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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Market crash imminent

Market crash imminent

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1 Market crash imminent on Mon Jan 04, 2016 6:14 pm

Quibit

avatar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Stock market journey towards ASI 6000 commenced in the new year with a good note today signalling imminent crash of the CSE. It seems happening sooner than we all thought! Hope I could save my skirt from this tide!
Can Soro's save us!

2 Re: Market crash imminent on Mon Jan 04, 2016 6:59 pm

PRABASH84


Stock Trader
Due to following issues it may be a crash very soon



1. Exchange rate (rupee depreciation) Expected - USD @154


2. Lover GDP Rate - 4.8%

3. Interest rate expected to be increase - at least 200 points 

4. Continuous foreign net outflow.

3 Re: Market crash imminent on Mon Jan 04, 2016 7:28 pm

Quibit

avatar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Corporate earnings will get badly affected and future PE ratios will get higher without any effort. Higher the PER forget CSE.

4 Re: Market crash imminent on Mon Jan 04, 2016 7:38 pm

vic19

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Quibit wrote:Stock market journey towards ASI 6000 commenced in the new year with a good note today signalling imminent crash of the CSE. It seems happening sooner than we all thought! Hope I could save my skirt from this tide!
Can Soro's save us!

" DOOM monger Quibit " on the very 1st day of the year  of trading has started her usual random alibi..

just because your PMB is going lower and lower the market will not go down Miss....

it is still holidays for foreign investors to come and invest proper ( their Christmas turkey has not yet digested ).

 pls don't you spread rumors as you hold a very important position in this forum!!!.

thanks

5 Re: Market crash imminent on Mon Jan 04, 2016 7:39 pm

karuna


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
[size=35] Ha ha ha if you see the wonder [/size]
I believe In angles has to see when I know the time

6 Re: Market crash imminent on Mon Jan 04, 2016 7:59 pm

Yahapalanaya

avatar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Now only 1st working day of 2016 started in America.So let we see foreign inflow tomorrow.

7 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Jan 05, 2016 6:43 am

Quibit

avatar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@vic19 wrote:
@Quibit wrote:Stock market journey towards ASI 6000 commenced in the new year with a good note today signalling imminent crash of the CSE. It seems happening sooner than we all thought! Hope I could save my skirt from this tide!
Can Soro's save us!

" DOOM monger Quibit " on the very 1st day of the year  of trading has started her usual random alibi..

just because your PMB is going lower and lower the market will not go down Miss....

it is still holidays for foreign investors to come and invest proper ( their Christmas turkey has not yet digested ).

 pls don't you spread rumors as you hold a very important position in this forum!!!.

thanks

You are blaming me for telling you bad news on the 1st day. Central Bank also giving very positive news by taking over the management of ESL.

8 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Jan 05, 2016 8:18 am

jayathu


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
I dont think there would be a market crash but i can see a gradual decline due to weak economic policies.

I sold my portfolio 8 months back and started buying again 2 weeks ago. Good to be back in this forum. For trading purposes this is a bad time to invest. Investing for long term purpose is ideal. Good value counters has come down.

I have collected these following counters 
APLA
AAIC 
LOFC
SAMP 
PABC
RHL.X
AEL 

I don't expect any return within one yr, these shares i bought with a 3 yr plan.
I will collect more again if the market fall below 6500.

9 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Jan 05, 2016 11:32 am

vic19

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Quibit wrote:
@vic19 wrote:
@Quibit wrote:Stock market journey towards ASI 6000 commenced in the new year with a good note today signalling imminent crash of the CSE. It seems happening sooner than we all thought! Hope I could save my skirt from this tide!
Can Soro's save us!

" DOOM monger Quibit " on the very 1st day of the year  of trading has started her usual random alibi..

just because your PMB is going lower and lower the market will not go down Miss....

it is still holidays for foreign investors to come and invest proper ( their Christmas turkey has not yet digested ).

 pls don't you spread rumors as you hold a very important position in this forum!!!.

thanks

You are blaming me for telling you bad news on the 1st day. Central Bank also giving very positive news by taking over the management of ESL.

