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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Taking leave from the MARKET

Taking leave from the MARKET

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1 Taking leave from the MARKET on Fri Sep 04, 2015 10:09 am

Prince

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@StockGuru wrote:Sources note New National Government lead by Sirisena-Ranil which is mainly controlled by Ranil Wickremesinghe has assured Sri Lanka's Premier Bluechip Conglomerate John Keells Holdings to continue with its Cinnamon Life Mega Casino and Mixed Development allowing to maintain a Casino in Cinnamon Life as long as the Casino is owned by a Foreigner and operated by a Foreigner!


This is a totally a misleading post made with some selfish intentions. ( I suspect you must be holding W.22 and desperate to make the exit )

Correct news is that , USA based  ABERDEEN FUND  is making the exit from Colombo . ( may be a percentage they are selling. but who knows waht is the percentage ? )
That's the reason for JKH coming down for Rs 175/=   . You will witness this price many times in coming days. Also they are selling COMB , SAMP in the same way.

I am sad to say that current political development in the country is very fragile and I personally have no interest at all to engage in the CSE till I feel my money is safe.

In coming days we will see

1) increase in INTEREST RATES
2) USD dollar reaching Rs 150/=
3) hike in fuel charges


There is a 99 % chance of that CSE is making a correction in this month , so that I made my exit on day before yesterday.

This might be my last post in this forum for a few months time as I'm going to take leave from the market.

- Thanks . GL

PrinceSenior Manager - Equity Analytics


Posts: 338
Equity Stars: 2268
Reputation: 40
Join date: 2011-04-20
Location: Colombo


2 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Fri Sep 04, 2015 10:32 am

anjelo

avatar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
hmmmmm.... something to think on...

3 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Fri Sep 04, 2015 10:59 am

heroshan perera


Stock Trader
we have to wait some time to get knowledge from prince please share your knowledge with me heroshanp@cclk.lk

4 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Fri Sep 04, 2015 11:21 am

Chinwi

avatar
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Street $hitters - Allapu rata - are controlling everything in Siri Lanka. Here, just a puppet show.

We cannot predict what will happen next.

I'm not sure about the Aberdeen news but big funds and investors usually run away from this kind of places.

5 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Fri Sep 04, 2015 11:26 am

sureshot

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
buy when others sell.......

6 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Thu Nov 17, 2016 1:19 pm

Prince

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
So then ....  I'am back...!!!  


Who are the victims of JKH ????

7 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Thu Nov 17, 2016 1:55 pm

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
Prince, you are back in office at CSE then, is it. Now you are starting to work again and confident that the risks highlighted in the morning is going to be addressed or you are preparing to catch falling golds at an even lower rate.

8 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Thu Nov 17, 2016 2:12 pm

kassachandimal


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
EC can u please answer my question in da poultry thread

9 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Thu Nov 17, 2016 3:50 pm

Prince

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
hey EC

For last one and half years I was wondering whats going to be happend to the CSE when ever I hear the boasting of so called " Doctors " " Experts " of Economy in the Yahapaalana.
I made the correct decision of exiting the market at the correct time and invested all money in expected interest high Savings.
Now I am back and trying to explore some falling Gold as you correctly said, but still not the time for my knowledge.
In the morning I made a prediction of Wallstreet type mis-hap in 2017. I know all of retailers currently in the market even dont want to hear a such a thing but we have to face the reality. Best thing is to preapre for the Worst and take what ever precautions by now itself rather than wait for the Dooms day. Smile

10 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Thu Nov 17, 2016 4:07 pm

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
Prince, the thing is CSE was falling ever since it reached its all time high in February 2011. If we look at any capital market around the world we could see cycles and these cycles span normally two to three years. That is if a stock market experienced a boom for say two to three years the next two to three years will be a doom and again will back to boom and establish a new high. But in CSE we are into the sixth consecutive year of doom in 2016 which means a time span of two years in one cycle. That's why I named this as an extended bear market. So by looking at how corporate earnings are growing and how the GDP is growing there should be a boom cycle very very soon. And I optimistically not expect the doom cycle will extend to its seventh consecutive year. Increase in taxes, forex devaluations, exchange rate hikes, government destabilizations, etc are common macro economic risk factors faced by any country any point of time but the market pattern has to happen. For example look at Pakistan. There are endless political issues, endless financial issues  but this year their stock market is booming. So I am expecting the improbable soon.

