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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Is the CSE overvalued???

Is the CSE overvalued???

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1 Is the CSE overvalued??? on Tue Oct 06, 2015 5:00 pm

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
Guys,
Would like to initiate a discussion on this topic. Below are some historical facts.

2012 ASPI was 5643 and PE was 15.9
2013 ASPI was 5913 and PE was 15.9
2014 ASPI was 7299 and PE was 19.7
Today ASPI is 7086 and PE is 18.4

2013 ASPI gained by 4.8% while 2014 it gained by 23% but YTD it has dropped by 3%.

Does that mean 2014 market grew by unsustainable level? If that isn't the case why market PE ratio has hugely increased? If we assume 2012 & 2013 PE were fair and to sustain in 2015 and 2016 what would be the year end ASPI target?

Assuming an annual market EPS growth of 5% I worked out 2015 ASPI target of 6560 and 2016 ASPI target of 6880.

Another question is that whether the market will come close to this 2015 estimate if JKH falls say 150 level together with the decline is share prices of big companies with further foreign selling.

Then we need to talk how likely this can happen within the next couple of months.

Feel good if we can discuss on this.

2 Re: Is the CSE overvalued??? on Tue Oct 06, 2015 5:06 pm

Wolf Of CSE


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@EquityChamp wrote:Guys,
Would like to initiate a discussion on this topic. Below are some historical facts.

2012 ASPI was 5643 and PE was 15.9
2013 ASPI was 5913 and PE was 15.9
2014 ASPI was 7299 and PE was 19.7
Today ASPI is 7086 and PE is 18.4

2013 ASPI gained by 4.8% while 2014 it gained by 23% but YTD it has dropped by 3%.

Does that mean 2014 market grew by unsustainable level? If that isn't the case why market PE ratio has hugely increased? If we assume 2012 & 2013 PE were fair and to sustain in 2015 and 2016 what would be the year end ASPI target?

Assuming an annual market EPS growth of 5% I worked out 2015 ASPI target of 6560 and 2016 ASPI target of 6880.

Another question is that whether the market will come close to this 2015 estimate if JKH falls say 150 level together with the decline is share prices of big companies with further foreign selling.

Then we need to talk how likely this can happen within the next couple of months.

Feel good if we can discuss on this.
You cannot isolate the ASPI and analyse the market.There are major players like JKH which has a huge impact on the ASPI.So its useless.

3 Re: Is the CSE overvalued??? on Tue Oct 06, 2015 5:11 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Wolf Of CSE wrote:
@EquityChamp wrote:Guys,
Would like to initiate a discussion on this topic. Below are some historical facts.

2012 ASPI was 5643 and PE was 15.9
2013 ASPI was 5913 and PE was 15.9
2014 ASPI was 7299 and PE was 19.7
Today ASPI is 7086 and PE is 18.4

2013 ASPI gained by 4.8% while 2014 it gained by 23% but YTD it has dropped by 3%.

Does that mean 2014 market grew by unsustainable level? If that isn't the case why market PE ratio has hugely increased? If we assume 2012 & 2013 PE were fair and to sustain in 2015 and 2016 what would be the year end ASPI target?

Assuming an annual market EPS growth of 5% I worked out 2015 ASPI target of 6560 and 2016 ASPI target of 6880.

Another question is that whether the market will come close to this 2015 estimate if JKH falls say 150 level together with the decline is share prices of big companies with further foreign selling.

Then we need to talk how likely this can happen within the next couple of months.

Feel good if we can discuss on this.
You cannot isolate the ASPI and analyse the market.There are major players like JKH which has a huge impact on the ASPI.So its useless.


these days i am working on ASI. I think it will fall.

specially next Budget is huge impact

personally i like ASI dropping to bellow 6000. at that point we can buy valuable stock at cheap price level.

4 Re: Is the CSE overvalued??? on Tue Oct 06, 2015 5:15 pm

Wolf Of CSE


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@stockback wrote:
@Wolf Of CSE wrote:
@EquityChamp wrote:Guys,
Would like to initiate a discussion on this topic. Below are some historical facts.

2012 ASPI was 5643 and PE was 15.9
2013 ASPI was 5913 and PE was 15.9
2014 ASPI was 7299 and PE was 19.7
Today ASPI is 7086 and PE is 18.4

2013 ASPI gained by 4.8% while 2014 it gained by 23% but YTD it has dropped by 3%.

Does that mean 2014 market grew by unsustainable level? If that isn't the case why market PE ratio has hugely increased? If we assume 2012 & 2013 PE were fair and to sustain in 2015 and 2016 what would be the year end ASPI target?

