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Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

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Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by EquityChamp on Wed Oct 21, 2015 5:24 pm

First topic message reminder :

Q2 PAT up by 129% with 24% revenue growth and GP margin increase of 3pp meaning material costs have come down. Six month EPS 13.22 and NAV is 123.

2015/160 EPS (E) would be 28 and current PE is 13.5. PBV is 3.1. In medium term this share can reach Rs440. Solid investment for value investors.
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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by kassachandimal on Wed Aug 31, 2016 4:44 pm

A major foreign party has entered in to this value gem. Stats shows a major buy of more than 300000 CCS has been purchased today. It has to be gone straight to top ten holders or a top ten shareholder has up its stake. Buyer has to be surely not gambling at a price of 650. CCS will show great uptrend in near future.

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by nimantha80 on Wed Aug 31, 2016 5:54 pm

if its  EPF then wrong decision to sell.

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by kassachandimal on Wed Aug 31, 2016 6:18 pm

EPF never sells this GEM with loads of dividents right now

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by nimantha80 on Wed Aug 31, 2016 6:26 pm

@kassachandimal wrote:EPF never sells this GEM with loads of dividents right now
then it should be C.D.Kohombanwickramage

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by EquityChamp on Wed Aug 31, 2016 11:12 pm

I thought of giving some extra piece to think as well as to value this stock. You can refer below table which is based on current numbers and trends but not included Waterfront financials.
 2014201520162017201820192020
Revenue (Mn)        26,330        30,969        37,633         43,456        50,180         57,945         66,911
Operating Profit (Mn)          1,541          2,160          3,896           4,780          6,022           7,533           9,368
PAT          1,218          1,525          2,875           3,585          4,516           5,650           7,026
EPS            12.8            16.1            30.3             37.7            47.5             59.5             74.0
PE 11x  16x  14x  17x    
DPS41118               21               26                33                41
You can see how the revenue trajectory till 2020 and how the profitability can moves. Also the PE can be observed in an increasing trend which means investors are rapidly chasing after this stock. Its currently trading @ 650/- and based on 2016/17 earnings forecasts it is trading at a forward PE of 17x.Based on 2020 earnings it is trading at a forward PE of 9x which is a hefty discount.

If you value this stock at a PE of 17x which is equal to current PE as well as current industry PE by 2020 this stock could value over Rs1200/- which means a growth potential of 100% from current levels within a period of 4 years. You can discount the price and see how much it would value today.
If you discount it at a cost of capital of 10% the current value should be 859. Of course you should include the next 4 years dividends as well which I had excluded.
So now you can see why the foreigners are so greedy on this stock. Now I have shown you the value propositions so that you can make informed decisions.
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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by fireshelter on Wed Aug 31, 2016 11:18 pm

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by kassachandimal on Thu Sep 01, 2016 6:37 am

YES EC CCS is a great value gem that foreigners are still chasing. 700 possible in near future

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by fireshelter on Fri Sep 02, 2016 3:50 am

Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by kassachandimal on Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:11 am

CCS Dividend due this week !!!!

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by fireshelter on Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:19 pm

Very Happy Very Happy
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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by kassachandi on Tue Oct 25, 2016 7:56 pm

EC what about CCS super results. I don't think even you anticipated such a great result. I'm sure you will post a new target value chart of this value gem.

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by nimantha80 on Tue Oct 25, 2016 8:11 pm

pawilla nathiwenna math kawa ice cream hitu gala.beemath biuwa.

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by kassachandimal on Wed Oct 26, 2016 6:13 am

good quote nimantha. EC eagerly expecting your comments

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by nimantha80 on Wed Oct 26, 2016 8:30 am

@kassachandimal wrote:good quote nimantha. EC eagerly expecting your comments
Q4,Q1 they benefit because of festival season and new year.There marketing is so creative in festival season.Last time it was"athurupasa charithre" as I remember.Guess what Q2,Q3 it is drought and you don't need marketing at all.I identified  this as a gem  at 150.

