Sri Lanka Equity Forum
Dear Reader,

Registration with the Sri Lanka Equity Forum would enable you to enjoy an array of other services such as Member Rankings, User Groups, Own Posts & Profile, Exclusive Research, Live Chat Box etc..

All information contained in this forum is subject to Disclaimer Notice published.


Thank You
Sri Lanka Equity Forum
Poll

SLEF Market Sentiment Indicator

 
 

View results

Your ride in Minutes!
TukTuk Network Type 'reg tuk vehicle no' send to 87711 or download the Mobile App
Latest topics
» Technical Analysis simulator
by chamith Today at 4:55 am

» admin we need good moderator
by Jana Today at 3:15 am

» Dialog sounds authorities on possible Airtel take-over
by Gainer Today at 2:21 am

» GUAR , CINV , CFT , CIT , GREG , ASCO , .....
by trader911 Today at 12:59 am

» JKH Ready to Break 200 +
by Gainer Yesterday at 11:22 pm

» Renuka Agri Foods...RAL
by EquityChamp Yesterday at 11:12 pm

» ACL One Of the Most Undervalued Shares in CSE
by Yahapalanaya Yesterday at 10:49 pm

» JKH W 23 still not attractive...
by Joe007 Yesterday at 10:09 pm

» Hi - Karuna /SINHAPUTHRA FINANCE PLC
by karuna Yesterday at 7:14 pm

» Past OHLC Data
by hawklk Yesterday at 6:12 pm

» JKH to engage with Govt. on Waterfront Project Rebranded as Cinnamon Life
by Gainer Yesterday at 4:30 pm

» goda wuna aiyata yanda puluwan
by SUSPENS Yesterday at 10:57 am

» Value Partners’ Top Stocks for the Year of the Monkey
by VALUEPICK Yesterday at 8:20 am

» Picking Boring Stocks Pays Off for Norway Manager of $22 Billion
by VALUEPICK Yesterday at 8:09 am

» Bull Vs Bear Market historical view
by VALUEPICK Yesterday at 8:03 am

» PARQ showing colours.
by Cricketman Yesterday at 6:49 am

» GLAS delivered a perfect growth
by Joe007 Yesterday at 5:34 am

» SIRA 3.30..........
by Joe007 Yesterday at 5:28 am

» DIPD..... Prediction.
by Joe007 Yesterday at 5:16 am

» SEYB?? can someone tell me
by Joe007 Yesterday at 5:02 am

» SIRA- performance and its future
by Joe007 Yesterday at 4:37 am

» LWL 3RD QUARTER( DEC 2015)
by Joe007 Yesterday at 4:29 am

» What happen parq
by Jana Yesterday at 3:24 am

» How to be a millionaire soon?
by Jana Yesterday at 3:20 am

» ZIKA virus Olympics at Rio in 2016
by vic19 Fri Feb 05, 2016 11:27 pm

» John Keells Holdings 2015 Profit Before Tax increases to 9% in 2015
by Gainer Fri Feb 05, 2016 8:50 pm

» Admin and Moderator Vacancies - SLEF
by wisdom78 Fri Feb 05, 2016 8:29 pm

» PARQ reports improved Financials for 30.09.2015
by wisdom78 Fri Feb 05, 2016 8:27 pm

» When TAFL . GRAN Repot come?
by worthiness Fri Feb 05, 2016 6:43 pm

» Lot of Interim report expected today
by shadow walker Fri Feb 05, 2016 6:36 pm

» JKH 200+ CLUB
by SUSPENS Fri Feb 05, 2016 4:02 pm

» Will TAFL beat BFL Share Price with in another 02/03 years..?
by Bull Master Fri Feb 05, 2016 1:49 pm

» so 3rd impact for gran tafl bfl
by karuna Fri Feb 05, 2016 1:23 pm

» AUTO DROME IS GOOD SHARE ?
by visvajith Fri Feb 05, 2016 1:13 pm

» Sale - Super discount shares on sale.
by Bull Master Fri Feb 05, 2016 1:04 pm

» how about AEL
by Dhehan Fri Feb 05, 2016 12:11 pm

» SLEF MARKET SENTIMENT INDICATOR
by prabath Fri Feb 05, 2016 11:59 am

» Eco-friendly living from the market leader
by GMNet Fri Feb 05, 2016 11:59 am

» New CEO makes profit after long time @ ACME
by buwr Fri Feb 05, 2016 11:32 am

» CPRT-SUB-DIVISION OF SHARES (DATES)
by Jana Fri Feb 05, 2016 11:25 am

» its INDEPENDANCE DAY ............lets talk / share some thing good
by Dhehan Fri Feb 05, 2016 11:12 am

