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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Expert Chamber » A walk down memory lane .....

A walk down memory lane .....

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1 A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 2:13 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
I fished out an old Colombo Brokers Association Hand book of Rupee companies from 1979-1983.
If you need a blast from the past, I will be happy to give you statistics from that era.

Kicking it of with details for Buki in FY 1978/1979

Profit - Rs 2.5 million
Number of shares issued - 100,000 (increased to 400,000 in 1979/1980)
NAV - Rs 333
EPS - Rs 25
Dividend - Rs 12.50
Share Price as at 31st March 1979 - Rs 55

They dont come so cheap anymore i guess ! Smile

adding further.... (1979 details)

1 usd = Rs 15.55 in 1979 (34 years later 1 usd = 126)
Gold = usd 307 per ounce cumulative average price (34 years later = approx 1400 per ounce)
Prime Havelock Road real estate (30 perch + house) = Rs 1.8 Million (Today Rs 150 Million ?)

Rs 55 invested in Buki in 1979 = Rs 720,000 in 2013
usd 3.50 invested in Buki in 1979 = usd 5700 in 2013

In 1979, Microsoft IPO happened at usd 27 per share
In 2000, Microsoft was trading split adjusted at usd 3375, up 125 times in 21 years !



Last edited by The Alchemist on Sat May 25, 2013 12:00 am; edited 3 times in total

2 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 3:39 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
79 කාලේ විතරක් නෙවි 1983 කලබල කාලෙන් පස්සේ 84/86 කාලෙත් ඔය සමහර වටිනා ශේයාස් ඉතාම අඩුවට ගන්න අවස්ථාව ආවා .
කොහෙද අපි දන්නේ නැහැනේ.

දැන් වගේ නෙවි . පරණ කොම්පැනි පනත අනුව ඒ දිනවල වසරෙන් වසර බෝනස් ශේයාස් පැටවූ ගහනවා .
1985 මගේ එක මාසෙක පඩියෙන් කොටස් අරගෙන තිබුන නම් අද මිලියන් ගානක් .
ඒ දවස්වල තනිකඩ මගේ ඉඳුම් හිටුම් කෑම බිම ට්‍රාන්ස්පෝර්ට් සියල්ලටම ගියේ පඩියෙන් බාගයයි.

see http://www.cse.lk/company_info.do for CARS

All time low 27.50
All time high 22,000.00



Last edited by Chinwi on Fri May 24, 2013 3:56 pm; edited 1 time in total

3 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 3:44 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Dimo in FY 1978/1979

Profit - Rs 8.8 million
Number of shares issued - 500,000
NAV - Rs 30
EPS - Rs 17
Dividend - Rs 2
Share Price as at 31st March 1979 - Rs 12

4 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 3:52 pm

Bond


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
The days before people got obsessed about PE ratios

Have you got the shareholder register of Carson related firms? Love to know who bought who first .... Was it Bukit or Carsons

I suspect Bukit was initially controlled and then it bought Carsons .... that is instead of giving funds to minority shareholders it solidified the strength of a controlling shareholder

5 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 3:55 pm

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
දැන් ඉන්න තරුණ අයත් තව වසර 20-30 යනකොට මේ වගේ කියන්න පුළුවන් වෙන කොටස් මොනවද කියල හොයා ගන්න එක හොඳයි .
නිකමට අරගෙන දාල අමතක කරලා ඉන්න.
ඔය මල් කඩන්න , රිංග් ටෝන් දාගන්න විසි කරන සල්ලි වලින්.

6 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 4:11 pm

balapas


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Still lot of people do not know about the share market. Last week a 25 year old guy asked me whats the best share these days and he thought highest priced share is the best share. He is an engineer so an educated guy. Not the only time I came across someone like this. Thing is brokers trap guys like this with crap shares and they then stay away for good from the market.

7 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 4:12 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Richard Peiris (RICH) in FY 1978/1979

Profit - Rs 3.7 million
Number of shares issued - 458,400 + 200,000 Preference shares
NAV - Rs 60
EPS - Rs 5.6
Dividend - Rs 1.60
Share Price as at 31st March 1979 - Rs 9

Do you notice that although price 34 years ago is similar today, the 458,400 issued shares is now nearly 2 Billion shares, gone up nearly 4400 times !

8 A walk down memory lane on Fri May 24, 2013 4:23 pm

NEM

NEM
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
If you had 1 share of Buki in 1979, today you have 1020 shares.
1979 invested 55 rupees on BUKI, you have got Rs 714000 today.

