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Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

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Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by EquityChamp on Wed Oct 21, 2015 5:24 pm

First topic message reminder :

Q2 PAT up by 129% with 24% revenue growth and GP margin increase of 3pp meaning material costs have come down. Six month EPS 13.22 and NAV is 123.

2015/160 EPS (E) would be 28 and current PE is 13.5. PBV is 3.1. In medium term this share can reach Rs440. Solid investment for value investors.
Thanks Basketball
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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by EquityChamp on Tue Aug 09, 2016 11:43 am

From 400 odd in October 2015 to 650+ in August 2016. Not bad for the value investors. Isn't it?

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by Ryan Hudson on Tue Aug 09, 2016 12:09 pm

CCS is a good share at any price, but manipulations always can happen, on value perspective APLA is much better, but CCS are putting up another factory and expanding Keels Super

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by chandimalkasun on Tue Aug 09, 2016 1:27 pm

EC is it still  a good buy @ current price ?

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by EquityChamp on Tue Aug 09, 2016 1:34 pm

If you are not asking for short term then Yes. You must prepare to hold some time if require a handsom gain.

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by chandimalkasun on Tue Aug 09, 2016 1:37 pm

u mean like 1 year

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by EquityChamp on Tue Aug 09, 2016 1:44 pm

Now lets look at the facts. In October it was trading arround 400 and now after ten months it is 650. Meaning 60% appreciation. So lets see you buy and keep for two quarters. Then two quarterly results also released. urther now the share has become very very illiquide. And with the growth in earnings the stock can reach arround 800-850 which means a 25% return.
I think what I tell now is clear.
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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by chandimalkasun on Tue Aug 09, 2016 1:55 pm

thanks EC. its crystal clear

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by kassachandi on Tue Aug 09, 2016 2:47 pm

EC what is your exit price for this value gem

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by kassachandimal on Thu Aug 11, 2016 1:06 pm

I just saw a huge parcel of 25000 CCS changed hands. Someone is buying @even this price means this has more legs to run towards 800- 1000 levels

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by kassachandimal on Mon Aug 15, 2016 2:49 pm

With market turning into bullish gains we can see CCS giving thumping returns to holders of this value gem. Next barrier is 700. It might pass that in this week.

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by kassachandimal on Tue Aug 23, 2016 6:20 pm

My target for CCS 700-720 before next quarter report

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by Brinthan on Thu Aug 25, 2016 7:52 pm

Big sell orders placed from someone @ the price of  Rs 650 to 675 mark thats why ccs going down ....
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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by gayanath1983 on Thu Aug 25, 2016 8:07 pm

යස අගේට ගිය ෂෙයාර් එක ෆෝරම් එකේ කතා උනා විතරය් බහින්න ගත්තා...
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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by kassachandi on Fri Aug 26, 2016 6:13 am

I think someone is trying to collect this value gem at low. Dividend is also due in October.CCS will run again very soon pass 700

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by TARGET on Fri Aug 26, 2016 6:34 am

If you want to enter, wait for come back further. .Don't stuck top of the waterfall. . Very Happy

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by EquityChamp on Fri Aug 26, 2016 7:00 am

@gayanath1983 wrote:යස අගේට ගිය ෂෙයාර් එක ෆෝරම් එකේ  කතා උනා විතරය් බහින්න  ගත්තා...

Or else it can be that someone bought it and manipulate using the forum platform and sell-off the holdings. I think you can think such a dial in this forum Very Happy  Very Happy  Very Happy
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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by TARGET on Fri Aug 26, 2016 7:13 am

@EquityChamp wrote:
@gayanath1983 wrote:යස අගේට ගිය ෂෙයාර් එක ෆෝරම් එකේ  කතා උනා විතරය් බහින්න  ගත්තා...