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by kassachandi on Thu Oct 27, 2016 2:55 am

EC badly need your idea

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by kassachandimal on Thu Oct 27, 2016 1:07 pm

CCS slowly buy  orders coming in

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by kassachandi on Sun Oct 30, 2016 12:22 pm

Huge foreign buying again in this value GEM. CCS has lots of foreign attraction. Very soon it will upgrade to the next price level of above 700

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by kassachandimal on Fri Nov 04, 2016 12:56 pm

CCS warming up  Basketball

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by Agape on Fri Nov 04, 2016 4:07 pm

Agreed-Next Level Rs 700-725-Am getting news that Foreigners are chasing this share

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by kalu_mahaththaya on Fri Nov 04, 2016 5:32 pm

I THINK, NO ONE CORRECTLY ANALYSED THIS SHARE YET. IF YOU CHECK THE PRICE LINE SINCE 2012, THE PRICE OF CCS HAS BEEN INCREASING CONSISTANTLY NOT CARINF THE MARKET CRASHES OR ANY OTHER HINDERENCES...THAT IS BECAUSE CCS IS EXPANDING THEIR MARKET EVERY YEAR MAKING CONSIDERABLE PROFITS AND ASSET GROWTH IN THEIR BALANCE SHEET...

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by EquityChamp on Sat Nov 05, 2016 9:55 pm

I have upgraded the CCS earnings forecast based on the 1H financial results. It is currently trading at a forward PE of 15.3x based on 16/17 earnings and at a forward PE of 13.1x based on 17/18 earnings @ CMP of 664/-. It is still trading at a slightly discounted price compared to sector PEs. A great potential to appreciate further in mid term.
 2014201520162017201820192020
Revenue (Mn)        26,330        30,969        37,633         46,368        53,542         61,827         71,394
Operating Profit (Mn)          1,541          2,160          3,896           5,564          6,425           8,038           9,995
PAT          1,218          1,525          2,875           4,117          4,819           6,028           7,496
EPS            12.8            16.1            30.3             43.3            50.7             63.5             78.9
PE 11x  16x  14x  15x    
DPS41118               24               28                35                43
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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by kassachandimal on Sun Nov 06, 2016 7:52 am

Great work EC. CCS will move to 700 levels in no time

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by TARGET on Sun Nov 06, 2016 9:17 am

@kassachandimal wrote:Great work EC. CCS will move to 700 levels in no time
No time? Very Happy

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Elephant House gets bullish; Kicks off Rs. 5.7 b expansion

Post by kassachandimal on Mon Nov 07, 2016 7:27 am

Popular consumer foods brand Elephant House is getting bullish about future prospects judging by its decision to roll out a significant Rs. 5.7 billion expansion and modernisation plan.

John Keells Holdings, the parent of Ceylon Cold Stores (CCS), on Friday revealed that a new ice cream plant, with an investment of Rs. 3.2 billion, and a modern bottling line at a cost of Rs. 2.5 billion are due to commence shortly. The move is to cater to the envisaged demand and address existing capacity constraints.

For CCS the investment is the biggest in recent years and for JKH it is equally significant in the diversified blue chip’s manufacturing business.

The expansion move comes on the back of the improved performance of JKH’s consumer foods and retail business. In the first quarter this business segment generated a group profit before tax of Rs. 1.6 billion, up by 55% from a year earlier. CCD’s first half revenue rose by 31% to Rs. 21 billion and gross profit by 39% to Rs. 3.78 billion. Pre-tax profit grew by 56% to Rs. 2.68 billion and after tax by 52% to Rs. 1.9 billion.

The Elephant House brand offers 18 flavours of soft drinks and 32 flavours of ice creams. The retail sector has over 50 Keells Supermarkets.  “Profitability of the Frozen Confectionery and Beverage businesses were driven by double-digit growth in volumes and improved margins,” said JKH Chairman Susantha Ratnayake, who disclosed that JKH Group profit before tax in 2Q grew by 14% to Rs. 5.17 billion and the first half figure by 16% to Rs. 8.75 billion.



