Sri Lanka Equity Forum
Dear Reader,

Registration with the Sri Lanka Equity Forum would enable you to enjoy an array of other services such as Member Rankings, User Groups, Own Posts & Profile, Exclusive Research, Live Chat Box etc..

All information contained in this forum is subject to Disclaimer Notice published.


Thank You
Sri Lanka Equity Forum
Poll

SLEF Market Sentiment Indicator

73% 73% [ 1113 ]
27% 27% [ 402 ]

Total Votes : 1515

Responsible Care



Latest topics
» 27 wenidata Raliyak thiyenawalu
by nimantha80 Today at 8:05 pm

» HOW WELL ARE YOU KEEPING AWAY FROM THE MARKET
by samaritan Today at 8:04 pm

» How well are you sleeping these days?
by nimantha80 Today at 7:49 pm

» HATS OFF TO QUIBIT
by soileconomy Today at 5:43 pm

» LEASE BG,SBLC
by kimsungnyon007 Today at 4:40 pm

» WE ARE SPECIALIZED IN DELIVERING GENUINE BANK INSTRUMENTS
by kimsungnyon007 Today at 4:23 pm

» We offer fresh cut bank instruments for lease and sales
by kimsungnyon007 Today at 4:22 pm

» Bridge Loans & Hard Money Financing
by kimsungnyon007 Today at 4:14 pm

» Certified Bank Guarantee BG StandBy Letter of Credit SBLC Available
by kimsungnyon007 Today at 4:10 pm

» Teller, The Great Manipulator Of HEXP
by Miss-Sangeetha Today at 2:35 pm

» DECRIMINALIZATION OF HOMOSEXUALITY
by sureshot Today at 1:45 pm

» MANDATORY OFFER BY PRIME LANDS (PRIVATE) LIMITED TO PURCHASE ALL THE REMAINING ORDINARY SHARES OF SUMMIT FINANCE PLC
by point Today at 12:21 pm

» Be carefully your shares of cse
by rosa maria Today at 12:13 pm

» ජීඑස්පී ප්ලස් සඳහා එකම නිර්ණායකය ජාත්‍යන්තර ප්‍රඥප්තීන් 27 ක්‍රියාත්මක කිරීම පමණයි – යුරෝපා සංගමය කියයි
by worthiness Today at 12:06 pm

» policy direction is required, but no big problem in economy
by worthiness Today at 11:31 am

» SEVERAL STOCK BROKERS TO CLOSE SHOP
by ice4083 Today at 11:15 am

» SEC curbs activities of Swarnamahal Financial Services
by worthiness Today at 11:07 am

» What is the best free online CSE stocks portfolio monitoring tool/Website?
by kush123 Today at 10:35 am

» JKH 100/=....NEXT JANUARY.....
by Ryan Hudson Today at 8:41 am

» Minister Kabir Hashim
by PrasannaMani Today at 8:20 am

» New leasing scheme comes into effect
by PrasannaMani Today at 7:58 am

» last few years Budgets.
by stockback Today at 12:03 am

» ASI Chart 18.01.2017
by stockback Yesterday at 11:51 pm

» TKS Securities to close down operations by 31st March 2017
by stockback Yesterday at 11:31 pm

» Stock mkt Crash ASI would be reached to 5500
by Quibit Yesterday at 10:01 pm

» කුලියාපිටි ෆොක්ස්වගන් කාර් වලට ටයර් හදන්නෙ හොරණ ද​?
by worthiness Yesterday at 9:48 pm

» Good governance to rob more money in one deal than previous admins made in 4 years
by worthiness Yesterday at 9:17 pm

» Ratifying 27 int’l conventions the criteria for GSP: EU
by PrasannaMani Yesterday at 4:05 pm

» Lankan delegation in Davos says several trade pacts will be finalized by June
by PrasannaMani Yesterday at 3:21 pm

» TRAGEDY OF POLICY DECISIONS UNDER YAHAPALANA!
by worthiness Yesterday at 1:44 pm

» Hidden Treasure !!! - Maharaja
by Maharaja Yesterday at 10:45 am

» ADAM INVESTMENTS PLC share dropping
by niru Yesterday at 10:09 am

» SL will integrate trade in Asian region: PM
by PrasannaMani Yesterday at 8:46 am

» CMPort China to pump over US$ 400 mn on H’tota port
by sisira.wijeweera Tue Jan 17, 2017 10:47 pm

» Coca-Cola interested in using SL as production hub
by soileconomy Tue Jan 17, 2017 9:45 pm

» Finance Minister
by sureshot Tue Jan 17, 2017 8:33 pm

» 200 point ASI move- Maharaja
by Maharaja Tue Jan 17, 2017 6:12 pm

» CSE MARKET SIGNAL
by stockback Tue Jan 17, 2017 3:07 pm

» SL’s future growth depends on foreign investor confidence: WB
by skyfall Tue Jan 17, 2017 12:31 pm