Hi Quibit, thanks for your reply. it is appreciated very much.

however I could not agree with your observation.

in fact the central bank is even at this latter stage doing its duty to protect us, the innocent people by going public. is in it shows that there are some good people still there and save our systems.they could have easily swept this under the carpet......( may be your MR government could have done that )

I wish to take this as a good sign , that we all as to take because the central bank is taking its acts and putting things right. even at this late stage . but I accept that it is bad timing to come out with

also just because one company has done some thing wrong does not mean that all companies are same.

your words of " imminent Crash " is an ill judged wording.

come on quibit have a break if you are having a headache

any way that's is how I think

thanks

10 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Jan 05, 2016 1:05 pm

Deva


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@vic19 wrote:
@Quibit wrote:
@vic19 wrote:
@Quibit wrote:Stock market journey towards ASI 6000 commenced in the new year with a good note today signalling imminent crash of the CSE. It seems happening sooner than we all thought! Hope I could save my skirt from this tide!
Can Soro's save us!

" DOOM monger Quibit " on the very 1st day of the year  of trading has started her usual random alibi..

just because your PMB is going lower and lower the market will not go down Miss....

it is still holidays for foreign investors to come and invest proper ( their Christmas turkey has not yet digested ).

 pls don't you spread rumors as you hold a very important position in this forum!!!.

thanks

You are blaming me for telling you bad news on the 1st day. Central Bank also giving very positive news by taking over the management of ESL.

Hi Quibit, thanks for your reply. it is appreciated very much.

however I could not agree with your observation.

in fact the central bank is even at this latter stage doing its duty to protect us, the innocent people by going public. is in it shows that there are some good people still there and save our systems.they could have easily swept this under the carpet......( may be your MR government could have done that )

I wish to take this as a good sign , that we all as to take because the central bank is taking its acts and putting things right. even at this late stage . but I accept that it is bad timing to come out with

also just because one company has done some thing wrong does not mean that all companies are same.

your words of " imminent Crash " is an ill judged wording.

come on quibit have a break if you are having a headache

any way that's is how I think

thanks
Good one vic19. Quibit and some around Quibit including the Admin are making this forum very unpleasant, unethical, non-factual and sluggish. No proper discussions on the shares and doesn't add any value. There are much better forums than this.

11 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Jan 05, 2016 2:23 pm

nalban


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Don't blame Quibit for telling the truth. we have seen only the down trend throughout and nothing positive in the macro economy to see any upward trend.
People who could not sell on time like me knows the pain.
.

12 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Jan 05, 2016 2:25 pm

ranferdi

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Some people well connected to previous regime are acting as terrorists in market today. They only see negative news and actively hiding all positive news. 

It seems like they do not have investments now and waiting for market to nosedive to enter.

http://::::THIS EMAIL DOESNT WORK.. PLEASE CONTACT ME ON FB ACCO

13 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Jan 05, 2016 2:26 pm

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Though economic indicators do not display a rosy picture in the near term, the revamp is still visible in the long run perhaps by introducing painful monetary policies.


Market concerned, it is too early to predicate market status healthy or unhealthy. My impartial opinion is “crash” or “imminent crash” not yet to be identified but the trend could be further analysed after first quarter.

14 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Jan 05, 2016 3:10 pm

jayathu


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@ranferdi you're an idiot to blame previous govt and supporters for the continuous decline of the share market.

Market is going down due to following decision;

Super Gain Tax- This measure destroyed market confidence

Loose govt expenditure- Can you tell me current budget deficit after all the amendments?? 

Foreign borrowing- Even though current govt said they can borrow USD at lower rate than previous regime but its not happening. Govt issued 2 USD denominated Bonds at 6.25%. They blamed previous regime for borrowing money from china at 3%. 

Increment of SRR- this measure impact Banks negatively.

Increment of tax regime on finance and insurance companies.

Actions of central bank- Every month we print more money to pay off maturing T'Bonds and afterwards CB put an auction to mop up the excess liquidity due to printing of cash. 

Cancellation of Casino mixed development projects- JKH share was negatively impacted due to this measure. I'm for casino if they impose 250USD entrance fee on locals. everyone scared of us being like Thailand or Macau but look at Singapore. They managed to keep social impact at a minimum rate. We need to tap into china n india wealthy clients which goes abroad for gambling purposes. 