The new plants for CCS are expected to be completed in two years. The Elephant House brand is celebrating 150 years of operation this year. The existing bottling plant was commissioned in 1998.

In the 2Q, the manufacturing business saw revenue of Rs. 3.78 billion, up from Rs. 3 billion a year earlier, while the segment’s result was Rs. 1.05 billion, up from Rs. 688 million. 

The retail business’ revenue was Rs. 7.15 billion, up from Rs. 5.2 billion while the segment’s result was Rs. 292.5 million, up from Rs. 210.8 million. For six months manufacturing turnover grew from Rs. 5.9 billion to Rs. 7.4 billion and that of retail from Rs. 10.3 billion to Rs. 14 billion. The pre-tax profit of manufacturing rose to Rs. 2.2 billion from Rs. 1.2 billion and that of retail rose from Rs. 430 million to Rs. 755 million.

The Retail sector continued its strong performance with steady growth in average basket values and customer footfall contributing positively towards a year-on-year growth in same store sales coupled with a notable incremental contribution from the newly opened outlets. Nine new outlets have been opened during the period under review and a further 11 outlets are due to be opened during the remainder of the financial year.

Last year the CCS Company contributed approximately 79% to the Group’s profits and accounted for 72% of its total assets. 

Both companies achieved their best performance to date in terms of revenue and profit, surpassing those set in 2014/2015. As a result, the Group experienced a significant growth of 88% in consolidated profit after tax to Rs. 2.87 billion.

In FY16, the beverage and ice-cream categories achieved volume growths of 26% and 21% respectively against the previous year. This volume growth saw the company’s top line grow by 25%, thus facilitating a 94% growth in profits due to the high operating leverage of the business. Retail saw top line growth of 22% in the Retail business on account of the same store sales growth of 13%. After tax profit grew by 156% to Rs. 905 million. 

The robust growth in sales and the bottomline at CCS comes despite the company earlier this year fearing a moderation of consumption.

Sri Lanka’s carbonated soft drinks market is estimated at 216 million litres with per capita consumption of approximately 10 litres. The CSD market grew by an estimated 20% during the year, supported by the consumption boom in 2015. The frozen confectionery market is estimated at 40 million litres per annum, while per capita ice cream consumption is around 2 litres, still below its regional counterparts. This market is expected to have grown by 18% in 2015. -




 See more at: http://www.ft.lk/article/578681/Elephant-House-gets-bullish--kicks-off-Rs--5-7-b-expansion#sthash.Lc1hdtLN.dpuf

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by kalu_mahaththaya on Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:12 am

CCS WILL GO BEYOND RS.1000/- WITHIN 2 MONTHS...

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by kassachandi on Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:47 am

Target did you see now what is "no time" means?

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by EquityChamp on Mon Nov 07, 2016 1:57 pm

As I have written already the current level of profitability will drive the share price t0 1,200+ by 2020. You can calculate the annual compounded growth rate for four years from current price levels. This is another AAA+ investment grade stock for me.
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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by kassachandimal on Mon Nov 07, 2016 6:57 pm

CCS have given an improved 1st interim dividend of 8rs. So by looking at this we can estimate an annual dividend of around   32-35 this year. What a GEM this is.  Basketball

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by kassachandimal on Tue Nov 08, 2016 1:48 pm

What a share this is. CCS never gave me losses. 725 and still going strong

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Re: Ceylon Cold Stores - A valuable illiquid stock

Post by EquityChamp on Tue Nov 08, 2016 1:54 pm

@EquityChamp wrote:As I have written already the current level of profitability will drive the share price t0 1,200+ by 2020. You can calculate the annual compounded growth rate for four years from current price levels. This is another AAA+ investment grade stock for me.
Its a 15% compounded growth rate for a 4 year investment plus a dividend yield of 3% to 5% annually. Better than any of the fixed income instrument in the market.
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