11 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Thu Nov 17, 2016 4:56 pm

Prince

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
oh o ..

Respect your knowledge EC. but all that past experience and theories cannot be applied to the CSE. 
Economy is in a critical situation for my knowledge. ( I am working for a Financial Institute ) .
You must be mislead by the 9 months corporate results currently published and your expectation of a Booming CSE is a deravative of that results , I assume.
Yes , 9 months were solid on COMB , HNB , SAMP , LFIN and some more corporates. But with the ongoing economical factors and the business unfavourable Budget Proposals will definetely cut down profits by good 20% - 50% in coming financial year.
So its extended 7th year as you said or a Wallstreet type mis-hap as I predicted Y2017.

12 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Thu Nov 17, 2016 8:22 pm

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
Ok Prince I know what you are referring to.

Can you list down the business unfavorable budget proposals you are referring here. Also can you tell the economic factors expected to worse off in next year.

I will give my feed back. I have just concluded a presentation on budget proposals.

Thanks

13 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Fri Nov 18, 2016 9:31 am

Prince

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Since you asked me , here are some of the proposals unfavourable for Banks/Finance/Insurance sector.


1) Banks directed to ensure that at least 10% of their lending portfolio is for Agriculture, 10% for SME, 10% for Exports, 10% for Tourism, 5% for Youth and 5% for Women. Further, banks directed to lend at least 15% of the deposits within the same area for business development



2)It was proposed to introduce a new levy called Financial Transaction Levy (FTL) as a contribution for social development at the rate of LKR5 per LKR10,000 on the total cash transactions including easy cash by banks and other financial institutions. FTL will be treated as expenditure for income tax purpose


3)Proposal to restrict the Loan to Value ratio (LTV) as follows: Three Wheelers 25%, Motor Cars and Vans 50%, Commercial Vehicles (Lorries and Heavy Vehicles) 90%




Further, following proposals will directly make an impact on Share Market:

Tax on Interest & Dividend Income;

1) All dividends paid will be liable for a dividend tax of 14%
2) Notional Tax Credits will not be given on Interest received on Government securities.
3) Net Interest income accrues on Instrument including Corporate Debt Securities liable for Tax.
4) Exemption given for Dividends and Interest will be removed.
5) Profit from investment on listed securities will be liable for tax.
6) Dividends on unit Trust/Mutual Funds will be liable for tax.


Above number 5) indicates that a capital gain tax on securities traded in the Market.

14 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Fri Nov 18, 2016 1:07 pm

Ryan Hudson


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
time to buy c?ocr is it

15 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Fri Nov 18, 2016 1:08 pm

Ryan Hudson


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
cocr whats happening

16 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Fri Nov 18, 2016 1:10 pm

Ryan Hudson


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
is ther any news cocr

17 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Fri Nov 18, 2016 1:29 pm

Ryan Hudson


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
cocr 5:1 buyer seller ratio

18 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Fri Nov 18, 2016 1:54 pm

ifenny

avatar
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@Ryan Hudson...Dont spoil a valuable thread on current market/economic situation with in depth analysis by Prince and EC buy posting your crap COCR promotions.
Open a new thread if you want to discuss COCR please...

19 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Fri Nov 18, 2016 2:05 pm

Ryan Hudson


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
is this a valuable thread? taking leave from markert? go to hell? Cocr is much more improtant

20 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Fri Nov 18, 2016 2:06 pm

Ryan Hudson


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
if you dont know stock market just dont blabber like a mad man

21 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Fri Nov 18, 2016 2:07 pm

Ryan Hudson


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
again my question is there any news with regard to cocr

22 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Fri Nov 18, 2016 2:33 pm

darrenadanm


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@Prince wrote:Since you asked me , here are some of the proposals unfavourable for Banks/Finance/Insurance sector.