» Haylese would have an impact
by manager Fri Feb 05, 2016 11:10 am

» The bet against chicken producers amid stock rise
by VALUEPICK Fri Feb 05, 2016 10:36 am

» SDB - SANASA DEVELOPMENT BANK PLC(SDB.N0000)
by SUSPENS Fri Feb 05, 2016 10:08 am

» PABC hits 1 BILLION!!!
by _livestrong_ Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:01 pm

» Get your Tuk in a click!
by chamith Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:10 pm

» REAL WAR HERO
by soileconomy Thu Feb 04, 2016 8:40 pm

» Invest Now polls
by FIRE123 Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:53 pm

» Dont panic and fall to trap
by worthiness Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:28 pm

» Larry Fink: I'm more bullish on stocks, but not oil
by VALUEPICK Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:45 pm

» Why BlackRock’s Global Investing Chief Is Bullish on Japan
by VALUEPICK Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:45 pm

» it is time for the last ( Christmas ) quater results to come/divident announcement to come one after the another...
by vic19 Thu Feb 04, 2016 11:46 am

» Textured Jersey Lanka (TJL) net profit up last quater
by vic19 Thu Feb 04, 2016 11:36 am

» යහපාල ණය ?
by ru1ru1 Wed Feb 03, 2016 10:18 pm

» Nikkei today down by 559 points and 3.25% Came down
by Joe007 Wed Feb 03, 2016 10:08 pm

» Man who saved the country from tears is in tears today!
by Yahapalanaya Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:23 pm

» CHEVRON profits down after 2002
by prabath Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:03 pm

» SECRET CALENDAR SFL SFL NOW EVERYTHING OK
by prabath Wed Feb 03, 2016 8:26 pm

» Buy but don't shout!
by VALUEPICK Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:08 pm

» Japan’s Sagawa Group
by SUSPENS Wed Feb 03, 2016 11:36 am

» ALUF ALUF ALUF
by Pac-man Wed Feb 03, 2016 10:08 am

» AAIC Divident coming soon......
by sharemarket Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:36 am

» Foreign behavior recently
by prabath Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:09 am

» Big hits from big guns.
by prabath Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:03 am

» BLI -BIMPUTH FINANCE
by otara Wed Feb 03, 2016 8:55 am

» VFIN.. Value over 90.00
by otara Wed Feb 03, 2016 8:49 am

» SFS On The Right Path To Change Through The EAP Edirisinghe Group
by GMNet Wed Feb 03, 2016 7:59 am

» JKH Profit Down
by GMNet Wed Feb 03, 2016 7:11 am

» TJL Dividend announced
by chamith Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:08 am

» ALUM/ALUF/LALU/PARQ......Going to Brake 52Wk. High
by Gainer Tue Feb 02, 2016 11:55 pm

» JKH to delay Cinnamon Life project
by Chinwi Tue Feb 02, 2016 7:41 pm

» GREGars aren't beggers
by prabath Tue Feb 02, 2016 4:55 pm

» GOOD NEWS --------------NET FOREIGN INFLOW IS ABOVE 2Bn
by Harry82 Tue Feb 02, 2016 3:17 pm

» Citigroup Cautions Investors Against Dumping Stocks Over China
by VALUEPICK Tue Feb 02, 2016 2:47 pm

» Ceylon gran Elevators (GRAN.N) opportune investment.
by prabath Tue Feb 02, 2016 2:06 pm

» PARQ......PARQ.......PARQ.......PARQ......
by shadow walker Tue Feb 02, 2016 1:38 pm

» What is happening at TFC ?
by visionstar Tue Feb 02, 2016 12:18 pm

» EXPOLANKA HOLDINGS PLC(EXPO.N0000)
by Dhehan Tue Feb 02, 2016 12:13 pm

» SALIENT RUNNER.........
by SUSPENS Tue Feb 02, 2016 12:13 pm

» Why BLI (Bimputh Finance) is Gold mine ?
by SUSPENS Tue Feb 02, 2016 12:09 pm

» this is my profile
by SUSPENS Tue Feb 02, 2016 12:04 pm

» HDFC report will out soon
by otara Tue Feb 02, 2016 11:51 am

» WAPO train
by prabath Tue Feb 02, 2016 11:09 am

» 6500,R u ready
by prabath Tue Feb 02, 2016 11:04 am

» CITW and REEF
by kcrRanz Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:09 pm

» TJL.N000 & MGT.N000..... GSP+ -Top EU delegation to visit SL next week
by kcrRanz Mon Feb 01, 2016 10:53 pm

» I have a problem
by karuna Mon Feb 01, 2016 9:52 pm

» Not the correct green.
by dsam Mon Feb 01, 2016 9:50 pm

» jkh future...?
by sisira.wijeweera Mon Feb 01, 2016 9:44 pm

» cant believe this ........can you.... any one... Hudson, quibit.....
by ranferdi Mon Feb 01, 2016 4:24 pm