ASI and SnP goes down when JKH n banks goes down
ASI and SnP goes up when JKH and banks are up   

Devaluing rupee- Whats the point of foreigners investing in our shares when our rupee devalues every day. 

USA interest rate hike

weak china and russia economy

ISIS issue destabilizing middle east part of the world.


all above factors are not previous regime fault. You have to blame current govt and external environmental factors beyond our control for the current market decline.

15 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Jan 05, 2016 5:16 pm

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@ranferdi wrote:Some people well connected to previous regime are acting as terrorists in market today. They only see negative news and actively hiding all positive news. 

Why don't you come out with all the positive news that you claim to be hidden. Actively expose, Please!

16 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Jan 05, 2016 10:33 pm

Chinwi

avatar
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
The real terrorists are the people who run a country without a budget.

Budgeting = balancing income & expenses .

17 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Jan 05, 2016 11:19 pm

omegaplus

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
At the moment there are so many shares oversold. I'm glad these market manipulators keep selling as they will stuck at some point when they can't buy enough quantities for that any more. Sooner they will have have to buy and they will be the one who going to push the market up unless they take money and put in FDs.ShockedShocked Either way its more stable market than year ago with lots of under value shares.

18 Re: Market crash imminent on Wed Jan 06, 2016 2:55 am

Yahapalanaya

avatar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Company asset is more than current price and company is running in profit.Who cares about market crash.

For example ACL market value 119 but asset value more than 130 and company running in profits 600Million profit in last 6 months(Anualised EPS more than 35).It's profit increase further due to low raw material price,corporate tax reduction,it's subsisdy's progress,etc.Who cares even market price artificially go to 60..

Only those speculative and promotion share holders will be perished.

So Real investors won't worry.

Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Twisted Evil

19 Re: Market crash imminent on Wed Jan 06, 2016 8:07 am

jayathu


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Yahapalanaya please dont post stupid argument for the sake of arguing. Have you heard anything about Opportunity Cost. 

Like you said there're some very much undervalued stocks in cse, one is ACL. Your theory "Who cares about market crash" when investing in undervalued counter is stupid. Might as well keep your money in a FD and invest back in stock exchange when the market crash. Then you can buy more of ACL. When market crash no one will come out unscathed even though how undervalued the counter is. 

I'm not saying there might be market crash like china experiencing these days but i can see slow decline in the index due to declining external environmental factors and measures taken by govt and CB. 

I like your theory of investing in undervalued stocks but hold on to some cash if the market comes down to invest further in those counters.

20 Re: Market crash imminent on Wed Jan 06, 2016 8:20 am

omegaplus

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Wonder if how many of these investors/traders were doing investing/trading  during the war, when bombs going on . It is much different situation now.If some one saying market is going down for genuine reason , remember, think back. Those days banks used to pay more than 15% interest. Most business made losses. Hotel sector was dead.Airport attached and Sri Lankan planes were on fire.

  If any of those saying this few hiccups are real reason for a market crash, its more like hopefully thinking or just part of manipulation . But yes, there are few reasons to market go down.But they are no way near good enough reasons to market crash.

21 Re: Market crash imminent on Wed Jan 06, 2016 8:32 am

jayathu


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
http://www.economynext.com/Sri_Lanka_private_credit_soars_to_Rs158bn_amid_money_printing-3-3894-1.html 


Please read above article, Like i said earlier i don't see imminent market crash but i can see slow decline in the index. We are heading into BOP crisis if carry on like this.  Drastic action have to be taken by the govt to improve our fiscal and monetary position.

22 Re: Market crash imminent on Wed Jan 06, 2016 9:40 am

Quibit

avatar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Sri Lanka private credit soars to Rs158bn amid money printing

ECONOMYNEXT - Sri Lanka's credit from commercial banks to private borrowers hit a never-before-seen high of 158.3 billion rupees doubling from previous high of 87.5 billion rupees hit in September, data showed, amid money printing and dollar inflows.

Credit to private borrowers rose 26.3 percent to 3,146 billion rupees in October from a year earlier.

Credit to the central government rose 32.2 billion rupees to 1,810 billion rupees, up 29.2 percent from a year earlier.