Or else it can be that someone bought it and manipulate using the forum platform and sell-off the holdings. I think you can think such a dial in this forum Very Happy  Very Happy  Very Happy
Now that dial won't talk about this share.
Ane paw shares select karanna deiyo passe yana aya Very Happy

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by kassachandi on Fri Aug 26, 2016 7:43 am

Then what about your prediction for CSS that u done earlier

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by EquityChamp on Fri Aug 26, 2016 7:59 am

CCS should move along with its earnings. Compare its valuation parameters and decide the future state. This has the potential to reach great levels but at the correct time not because some one come here and says its 5000 and by one week or one month its 1000. Its not the case. If you do the investment give the investment the required time to grow. On 19th August CCS was trading @ 14% premium to the industry. So anyone should know what does that means. Over buying or artificial manipulation in the short term could be the reason. But when you factor in two to three quarter results you could figure out the future price. And that is the destination I am talking about. Hope my message is clear.
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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by kassachandi on Fri Aug 26, 2016 8:08 am

Thanks EC for ur reply. I also see CCS has still great potential

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by Gaudente on Mon Aug 29, 2016 1:56 pm

@EquityChamp wrote:2015/160 EPS (E) would be 28 and current PE is 13.5. PBV is 3.1. In medium term this share can reach Rs440. Solid investment for value investors.
Thanks Basketball
How can a P/VB of 3.1 be a "solid investment for value investors" ?  Question Mad

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by EquityChamp on Mon Aug 29, 2016 9:56 pm

@Gaudente wrote:
@EquityChamp wrote:2015/160 EPS (E) would be 28 and current PE is 13.5. PBV is 3.1. In medium term this share can reach Rs440. Solid investment for value investors.
Thanks Basketball
How can a P/VB of 3.1 be a "solid investment for value investors" ?  Question Mad

Very simple answer to your question. CCS will deliver value to investors the same way CTC, NEST and LLUB delivered value. Watch the values of CCS in another one year time.  Basketball
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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by kassachandimal on Tue Aug 30, 2016 5:39 pm

Yes EC. This will also give at least rs 30 dividend this year

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by kassachandimal on Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:36 pm

A huge chunk has just change hands @650. Good time ahead. Might be a foreign buy.  cheers

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by fireshelter on Wed Aug 31, 2016 12:55 pm

Very Happy Very Happy Shocked Shocked Shocked
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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by kassachandimal on Wed Aug 31, 2016 4:44 pm

A major foreign party has entered in to this value gem. Stats shows a major buy of more than 300000 CCS has been purchased today. It has to be gone straight to top ten holders or a top ten shareholder has up its stake. Buyer has to be surely not gambling at a price of 650. CCS will show great uptrend in near future.

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by nimantha80 on Wed Aug 31, 2016 5:54 pm

if its  EPF then wrong decision to sell.

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by kassachandimal on Wed Aug 31, 2016 6:18 pm

EPF never sells this GEM with loads of dividents right now

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by nimantha80 on Wed Aug 31, 2016 6:26 pm

@kassachandimal wrote:EPF never sells this GEM with loads of dividents right now
then it should be C.D.Kohombanwickramage

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by EquityChamp on Wed Aug 31, 2016 11:12 pm

I thought of giving some extra piece to think as well as to value this stock. You can refer below table which is based on current numbers and trends but not included Waterfront financials.
 2014201520162017201820192020
Revenue (Mn)        26,330        30,969        37,633         43,456        50,180         57,945         66,911
Operating Profit (Mn)          1,541          2,160          3,896           4,780          6,022           7,533           9,368
PAT          1,218          1,525          2,875           3,585          4,516           5,650           7,026
EPS            12.8            16.1            30.3             37.7            47.5             59.5             74.0
PE 11x  16x  14x  17x    
DPS41118               21               26                33                41
You can see how the revenue trajectory till 2020 and how the profitability can moves. Also the PE can be observed in an increasing trend which means investors are rapidly chasing after this stock. Its currently trading @ 650/- and based on 2016/17 earnings forecasts it is trading at a forward PE of 17x.Based on 2020 earnings it is trading at a forward PE of 9x which is a hefty discount.

If you value this stock at a PE of 17x which is equal to current PE as well as current industry PE by 2020 this stock could value over Rs1200/- which means a growth potential of 100% from current levels within a period of 4 years. You can discount the price and see how much it would value today.
If you discount it at a cost of capital of 10% the current value should be 859. Of course you should include the next 4 years dividends as well which I had excluded.
So now you can see why the foreigners are so greedy on this stock. Now I have shown you the value propositions so that you can make informed decisions.
Thanks
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