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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

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EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
Q2 PAT up by 129% with 24% revenue growth and GP margin increase of 3pp meaning material costs have come down. Six month EPS 13.22 and NAV is 123.

2015/160 EPS (E) would be 28 and current PE is 13.5. PBV is 3.1. In medium term this share can reach Rs440. Solid investment for value investors.
Thanks Basketball

gayanath1983

avatar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
yes this is also like NEST, CINS

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
Since the market bull run is yet to start and await for the next run to 8500 this is that kind of a stock that can move even to 1000 within 1-2 years with the market momentum. So it is a wise decision if any one can buy and keep about 1000 shares as a real investment.

fulltilt


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Yes very true this share has real value. Especially after the water front project is complete. Also they have a reasonable PE multiple. Only problem is the share is too illiquid to attract long term funds to invest to hold its value. Retailers by and large can't hold for too long unless they keep it as a saving.

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
Anyone dispute my analysis. Just a quick comparison of YoY financial KPIs.
 14/1515/16
Revenue (Rs mn)         27,699          34,069
NP (Rs mn)           1,525            2,875
NP margin6%8%
EPS (Rs)16.0530.25
DPS (Rs)1118
Price (Rs)298430
PE             18.6              14.2
DY3.7%4.2%
I estimated an EPS of 28 and they produced more than 30.4.2% DY is better than many other companies. PE of 14x will not be expensive for a long term investor. Further their BS is now debt free. I would proudly say that this is a company enter into that elusive club which is currently representing by CTC, NEST & LLUB. Anyone who dispute that this stock won't reach 800 level next year please tell me why you think so.
Moreover I would say that this share awaits a sub division. It went through subdivision previously when the price was 800 and I am saying today it will do the same again once it reaches 800 for the second time.

cseguide

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@EquityChamp wrote:Anyone dispute my analysis. Just a quick comparison of YoY financial KPIs.
 14/1515/16
Revenue (Rs mn)         27,699          34,069
NP (Rs mn)           1,525            2,875
NP margin6%8%
EPS (Rs)16.0530.25
DPS (Rs)1118
Price (Rs)298430
PE             18.6              14.2
DY3.7%4.2%
I estimated an EPS of 28 and they produced more than 30.4.2% DY is better than many other companies. PE of 14x will not be expensive for a long term investor. Further their BS is now debt free. I would proudly say that this is a company enter into that elusive club which is currently representing by CTC, NEST & LLUB. Anyone who dispute that this stock won't reach 800 level next year please tell me why you think so.
Moreover I would say that this share awaits a sub division. It went through subdivision previously when the price was 800 and I am saying today it will do the same again once it reaches 800 for the second time.
no argument, agree with you.

Brinthan

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Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Ec Sir everyone going to subdivision Exempt Nestle...Is there any special reason for Nestle...

EquityChamp

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Moderator
Brother NEST & CTC are foreign companies with major focus on dividend.

Brinthan

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Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanx..Ec Sir and one more clarification...Why companies subdivid their shares...?What are the benifits they have..?

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
@Brinthan wrote:Thanx..Ec Sir and one more clarification...Why companies subdivid their shares...?What are the benifits they have..?

Main objective is to increase the liquidity. In Sri Lanka it has proven that share splits can increase the market value of a stock too so as the second objective a sub division will targeting on increasing share price as well in Sri Lanka.

VALUEPICK

avatar
Expert
Expert
Its all time low was Rs.17.75. If we can identify some stocks in advance, then we can ride both bull and bear market. We should not forget to include attractive food stocks in our egg basket (portfolio). Human create demand for basic things such as food almost every year irrespective of type of business cycle or economic cycle.

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
CCS 500/- resistance broken and now it is 534/-. So 600/- will be the next resistance and now we can see less than 500 sellers on board. Some people have really collected when the share was around 400. What a gem like stock.

EquityChamp

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Moderator
Today so far 26000 shares traded for 530/-. Some party has collected and definitely with long term idea.

EquityChamp

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Moderator
Oh my God 600/- touched today. Last October this was 400 and now 600/- so by coming October 1000? Basketball See the thumping return.

Teller

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Moderator
I am having this from 55/- rupees. How amazing it is?

pollaeliye


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@ Teller, please recommend some shares for long term like CCL ......