1) Banks directed to ensure that at least 10% of their lending portfolio is for Agriculture, 10% for SME, 10% for Exports, 10% for Tourism, 5% for Youth and 5% for Women. Further, banks directed to lend at least 15% of the deposits within the same area for business development



2)It was proposed to introduce a new levy called Financial Transaction Levy (FTL) as a contribution for social development at the rate of LKR5 per LKR10,000 on the total cash transactions including easy cash by banks and other financial institutions. FTL will be treated as expenditure for income tax purpose


3)Proposal to restrict the Loan to Value ratio (LTV) as follows: Three Wheelers 25%, Motor Cars and Vans 50%, Commercial Vehicles (Lorries and Heavy Vehicles) 90%




Further, following proposals will directly make an impact on Share Market:

Tax on Interest & Dividend Income;

1) All dividends paid will be liable for a dividend tax of 14%
2) Notional Tax Credits will not be given on Interest received on Government securities.
3) Net Interest income accrues on Instrument including Corporate Debt Securities liable for Tax.
4) Exemption given for Dividends and Interest will be removed.
5) Profit from investment on listed securities will be liable for tax.
6) Dividends on unit Trust/Mutual Funds will be liable for tax.


Above number 5) indicates that a capital gain tax on securities traded in the Market.




hmmm, good explanation...Prince, whats your thought on current Sri lankan debt ? some says that we are in a similar situation like Greece when its on 2011...and Sri Lankan credit rating is negative; and if we step in to the path of Greece, then no point of talking about budget or government policies.. increase corruption and decrease of FDI will boost to become another Greece..what's your thoughts on this ? And the muslim, Tamil extremism is rising again, and a new federal constitution is on its way...and ETCA...Present situation is not good, and the foreign investors know it...





Moody'sB1negativeJun 20 2016
TE38positiveApr 16 2016
S&PB+negativeMar 10 2016
FitchB+negativeFeb 29 2016



Last edited by darrenadanm on Fri Nov 18, 2016 2:37 pm; edited 2 times in total

23 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Fri Nov 18, 2016 2:36 pm

Ryan Hudson


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
to the economic guy(ravige malli wenna athi), stop trying to predict the direction of sock market, economy or elections, ok got the point?

24 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Fri Nov 18, 2016 2:38 pm

darrenadanm


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@Ryan Hudson wrote:to the economic guy(ravige malli wenna athi), stop trying to predict the direction of sock market, economy or elections, ok got the point?


to whom are you talking ?  Shocked

25 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Fri Nov 18, 2016 2:52 pm

ifenny

avatar
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@Ryan - If you do not know how to open a new thread, I can do it for you Smile ... post only what is relevant to the thread...

26 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Fri Nov 18, 2016 3:14 pm

Ryan Hudson


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
to ifenny

to the economic guy(ravige malli wenna athi), stop trying to predict the direction of sock market, economy or elections, ok got the point?


Ryan HudsonSenior Manager - Equity Analytics


Posts : 420
Equity Stars : 1196
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2015-02-12

27 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Fri Nov 18, 2016 5:13 pm

Chinwi

avatar
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@Prince wrote:oh o ..

Respect your knowledge EC. but all that past experience and theories cannot be applied to the CSE. 
Economy is in a critical situation for my knowledge. ( I am working for a Financial Institute ) .
You must be mislead by the 9 months corporate results currently published and your expectation of a Booming CSE is a deravative of that results , I assume.
Yes , 9 months were solid on COMB , HNB , SAMP , LFIN and some more corporates. But with the ongoing economical factors and the business unfavourable Budget Proposals will definetely cut down profits by good 20% - 50% in coming financial year.
So its extended 7th year as you said or a Wallstreet type mis-hap as I predicted Y2017.

This is similar to what I am thinking at the moment. Current results can mislead people.

The developing situation can take most of the companies in leasing , banking and trading sectors to low income area.

for eg. I always follow CFVF ; they have invested hugely in their business this time and reported good profit this qtr. They may do same in next qtr. and people may go like bulls.
At the meantime we are heading for increasing interest rates era due to super smart financial management skills of the rulers.

Hence I refrain from buying in big quantities, any share. During last 2 years I bought (and hold ) mainly the activated Carbon export business managed by Mr Sudath Pasqual.

Due to current raining I may go for some HPWR in addition to my current holding.
--
I wrote in a closed blog with strong supporters and activists of the current Govt. - my personal friends- that 2017 will be the decisive year for them.

