finance cost finally ended up with debenture as no room for rights.No backing from any parent companies. I believe the big rumour is changing strategy-not sure.

4) As their lost is about 1.4 PER which is 20-25 % of their current asset and the possibility of lost making would be exponentially increase in next quarters for finance companies as their interest expenses increases. Investors should work out how this could be possible- As they gave high interest rate to FD during last year, the present opportunity for highest loan interest is not possible as interest rate came down. So they are making operating lost and this could possible for at-least 3 quarters as most of FD is above 1 year. With loosing market in leasing (however impact is less to CIFL) how could they break through?

@slstock based on da above facts do you think investing in this company is advisable?


14 Re: CIFL aiyo salli? on Tue Mar 12, 2013 4:36 pm

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Sorry about that.. I can understand the pain of losing investors..

But my intention was to warn fresh investors who was about to buy at this price level.


@slstock wrote:Jana1,

I have warned the forum over many months about CIFL. Very much before this crisis. If one search the forum they will see.


I requested you to clarify as people like Sanju has directed his finger at yout comment and they are many people in the forum who has burnt over this even after so much warning. Now they must be in serious heart ache.

As CIFL is manipulated easily and has run over RS 10several times they keep their hopes up and buy this when is pushed up without even knowing what they are doing.


ACtually , until CIFL officially comes up with a plan to restructure , this shares is dangerous. As it is oversold ti can move a bit with a push. But if some big seller comes ... your guess is good as mine.

FD holders need to be very watchfull too.




@Jana1 wrote:
@slstock wrote:Jana1, do you have any confirmed news that CIFL is closigndown or is this your idea. If it is your idea only do not make such statements. There are people here who is burned to skin with CIFL just like PCH, TWOD, GREG.

All of these shares have one thing in common. No real consistent cash generation and due to that they are prone to speculation and stories.


@Jana1 wrote:Old saying, buying commodities at closing down sale is very cheaper. But people should be caution with what commodity they are buying. I guess CIFL also in its closing down sale....Smile
@ slstock

I didn't say that they are going to close down their business with any information, I simply mentioned people to be more cautioned who more interested in buying CIFL due to its current nature. Read my comment "I guess" means no fact but future is more questionable. Even I have no intention to say that they are going to close...Smile

I considered below basic facts,

1) Why owner is selling his company if that has future value? - I remember some guys mentioned even the broker company at which he is selling.

2)How could 1 finance company's operating profit could be lost?
I can see two proxies for CIFL, 1) the finance- still survive with government interest. 2) Vanik saga- dead.

3)If that is operating profit shows lost can they break through even if they change their strategy within short time (less than year)? Operating lost means they need more OD it will increase its finance cost finally ended up with debenture as no room for rights.No backing from any parent companies. I believe the big rumour is changing strategy-not sure.

4) As their lost is about 1.4 PER which is 20-25 % of their current asset and the possibility of lost making would be exponentially increase in next quarters for finance companies as their interest expenses increases. Investors should work out how this could be possible- As they gave high interest rate to FD during last year, the present opportunity for highest loan interest is not possible as interest rate came down. So they are making operating lost and this could possible for at-least 3 quarters as most of FD is above 1 year. With loosing market in leasing (however impact is less to CIFL) how could they break through?

@slstock based on da above facts do you think investing in this company is advisable?


15 Re: CIFL aiyo salli? on Tue Mar 12, 2013 6:20 pm

knockknobbler


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I don't think there is any point in discussing , Business Plan ,financial performance, Balance Sheet strength ,future prospects of this type of companies. No investor will touch these.
Like SEMB, BLUE, GREG-W, ...etc, these are the turf of Traders. When You are Trading , ll there are certain rules you have to observe, but the issues you all are discussing above, is immaterial for a Trader.

16 Re: CIFL aiyo salli? on Tue Mar 12, 2013 6:29 pm

Slstock

avatar
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
You think SEMB is that bad? Did you notice some improvement over the last few quarters?

Also Dr Senthil must have done some study to invest that much. Having a reputed investor in the company is something to consider. It better than not havign one.


Anyway SEMB is the only share below Rs 1 right now. It is too liquid after the warrant and right issues.





@knockknobbler wrote:I don't think there is any point in discussing , Business Plan ,financial performance, Balance Sheet strength ,future prospects of this type of companies. No investor will touch these.
Like SEMB, BLUE, GREG-W, ...etc, these are the turf of Traders. When You are Trading , ll there are certain rules you have to observe, but the issues you all are discussing above, is immaterial for a Trader.

17 Re: CIFL aiyo salli? on Tue Mar 12, 2013 7:45 pm

Jana1


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Yes SEMB cannot be in that category. But I don't think it improved its bottom line. It was making profit 2009 there after it failed, any improvement is zigzag through out the years. For banking sector this looks over valued share.As per Dr. senthil, he even invested in TFC and Lcem. For him these investments are just peanut and he may not expect much turnaround, if it turns he will push the price and sell it, so his profit from turn around one could compensate the loosing company even it goes bankrupt. Without knowing his strategy, it would be risky to follow sum1.