» INVESTORS AVOID CSE CASINO
by samaritan Tue Jan 17, 2017 11:52 am

» CSE TO SHUT DOWN? - FUTURE BLEAK
by nimantha80 Tue Jan 17, 2017 11:49 am

» NO FOOD, EAT FREEDOM OF SPEECH
by samaritan Tue Jan 17, 2017 11:42 am

» GSP++ and MGT.N 20+
by sisira.wijeweera Mon Jan 16, 2017 11:45 pm

» ASI Chart - 01.15.2017
by stockback Mon Jan 16, 2017 10:57 pm

» GSP+ effet ..sectors , companies.
by amilaela Mon Jan 16, 2017 9:47 pm

» ETCA ගිවිසුම තුලින් ජනාධිපති තුමාට කැප්පෙටිපොල වීරයා මෙන් ඉතිහාස ගත ජාතික වීරයෙක් වෙන්න යැයි ඉල්ලීමක්
by worthiness Mon Jan 16, 2017 7:55 pm

» Foreigners who invest over USD 300,000 to get 2 to 5 year visa
by worthiness Mon Jan 16, 2017 7:36 pm

» The dead walk
by anjelo Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:25 pm

» The 300 of hexp as it long term glory
by stockback Mon Jan 16, 2017 9:30 am

» Foundation laid for Nestlé Lanka’s Rs.5bn factory expansion
by PrasannaMani Mon Jan 16, 2017 8:12 am

» Meka Mahinda Rajapaksege Wadak
by Yahapalanaya Mon Jan 16, 2017 7:00 am

» More buyers than sellers
by nimantha80 Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:48 pm

» HEXP.N000 Chart
by worthiness Sun Jan 15, 2017 10:02 pm

» SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS FOR 2017
by worthiness Sat Jan 14, 2017 1:06 pm

» What are the most Undervalued stock of CSE?
by point Sat Jan 14, 2017 9:06 am

» HEXP cash per share is Rs.48/-
by stockback Fri Jan 13, 2017 11:40 pm

» Don't sell ALUM on cheap...DIVIDEND 1 RUPEE COMING SOON...
by Rifanmoh Fri Jan 13, 2017 6:30 pm

» EPF can buy over all companies in Sri Lanka, says Premier
by PrasannaMani Fri Jan 13, 2017 2:08 pm

» Capital trust triger buying signal on ALUM Target price 23.50...
by kasun panditha Fri Jan 13, 2017 10:40 am

» KEEP EYE ON ALUMEX TARGET PRICE 25 ...
by kasun panditha Fri Jan 13, 2017 10:39 am

» REXP REXP.
by kassachandimal Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:37 am

» MArket will be green
by jayathu Fri Jan 13, 2017 9:28 am

» MARKET BLEEDS DUE TO POLICY INCONSISTENCIES
by soileconomy Fri Jan 13, 2017 6:52 am

» Since today is Poya day...This suits for equity Forum.....
by Chinwi Thu Jan 12, 2017 9:36 pm

» BOP surplus during the first nine months of 2016
by skyfall Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:35 pm

» Looking to enter market after few years. Need your genuine advice.
by PrasannaMani Thu Jan 12, 2017 4:18 pm

» we got GSP relief....Thanks god
by PrasannaMani Thu Jan 12, 2017 4:14 pm

» Access Engineering invests in Rs10bn mixed development
by Teller Thu Jan 12, 2017 3:05 pm

» SRI LANKA TO GET BACK GSP+ FACILITY
by PrasannaMani Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:20 am

» Finance Minister
by PrasannaMani Thu Jan 12, 2017 9:33 am

» Sri Lanka to raise US $ 1.5bn through bonds in new year
by PrasannaMani Thu Jan 12, 2017 8:58 am

» GSP+ granted European Commission - Press release
by PrasannaMani Thu Jan 12, 2017 8:10 am

» GSP+++++++++++++++
by Kashyapa Senarathne Wed Jan 11, 2017 8:55 pm

» Breaking News - LONG OVERDUE SALE OF HEXP LAND FOR RS. 420 M REALIZED ON 10/01/2017
by worthiness Wed Jan 11, 2017 7:36 pm

» Well organized manipulation to keep the market down !!!!!
by Learner19 Wed Jan 11, 2017 6:04 pm

» EU Commission proposes to grant GSP+ to Sri Lanka
by Learner19 Wed Jan 11, 2017 5:41 pm

» The Banker mag picks Ravi K as Finance Minister of the Year, Asia-Pacific
by ranferdi Wed Jan 11, 2017 4:45 pm

» HEXP deal completed
by Teller Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:48 am

» HEXP start next run to 150
by Teller Wed Jan 11, 2017 11:36 am

» SAMP 17 rs announcement ahead..feb
by jayathu Tue Jan 10, 2017 3:41 pm

» Stock Market Quotes
by agrawalmadhuri154 Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:29 pm