If you invested the same amount on RICH in 1979 (55 rupees), Today you have 17670 shares.
value is Rs 132525 today



Last edited by NEM on Fri May 24, 2013 4:25 pm; edited 1 time in total

9 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 4:23 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
You still have a 34 year old Broker guide at home!


Oh my god what info :-)

BUKI
NAV 333 , EPS 25 and Dividend 12.5 ( 50% dividend against eps ) and share price is Rs 55 !

PB : 0.16, dividend yield 25%, PE 2.


Sound like a dream. Sound like TWOD now except for dividend and management ;-).


Make all current shares in 2013 overvalued.

Also 400,000 shares ! Illquidity would not have been a concern with 1000 investors haha.

Alchem was your father an investor then( and maybe bought BUKI)? You would be a billionaoir

10 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 4:36 pm

Slstock

Slstock
Director - Equity Analytics
Director - Equity Analytics
This one takes the cake so far.

PBV : 0.4
PE : 0.6
Dividend yield : 16%.

Maybe we can do a take over . Mr Algamas and Pandithages can you sell you shares at 50% price premium ( double the price) ?




@The Alchemist wrote:Dimo in FY 1978/1979

Profit - Rs 8.8 million
Number of shares issued - 500,000
NAV - Rs 30
EPS - Rs 17
Dividend - Rs 2
Share Price as at 31st March 1979 - Rs 12

11 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 4:45 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Central Finance (CFIN) in FY 1978/1979

Profit - Rs 1.8 million
Number of shares issued - 304,500
NAV - Rs 28
EPS - Rs 5.9
Dividend - Rs 2.40
Share Price as at 31st March 1979 - Rs 14

12 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 4:53 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
COMMERCIAL BANK (COMB) in FY 1978/1979

Profit - Rs 23.5 million
Number of shares issued - 1 Million
NAV - Rs 54
EPS - Rs 23.50
Dividend - Rs 2.50
Share Price as at 31st March 1979 - Rs 26 (high 26 - low 14.50)

13 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 4:58 pm

seek


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
OK that's the history. I would like to tell a same story to my sons from another 20 years time. At that time I'll be at TheAlchemist's and Chinwi's age and you guys will be kids in next life Smile (just kidding. Wish you a long life) Who is the fast growing baby now? VONE ?

14 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 5:16 pm

taniya1111


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
What all those figures are saying that the shares are the best long term investment. But more importantly you have to choose correct stock to in vest. All above are now history.
It is better if we can point out next generations winners. I would like to point out some middle level companies which has the potential to be next generation winners. But it all depend on the perfect management of the company. LGL, HPWR, COCO, CFVF are my choices

15 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 5:25 pm

seek


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
I don't think CFVF is a growing company. It has a cyclicle business. It seems you have bought it back. Is that you put 85,000 order at 16 on wednesday?.

16 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 5:31 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
DFCC in FY 1978/1979

Profit - Rs 12.5 million
Number of shares issued - 240,000 @ Rs 100/-
NAV - Rs 210
EPS - Rs 52
Dividend - Rs 12
Share Price as at 31st March 1979 - not available - i think allotment in 82/83
Share Price as at 31st March 1983 - high 92, low 84 - allotment price 120 ?

17 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 5:40 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
HNB in FY 1978/1979

Profit - Rs 19 million
Number of shares issued - 500,000 (increased to 1 million shares in 79/80)
NAV - Rs 87
EPS - Rs 38
Dividend - Rs 4
Share Price as at 31st March 1979 - Rs 16

18 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 6:03 pm

WildBear


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Today's Giant stocks traded at P/E ratios less than 1 those days.

19 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 6:30 pm

kukumarx


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
JKH was first listed in the late 8o's. The issue price was Rs 10/- per share. I wonder what that 10 Re share will be worth now(with dividends & bonus) !

Also Nest issued shares in the early 80's. You got LSD (lump sum depreciation) if you bought the share. That is you could write off the entire amount of shares brought and reduce your taxable income. My father bought about 4000 shares then for the princely sum of Rs 40,000/-. The share struggled for years and he finally sold later for Rs 21 per share. If he had held on!

But at the same time he also bought Taj. Same set up (LSD). Didn't get him anywhere! Now only Rs 30 (30 years later)

Win some- loose some. But thinking back, more winners than loosers.

20 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 6:54 pm

Antonym

Antonym
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
I think there's a lesson in this for us: Hold on!

But before that, we need to do our own research, understand the profitability & longevity of the business that we are buying into, do a SWOT analysis, check out the professionalism of the management. You should invest your hard earned money only if the company makes the grade on all parameters.