28 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Fri Nov 18, 2016 6:50 pm

Ryan Hudson


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
budget passed witn overwhelming majority, so country to the fore with belt tightened budget, aiyo siro, marathon running hitan

29 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Sat Nov 19, 2016 8:12 pm

Yahapalanaya

avatar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Pundits started to put negative comments and attack people's government.They will do these things up to Christmas and New Year.Their Santa started.. Smile.We have seen last year too.They said country bankrupted ,CSE dead,government gone,etc,etc.Only gone thosewho promoted crab shares.We show those people vanished now.

There are undervalued shares.Example ACL was selling 80 last year before division.So current cost of that share 40.Still undervalued share trading at 61.These are the opportunities for collection.

You will understand aim of negative negative comments writers if you read their comments for last 1 or 2 years.

We have seen lots of people come and leave CSE.But we real investors are with CSE whether it is up or down.We love correction too.


Let's dog bark.We love you CSE.

30 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Sat Nov 19, 2016 10:26 pm

Ryan Hudson


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
This is not peoples government, this is kamba hora government

31 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Sat Nov 19, 2016 10:27 pm

Ryan Hudson


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
now this ranil's friend aloysius started buy in big time some sotcks like ndb and rajitha threaten to put aloysius to prison then ranil also in prison

32 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Sun Nov 20, 2016 4:28 pm

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
@Prince wrote:Since you asked me , here are some of the proposals unfavourable for Banks/Finance/Insurance sector.


1) Banks directed to ensure that at least 10% of their lending portfolio is for Agriculture, 10% for SME, 10% for Exports, 10% for Tourism, 5% for Youth and 5% for Women. Further, banks directed to lend at least 15% of the deposits within the same area for business development



2)It was proposed to introduce a new levy called Financial Transaction Levy (FTL) as a contribution for social development at the rate of LKR5 per LKR10,000 on the total cash transactions including easy cash by banks and other financial institutions. FTL will be treated as expenditure for income tax purpose


3)Proposal to restrict the Loan to Value ratio (LTV) as follows: Three Wheelers 25%, Motor Cars and Vans 50%, Commercial Vehicles (Lorries and Heavy Vehicles) 90%




Further, following proposals will directly make an impact on Share Market:

Tax on Interest & Dividend Income;

1) All dividends paid will be liable for a dividend tax of 14%
2) Notional Tax Credits will not be given on Interest received on Government securities.
3) Net Interest income accrues on Instrument including Corporate Debt Securities liable for Tax.
4) Exemption given for Dividends and Interest will be removed.
5) Profit from investment on listed securities will be liable for tax.
6) Dividends on unit Trust/Mutual Funds will be liable for tax.


Above number 5) indicates that a capital gain tax on securities traded in the Market.

Point number 1 is about rebalancing the bank's portfolio mix. And the interest yield will adjust depend on the risk level. Don't think that this is very negative for banks.

Point number two is going to be addressed directly through passing the cost to customers through slight increase in interest rates. I confirmed this with my bank manager

Point three impact can't predict as of now since it requires time to asses the ral impact

Tax on interest and dividends are directly applied to consumers like us. the  impact on banks will be low as these are not the core businesses of them. Profit from investment on listed securities to be taxed is the debated and again this is directly relating to you and me. Waiting to see the definition for this and the Capital Gain.

Thanks

33 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Sun Nov 20, 2016 7:15 pm

DANIDU


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Yahapalanaya wrote:Pundits started to put negative comments and attack people's government.They will do these things up to Christmas and New Year.Their Santa started.. Smile.We have seen last year too.They said country bankrupted ,CSE dead,government gone,etc,etc.Only gone thosewho promoted crab shares.We show those people vanished now.

There are undervalued shares.Example ACL was selling 80 last year before division.So current cost of that share 40.Still undervalued share trading at 61.These are the opportunities for collection.

You will understand aim of negative negative comments writers if you read their comments for last 1 or 2 years.

We have seen lots of people come and leave CSE.But we real investors are with CSE whether it is up or down.We love correction too.


Let's dog bark.We love you CSE.

I am totally agreed with you Yahapalanaya. Thank you for mentioning real thing happens around us.

34 Re: Taking leave from the MARKET on Sun Nov 20, 2016 8:49 pm

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
I totally agree with EquityChamp
and

I do not believe politically bias statements

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