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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

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EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
First topic message reminder :

Q2 PAT up by 129% with 24% revenue growth and GP margin increase of 3pp meaning material costs have come down. Six month EPS 13.22 and NAV is 123.

2015/160 EPS (E) would be 28 and current PE is 13.5. PBV is 3.1. In medium term this share can reach Rs440. Solid investment for value investors.
Thanks Basketball


EquityChamp


Moderator
From 400 odd in October 2015 to 650+ in August 2016. Not bad for the value investors. Isn't it?

Ryan Hudson


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
CCS is a good share at any price, but manipulations always can happen, on value perspective APLA is much better, but CCS are putting up another factory and expanding Keels Super

chandimalkasun


Stock Trader
EC is it still  a good buy @ current price ?

EquityChamp


Moderator
If you are not asking for short term then Yes. You must prepare to hold some time if require a handsom gain.

chandimalkasun


Stock Trader
u mean like 1 year

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
Now lets look at the facts. In October it was trading arround 400 and now after ten months it is 650. Meaning 60% appreciation. So lets see you buy and keep for two quarters. Then two quarterly results also released. urther now the share has become very very illiquide. And with the growth in earnings the stock can reach arround 800-850 which means a 25% return.
I think what I tell now is clear.

chandimalkasun


Stock Trader
thanks EC. its crystal clear

kassachandi


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
EC what is your exit price for this value gem

kassachandimal


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I just saw a huge parcel of 25000 CCS changed hands. Someone is buying @even this price means this has more legs to run towards 800- 1000 levels

kassachandimal


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
With market turning into bullish gains we can see CCS giving thumping returns to holders of this value gem. Next barrier is 700. It might pass that in this week.

kassachandimal


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
My target for CCS 700-720 before next quarter report

Brinthan

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Big sell orders placed from someone @ the price of  Rs 650 to 675 mark thats why ccs going down ....

gayanath1983

avatar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
යස අගේට ගිය ෂෙයාර් එක ෆෝරම් එකේ කතා උනා විතරය් බහින්න ගත්තා...

kassachandi


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
I think someone is trying to collect this value gem at low. Dividend is also due in October.CCS will run again very soon pass 700

TARGET


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
If you want to enter, wait for come back further. .Don't stuck top of the waterfall. . Very Happy

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
@gayanath1983 wrote:යස අගේට ගිය ෂෙයාර් එක ෆෝරම් එකේ  කතා උනා විතරය් බහින්න  ගත්තා...

Or else it can be that someone bought it and manipulate using the forum platform and sell-off the holdings. I think you can think such a dial in this forum Very Happy  Very Happy  Very Happy

TARGET


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@EquityChamp wrote:
@gayanath1983 wrote:යස අගේට ගිය ෂෙයාර් එක ෆෝරම් එකේ  කතා උනා විතරය් බහින්න  ගත්තා...

Or else it can be that someone bought it and manipulate using the forum platform and sell-off the holdings. I think you can think such a dial in this forum Very Happy  Very Happy  Very Happy
Now that dial won't talk about this share.
Ane paw shares select karanna deiyo passe yana aya Very Happy

kassachandi


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Then what about your prediction for CSS that u done earlier

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
CCS should move along with its earnings. Compare its valuation parameters and decide the future state. This has the potential to reach great levels but at the correct time not because some one come here and says its 5000 and by one week or one month its 1000. Its not the case. If you do the investment give the investment the required time to grow. On 19th August CCS was trading @ 14% premium to the industry. So anyone should know what does that means. Over buying or artificial manipulation in the short term could be the reason. But when you factor in two to three quarter results you could figure out the future price. And that is the destination I am talking about. Hope my message is clear.

kassachandi


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Thanks EC for ur reply. I also see CCS has still great potential

Gaudente


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@EquityChamp wrote:2015/160 EPS (E) would be 28 and current PE is 13.5. PBV is 3.1. In medium term this share can reach Rs440. Solid investment for value investors.
Thanks Basketball
How can a P/VB of 3.1 be a "solid investment for value investors" ?  Question Mad

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
@Gaudente wrote:
@EquityChamp wrote:2015/160 EPS (E) would be 28 and current PE is 13.5. PBV is 3.1. In medium term this share can reach Rs440. Solid investment for value investors.
Thanks Basketball
How can a P/VB of 3.1 be a "solid investment for value investors" ?  Question Mad