» Why JKH warrant holders not giving any benefit like dividend?????
by cseranga Mon Feb 01, 2016 1:02 pm

» Government dragging the ASPI down?
by D.G.Dayaratne Mon Feb 01, 2016 10:08 am

» JKH posts satisfactory 3Q but challenges remain
by Varshaa Selvanathan Mon Feb 01, 2016 9:57 am

» BOGA Day??
by karuna Mon Feb 01, 2016 9:54 am

» JKH Two largest foreign shareholders Khazanah Fund or Aberdeen will Not Sell
by Varshaa Selvanathan Mon Feb 01, 2016 9:54 am

» John Keells won't come down, Will go Up only, Excluding Capital gains adjusted Profit for Shareholders 5% Up for Quarterly and 17% Up for Nine Months
by Varshaa Selvanathan Mon Feb 01, 2016 9:30 am

» Megapolis-project-will-develop-Colombo-into-an-economically-powerful-city--PM
by nalban Mon Feb 01, 2016 9:06 am

» Vacancies - China Harbour Eng. Co. Ltd
by sisira.wijeweera Sun Jan 31, 2016 11:27 pm

» FOREX TRADING
by Sha Jahan Sun Jan 31, 2016 8:26 pm


CIFL aiyo salli?

Page 1 of 2 1, 2  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by troy on Mon Mar 11, 2013 2:16 pm

Whats going on? The BIG seller is going on and on... how much does he left with??
Will this downfall end??

troy
Moderator

Posts: 797
Equity Stars: 3713
Reputation: 25
Join date: 2011-09-10
Age: 31
Location: WTC

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Slstock on Mon Mar 11, 2013 2:42 pm

CIFL is oversold now . But that does not matter if someone i s keen to dispose . If this market remains like this ( no real upward activity overall) CIFL can head to Rs 2.5 and even Rs 2.

CIFL NAV was something to consider( but there are many shares at 0.5 NAV) , but that last quarter loss of over Rs 1 for a Share which was Rs 4 was far too much. Usually penny stock make losses of few cent or Rs 0.1 . Rs 1 is shocking.


I can't remember how many times from last year itself I personally told CIFL has serious issues and was not a share to hold. It is only good for trading. Only consolation is this gets easily pushed up during runs as we have seen before. But again if that does not happen soon this can drop 20-30% further.

Unless there is some serious restructuring and cash inflow, I find CIFL is a risky share to hold. More importanly if you have FDs be watchful where the company is heading in the next 2 quarters.



@troy wrote:Whats going on? The BIG seller is going on and on... how much does he left with??
Will this downfall end??

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Posts: 6631
Equity Stars: 10391
Reputation: 1157
Join date: 2011-01-22

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Chinwi on Mon Mar 11, 2013 3:30 pm

An year ago , after the IPO days lot of people wearing CIFL T shirts were seen everywhere offering 24% interest for the new deposits.

Non of them knew anything about the situation faced by pre-IPO depositors .

If this company is continuing to drain its cash like this, what will happen to the money deposited by the latest set of intelligent people ?
( No point of talking about shareholders)

Chinwi
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts: 1975
Equity Stars: 4574
Reputation: 321
Join date: 2010-06-08
Location: Asia

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Arena on Mon Mar 11, 2013 3:39 pm

I think Initial owners will sell sell the company to a cash rich company.

Is laugh looking for financial institution ?

Arena
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts: 705
Equity Stars: 2055
Reputation: 44
Join date: 2012-07-31
Location: Colombo

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Slstock on Mon Mar 11, 2013 3:43 pm

I know they even called people continously ( a nuisance) using agents promoting the company with high interest rates.

Even my elderly mother was a target to a sweet talking girl. Thankfully I warned her much and anyway she wasn't considering anything . But these sweet talking girls must have attracted some people I guess.

CIFL is 45 year old company . Should not be at this level now. :-(



I remember Okanda finance offering 20-30% at times. When a company is offering too good to be true interest rate one needs to watch out.




@Chinwi wrote:An year ago , after the IPO days lot of people wearing CIFL T shirts were seen everywhere offering 24% interest for the new deposits.

Non of them knew anything about the situation faced by pre-IPO depositors .