If buying a share is just a short term fling, it doesn't matter that much. But when the intent is a long term commitment, you better be sure about what you are getting into.

21 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 6:55 pm

Kithsiri

Kithsiri
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:දැන් ඉන්න තරුණ අයත් තව වසර 20-30 යනකොට මේ වගේ කියන්න පුළුවන් වෙන කොටස් මොනවද කියල හොයා ගන්න එක හොඳයි .
නිකමට අරගෙන දාල අමතක කරලා ඉන්න.
ඔය මල් කඩන්න , රිංග් ටෝන් දාගන්න විසි කරන සල්ලි වලින්.
Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

22 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 7:19 pm

traderathome

traderathome
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
I have been telling my daughter and son..and also letting them see what i do....hopefully they will take up into equity investment..... Very Happy

23 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 7:50 pm

anu

anu
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Lovely thread...thanks to Alchem.

Those are the days the investment were confined largely at institutional level and a privileged few at personal investor level..

24 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 8:42 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
The Ceylon Brewery Ltd (BREW) in FY 1978/1979

Profit - Rs 2.6 million
Number of shares issued - 504,976
NAV - Rs 31
EPS - Rs 5.15
Dividend - Rs 1.75
Share Price as at 31st March 1979 - Rs 10 (high 15, low 10)

25 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 8:49 pm

sahan8896


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Is there a place to get share price from the first date of trading?

26 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 8:52 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Ceylon Tobacco Limited (CTC) in FY 1978/1979

Profit - Rs 26 million
Number of shares issued - 10,240,000
NAV - Rs 14.40
EPS - Rs 2.53
Dividend - Rs 1.60
Share Price as at 31st March 1979 - Rs 8 (high 15, low Cool
low price is rs 8 - i dont know how that smiley icon got there !

27 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 8:58 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Acme Aluminium (Acme) in FY 1978/1979

Profit - Rs 3.7 million
Number of shares issued - 548,856
NAV - Rs 26
EPS - Rs 6.75
Dividend - Rs 1.50
Share Price as at 31st March 1979 - Rs 10 (high 17, low 10)

28 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 9:07 pm

sahan8896


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
The Alchemist,where are you getting these figures?

29 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 9:08 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
ACL in FY 1978/1979

Profit - Rs 658,700
Number of shares issued - 160,020
NAV - Rs 31.44
EPS - Rs 4.11
Dividend - Rs 1.50
Share Price as at 31st March 1979 - Rs 11 (high 15, low 11.5)

30 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 9:11 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@sahan8896 wrote:The Alchemist,where are you getting these figures?

Please look at my opening comments at the beginning of this entire thread.

31 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 9:16 pm

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
@The Alchemist wrote:I fished out an old Colombo Brokers Association Hand book of Rupee companies from 1979-1983.
If you need a blast from the past, I will be happy to give you statistics from that era.

Kicking it of with details for Buki in FY 1978/1979

Profit - Rs 2.5 million
Number of shares issued - 100,000 (increased to 400,000 in 1979/1980)
NAV - Rs 333
EPS - Rs 25
Dividend - Rs 12.50
Share Price as at 31st March 1979 - Rs 55

They dont come so cheap anymore i guess ! Smile

adding further....

I think 1 usd = Rs 20 in 1979 (can someone reconfirm this ?)
Rs 55 invested in Buki in 1979 = Rs 720,000 in 2013
usd 2.50 invested in Buki in 1979 = usd 5700 in 2013

In 1979, Microsoft IPO happened at usd 27 per share
In 2000, Microsoft was trading split adjusted at usd 3375, up 125 times in 21 years !

1979 start and year end currency rates.


http://www.tititudorancea.com/

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

32 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 9:23 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@ Sriranga - Thanks ! Thats super info. so 1 USD = Rs 15.55. (in 1979)
I was looking all over the net for this but could not find !
You truly are a master !

33 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 10:36 pm

Jiggysaurus

Jiggysaurus
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:
ඔය මල් කඩන්න , රිංග් ටෝන් දාගන්න විසි කරන සල්ලි වලින්.


ayyo Chinwi tharuna kale mal kadanne nathuwa marunata passe mal kadandada kiyanna?

just as there are good stories about holding shares for centuries there is the other side as well.
in 90s VANI was supposed to be the next JKH, shares worth 100 rupees turned into zero in around 7 years.
even three years ago Greggers was the hot number with the crap mine story, shares worth 150+ turned into 20- in around 3 years.
Better to pick flowers than buy shares like that.