Very simple answer to your question. CCS will deliver value to investors the same way CTC, NEST and LLUB delivered value. Watch the values of CCS in another one year time.  Basketball

kassachandimal


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Yes EC. This will also give at least rs 30 dividend this year

kassachandimal


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
A huge chunk has just change hands @650. Good time ahead. Might be a foreign buy.  cheers

fireshelter

avatar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Very Happy Very Happy Shocked Shocked Shocked

kassachandimal


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
A major foreign party has entered in to this value gem. Stats shows a major buy of more than 300000 CCS has been purchased today. It has to be gone straight to top ten holders or a top ten shareholder has up its stake. Buyer has to be surely not gambling at a price of 650. CCS will show great uptrend in near future.

nimantha80


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
if its  EPF then wrong decision to sell.

kassachandimal


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
EPF never sells this GEM with loads of dividents right now

nimantha80


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@kassachandimal wrote:EPF never sells this GEM with loads of dividents right now
then it should be C.D.Kohombanwickramage

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
I thought of giving some extra piece to think as well as to value this stock. You can refer below table which is based on current numbers and trends but not included Waterfront financials.
 2014201520162017201820192020
Revenue (Mn)        26,330        30,969        37,633         43,456        50,180         57,945         66,911
Operating Profit (Mn)          1,541          2,160          3,896           4,780          6,022           7,533           9,368
PAT          1,218          1,525          2,875           3,585          4,516           5,650           7,026
EPS            12.8            16.1            30.3             37.7            47.5             59.5             74.0
PE 11x  16x  14x  17x    
DPS41118               21               26                33                41
You can see how the revenue trajectory till 2020 and how the profitability can moves. Also the PE can be observed in an increasing trend which means investors are rapidly chasing after this stock. Its currently trading @ 650/- and based on 2016/17 earnings forecasts it is trading at a forward PE of 17x.Based on 2020 earnings it is trading at a forward PE of 9x which is a hefty discount.

If you value this stock at a PE of 17x which is equal to current PE as well as current industry PE by 2020 this stock could value over Rs1200/- which means a growth potential of 100% from current levels within a period of 4 years. You can discount the price and see how much it would value today.
If you discount it at a cost of capital of 10% the current value should be 859. Of course you should include the next 4 years dividends as well which I had excluded.
So now you can see why the foreigners are so greedy on this stock. Now I have shown you the value propositions so that you can make informed decisions.
Thanks

fireshelter

avatar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

kassachandimal


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
YES EC CCS is a great value gem that foreigners are still chasing. 700 possible in near future

fireshelter

avatar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

kassachandimal


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
CCS Dividend due this week !!!!

fireshelter

avatar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Very Happy Very Happy

kassachandi


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
EC what about CCS super results. I don't think even you anticipated such a great result. I'm sure you will post a new target value chart of this value gem.

nimantha80


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
pawilla nathiwenna math kawa ice cream hitu gala.beemath biuwa.

kassachandimal


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
good quote nimantha. EC eagerly expecting your comments

nimantha80


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@kassachandimal wrote:good quote nimantha. EC eagerly expecting your comments
Q4,Q1 they benefit because of festival season and new year.There marketing is so creative in festival season.Last time it was"athurupasa charithre" as I remember.Guess what Q2,Q3 it is drought and you don't need marketing at all.I identified  this as a gem  at 150.

kassachandi


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
EC badly need your idea

kassachandimal


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
CCS slowly buy  orders coming in

kassachandi


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Huge foreign buying again in this value GEM. CCS has lots of foreign attraction. Very soon it will upgrade to the next price level of above 700

kassachandimal


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
CCS warming up  Basketball

Agape


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Agreed-Next Level Rs 700-725-Am getting news that Foreigners are chasing this share

kalu_mahaththaya


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
I THINK, NO ONE CORRECTLY ANALYSED THIS SHARE YET. IF YOU CHECK THE PRICE LINE SINCE 2012, THE PRICE OF CCS HAS BEEN INCREASING CONSISTANTLY NOT CARINF THE MARKET CRASHES OR ANY OTHER HINDERENCES...THAT IS BECAUSE CCS IS EXPANDING THEIR MARKET EVERY YEAR MAKING CONSIDERABLE PROFITS AND ASSET GROWTH IN THEIR BALANCE SHEET...

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