» Credit rating upgrade depends on SL’s compliance with IMF conditions: Fitch
by PrasannaMani Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:42 am

» Foreign reserves improve to US $ 6 bn by end 2016
by PrasannaMani Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:18 am

» Higher private credit growth upsets Central Bank
by PrasannaMani Tue Jan 10, 2017 9:16 am

» Hilton Colombo, Grand Hyatt will be listed this quarter
by anges Tue Jan 10, 2017 2:42 am

» ANY NEWS ON MGT.......
by anges Tue Jan 10, 2017 2:38 am

» Reliable and Safe Way To Make Over 40% Profit Monthly
by princess111 Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:45 am

» යහපාලනෙන් රට වැසියන්ට නව ආහාර රාශියක්
by Chinwi Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:45 am

» CFVF 2 Rupee Dividend on the Way
by Harry82 Mon Jan 09, 2017 9:45 pm

» ITALIAN TYRE GIANT MARANGONI TURNS ITS BACK ON SRI LANKA
by worthiness Mon Jan 09, 2017 5:36 pm

» CAN A CHAMELEON & COMEDIAN GOVERN A NATION?
by stockback Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:25 pm

» TRANSFORMATION OF VOLKSWAGEN UNDER YAHAPALANA
by worthiness Sun Jan 08, 2017 5:56 pm

» Real UNP Era begins - market should go
by worthiness Sun Jan 08, 2017 5:22 pm

» GSP plus has been confirmed.
by Brinthan Sun Jan 08, 2017 2:47 pm

» /GSP---concession-by-next-week
by Brinthan Sat Jan 07, 2017 11:15 pm

» SRILANKA WILL PROBABLY REGAIN EU GSP PLUS NEXT WEEK
by Brinthan Sat Jan 07, 2017 3:38 pm

» Humidity is going down - bit unusual in CMB
by PrasannaMani Sat Jan 07, 2017 2:01 pm

» Ravi calls CB Governor a hospital attendant
by PrasannaMani Sat Jan 07, 2017 11:11 am

» Sri Lanka to attract 2.5mn tourists in 2017 despite snags
by PrasannaMani Sat Jan 07, 2017 9:20 am


CIFL aiyo salli?

Page 1 of 2 1, 2  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by troy on Mon Mar 11, 2013 2:16 pm

Whats going on? The BIG seller is going on and on... how much does he left with??
Will this downfall end??

troy
Moderator

Posts : 1121
Equity Stars : 4458
Reputation : 31
Join date : 2011-09-10
Age : 32
Location : WTC

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Slstock on Mon Mar 11, 2013 2:42 pm

CIFL is oversold now . But that does not matter if someone i s keen to dispose . If this market remains like this ( no real upward activity overall) CIFL can head to Rs 2.5 and even Rs 2.

CIFL NAV was something to consider( but there are many shares at 0.5 NAV) , but that last quarter loss of over Rs 1 for a Share which was Rs 4 was far too much. Usually penny stock make losses of few cent or Rs 0.1 . Rs 1 is shocking.


I can't remember how many times from last year itself I personally told CIFL has serious issues and was not a share to hold. It is only good for trading. Only consolation is this gets easily pushed up during runs as we have seen before. But again if that does not happen soon this can drop 20-30% further.

Unless there is some serious restructuring and cash inflow, I find CIFL is a risky share to hold. More importanly if you have FDs be watchful where the company is heading in the next 2 quarters.



@troy wrote:Whats going on? The BIG seller is going on and on... how much does he left with??
Will this downfall end??

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Posts : 6628
Equity Stars : 10740
Reputation : 1158
Join date : 2011-01-22

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Chinwi on Mon Mar 11, 2013 3:30 pm

An year ago , after the IPO days lot of people wearing CIFL T shirts were seen everywhere offering 24% interest for the new deposits.

Non of them knew anything about the situation faced by pre-IPO depositors .

If this company is continuing to drain its cash like this, what will happen to the money deposited by the latest set of intelligent people ?
( No point of talking about shareholders)

Chinwi
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 2898
Equity Stars : 6048
Reputation : 387
Join date : 2010-06-08
Location : Asia

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Arena on Mon Mar 11, 2013 3:39 pm

I think Initial owners will sell sell the company to a cash rich company.

Is laugh looking for financial institution ?

Arena
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 704
Equity Stars : 2401
Reputation : 44
Join date : 2012-07-31
Location : Colombo

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Slstock on Mon Mar 11, 2013 3:43 pm

I know they even called people continously ( a nuisance) using agents promoting the company with high interest rates.

Even my elderly mother was a target to a sweet talking girl. Thankfully I warned her much and anyway she wasn't considering anything . But these sweet talking girls must have attracted some people I guess.