State enterprises borrowed another 5.5 billion rupees during October. State enterprise borrowing were up 31 percent to 535 billion rupees, from a year earlier.

Total credit given by the banking system to private and state borrowers rose to 196 billion rupees in October from an already high of 172.8 billion rupees.

In September and October the Central Bank rejected real bids for auctions of Treasury bills and printed money to repay them, injecting synthetic deposits for banks to give credit, drive imports and put pressure on the currency.

In September data shows that 79 billion rupees was printed. In October, outstanding central bank credit or printed money only went up 15.3 billion rupees, because Treasuries in its portfolio were sold down to sterilize proceeds of a bond sale.

Though it is not clear where most of the credit went, vehicle purchases and import credit may have played a part, analysts say.

By cutting policy rates in April and printing large volumes of money, the Central Bank has fired a consumption and import boom adding to salary increases and energy price cuts by the government which has severely damaged fiscal policy.

In December the Central Bank again did not raise policy rates, but hiked the statutory reserve ratio.

Sri Lanka's rupee has collapsed from 131 to 144 to the US dollar during the year as money was printed in large volumes, but inflation has not picked up to the same pace as global commodity prices were weak.

23 Re: Market crash imminent on Wed Jan 06, 2016 2:33 pm

Quibit

avatar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Bank will have a huge negative impact to their earnings due to increased reserve requirement.

24 Re: Market crash imminent on Wed Jan 06, 2016 11:03 pm

Yahapalanaya

avatar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@jayathu wrote:Yahapalanaya please dont post stupid argument for the sake of arguing. Have you heard anything about Opportunity Cost. 

Like you said there're some very much undervalued stocks in cse, one is ACL. Your theory "Who cares about market crash" when investing in undervalued counter is stupid. Might as well keep your money in a FD and invest back in stock exchange when the market crash. Then you can buy more of ACL. When market crash no one will come out unscathed even though how undervalued the counter is. 

I'm not saying there might be market crash like china experiencing these days but i can see slow decline in the index due to declining external environmental factors and measures taken by govt and CB. 

I like your theory of investing in undervalued stocks but hold on to some cash if the market comes down to invest further in those counters.
Then you sell your stock at current price and put it in FD.Are you dreaming to buy ACL in 60s... Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

Thosewho sell good counters at current price will learn lesson.We have seen up and downs of CSE.It survived LTTE period central bank attack,Tsunami,bombs,MARA white vans,etc.etc .CSE camethrough all obstacles.

So don't make panick new investors to please your defeated master... Embarassed Embarassed Embarassed

25 Re: Market crash imminent on Thu Jan 07, 2016 7:52 am

jayathu


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@yahapalanaya please note that i was one of the people who voted for MS n for UNP govt afterwards because of there talk. They promised so many things n delivered so less. Now regretting my decision very much. 

Market is going down due to following decision;

Super Gain Tax- This measure destroyed market confidence

Loose govt expenditure- Can you tell me current budget deficit after all the amendments?? 

Foreign borrowing- Even though current govt said they can borrow USD at lower rate than previous regime but its not happening. Govt issued 2 USD denominated Bonds at 6.25%. They blamed previous regime for borrowing money from china at 3%. 

Increment of SRR- this measure impact Banks negatively.

Increment of tax regime on finance and insurance companies.

Actions of central bank- Every month we print more money to pay off maturing T'Bonds and afterwards CB put an auction to mop up the excess liquidity due to printing of cash. 

Cancellation of Casino mixed development projects- JKH share was negatively impacted due to this measure. I'm for casino if they impose 250USD entrance fee on locals. everyone scared of us being like Thailand or Macau but look at Singapore. They managed to keep social impact at a minimum rate. We need to tap into china n india wealthy clients which goes abroad for gambling purposes. 

ASI and SnP goes down when JKH n banks goes down
ASI and SnP goes up when JKH and banks are up   

Devaluing rupee- Whats the point of foreigners investing in our shares when our rupee devalues every day. 

Increasing Interest rate and Brokers instructing retailers to cash out 30% of there portfolio.

USA interest rate hike

weak china and russia economy

ISIS issue destabilizing middle east part of the world.


all above factors are not previous regime fault. You have to blame current govt and external environmental factors beyond our control for the current market decline. 