If this company is continuing to drain its cash like this, what will happen to the money deposited by the latest set of intelligent people ?
( No point of talking about shareholders)

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Posts: 6631
Equity Stars: 10391
Reputation: 1157
Join date: 2011-01-22

Back to top Go down

CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Janaka Gunathilake on Mon Mar 11, 2013 9:57 pm

CIFL prices are going down as they are going to change management

Janaka Gunathilake
Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic

Posts: 17
Equity Stars: 1302
Reputation: 0
Join date: 2012-08-29

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Fresher on Tue Mar 12, 2013 7:29 am

What is their joint venture investment? According to the notes, that has a significant contribution (almost half) to the interest income

Fresher
Moderator

Posts: 1503
Equity Stars: 4507
Reputation: 163
Join date: 2011-02-04

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Jana1 on Tue Mar 12, 2013 11:28 am

Old saying, buying commodities at closing down sale is very cheaper. But people should be caution with what commodity they are buying. I guess CIFL also in its closing down sale....Smile

Jana1
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts: 704
Equity Stars: 2480
Reputation: 37
Join date: 2011-06-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by rainmaker on Tue Mar 12, 2013 11:58 am

npp wrote:What is their joint venture investment? According to the notes, that has a significant contribution (almost half) to the interest income

There was a real estate project in Homagama. ASPIC (major shareholder) of CIFL was advised to buy CIFL's portion out. The buyout is very expensive.

http://www.cifl.lk/product/real_estate.html

rainmaker
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts: 920
Equity Stars: 3233
Reputation: 45
Join date: 2013-02-06

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by sanju351 on Tue Mar 12, 2013 2:46 pm

@Jana1 wrote:Old saying, buying commodities at closing down sale is very cheaper. But people should be caution with what commodity they are buying. I guess CIFL also in its closing down sale....Smile

what ever information ma getting am sharing some times we are also been fooled by others ..everyone should do her his own home work

That is why i called all concern fellows my self - you all can call CIFL HDQ 0114419419 & 0112698888 -
But Jana should have had to clarify the forum why he has mentioned such a serious post if he was not 90% - he stated this is as company closing sale - its very serious and bad as it is totally fabricated story .

CIFL does not have such ideas at all according to their top management they are going in for a major re structuring in the coming months by April end everything will be stable they said !! .

sanju351
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts: 507
Equity Stars: 2194
Reputation: 14
Join date: 2012-04-25
Age: 44

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Slstock on Tue Mar 12, 2013 3:06 pm

Jana1, do you have any confirmed news that CIFL is closigndown or is this your idea. If it is your idea only do not make such statements. There are people here who is burned to skin with CIFL just like PCH, TWOD, GREG.

All of these shares have one thing in common. No real consistent cash generation and due to that they are prone to speculation and stories.


@Jana1 wrote:Old saying, buying commodities at closing down sale is very cheaper. But people should be caution with what commodity they are buying. I guess CIFL also in its closing down sale....Smile

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Posts: 6631
Equity Stars: 10391
Reputation: 1157
Join date: 2011-01-22

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Jana1 on Tue Mar 12, 2013 3:47 pm

@slstock wrote:Jana1, do you have any confirmed news that CIFL is closigndown or is this your idea. If it is your idea only do not make such statements. There are people here who is burned to skin with CIFL just like PCH, TWOD, GREG.

All of these shares have one thing in common. No real consistent cash generation and due to that they are prone to speculation and stories.


@Jana1 wrote:Old saying, buying commodities at closing down sale is very cheaper. But people should be caution with what commodity they are buying. I guess CIFL also in its closing down sale....Smile
@ slstock

I didn't say that they are going to close down their business with any information, I simply mentioned people to be more cautioned who more interested in buying CIFL due to its current nature. Read my comment "I guess" means no fact but future is more questionable. Even I have no intention to say that they are going to close...Smile

I considered below basic facts,

1) Why owner is selling his company if that has future value? - I remember some guys mentioned even the broker company at which he is selling.

2)How could 1 finance company's operating profit could be lost?
I can see two proxies for CIFL, 1) the finance- still survive with government interest. 2) Vanik saga- dead.

3)If that is operating profit shows lost can they break through even if they change their strategy within short time (less than year)? Operating lost means they need more OD it will increase its finance cost finally ended up with debenture as no room for rights.No backing from any parent companies. I believe the big rumour is changing strategy-not sure.

4) As their lost is about 1.4 PER which is 20-25 % of their current asset and the possibility of lost making would be exponentially increase in next quarters for finance companies as their interest expenses increases. Investors should work out how this could be possible- As they gave high interest rate to FD during last year, the present opportunity for highest loan interest is not possible as interest rate came down. So they are making operating lost and this could possible for at-least 3 quarters as most of FD is above 1 year. With loosing market in leasing (however impact is less to CIFL) how could they break through?

@slstock based on da above facts do you think investing in this company is advisable?



Jana1
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts: 704
Equity Stars: 2480
Reputation: 37
Join date: 2011-06-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Slstock on Tue Mar 12, 2013 4:06 pm

Jana1,

I have warned the forum over many months about CIFL. Very much before this crisis. If one search the forum they will see.


I requested you to clarify as people like Sanju has directed his finger at yout comment and they are many people in the forum who has burnt over this even after so much warning. Now they must be in serious heart ache.