CIFL is 45 year old company . Should not be at this level now. :-(



I remember Okanda finance offering 20-30% at times. When a company is offering too good to be true interest rate one needs to watch out.




@Chinwi wrote:An year ago , after the IPO days lot of people wearing CIFL T shirts were seen everywhere offering 24% interest for the new deposits.

Non of them knew anything about the situation faced by pre-IPO depositors .

If this company is continuing to drain its cash like this, what will happen to the money deposited by the latest set of intelligent people ?
( No point of talking about shareholders)

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Posts : 6628
Equity Stars : 10740
Reputation : 1158
Join date : 2011-01-22

Back to top Go down

CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Janaka Gunathilake on Mon Mar 11, 2013 9:57 pm

CIFL prices are going down as they are going to change management

Janaka Gunathilake
Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic

Posts : 17
Equity Stars : 1649
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2012-08-29

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Fresher on Tue Mar 12, 2013 7:29 am

What is their joint venture investment? According to the notes, that has a significant contribution (almost half) to the interest income

Fresher
Moderator

Posts : 1501
Equity Stars : 4852
Reputation : 163
Join date : 2011-02-04

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Jana1 on Tue Mar 12, 2013 11:28 am

Old saying, buying commodities at closing down sale is very cheaper. But people should be caution with what commodity they are buying. I guess CIFL also in its closing down sale....Smile

Jana1
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 704
Equity Stars : 2827
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2011-06-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by rainmaker on Tue Mar 12, 2013 11:58 am

npp wrote:What is their joint venture investment? According to the notes, that has a significant contribution (almost half) to the interest income

There was a real estate project in Homagama. ASPIC (major shareholder) of CIFL was advised to buy CIFL's portion out. The buyout is very expensive.

http://www.cifl.lk/product/real_estate.html

rainmaker
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 918
Equity Stars : 3578
Reputation : 45
Join date : 2013-02-06

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by sanju351 on Tue Mar 12, 2013 2:46 pm

@Jana1 wrote:Old saying, buying commodities at closing down sale is very cheaper. But people should be caution with what commodity they are buying. I guess CIFL also in its closing down sale....Smile

what ever information ma getting am sharing some times we are also been fooled by others ..everyone should do her his own home work

That is why i called all concern fellows my self - you all can call CIFL HDQ 0114419419 & 0112698888 -
But Jana should have had to clarify the forum why he has mentioned such a serious post if he was not 90% - he stated this is as company closing sale - its very serious and bad as it is totally fabricated story .

CIFL does not have such ideas at all according to their top management they are going in for a major re structuring in the coming months by April end everything will be stable they said !! .

sanju351
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 507
Equity Stars : 2541
Reputation : 14
Join date : 2012-04-25
Age : 45

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Slstock on Tue Mar 12, 2013 3:06 pm

Jana1, do you have any confirmed news that CIFL is closigndown or is this your idea. If it is your idea only do not make such statements. There are people here who is burned to skin with CIFL just like PCH, TWOD, GREG.

All of these shares have one thing in common. No real consistent cash generation and due to that they are prone to speculation and stories.


@Jana1 wrote:Old saying, buying commodities at closing down sale is very cheaper. But people should be caution with what commodity they are buying. I guess CIFL also in its closing down sale....Smile

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Posts : 6628
Equity Stars : 10740
Reputation : 1158
Join date : 2011-01-22

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Jana1 on Tue Mar 12, 2013 3:47 pm

@slstock wrote:Jana1, do you have any confirmed news that CIFL is closigndown or is this your idea. If it is your idea only do not make such statements. There are people here who is burned to skin with CIFL just like PCH, TWOD, GREG.

All of these shares have one thing in common. No real consistent cash generation and due to that they are prone to speculation and stories.


@Jana1 wrote:Old saying, buying commodities at closing down sale is very cheaper. But people should be caution with what commodity they are buying. I guess CIFL also in its closing down sale....Smile
@ slstock

I didn't say that they are going to close down their business with any information, I simply mentioned people to be more cautioned who more interested in buying CIFL due to its current nature. Read my comment "I guess" means no fact but future is more questionable. Even I have no intention to say that they are going to close...Smile

I considered below basic facts,

1) Why owner is selling his company if that has future value? - I remember some guys mentioned even the broker company at which he is selling.

2)How could 1 finance company's operating profit could be lost?
I can see two proxies for CIFL, 1) the finance- still survive with government interest. 2) Vanik saga- dead.

3)If that is operating profit shows lost can they break through even if they change their strategy within short time (less than year)? Operating lost means they need more OD it will increase its finance cost finally ended up with debenture as no room for rights.No backing from any parent companies. I believe the big rumour is changing strategy-not sure.