Above are the details i base my assumption on that market will slide further. Please argue on above points i mentioned. Let me know your factual information you base your theory on market will recover. If you're wise enough to do it without putting petty comments about political situation.

26 Re: Market crash imminent on Thu Jan 07, 2016 8:21 am

omegaplus

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I love to see those guys who give so much details not only about Sri lanka also internationally when they want to show how bad the SL economy going to do. Just wonder same guys  posted so many things regarding Sri lanka becoming wonder of Asia about year or so ago?

Beside of that it seems like this is end of the world as they informing us . I hope they already found a bullletproof  bunker as you can order them from US firms. 
I really hope this forum will become a bit more professional than just  a face of propagandas.

27 Re: Market crash imminent on Thu Jan 07, 2016 9:54 am

shadow walker

avatar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@jayathu wrote:@yahapalanaya please note that i was one of the people who voted for MS n for UNP govt afterwards because of there talk. They promised so many things n delivered so less. Now regretting my decision very much. 

Market is going down due to following decision;

Super Gain Tax- This measure destroyed market confidence

Loose govt expenditure- Can you tell me current budget deficit after all the amendments?? 

Foreign borrowing- Even though current govt said they can borrow USD at lower rate than previous regime but its not happening. Govt issued 2 USD denominated Bonds at 6.25%. They blamed previous regime for borrowing money from china at 3%. 

Increment of SRR- this measure impact Banks negatively.

Increment of tax regime on finance and insurance companies.

Actions of central bank- Every month we print more money to pay off maturing T'Bonds and afterwards CB put an auction to mop up the excess liquidity due to printing of cash. 

Cancellation of Casino mixed development projects- JKH share was negatively impacted due to this measure. I'm for casino if they impose 250USD entrance fee on locals. everyone scared of us being like Thailand or Macau but look at Singapore. They managed to keep social impact at a minimum rate. We need to tap into china n india wealthy clients which goes abroad for gambling purposes. 

ASI and SnP goes down when JKH n banks goes down
ASI and SnP goes up when JKH and banks are up   

Devaluing rupee- Whats the point of foreigners investing in our shares when our rupee devalues every day. 

Increasing Interest rate and Brokers instructing retailers to cash out 30% of there portfolio.

USA interest rate hike

weak china and russia economy

ISIS issue destabilizing middle east part of the world.


all above factors are not previous regime fault. You have to blame current govt and external environmental factors beyond our control for the current market decline. 

Above are the details i base my assumption on that market will slide further. Please argue on above points i mentioned. Let me know your factual information you base your theory on market will recover. If you're wise enough to do it without putting petty comments about political situation.


well said.. thank you dear..
we are very happy to have people like you in CSE..
don't give up... go on.... Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

28 Re: Market crash imminent on Thu Jan 07, 2016 9:59 am

shadow walker

avatar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@omegaplus wrote:I love to see those guys who give so much details not only about Sri lanka also internationally when they want to show how bad the SL economy going to do. Just wonder same guys  posted so many things regarding Sri lanka becoming wonder of Asia about year or so ago?

Beside of that it seems like this is end of the world as they informing us . I hope they already found a bullletproof  bunker as you can order them from US firms. 
I really hope this forum will become a bit more professional than just  a face of propagandas.

Warren Buffett

 
"During the last few months the stock market took a big dip. Just about every stock is down which has caused people to become fearful about playing in the stock market. I don’t know if the stock market is at its lowest and truthfully I don’t really care. I just know that within the next 5 years it should be doing better than it is now and because of this I am being greedy when it comes to playing the stock market."


“We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.” Warren knows that the stock market is full of folly. He knows that emotions like hope, greed, and fear dictate stock prices rather than logic and value. When people are panicky or fearful (as in a bear market) he takes that chance to buy great companies at cheap prices. As long as he does his research and knows the real value behind a company, he doesn’t get scared of its price fluctuations.

29 Re: Market crash imminent on Thu Jan 07, 2016 11:17 am

Yahapalanaya

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Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@jayathu wrote:@yahapalanaya please note that i was one of the people who voted for MS n for UNP govt afterwards because of there talk. They promised so many things n delivered so less. Now regretting my decision very much. 