As CIFL is manipulated easily and has run over RS 10several times they keep their hopes up and buy this when is pushed up without even knowing what they are doing.


ACtually , until CIFL officially comes up with a plan to restructure , this shares is dangerous. As it is oversold ti can move a bit with a push. But if some big seller comes ... your guess is good as mine.

FD holders need to be very watchfull too.




@Jana1 wrote:
@slstock wrote:Jana1, do you have any confirmed news that CIFL is closigndown or is this your idea. If it is your idea only do not make such statements. There are people here who is burned to skin with CIFL just like PCH, TWOD, GREG.

All of these shares have one thing in common. No real consistent cash generation and due to that they are prone to speculation and stories.


@Jana1 wrote:Old saying, buying commodities at closing down sale is very cheaper. But people should be caution with what commodity they are buying. I guess CIFL also in its closing down sale....Smile
@ slstock

I didn't say that they are going to close down their business with any information, I simply mentioned people to be more cautioned who more interested in buying CIFL due to its current nature. Read my comment "I guess" means no fact but future is more questionable. Even I have no intention to say that they are going to close...Smile

I considered below basic facts,

1) Why owner is selling his company if that has future value? - I remember some guys mentioned even the broker company at which he is selling.

2)How could 1 finance company's operating profit could be lost?
I can see two proxies for CIFL, 1) the finance- still survive with government interest. 2) Vanik saga- dead.

3)If that is operating profit shows lost can they break through even if they change their strategy within short time (less than year)? Operating lost means they need more OD it will increase its finance cost finally ended up with debenture as no room for rights.No backing from any parent companies. I believe the big rumour is changing strategy-not sure.

4) As their lost is about 1.4 PER which is 20-25 % of their current asset and the possibility of lost making would be exponentially increase in next quarters for finance companies as their interest expenses increases. Investors should work out how this could be possible- As they gave high interest rate to FD during last year, the present opportunity for highest loan interest is not possible as interest rate came down. So they are making operating lost and this could possible for at-least 3 quarters as most of FD is above 1 year. With loosing market in leasing (however impact is less to CIFL) how could they break through?

@slstock based on da above facts do you think investing in this company is advisable?



Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Posts: 6631
Equity Stars: 10391
Reputation: 1157
Join date: 2011-01-22

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Jana1 on Tue Mar 12, 2013 4:36 pm

Sorry about that.. I can understand the pain of losing investors..

But my intention was to warn fresh investors who was about to buy at this price level.


@slstock wrote:Jana1,

I have warned the forum over many months about CIFL. Very much before this crisis. If one search the forum they will see.


I requested you to clarify as people like Sanju has directed his finger at yout comment and they are many people in the forum who has burnt over this even after so much warning. Now they must be in serious heart ache.

As CIFL is manipulated easily and has run over RS 10several times they keep their hopes up and buy this when is pushed up without even knowing what they are doing.


ACtually , until CIFL officially comes up with a plan to restructure , this shares is dangerous. As it is oversold ti can move a bit with a push. But if some big seller comes ... your guess is good as mine.

FD holders need to be very watchfull too.




@Jana1 wrote:
@slstock wrote:Jana1, do you have any confirmed news that CIFL is closigndown or is this your idea. If it is your idea only do not make such statements. There are people here who is burned to skin with CIFL just like PCH, TWOD, GREG.

All of these shares have one thing in common. No real consistent cash generation and due to that they are prone to speculation and stories.


@Jana1 wrote:Old saying, buying commodities at closing down sale is very cheaper. But people should be caution with what commodity they are buying. I guess CIFL also in its closing down sale....Smile
@ slstock

I didn't say that they are going to close down their business with any information, I simply mentioned people to be more cautioned who more interested in buying CIFL due to its current nature. Read my comment "I guess" means no fact but future is more questionable. Even I have no intention to say that they are going to close...Smile

I considered below basic facts,

1) Why owner is selling his company if that has future value? - I remember some guys mentioned even the broker company at which he is selling.

2)How could 1 finance company's operating profit could be lost?
I can see two proxies for CIFL, 1) the finance- still survive with government interest. 2) Vanik saga- dead.

3)If that is operating profit shows lost can they break through even if they change their strategy within short time (less than year)? Operating lost means they need more OD it will increase its finance cost finally ended up with debenture as no room for rights.No backing from any parent companies. I believe the big rumour is changing strategy-not sure.

4) As their lost is about 1.4 PER which is 20-25 % of their current asset and the possibility of lost making would be exponentially increase in next quarters for finance companies as their interest expenses increases. Investors should work out how this could be possible- As they gave high interest rate to FD during last year, the present opportunity for highest loan interest is not possible as interest rate came down. So they are making operating lost and this could possible for at-least 3 quarters as most of FD is above 1 year. With loosing market in leasing (however impact is less to CIFL) how could they break through?