34 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 10:44 pm

kukumarx


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Jiggysaurus wrote:
@Chinwi wrote:
ඔය මල් කඩන්න , රිංග් ටෝන් දාගන්න විසි කරන සල්ලි වලින්.


ayyo Chinwi tharuna kale mal kadanne nathuwa marunata passe mal kadandada kiyanna?

just as there are good stories about holding shares for centuries there is the other side as well.
in 90s VANI was supposed to be the next JKH, shares worth 100 rupees turned into zero in around 7 years.
even three years ago Greggers was the hot number with the crap mine story, shares worth 150+ turned into 20- in around 3 years.
Better to pick flowers than buy shares like that.

JKH grew by Di-versification-
For Vanik it was Di-worse-sification

They borrowed and borrowed and borrowed at high interest rates and grew aggressively and couldn't sustain when the slowdown came.

35 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Fri May 24, 2013 11:52 pm

Leon


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Very interesting alchem... For genuine investors the real challenge is to pick the correct value shares which are going to be the winners in the next decade. But to do so, what are the man factors to be looked into?? Coz in the long run EPS,PE and NAV may not be the "Most Important".

36 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Sat May 25, 2013 12:08 am

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Very Interesting Info friend, wish i also could have bought some shares in 78/79, but the main concern was even my parents not married that time!

37 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Sat May 25, 2013 12:42 am

nalaka_sg


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I strongly believe that next 20 to 30 years of this country more exiting than past 30 or 20 years.

we learned lot of things in hard-way (the evil of nationalism, Marxism, racism and terrorism) while other nations prosper learning from our mistakes (Malaysia,, Singapore and most east Asian countries). but learning form that way is much better than learning by others mistakes. I feel like economy,history, strength and existence of a country is much similar stock market. time to time there will be bear and bull ..but in long term we growing. that's how we survive almost 3000 years. Sad Sad sad we were born in wrong time.


38 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Sat May 25, 2013 12:47 am

taniya1111


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@seek wrote:I don't think CFVF is a growing company. It has a cyclicle business. It seems you have bought it back. Is that you put 85,000 order at 16 on wednesday?.
It was not me who placed 85,000 buying order at 16, I am not buying or selling large quantities at once, I dont want to promote those shares as i have never had some shares i mentioned and i dont have any of mentioned shares at the moment. At the moment cfvf can't be considered as a growing company but as i think it has the potential to be a future winner, its management is not that bad either. they have got orient finance and DNH finance with them. So what they have to do is to expand their business more, specially to be a leading finance company while investing on bonds.

39 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Sat May 25, 2013 6:58 pm

The Alchemist


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@The Alchemist wrote:
In 1979, 1 usd = Rs 15.55
In 2000, 1 usd = Rs 90

In 1979, Gold = usd 307 per ounce (average price)
In 1979, Prime Havelock Road Real Estate (30 perch + house) = Rs 1.8 Million

In 1979, Microsoft IPO happened at usd 27 per share
In 2000, Microsoft was trading split adjusted at usd 3375, up 125 times in 21 years !
In 1979, Buki which had 100,000 shares issued was trading at Rs 55 on 31st March 1979
In 2000, Buki which has 400,000 shares issued was trading at Rs 400 on 31st March 2000


Maths Question for anyone interested (or otherwise bored) -

Given above data, between 1979 and now, Rs 1 hypothetically invested in 1979 (and actively managed) could have amounted to how much now ?

Note - Rs 1 Hypothetically invested in 1979 does not mean literally or actually Rs 1 !

40 Re: A walk down memory lane ..... on Sat May 25, 2013 7:23 pm

sriranga

sriranga
Co-Admin
@kukumarx wrote:JKH was first listed in the late 8o's. The issue price was Rs 10/- per share. I wonder what that 10 Re share will be worth now(with dividends & bonus) !

Also Nest issued shares in the early 80's. You got LSD (lump sum depreciation) if you bought the share. That is you could write off the entire amount of shares brought and reduce your taxable income. My father bought about 4000 shares then for the princely sum of Rs 40,000/-. The share struggled for years and he finally sold later for Rs 21 per share. If he had held on!

But at the same time he also bought Taj. Same set up (LSD). Didn't get him anywhere! Now only Rs 30 (30 years later)

Win some- loose some. But thinking back, more winners than loosers.






Source: JKH Annual Reports 2004 & 2012

http://sharemarket-srilanka.blogspot.co.uk/

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