@slstock wrote:You think SEMB is that bad? Did you notice some improvement over the last few quarters?

Also Dr Senthil must have done some study to invest that much. Having a reputed investor in the company is something to consider. It better than not havign one.


Anyway SEMB is the only share below Rs 1 right now. It is too liquid after the warrant and right issues.





@knockknobbler wrote:I don't think there is any point in discussing , Business Plan ,financial performance, Balance Sheet strength ,future prospects of this type of companies. No investor will touch these.
Like SEMB, BLUE, GREG-W, ...etc, these are the turf of Traders. When You are Trading , ll there are certain rules you have to observe, but the issues you all are discussing above, is immaterial for a Trader.

18 Re: CIFL aiyo salli? on Tue Mar 12, 2013 9:16 pm

gamaya


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Even bad companies can have rallies.

Sometimes we may inadvertantly contribute by condemning a share for certain parties to collect at very low levels.

19 Re: CIFL aiyo salli? on Wed Mar 13, 2013 3:56 am

Slstock

avatar
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Less than 1 million to 62 million profit increase is something. Can they continue the trend this year is what is to be watched.

Like Gamaya said any company can have its day when it is listed at CSE. Whether to trade or invest is another decision.


@Jana1 wrote:Yes SEMB cannot be in that category. But I don't think it improved its bottom line. It was making profit 2009 there after it failed, any improvement is zigzag through out the years. For banking sector this looks over valued share.As per Dr. senthil, he even invested in TFC and Lcem. For him these investments are just peanut and he may not expect much turnaround, if it turns he will push the price and sell it, so his profit from turn around one could compensate the loosing company even it goes bankrupt. Without knowing his strategy, it would be risky to follow sum1.

@slstock wrote:You think SEMB is that bad? Did you notice some improvement over the last few quarters?

Also Dr Senthil must have done some study to invest that much. Having a reputed investor in the company is something to consider. It better than not havign one.


Anyway SEMB is the only share below Rs 1 right now. It is too liquid after the warrant and right issues.





@knockknobbler wrote:I don't think there is any point in discussing , Business Plan ,financial performance, Balance Sheet strength ,future prospects of this type of companies. No investor will touch these.
Like SEMB, BLUE, GREG-W, ...etc, these are the turf of Traders. When You are Trading , ll there are certain rules you have to observe, but the issues you all are discussing above, is immaterial for a Trader.

20 Re: CIFL aiyo salli? on Wed Mar 13, 2013 7:29 am

knockknobbler


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:You think SEMB is that bad? Did you notice some improvement over the last few quarters?
Also Dr Senthil must have done some study to invest that much. Having a reputed investor in the company is something to consider. It better than not havign one.
Anyway SEMB is the only share below Rs 1 right now. It is too liquid after the warrant and right issues.

I am not saying SEMB is "that bad ". I am looking at the broader picture.
Look at the industry and the industry segment, companies like SEMB are in.
# There are 30 odd listed companies in this financial services ( leasing, hire purchase, private loans ,dealings in property ...) . all are at cut throat competition to attract deposits as well as to grant loans/ leases.
# Since Banks, established finance companies like CFIN ,LFIN are also competing in this market segment, these companies have to offer high rates to attract deposits and they are left over with a client base at the high risk end.
# most of the companies are not having a track record or the backing of a financial heavyweight ( except few like CFIN, LFIN, VFIN , PLC ... ) and are subject to severe strains , if there is rise in interest rates .
#most pressing issue is that the company is subject t collapse overnight, if there is a "run" and subsequent collapse of any one company in the industry.

An investor who is looking for stabity, growth, and returns on a long term basis, will not enter into this type of industry, though some companies within the industry might show good results on quarterly/ annual basis, and indicate consistent improvements.

With regard to Dr Senthil 's involvement in SEMB , he must be there with a specific strategy. Rather than investing in growth prospects, they are essentially dealing in securities, and I doubt whether a retail investor can align his strategy with the strategy of that type of investor.

21 Re: CIFL aiyo salli? on Wed Mar 13, 2013 7:50 am

Slstock

avatar
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
I agree about the competetion and some of the concerns you raised. But on the other hand smaller companeis if managed well can grow faster and quicker than more established one. Reg SEMB till will only tell. Atleast is had been heading up not down the last few quarters.

I recall SEMB had some alliance with Ashok Leyland. Not sure whether it still exists. LEyland also was not doing well due to economy.

Like I mentioned else where , the decision to invest or trade is up to us. Also SEMB.X warrant conversion was at 2 times current price but few were converted. SEMB.N at Rs 1.



Your below comment 'I do not agree.

@knockknobbler wrote:

An investor who is looking for stabity,
growth, and returns on a long term basis, will not enter into this type
of industry, though some companies within the industry might show good
results on quarterly/ annual basis, and indicate consistent
improvements.



Think about the companies you mentioned CFIN, LFIN, PLC. CFIN has shown consistent growth over decades not years. LFIN after a big turn around from Vanik management , it is giving a good run to CFIN.