@slstock based on da above facts do you think investing in this company is advisable?



Jana1
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts: 704
Equity Stars: 2480
Reputation: 37
Join date: 2011-06-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by knockknobbler on Tue Mar 12, 2013 6:20 pm

I don't think there is any point in discussing , Business Plan ,financial performance, Balance Sheet strength ,future prospects of this type of companies. No investor will touch these.
Like SEMB, BLUE, GREG-W, ...etc, these are the turf of Traders. When You are Trading , ll there are certain rules you have to observe, but the issues you all are discussing above, is immaterial for a Trader.

knockknobbler
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts: 178
Equity Stars: 1267
Reputation: 12
Join date: 2013-02-21

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Slstock on Tue Mar 12, 2013 6:29 pm

You think SEMB is that bad? Did you notice some improvement over the last few quarters?

Also Dr Senthil must have done some study to invest that much. Having a reputed investor in the company is something to consider. It better than not havign one.


Anyway SEMB is the only share below Rs 1 right now. It is too liquid after the warrant and right issues.





@knockknobbler wrote:I don't think there is any point in discussing , Business Plan ,financial performance, Balance Sheet strength ,future prospects of this type of companies. No investor will touch these.
Like SEMB, BLUE, GREG-W, ...etc, these are the turf of Traders. When You are Trading , ll there are certain rules you have to observe, but the issues you all are discussing above, is immaterial for a Trader.

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Posts: 6631
Equity Stars: 10391
Reputation: 1157
Join date: 2011-01-22

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Jana1 on Tue Mar 12, 2013 7:45 pm

Yes SEMB cannot be in that category. But I don't think it improved its bottom line. It was making profit 2009 there after it failed, any improvement is zigzag through out the years. For banking sector this looks over valued share.As per Dr. senthil, he even invested in TFC and Lcem. For him these investments are just peanut and he may not expect much turnaround, if it turns he will push the price and sell it, so his profit from turn around one could compensate the loosing company even it goes bankrupt. Without knowing his strategy, it would be risky to follow sum1.

@slstock wrote:You think SEMB is that bad? Did you notice some improvement over the last few quarters?

Also Dr Senthil must have done some study to invest that much. Having a reputed investor in the company is something to consider. It better than not havign one.


Anyway SEMB is the only share below Rs 1 right now. It is too liquid after the warrant and right issues.





@knockknobbler wrote:I don't think there is any point in discussing , Business Plan ,financial performance, Balance Sheet strength ,future prospects of this type of companies. No investor will touch these.
Like SEMB, BLUE, GREG-W, ...etc, these are the turf of Traders. When You are Trading , ll there are certain rules you have to observe, but the issues you all are discussing above, is immaterial for a Trader.

Jana1
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts: 704
Equity Stars: 2480
Reputation: 37
Join date: 2011-06-17

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by gamaya on Tue Mar 12, 2013 9:16 pm

Even bad companies can have rallies.

Sometimes we may inadvertantly contribute by condemning a share for certain parties to collect at very low levels.

gamaya
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts: 813
Equity Stars: 3744
Reputation: 39
Join date: 2011-01-22

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Slstock on Wed Mar 13, 2013 3:56 am

Less than 1 million to 62 million profit increase is something. Can they continue the trend this year is what is to be watched.

Like Gamaya said any company can have its day when it is listed at CSE. Whether to trade or invest is another decision.


@Jana1 wrote:Yes SEMB cannot be in that category. But I don't think it improved its bottom line. It was making profit 2009 there after it failed, any improvement is zigzag through out the years. For banking sector this looks over valued share.As per Dr. senthil, he even invested in TFC and Lcem. For him these investments are just peanut and he may not expect much turnaround, if it turns he will push the price and sell it, so his profit from turn around one could compensate the loosing company even it goes bankrupt. Without knowing his strategy, it would be risky to follow sum1.

@slstock wrote:You think SEMB is that bad? Did you notice some improvement over the last few quarters?

Also Dr Senthil must have done some study to invest that much. Having a reputed investor in the company is something to consider. It better than not havign one.


Anyway SEMB is the only share below Rs 1 right now. It is too liquid after the warrant and right issues.





@knockknobbler wrote:I don't think there is any point in discussing , Business Plan ,financial performance, Balance Sheet strength ,future prospects of this type of companies. No investor will touch these.
Like SEMB, BLUE, GREG-W, ...etc, these are the turf of Traders. When You are Trading , ll there are certain rules you have to observe, but the issues you all are discussing above, is immaterial for a Trader.