Market is going down due to following decision;

Super Gain Tax- This measure destroyed market confidence

Loose govt expenditure- Can you tell me current budget deficit after all the amendments?? 

Foreign borrowing- Even though current govt said they can borrow USD at lower rate than previous regime but its not happening. Govt issued 2 USD denominated Bonds at 6.25%. They blamed previous regime for borrowing money from china at 3%. 

Increment of SRR- this measure impact Banks negatively.

Increment of tax regime on finance and insurance companies.

Actions of central bank- Every month we print more money to pay off maturing T'Bonds and afterwards CB put an auction to mop up the excess liquidity due to printing of cash. 

Cancellation of Casino mixed development projects- JKH share was negatively impacted due to this measure. I'm for casino if they impose 250USD entrance fee on locals. everyone scared of us being like Thailand or Macau but look at Singapore. They managed to keep social impact at a minimum rate. We need to tap into china n india wealthy clients which goes abroad for gambling purposes. 

ASI and SnP goes down when JKH n banks goes down
ASI and SnP goes up when JKH and banks are up   

Devaluing rupee- Whats the point of foreigners investing in our shares when our rupee devalues every day. 

Increasing Interest rate and Brokers instructing retailers to cash out 30% of there portfolio.

USA interest rate hike

weak china and russia economy

ISIS issue destabilizing middle east part of the world.


all above factors are not previous regime fault. You have to blame current govt and external environmental factors beyond our control for the current market decline. 

Above are the details i base my assumption on that market will slide further. Please argue on above points i mentioned. Let me know your factual information you base your theory on market will recover. If you're wise enough to do it without putting petty comments about political situation.
Supergain tax one time only.

Bank and insurance company tax increased but corporate tax reduced to 15% all other companies.So It is beneficial to hundreds of companies in CSE.

When was surplus budget in Srilanka..Was surplus Budget in MARA regime..

Which interest rate increased..

If you want to follow broker instruction to cash out 30% of PF,trade your stock as per their advice.That's your problem.We don't need brokers advice to purchase or sell our stock.

Will MARA and gang support CASINO mixed development..

What Srilankan govt can do for weak China and Russian economy..

What do you want Srilankan govt to do for ISIS...

There are tons of positives in budget,salary increase,oil and gas price reduction,....I will list separately if you want

So Be positive.Market will go up.

By the by thanks for voting Yahapalanaya.

30 Re: Market crash imminent on Thu Jan 07, 2016 11:24 am

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
WELL SAID YAHAPALANAYA. AT THE MOMENT PRIORITY IS FOR "BRAPALANAYA".

31 Re: Market crash imminent on Thu Jan 07, 2016 2:30 pm

jayathu


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@yahapalanaya please read what i wrote carefully before arguing. I mentioned "You have to blame current govt and external environmental factors beyond our control for the current market decline."


First i have mentioned the actions govt took which were harmful to the market confidence, then i pointed the external factors affecting the market.  

32 Re: Market crash imminent on Thu Jan 07, 2016 2:51 pm

visionstar


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Yes but no point in arguing. We all have to plan our strategies as Government and external factors are beyond our control.

33 Re: Market crash imminent on Sat Jan 09, 2016 7:13 am

Quibit

avatar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Isn't this a crash so far this year. Where are we heading?
Debt crisis...???

34 Re: Market crash imminent on Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:28 am

Sstar

avatar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Here we Go below 6700! Sad towards ????

35 Re: Market crash imminent on Mon Jan 11, 2016 11:50 am

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
SRR (Statutory Reserve Ratio) represent the amount of deposit to be placed at the CB for their deposit liabilities). It is the amount that banks have no access to lend out. Also, it has direct & immediate impact on the money supply. Money supply directly affects interest rate in the economy.


SLCB attempted to volatility of exchange rate in the past while maintaining low interest rate. Monetary analyst believe this is a strikingly different policy (contrasting policy issue) as it leads to rising inflation & declining foreign reserves due to high imports.


Some argue, increasing SRR % produces a dramatic effect on nominal GDP (Gross domestic product) as banks are restricted to loan out for investment & businesses.  Fundamentally, stimulation or slowing down in economy depend on decrease/increase of the rate respectively.