4) As their lost is about 1.4 PER which is 20-25 % of their current asset and the possibility of lost making would be exponentially increase in next quarters for finance companies as their interest expenses increases. Investors should work out how this could be possible- As they gave high interest rate to FD during last year, the present opportunity for highest loan interest is not possible as interest rate came down. So they are making operating lost and this could possible for at-least 3 quarters as most of FD is above 1 year. With loosing market in leasing (however impact is less to CIFL) how could they break through?

@slstock based on da above facts do you think investing in this company is advisable?



Jana1
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 704
Equity Stars : 2827
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2011-06-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Slstock on Tue Mar 12, 2013 4:06 pm

Jana1,

I have warned the forum over many months about CIFL. Very much before this crisis. If one search the forum they will see.


I requested you to clarify as people like Sanju has directed his finger at yout comment and they are many people in the forum who has burnt over this even after so much warning. Now they must be in serious heart ache.

As CIFL is manipulated easily and has run over RS 10several times they keep their hopes up and buy this when is pushed up without even knowing what they are doing.


ACtually , until CIFL officially comes up with a plan to restructure , this shares is dangerous. As it is oversold ti can move a bit with a push. But if some big seller comes ... your guess is good as mine.

FD holders need to be very watchfull too.




@Jana1 wrote:
@slstock wrote:Jana1, do you have any confirmed news that CIFL is closigndown or is this your idea. If it is your idea only do not make such statements. There are people here who is burned to skin with CIFL just like PCH, TWOD, GREG.

All of these shares have one thing in common. No real consistent cash generation and due to that they are prone to speculation and stories.


@Jana1 wrote:Old saying, buying commodities at closing down sale is very cheaper. But people should be caution with what commodity they are buying. I guess CIFL also in its closing down sale....Smile
@ slstock

I didn't say that they are going to close down their business with any information, I simply mentioned people to be more cautioned who more interested in buying CIFL due to its current nature. Read my comment "I guess" means no fact but future is more questionable. Even I have no intention to say that they are going to close...Smile

I considered below basic facts,

1) Why owner is selling his company if that has future value? - I remember some guys mentioned even the broker company at which he is selling.

2)How could 1 finance company's operating profit could be lost?
I can see two proxies for CIFL, 1) the finance- still survive with government interest. 2) Vanik saga- dead.

3)If that is operating profit shows lost can they break through even if they change their strategy within short time (less than year)? Operating lost means they need more OD it will increase its finance cost finally ended up with debenture as no room for rights.No backing from any parent companies. I believe the big rumour is changing strategy-not sure.

4) As their lost is about 1.4 PER which is 20-25 % of their current asset and the possibility of lost making would be exponentially increase in next quarters for finance companies as their interest expenses increases. Investors should work out how this could be possible- As they gave high interest rate to FD during last year, the present opportunity for highest loan interest is not possible as interest rate came down. So they are making operating lost and this could possible for at-least 3 quarters as most of FD is above 1 year. With loosing market in leasing (however impact is less to CIFL) how could they break through?

@slstock based on da above facts do you think investing in this company is advisable?



Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Posts : 6628
Equity Stars : 10740
Reputation : 1158
Join date : 2011-01-22

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Jana1 on Tue Mar 12, 2013 4:36 pm

Sorry about that.. I can understand the pain of losing investors..

But my intention was to warn fresh investors who was about to buy at this price level.


@slstock wrote:Jana1,

I have warned the forum over many months about CIFL. Very much before this crisis. If one search the forum they will see.


I requested you to clarify as people like Sanju has directed his finger at yout comment and they are many people in the forum who has burnt over this even after so much warning. Now they must be in serious heart ache.

As CIFL is manipulated easily and has run over RS 10several times they keep their hopes up and buy this when is pushed up without even knowing what they are doing.


ACtually , until CIFL officially comes up with a plan to restructure , this shares is dangerous. As it is oversold ti can move a bit with a push. But if some big seller comes ... your guess is good as mine.

FD holders need to be very watchfull too.




@Jana1 wrote:
@slstock wrote:Jana1, do you have any confirmed news that CIFL is closigndown or is this your idea. If it is your idea only do not make such statements. There are people here who is burned to skin with CIFL just like PCH, TWOD, GREG.

All of these shares have one thing in common. No real consistent cash generation and due to that they are prone to speculation and stories.


@Jana1 wrote:Old saying, buying commodities at closing down sale is very cheaper. But people should be caution with what commodity they are buying. I guess CIFL also in its closing down sale....Smile
@ slstock

I didn't say that they are going to close down their business with any information, I simply mentioned people to be more cautioned who more interested in buying CIFL due to its current nature. Read my comment "I guess" means no fact but future is more questionable. Even I have no intention to say that they are going to close...Smile

I considered below basic facts,

1) Why owner is selling his company if that has future value? - I remember some guys mentioned even the broker company at which he is selling.

2)How could 1 finance company's operating profit could be lost?
I can see two proxies for CIFL, 1) the finance- still survive with government interest. 2) Vanik saga- dead.