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Posts: 6631
Equity Stars: 10391
Reputation: 1157
Join date: 2011-01-22

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by knockknobbler on Wed Mar 13, 2013 7:29 am

@slstock wrote:You think SEMB is that bad? Did you notice some improvement over the last few quarters?
Also Dr Senthil must have done some study to invest that much. Having a reputed investor in the company is something to consider. It better than not havign one.
Anyway SEMB is the only share below Rs 1 right now. It is too liquid after the warrant and right issues.

I am not saying SEMB is "that bad ". I am looking at the broader picture.
Look at the industry and the industry segment, companies like SEMB are in.
# There are 30 odd listed companies in this financial services ( leasing, hire purchase, private loans ,dealings in property ...) . all are at cut throat competition to attract deposits as well as to grant loans/ leases.
# Since Banks, established finance companies like CFIN ,LFIN are also competing in this market segment, these companies have to offer high rates to attract deposits and they are left over with a client base at the high risk end.
# most of the companies are not having a track record or the backing of a financial heavyweight ( except few like CFIN, LFIN, VFIN , PLC ... ) and are subject to severe strains , if there is rise in interest rates .
#most pressing issue is that the company is subject t collapse overnight, if there is a "run" and subsequent collapse of any one company in the industry.

An investor who is looking for stabity, growth, and returns on a long term basis, will not enter into this type of industry, though some companies within the industry might show good results on quarterly/ annual basis, and indicate consistent improvements.

With regard to Dr Senthil 's involvement in SEMB , he must be there with a specific strategy. Rather than investing in growth prospects, they are essentially dealing in securities, and I doubt whether a retail investor can align his strategy with the strategy of that type of investor.

knockknobbler
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts: 178
Equity Stars: 1267
Reputation: 12
Join date: 2013-02-21

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Slstock on Wed Mar 13, 2013 7:50 am

I agree about the competetion and some of the concerns you raised. But on the other hand smaller companeis if managed well can grow faster and quicker than more established one. Reg SEMB till will only tell. Atleast is had been heading up not down the last few quarters.

I recall SEMB had some alliance with Ashok Leyland. Not sure whether it still exists. LEyland also was not doing well due to economy.

Like I mentioned else where , the decision to invest or trade is up to us. Also SEMB.X warrant conversion was at 2 times current price but few were converted. SEMB.N at Rs 1.



Your below comment 'I do not agree.

@knockknobbler wrote:

An investor who is looking for stabity,
growth, and returns on a long term basis, will not enter into this type
of industry, though some companies within the industry might show good
results on quarterly/ annual basis, and indicate consistent
improvements.



Think about the companies you mentioned CFIN, LFIN, PLC. CFIN has shown consistent growth over decades not years. LFIN after a big turn around from Vanik management , it is giving a good run to CFIN.

PLC is probably the safest due to gov backing.

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Posts: 6631
Equity Stars: 10391
Reputation: 1157
Join date: 2011-01-22

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by knockknobbler on Thu Mar 14, 2013 8:23 am

@slstock wrote:


Your below comment 'I do not agree.


Think about the companies you mentioned CFIN, LFIN, PLC. CFIN has shown consistent growth over decades not years. LFIN after a big turn around from Vanik management , it is giving a good run to CFIN.

PLC is probably the safest due to gov backing.

I agree CFIN has shown consistent growth over decades.

This is exactly the same point, I am making. Think about the industry structure and market conditions during those decades . Finance companies had a distinct market segment for their products /services-. leasing, hire purchase , property loans ,personal loans etc, . The main point is established Banks did not intrude into this area. There were few finance companies ( less than 5 ?) and they were mindful about the risk /return ,since they have developed business practices , expertise over the years.

There was not cut throat competition .The people behind the finance companies were respected and trusted ( even -Kotalawala @TFC). When VANIK was developing liquidity problems, LFIN was not in trouble ,because the operations / management were separate. That's why VANIK was able sell LFIN at a good price, unlike the sale of it's other assets. .
CFIN had another advantage because of their regional presence ( Kandy area ).
Compare the industry structure, market conditions ,then and NOW. Can a rational fund manager conclude that companies like CFIN, LFIN, can maintain same growth rates and risk profile ? I doubt !
With regard to PLC, (I have not studied ) ,but I sense PLC is the most inefficient company in this lot, because it originated from Peoples Bank and it has grown oversize. Recently I heard a person with political connections was appointed as CEO ,paying very high salaries and perks.Probably , you know about the new Chairman and have an idea about his qualification, experience, suitability of leading a business enterprise of this nature. I hope a research / study is available, comparing staff /overhead costs to income , profits and NPL ratios.

knockknobbler
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts: 178
Equity Stars: 1267
Reputation: 12
Join date: 2013-02-21

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Arena on Thu Mar 14, 2013 9:33 am

knockknobbler

Very good comment. Thanks.