What do SL need now? Stimulation or slow down?

Contrasting views are welcome.

36 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Jan 12, 2016 12:55 pm

Sstar

avatar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Quibit wrote:Stock market journey towards ASI 6000 commenced in the new year with a good note today signalling imminent crash of the CSE. It seems happening sooner than we all thought! Hope I could save my skirt from this tide!
Can Soro's save us!

Wow!. Good call. Right time Right advise.... Market has fallen more than 300 points from the day of the prediction.

4th Jan 2016 - ASI 6894
12th Jan 2016 (so far) - ASI 6575



Last edited by Sstar on Tue Jan 12, 2016 1:05 pm; edited 3 times in total

37 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Jan 12, 2016 12:57 pm

dsam

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Quibit wrote:Stock market journey towards ASI 6000 commenced in the new year with a good note today signalling imminent crash of the CSE. It seems happening sooner than we all thought! Hope I could save my skirt from this tide!
Can Soro's save us!
 most of your predictions were true.

38 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:08 pm

Sstar

avatar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Yahapalanaya wrote:
@jayathu wrote:Yahapalanaya please dont post stupid argument for the sake of arguing. Have you heard anything about Opportunity Cost. 

Like you said there're some very much undervalued stocks in cse, one is ACL. Your theory "Who cares about market crash" when investing in undervalued counter is stupid. Might as well keep your money in a FD and invest back in stock exchange when the market crash. Then you can buy more of ACL. When market crash no one will come out unscathed even though how undervalued the counter is. 

I'm not saying there might be market crash like china experiencing these days but i can see slow decline in the index due to declining external environmental factors and measures taken by govt and CB. 

I like your theory of investing in undervalued stocks but hold on to some cash if the market comes down to invest further in those counters.
Then you sell your stock at current price and put it in FD.Are you dreaming to buy ACL in 60s... Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

Thosewho sell good counters at current price will learn lesson.We have seen up and downs of CSE.It survived LTTE period central bank attack,Tsunami,bombs,MARA white vans,etc.etc .CSE camethrough all obstacles.

So don't make panick new investors to please your defeated master... Embarassed Embarassed Embarassed

Yahapalanya, Hope you have got your money in the bank. Smile



Last edited by Sstar on Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:12 pm; edited 1 time in total

39 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:10 pm

fireshelter

avatar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

40 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Jan 12, 2016 9:26 pm

Yahapalanaya

avatar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Sstar wrote:
@Yahapalanaya wrote:
@jayathu wrote:Yahapalanaya please dont post stupid argument for the sake of arguing. Have you heard anything about Opportunity Cost. 

Like you said there're some very much undervalued stocks in cse, one is ACL. Your theory "Who cares about market crash" when investing in undervalued counter is stupid. Might as well keep your money in a FD and invest back in stock exchange when the market crash. Then you can buy more of ACL. When market crash no one will come out unscathed even though how undervalued the counter is. 

I'm not saying there might be market crash like china experiencing these days but i can see slow decline in the index due to declining external environmental factors and measures taken by govt and CB. 

I like your theory of investing in undervalued stocks but hold on to some cash if the market comes down to invest further in those counters.
Then you sell your stock at current price and put it in FD.Are you dreaming to buy ACL in 60s... Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

Thosewho sell good counters at current price will learn lesson.We have seen up and downs of CSE.It survived LTTE period central bank attack,Tsunami,bombs,MARA white vans,etc.etc .CSE camethrough all obstacles.

So don't make panick new investors to please your defeated master... Embarassed Embarassed Embarassed

Yahapalanya, Hope you have got your money in the bank. Smile
No I still hold my shares.I am an investor not a trader. I have seen up and down of market.

My holdings are with strong fundamentals and those companies running in profits.Suppose you closed those companies and sell it's asset at current price, you would get more than current market price of most of those shares.I am not in credit either.

I am not invested in speculative shares.I didn't ask anybody to buy my shares.My comment on shares always be with back ups such as NAT,EPS,budget proposal,currency fluctuations.

So I need not to promote my shares and misguide anyone.

SStar, you should have directed this coment to those people say buy,buy,buy....good new coming next week.....Share division coming soon....illiquid shares...

Cheers. Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

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