3)If that is operating profit shows lost can they break through even if they change their strategy within short time (less than year)? Operating lost means they need more OD it will increase its finance cost finally ended up with debenture as no room for rights.No backing from any parent companies. I believe the big rumour is changing strategy-not sure.

4) As their lost is about 1.4 PER which is 20-25 % of their current asset and the possibility of lost making would be exponentially increase in next quarters for finance companies as their interest expenses increases. Investors should work out how this could be possible- As they gave high interest rate to FD during last year, the present opportunity for highest loan interest is not possible as interest rate came down. So they are making operating lost and this could possible for at-least 3 quarters as most of FD is above 1 year. With loosing market in leasing (however impact is less to CIFL) how could they break through?

@slstock based on da above facts do you think investing in this company is advisable?



Jana1
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 704
Equity Stars : 2827
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2011-06-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by knockknobbler on Tue Mar 12, 2013 6:20 pm

I don't think there is any point in discussing , Business Plan ,financial performance, Balance Sheet strength ,future prospects of this type of companies. No investor will touch these.
Like SEMB, BLUE, GREG-W, ...etc, these are the turf of Traders. When You are Trading , ll there are certain rules you have to observe, but the issues you all are discussing above, is immaterial for a Trader.

knockknobbler
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 178
Equity Stars : 1614
Reputation : 12
Join date : 2013-02-21

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Slstock on Tue Mar 12, 2013 6:29 pm

You think SEMB is that bad? Did you notice some improvement over the last few quarters?

Also Dr Senthil must have done some study to invest that much. Having a reputed investor in the company is something to consider. It better than not havign one.


Anyway SEMB is the only share below Rs 1 right now. It is too liquid after the warrant and right issues.





@knockknobbler wrote:I don't think there is any point in discussing , Business Plan ,financial performance, Balance Sheet strength ,future prospects of this type of companies. No investor will touch these.
Like SEMB, BLUE, GREG-W, ...etc, these are the turf of Traders. When You are Trading , ll there are certain rules you have to observe, but the issues you all are discussing above, is immaterial for a Trader.

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Posts : 6628
Equity Stars : 10740
Reputation : 1158
Join date : 2011-01-22

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Jana1 on Tue Mar 12, 2013 7:45 pm

Yes SEMB cannot be in that category. But I don't think it improved its bottom line. It was making profit 2009 there after it failed, any improvement is zigzag through out the years. For banking sector this looks over valued share.As per Dr. senthil, he even invested in TFC and Lcem. For him these investments are just peanut and he may not expect much turnaround, if it turns he will push the price and sell it, so his profit from turn around one could compensate the loosing company even it goes bankrupt. Without knowing his strategy, it would be risky to follow sum1.

@slstock wrote:You think SEMB is that bad? Did you notice some improvement over the last few quarters?

Also Dr Senthil must have done some study to invest that much. Having a reputed investor in the company is something to consider. It better than not havign one.


Anyway SEMB is the only share below Rs 1 right now. It is too liquid after the warrant and right issues.





@knockknobbler wrote:I don't think there is any point in discussing , Business Plan ,financial performance, Balance Sheet strength ,future prospects of this type of companies. No investor will touch these.
Like SEMB, BLUE, GREG-W, ...etc, these are the turf of Traders. When You are Trading , ll there are certain rules you have to observe, but the issues you all are discussing above, is immaterial for a Trader.

Jana1
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 704
Equity Stars : 2827
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2011-06-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by gamaya on Tue Mar 12, 2013 9:16 pm

Even bad companies can have rallies.

Sometimes we may inadvertantly contribute by condemning a share for certain parties to collect at very low levels.

gamaya
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 823
Equity Stars : 4107
Reputation : 39
Join date : 2011-01-22

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Slstock on Wed Mar 13, 2013 3:56 am

Less than 1 million to 62 million profit increase is something. Can they continue the trend this year is what is to be watched.

Like Gamaya said any company can have its day when it is listed at CSE. Whether to trade or invest is another decision.


@Jana1 wrote:Yes SEMB cannot be in that category. But I don't think it improved its bottom line. It was making profit 2009 there after it failed, any improvement is zigzag through out the years. For banking sector this looks over valued share.As per Dr. senthil, he even invested in TFC and Lcem. For him these investments are just peanut and he may not expect much turnaround, if it turns he will push the price and sell it, so his profit from turn around one could compensate the loosing company even it goes bankrupt. Without knowing his strategy, it would be risky to follow sum1.

@slstock wrote:You think SEMB is that bad? Did you notice some improvement over the last few quarters?

Also Dr Senthil must have done some study to invest that much. Having a reputed investor in the company is something to consider. It better than not havign one.


Anyway SEMB is the only share below Rs 1 right now. It is too liquid after the warrant and right issues.