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
Q1 2016/17 EPS Rs9 with YoY growth of 56%. Even with adverse whether the EPS impact QoQ was only 1 rupee. I guess this year they will deliver  an EPS of 40 with a dividend in excess of 20/- So 800 by year end with ASPI of 7000 will not be a dream for me.

nimantha80


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
sihinayaki mee nihada madiyam raaa

Teller

avatar
Moderator
@poll, Still HEXP is the BEST...when I was buying CCS I never had a plan to see this in 600 levels.
When I buy HEXP I had a guarantee see HEXP above 130 levels.

20 CCS on FIRE on Tue Aug 09, 2016 10:28 am

Ravindu Kumarasiri

avatar
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
CCS.N0000 is very active and can get profits even on daliy basis if you are lucky. For the week it is at least 10% gain.
Just have a look at the order list for some time. Can see how dynamic it is..

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
From 400 odd in October 2015 to 650+ in August 2016. Not bad for the value investors. Isn't it?

Ryan Hudson


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
CCS is a good share at any price, but manipulations always can happen, on value perspective APLA is much better, but CCS are putting up another factory and expanding Keels Super

chandimalkasun


Stock Trader
EC is it still  a good buy @ current price ?

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
If you are not asking for short term then Yes. You must prepare to hold some time if require a handsom gain.

chandimalkasun


Stock Trader
u mean like 1 year

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
Now lets look at the facts. In October it was trading arround 400 and now after ten months it is 650. Meaning 60% appreciation. So lets see you buy and keep for two quarters. Then two quarterly results also released. urther now the share has become very very illiquide. And with the growth in earnings the stock can reach arround 800-850 which means a 25% return.
I think what I tell now is clear.

chandimalkasun


Stock Trader
thanks EC. its crystal clear

kassachandi


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
EC what is your exit price for this value gem

kassachandimal


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I just saw a huge parcel of 25000 CCS changed hands. Someone is buying @even this price means this has more legs to run towards 800- 1000 levels

kassachandimal


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
With market turning into bullish gains we can see CCS giving thumping returns to holders of this value gem. Next barrier is 700. It might pass that in this week.

kassachandimal


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
My target for CCS 700-720 before next quarter report

Brinthan

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Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Big sell orders placed from someone @ the price of  Rs 650 to 675 mark thats why ccs going down ....

gayanath1983

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Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
යස අගේට ගිය ෂෙයාර් එක ෆෝරම් එකේ කතා උනා විතරය් බහින්න ගත්තා...

kassachandi


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
I think someone is trying to collect this value gem at low. Dividend is also due in October.CCS will run again very soon pass 700

TARGET


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
If you want to enter, wait for come back further. .Don't stuck top of the waterfall. . Very Happy

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
@gayanath1983 wrote:යස අගේට ගිය ෂෙයාර් එක ෆෝරම් එකේ  කතා උනා විතරය් බහින්න  ගත්තා...

Or else it can be that someone bought it and manipulate using the forum platform and sell-off the holdings. I think you can think such a dial in this forum Very Happy  Very Happy  Very Happy

TARGET


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@EquityChamp wrote:
@gayanath1983 wrote:යස අගේට ගිය ෂෙයාර් එක ෆෝරම් එකේ  කතා උනා විතරය් බහින්න  ගත්තා...

Or else it can be that someone bought it and manipulate using the forum platform and sell-off the holdings. I think you can think such a dial in this forum Very Happy  Very Happy  Very Happy
Now that dial won't talk about this share.
Ane paw shares select karanna deiyo passe yana aya Very Happy

kassachandi


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Then what about your prediction for CSS that u done earlier

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
CCS should move along with its earnings. Compare its valuation parameters and decide the future state. This has the potential to reach great levels but at the correct time not because some one come here and says its 5000 and by one week or one month its 1000. Its not the case. If you do the investment give the investment the required time to grow. On 19th August CCS was trading @ 14% premium to the industry. So anyone should know what does that means. Over buying or artificial manipulation in the short term could be the reason. But when you factor in two to three quarter results you could figure out the future price. And that is the destination I am talking about. Hope my message is clear.

kassachandi


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Thanks EC for ur reply. I also see CCS has still great potential

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