VFIN still maintain a 50% + growth over rev. and profit over last year as well. I dont know how they exaggerate the growth like this since we dont see any rushing advertising campaigns or branch expansion like COCR of Lfin. My point is VFIN shows the childhood of LFIN and the people who get a stake will be winners in 3 to 5 years time. That is what Divsa finance has done ( See the top 20 list of VFIN )

And if you take COCR they create new products. See their advertisement on Fixed deposits and Electronic items. This is the first time we saw some thing like this in Sri Lnaka. Any way if you are really aggressive you can beat others in any market.

For an example LFIN now having a portfolio of imported Branded luxury vehicles where they give the vehicle to the buyer with in few days but the leasing should be done through LFIN. They can deliver the vehicle faster than other reputed vehicle sales................Like wise Finance is a sector in which you can create new things to make money. having huge No. of players is not a issue in a growing country as far as the sector is well governed.

Arena
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts: 705
Equity Stars: 2055
Reputation: 44
Join date: 2012-07-31
Location: Colombo

Back to top Go down

Re: CIFL aiyo salli?

Post by Slstock on Thu Mar 14, 2013 10:00 am

Both KK and Arena comments needs to be noted.

When the competition gets tougher the survival of the fittest ( most innovative and aggressive) will win.

Regading VFIN, they have opened 2 new bracnhes within the last 6 months few months. I agree VFIN is going at a very fast rate and has a lot more possibilities to expand. Still trying to figure out why DP wants LFIN and VFIN. Many products are replicating. Does he want to make VFIN grow and sell off or merge with LFIN?

COCR and VFIN seems very potential companiesfor the future. But COCR ambitions are a bit too optimistic. They said they wantto make the share R 280 or something withing 2 or 3 years! Let give a few more quarter to figure out the growth momentum of these companies.




@Arena wrote:knockknobbler

Very good comment. Thanks.

VFIN still maintain a 50% + growth over rev. and profit over last year as well. I dont know how they exaggerate the growth like this since we dont see any rushing advertising campaigns or branch expansion like COCR of Lfin. My point is VFIN shows the childhood of LFIN and the people who get a stake will be winners in 3 to 5 years time. That is what Divsa finance has done ( See the top 20 list of VFIN )

And if you take COCR they create new products. See their advertisement on Fixed deposits and Electronic items. This is the first time we saw some thing like this in Sri Lnaka. Any way if you are really aggressive you can beat others in any market.

For an example LFIN now having a portfolio of imported Branded luxury vehicles where they give the vehicle to the buyer with in few days but the leasing should be done through LFIN. They can deliver the vehicle faster than other reputed vehicle sales................Like wise Finance is a sector in which you can create new things to make money. having huge No. of players is not a issue in a growing country as far as the sector is well governed.

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics

Posts: 6631
Equity Stars: 10391
Reputation: 1157
Join date: 2011-01-22

Back to top Go down

CIFL pricees further down

Post by Janaka Gunathilake on Thu Mar 14, 2013 1:10 pm

Cifl prices are going down.when it will be stop that down

Janaka Gunathilake
Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic

Posts: 17
Equity Stars: 1302
Reputation: 0
Join date: 2012-08-29

Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 2 1, 2  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
Top posting users this week
prabath
 
Joe007
 
karuna
 
Gainer
 
SUSPENS
 
VALUEPICK
 
Chinwi
 
vic19
 
GMNet
 
Jana
 

Who is online?
In total there are 82 users online :: 2 Registered, 1 Hidden and 79 Guests

deen, prabath

[ View the whole list ]


Most users ever online was 541 on Mon Sep 19, 2011 11:29 am
Statistics
We have 13595 registered users
The newest registered user is DaniellaCardoz

Our users have posted a total of 292327 messages in 45214 subjects
Forum Rules & Guidelines
Sri Lanka Equity Analytic
Disclaimer

The information contained in this forum have been submitted by third parties directly without any verification by us. The information available in this forum is not researched or purported to be complete description of the subject matter referred to herein. We do not under any circumstances whatsoever guarantee the accuracy and completeness information contained herein.

www.srilankaequity.com its blogs, forums, subdomains and/or its affiliates and/or its web masters, administrators or moderators shall not in any way be responsible or liable for loss or damage which any person or party may sustain or incur by relying on the contents of this report and acting directly or indirectly in any manner whatsoever.

Trading or investing in stocks & commodities is a high risk activity. Any action you choose to take in the markets is totally your own responsibility, www.srilankaequity.com its blogs, forums, subdomains and/or its affiliates and/or its web masters, administrators or moderators shall not be liable for any, direct or indirect, consequential or incidental damages or loss arising out of the use of this information. The information on this website is neither an offer to sell nor solicitation to buy any of the securities mentioned herein. The writers may or may not be trading in the securities mentioned.