Assuming an annual market EPS growth of 5% I worked out 2015 ASPI target of 6560 and 2016 ASPI target of 6880.

Another question is that whether the market will come close to this 2015 estimate if JKH falls say 150 level together with the decline is share prices of big companies with further foreign selling.

Then we need to talk how likely this can happen within the next couple of months.

Feel good if we can discuss on this.
You cannot isolate the ASPI and analyse the market.There are major players like JKH which has a huge impact on the ASPI.So its useless.


these days i am working on ASI. I think it will fall.

specially next Budget is huge impact

personally i like ASI dropping to bellow 6000. at that point we can buy valuable stock at cheap price level.
Its true.But the fact is that there are alot of undervalued shares in the market waiting to up their respective prices but because of shares like JKH ,investors are reluctant to invest in the market.So i think its better if we could see an uptrend

5 Re: Is the CSE overvalued??? on Tue Oct 06, 2015 5:18 pm

karuna


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Jkh matanam wadanawak it's very ugly to me
Mayawa pirela

6 Re: Is the CSE overvalued??? on Tue Oct 06, 2015 5:28 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@karuna wrote:Jkh matanam wadanawak it's very ugly to me
Mayawa pirela


JKH manipulate karahan anna pora. with your friends (if you have)

7 Re: Is the CSE overvalued??? on Tue Oct 06, 2015 5:30 pm

Yahapalanaya

avatar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@stockback wrote:
@karuna wrote:Jkh matanam wadanawak it's very ugly to me
Mayawa pirela


JKH manipulate karahan anna pora. with your friends (if you have)
JKH manipulation is too much for Karuna and Co.

Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

8 Re: Is the CSE overvalued??? on Tue Oct 06, 2015 6:06 pm

anges


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
looks over valued since foreigners are pulling cash out ! but if economy grows and cash flow is good numbers look good !

9 Re: Is the CSE overvalued??? on Tue Oct 06, 2015 6:27 pm

SLBOY


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
So what should we do. 
Do we have to Realized whatever profit and loss and keep away ??????.

10 Re: Is the CSE overvalued??? on Tue Oct 06, 2015 7:13 pm

shadow walker

avatar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
dont worry EC.. Very Happy Very Happy
 
its not overvalued... these days ASI  absorbing the JKH downfall and foreign out flow...

11 Re: Is the CSE overvalued??? on Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:19 am

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
If JKH to drop by another 7.5% ( with more selling on the line) and possible drop in CTC ( due to increase in taxes and lower sales volume) can't ASPI come down by another 5%. I think we can't assign zero bribability for that.

12 Re: Is the CSE overvalued??? on Thu Nov 17, 2016 4:16 pm

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
The facts we discussed in this thread seems to be correct, isn't it?

13 Re: Is the CSE overvalued??? on Thu Nov 17, 2016 4:43 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@stockback wrote:
@Wolf Of CSE wrote:
@EquityChamp wrote:Guys,
Would like to initiate a discussion on this topic. Below are some historical facts.

2012 ASPI was 5643 and PE was 15.9
2013 ASPI was 5913 and PE was 15.9
2014 ASPI was 7299 and PE was 19.7
Today ASPI is 7086 and PE is 18.4

2013 ASPI gained by 4.8% while 2014 it gained by 23% but YTD it has dropped by 3%.

Does that mean 2014 market grew by unsustainable level? If that isn't the case why market PE ratio has hugely increased? If we assume 2012 & 2013 PE were fair and to sustain in 2015 and 2016 what would be the year end ASPI target?

Assuming an annual market EPS growth of 5% I worked out 2015 ASPI target of 6560 and 2016 ASPI target of 6880.

Another question is that whether the market will come close to this 2015 estimate if JKH falls say 150 level together with the decline is share prices of big companies with further foreign selling.

Then we need to talk how likely this can happen within the next couple of months.

Feel good if we can discuss on this.
You cannot isolate the ASPI and analyse the market.There are major players like JKH which has a huge impact on the ASPI.So its useless.


these days i am working on ASI. I think it will fall.

specially next Budget is huge impact

personally i like ASI dropping to bellow 6000. at that point we can buy valuable stock at cheap price level.


still I believed my lines....

14 Re: Is the CSE overvalued??? on Thu Nov 17, 2016 6:21 pm

Teller

avatar
Moderator
CSE is under value compare to world markets

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