@knockknobbler wrote:I don't think there is any point in discussing , Business Plan ,financial performance, Balance Sheet strength ,future prospects of this type of companies. No investor will touch these.
Like SEMB, BLUE, GREG-W, ...etc, these are the turf of Traders. When You are Trading , ll there are certain rules you have to observe, but the issues you all are discussing above, is immaterial for a Trader.

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Posts : 6628
Equity Stars : 10740
Reputation : 1158
Join date : 2011-01-22

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by knockknobbler on Wed Mar 13, 2013 7:29 am

@slstock wrote:You think SEMB is that bad? Did you notice some improvement over the last few quarters?
Also Dr Senthil must have done some study to invest that much. Having a reputed investor in the company is something to consider. It better than not havign one.
Anyway SEMB is the only share below Rs 1 right now. It is too liquid after the warrant and right issues.

I am not saying SEMB is "that bad ". I am looking at the broader picture.
Look at the industry and the industry segment, companies like SEMB are in.
# There are 30 odd listed companies in this financial services ( leasing, hire purchase, private loans ,dealings in property ...) . all are at cut throat competition to attract deposits as well as to grant loans/ leases.
# Since Banks, established finance companies like CFIN ,LFIN are also competing in this market segment, these companies have to offer high rates to attract deposits and they are left over with a client base at the high risk end.
# most of the companies are not having a track record or the backing of a financial heavyweight ( except few like CFIN, LFIN, VFIN , PLC ... ) and are subject to severe strains , if there is rise in interest rates .
#most pressing issue is that the company is subject t collapse overnight, if there is a "run" and subsequent collapse of any one company in the industry.

An investor who is looking for stabity, growth, and returns on a long term basis, will not enter into this type of industry, though some companies within the industry might show good results on quarterly/ annual basis, and indicate consistent improvements.

With regard to Dr Senthil 's involvement in SEMB , he must be there with a specific strategy. Rather than investing in growth prospects, they are essentially dealing in securities, and I doubt whether a retail investor can align his strategy with the strategy of that type of investor.

knockknobbler
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 178
Equity Stars : 1614
Reputation : 12
Join date : 2013-02-21

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Slstock on Wed Mar 13, 2013 7:50 am

I agree about the competetion and some of the concerns you raised. But on the other hand smaller companeis if managed well can grow faster and quicker than more established one. Reg SEMB till will only tell. Atleast is had been heading up not down the last few quarters.

I recall SEMB had some alliance with Ashok Leyland. Not sure whether it still exists. LEyland also was not doing well due to economy.

Like I mentioned else where , the decision to invest or trade is up to us. Also SEMB.X warrant conversion was at 2 times current price but few were converted. SEMB.N at Rs 1.



Your below comment 'I do not agree.

@knockknobbler wrote:

An investor who is looking for stabity,
growth, and returns on a long term basis, will not enter into this type
of industry, though some companies within the industry might show good
results on quarterly/ annual basis, and indicate consistent
improvements.



Think about the companies you mentioned CFIN, LFIN, PLC. CFIN has shown consistent growth over decades not years. LFIN after a big turn around from Vanik management , it is giving a good run to CFIN.

PLC is probably the safest due to gov backing.

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Posts : 6628
Equity Stars : 10740
Reputation : 1158
Join date : 2011-01-22

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by knockknobbler on Thu Mar 14, 2013 8:23 am

@slstock wrote:


Your below comment 'I do not agree.


Think about the companies you mentioned CFIN, LFIN, PLC. CFIN has shown consistent growth over decades not years. LFIN after a big turn around from Vanik management , it is giving a good run to CFIN.

PLC is probably the safest due to gov backing.

I agree CFIN has shown consistent growth over decades.

This is exactly the same point, I am making. Think about the industry structure and market conditions during those decades . Finance companies had a distinct market segment for their products /services-. leasing, hire purchase , property loans ,personal loans etc, . The main point is established Banks did not intrude into this area. There were few finance companies ( less than 5 ?) and they were mindful about the risk /return ,since they have developed business practices , expertise over the years.

There was not cut throat competition .The people behind the finance companies were respected and trusted ( even -Kotalawala @TFC). When VANIK was developing liquidity problems, LFIN was not in trouble ,because the operations / management were separate. That's why VANIK was able sell LFIN at a good price, unlike the sale of it's other assets. .
CFIN had another advantage because of their regional presence ( Kandy area ).
Compare the industry structure, market conditions ,then and NOW. Can a rational fund manager conclude that companies like CFIN, LFIN, can maintain same growth rates and risk profile ? I doubt !
With regard to PLC, (I have not studied ) ,but I sense PLC is the most inefficient company in this lot, because it originated from Peoples Bank and it has grown oversize. Recently I heard a person with political connections was appointed as CEO ,paying very high salaries and perks.Probably , you know about the new Chairman and have an idea about his qualification, experience, suitability of leading a business enterprise of this nature. I hope a research / study is available, comparing staff /overhead costs to income , profits and NPL ratios.

knockknobbler
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 178
Equity Stars : 1614
Reputation : 12
Join date : 2013-02-21

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Arena on Thu Mar 14, 2013 9:33 am

knockknobbler

Very good comment. Thanks.