PLC is probably the safest due to gov backing.

22 Re: CIFL aiyo salli? on Thu Mar 14, 2013 8:23 am

knockknobbler


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@slstock wrote:


Your below comment 'I do not agree.


Think about the companies you mentioned CFIN, LFIN, PLC. CFIN has shown consistent growth over decades not years. LFIN after a big turn around from Vanik management , it is giving a good run to CFIN.

PLC is probably the safest due to gov backing.

I agree CFIN has shown consistent growth over decades.

This is exactly the same point, I am making. Think about the industry structure and market conditions during those decades . Finance companies had a distinct market segment for their products /services-. leasing, hire purchase , property loans ,personal loans etc, . The main point is established Banks did not intrude into this area. There were few finance companies ( less than 5 ?) and they were mindful about the risk /return ,since they have developed business practices , expertise over the years.

There was not cut throat competition .The people behind the finance companies were respected and trusted ( even -Kotalawala @TFC). When VANIK was developing liquidity problems, LFIN was not in trouble ,because the operations / management were separate. That's why VANIK was able sell LFIN at a good price, unlike the sale of it's other assets. .
CFIN had another advantage because of their regional presence ( Kandy area ).
Compare the industry structure, market conditions ,then and NOW. Can a rational fund manager conclude that companies like CFIN, LFIN, can maintain same growth rates and risk profile ? I doubt !
With regard to PLC, (I have not studied ) ,but I sense PLC is the most inefficient company in this lot, because it originated from Peoples Bank and it has grown oversize. Recently I heard a person with political connections was appointed as CEO ,paying very high salaries and perks.Probably , you know about the new Chairman and have an idea about his qualification, experience, suitability of leading a business enterprise of this nature. I hope a research / study is available, comparing staff /overhead costs to income , profits and NPL ratios.

23 Re: CIFL aiyo salli? on Thu Mar 14, 2013 9:33 am

Arena


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
knockknobbler

Very good comment. Thanks.

VFIN still maintain a 50% + growth over rev. and profit over last year as well. I dont know how they exaggerate the growth like this since we dont see any rushing advertising campaigns or branch expansion like COCR of Lfin. My point is VFIN shows the childhood of LFIN and the people who get a stake will be winners in 3 to 5 years time. That is what Divsa finance has done ( See the top 20 list of VFIN )

And if you take COCR they create new products. See their advertisement on Fixed deposits and Electronic items. This is the first time we saw some thing like this in Sri Lnaka. Any way if you are really aggressive you can beat others in any market.

For an example LFIN now having a portfolio of imported Branded luxury vehicles where they give the vehicle to the buyer with in few days but the leasing should be done through LFIN. They can deliver the vehicle faster than other reputed vehicle sales................Like wise Finance is a sector in which you can create new things to make money. having huge No. of players is not a issue in a growing country as far as the sector is well governed.

24 Re: CIFL aiyo salli? on Thu Mar 14, 2013 10:00 am

Slstock

avatar
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Both KK and Arena comments needs to be noted.

When the competition gets tougher the survival of the fittest ( most innovative and aggressive) will win.

Regading VFIN, they have opened 2 new bracnhes within the last 6 months few months. I agree VFIN is going at a very fast rate and has a lot more possibilities to expand. Still trying to figure out why DP wants LFIN and VFIN. Many products are replicating. Does he want to make VFIN grow and sell off or merge with LFIN?

COCR and VFIN seems very potential companiesfor the future. But COCR ambitions are a bit too optimistic. They said they wantto make the share R 280 or something withing 2 or 3 years! Let give a few more quarter to figure out the growth momentum of these companies.




@Arena wrote:knockknobbler

Very good comment. Thanks.

VFIN still maintain a 50% + growth over rev. and profit over last year as well. I dont know how they exaggerate the growth like this since we dont see any rushing advertising campaigns or branch expansion like COCR of Lfin. My point is VFIN shows the childhood of LFIN and the people who get a stake will be winners in 3 to 5 years time. That is what Divsa finance has done ( See the top 20 list of VFIN )

And if you take COCR they create new products. See their advertisement on Fixed deposits and Electronic items. This is the first time we saw some thing like this in Sri Lnaka. Any way if you are really aggressive you can beat others in any market.

For an example LFIN now having a portfolio of imported Branded luxury vehicles where they give the vehicle to the buyer with in few days but the leasing should be done through LFIN. They can deliver the vehicle faster than other reputed vehicle sales................Like wise Finance is a sector in which you can create new things to make money. having huge No. of players is not a issue in a growing country as far as the sector is well governed.

25 CIFL pricees further down on Thu Mar 14, 2013 1:10 pm

Janaka Gunathilake


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
Cifl prices are going down.when it will be stop that down

26 Re: CIFL aiyo salli? on Thu Mar 14, 2013 1:19 pm

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Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
Did you read this post from the top?


@Janaka Gunathilake wrote:Cifl prices are going down.when it will be stop that down

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