VFIN still maintain a 50% + growth over rev. and profit over last year as well. I dont know how they exaggerate the growth like this since we dont see any rushing advertising campaigns or branch expansion like COCR of Lfin. My point is VFIN shows the childhood of LFIN and the people who get a stake will be winners in 3 to 5 years time. That is what Divsa finance has done ( See the top 20 list of VFIN )

And if you take COCR they create new products. See their advertisement on Fixed deposits and Electronic items. This is the first time we saw some thing like this in Sri Lnaka. Any way if you are really aggressive you can beat others in any market.

For an example LFIN now having a portfolio of imported Branded luxury vehicles where they give the vehicle to the buyer with in few days but the leasing should be done through LFIN. They can deliver the vehicle faster than other reputed vehicle sales................Like wise Finance is a sector in which you can create new things to make money. having huge No. of players is not a issue in a growing country as far as the sector is well governed.

Arena
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 704
Equity Stars : 2401
Reputation : 44
Join date : 2012-07-31
Location : Colombo

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Slstock on Thu Mar 14, 2013 10:00 am

Both KK and Arena comments needs to be noted.

When the competition gets tougher the survival of the fittest ( most innovative and aggressive) will win.

Regading VFIN, they have opened 2 new bracnhes within the last 6 months few months. I agree VFIN is going at a very fast rate and has a lot more possibilities to expand. Still trying to figure out why DP wants LFIN and VFIN. Many products are replicating. Does he want to make VFIN grow and sell off or merge with LFIN?

COCR and VFIN seems very potential companiesfor the future. But COCR ambitions are a bit too optimistic. They said they wantto make the share R 280 or something withing 2 or 3 years! Let give a few more quarter to figure out the growth momentum of these companies.




@Arena wrote:knockknobbler

Very good comment. Thanks.

VFIN still maintain a 50% + growth over rev. and profit over last year as well. I dont know how they exaggerate the growth like this since we dont see any rushing advertising campaigns or branch expansion like COCR of Lfin. My point is VFIN shows the childhood of LFIN and the people who get a stake will be winners in 3 to 5 years time. That is what Divsa finance has done ( See the top 20 list of VFIN )

And if you take COCR they create new products. See their advertisement on Fixed deposits and Electronic items. This is the first time we saw some thing like this in Sri Lnaka. Any way if you are really aggressive you can beat others in any market.

For an example LFIN now having a portfolio of imported Branded luxury vehicles where they give the vehicle to the buyer with in few days but the leasing should be done through LFIN. They can deliver the vehicle faster than other reputed vehicle sales................Like wise Finance is a sector in which you can create new things to make money. having huge No. of players is not a issue in a growing country as far as the sector is well governed.

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Posts : 6628
Equity Stars : 10740
Reputation : 1158
Join date : 2011-01-22

Back to top Go down

CIFL pricees further down

Post by Janaka Gunathilake on Thu Mar 14, 2013 1:10 pm

Cifl prices are going down.when it will be stop that down

Janaka Gunathilake
Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic

Posts : 17
Equity Stars : 1649
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2012-08-29

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Sponsored content Today at 8:23 pm


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 2 1, 2  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
Who is online?
In total there are 100 users online :: 6 Registered, 2 Hidden and 92 Guests

indunil329, kumarweerarathne, nimantha80, soileconomy, stockback, worthiness

Most users ever online was 541 on Mon Sep 19, 2011 11:29 am
Statistics
We have 16664 registered users
The newest registered user is AntwanNs

Our users have posted a total of 320915 messages in 49261 subjects
Forum Rules & Guidelines
Sri Lanka Equity Analytic
Disclaimer

The information contained in this forum have been submitted by third parties directly without any verification by us. The information available in this forum is not researched or purported to be complete description of the subject matter referred to herein. We do not under any circumstances whatsoever guarantee the accuracy and completeness information contained herein.

www.srilankaequity.com its blogs, forums, subdomains and/or its affiliates and/or its web masters, administrators or moderators shall not in any way be responsible or liable for loss or damage which any person or party may sustain or incur by relying on the contents of this report and acting directly or indirectly in any manner whatsoever.

Trading or investing in stocks & commodities is a high risk activity. Any action you choose to take in the markets is totally your own responsibility, www.srilankaequity.com its blogs, forums, subdomains and/or its affiliates and/or its web masters, administrators or moderators shall not be liable for any, direct or indirect, consequential or incidental damages or loss arising out of the use of this information. The information on this website is neither an offer to sell nor solicitation to buy any of the securities mentioned herein. The writers may or may not be trading in the securities mentioned.