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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Market crash imminent

Market crash imminent

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1 Market crash imminent on Mon Jan 04, 2016 6:14 pm

Quibit

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Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
First topic message reminder :

Stock market journey towards ASI 6000 commenced in the new year with a good note today signalling imminent crash of the CSE. It seems happening sooner than we all thought! Hope I could save my skirt from this tide!
Can Soro's save us!


41 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Jan 12, 2016 12:55 pm

Sstar


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Quibit wrote:Stock market journey towards ASI 6000 commenced in the new year with a good note today signalling imminent crash of the CSE. It seems happening sooner than we all thought! Hope I could save my skirt from this tide!
Can Soro's save us!

Wow!. Good call. Right time Right advise.... Market has fallen more than 300 points from the day of the prediction.

4th Jan 2016 - ASI 6894
12th Jan 2016 (so far) - ASI 6575



Last edited by Sstar on Tue Jan 12, 2016 1:05 pm; edited 3 times in total

42 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Jan 12, 2016 12:57 pm

dsam


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Quibit wrote:Stock market journey towards ASI 6000 commenced in the new year with a good note today signalling imminent crash of the CSE. It seems happening sooner than we all thought! Hope I could save my skirt from this tide!
Can Soro's save us!
 most of your predictions were true.

43 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:08 pm

Sstar


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Yahapalanaya wrote:
@jayathu wrote:Yahapalanaya please dont post stupid argument for the sake of arguing. Have you heard anything about Opportunity Cost. 

Like you said there're some very much undervalued stocks in cse, one is ACL. Your theory "Who cares about market crash" when investing in undervalued counter is stupid. Might as well keep your money in a FD and invest back in stock exchange when the market crash. Then you can buy more of ACL. When market crash no one will come out unscathed even though how undervalued the counter is. 

I'm not saying there might be market crash like china experiencing these days but i can see slow decline in the index due to declining external environmental factors and measures taken by govt and CB. 

I like your theory of investing in undervalued stocks but hold on to some cash if the market comes down to invest further in those counters.
Then you sell your stock at current price and put it in FD.Are you dreaming to buy ACL in 60s... Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

Thosewho sell good counters at current price will learn lesson.We have seen up and downs of CSE.It survived LTTE period central bank attack,Tsunami,bombs,MARA white vans,etc.etc .CSE camethrough all obstacles.

So don't make panick new investors to please your defeated master... Embarassed Embarassed Embarassed

Yahapalanya, Hope you have got your money in the bank. Smile



Last edited by Sstar on Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:12 pm; edited 1 time in total

44 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:10 pm

fireshelter


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

45 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Jan 12, 2016 9:26 pm

Yahapalanaya


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Sstar wrote:
@Yahapalanaya wrote:
@jayathu wrote:Yahapalanaya please dont post stupid argument for the sake of arguing. Have you heard anything about Opportunity Cost. 

Like you said there're some very much undervalued stocks in cse, one is ACL. Your theory "Who cares about market crash" when investing in undervalued counter is stupid. Might as well keep your money in a FD and invest back in stock exchange when the market crash. Then you can buy more of ACL. When market crash no one will come out unscathed even though how undervalued the counter is. 

I'm not saying there might be market crash like china experiencing these days but i can see slow decline in the index due to declining external environmental factors and measures taken by govt and CB. 

I like your theory of investing in undervalued stocks but hold on to some cash if the market comes down to invest further in those counters.
Then you sell your stock at current price and put it in FD.Are you dreaming to buy ACL in 60s... Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

Thosewho sell good counters at current price will learn lesson.We have seen up and downs of CSE.It survived LTTE period central bank attack,Tsunami,bombs,MARA white vans,etc.etc .CSE camethrough all obstacles.

So don't make panick new investors to please your defeated master... Embarassed Embarassed Embarassed

Yahapalanya, Hope you have got your money in the bank. Smile
No I still hold my shares.I am an investor not a trader. I have seen up and down of market.

My holdings are with strong fundamentals and those companies running in profits.Suppose you closed those companies and sell it's asset at current price, you would get more than current market price of most of those shares.I am not in credit either.

I am not invested in speculative shares.I didn't ask anybody to buy my shares.My comment on shares always be with back ups such as NAT,EPS,budget proposal,currency fluctuations.

So I need not to promote my shares and misguide anyone.

SStar, you should have directed this coment to those people say buy,buy,buy....good new coming next week.....Share division coming soon....illiquid shares...

Cheers. Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

46 Re: Market crash imminent on Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:30 pm

Jeremy

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Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Quibit wrote:Stock market journey towards ASI 6000 commenced in the new year with a good note today signalling imminent crash of the CSE. It seems happening sooner than we all thought! Hope I could save my skirt from this tide!
Can Soro's save us!

What a crash in 14 days!!! I think sentiment indicator Bear and Bull sentient POLL indicator should be reversed. Smile

Can I change the Poll results from Bull to Bear!!!

47 Re: Market crash imminent on Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:38 pm

VALUEPICK

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Expert
Expert
It is a kind of well planned attack on markets globally. It happened here as well. They will go up strongly again.
 
We will always see bulls and bears in the market. I am always bullish on some sectors, stocks and  some commodities and some currencies and bearish on some stocks, sectors and commodities according to the market situation.  Others wanted to dump USD. Instead I told others not to do that  They wanted to keep Gold, Oil,Rubber, NZD and AUD. Now some are bearish on rupee. I am bullish on rupee too.

48 Re: Market crash imminent on Sun Mar 06, 2016 11:50 am

Quibit

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Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Hmm . I said it

49 Re: Market crash imminent on Sun Mar 06, 2016 1:14 pm

VALUEPICK

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Expert
Expert
After this bear attack, those who picked correct type of stocks globally have become winners. Some are enjoying all time high and 52 weeks high. Even there were some returns (around 10% to 20%) from badly beaten down some resources stocks and oil.  

Lately, we are seeing some strength in Asian currencies and stocks. Taiwan dollar, Philippine peso and Indonesian rupiah all touched multi-month highs. Indian rupee also rallied. In addition Yuan, strengthened against the dollar.

Investors are coming back to badly beaten down Asian markets as well.  Many were bearish on oil. Oil cannot stay below $30 for a long period. As I said before it should average $35/38 in 2016/17 while having volatility.

DOW smashed 17,000 on Friday. There were many wining stocks in global market despite bear attack. For example American chickens are having one of the powerful and the longest bull markets despite their flue panic in 2015/16. Some wanted to short their chicken cycle in 2014/15. They missed their all time high gain as well as 52 weeks high gain in 2016. Some are reporting new 52 weeks high as well.

There will be more opportunity for intelligent investors globally as well as in Sri-Lanka despite some gloom predictions by some market participants.

We will find winning stocks in all types of market. Every pull back, market sell-off and correction have created opportunity for some investors in this global bull market.

Peter Lynch’s Principle #4

You can't see the future through a rear-view mirror.

Chapter 2 of the book talks about "weekend worriers", those pundits that always have a thousand reasons why the economy is bad and it is not a good time to invest in stocks. He points out that even he is guilty of this, appearing on the prestigious Barren's panel on the state of the economy to prognosticate and outdo the other panelists on why the market is about to crash. He also notes that none of the people on the Barren's portfolio are anything less than the top experts on investment, managers of the biggest and best funds and all highly respected, obviously even with all the doom-saying they still find some time to invest. Lynch advocates looking at stocks for their own value, not to go in for top-down analysis in some futile attempt to predict the state of the economy and their effects on stock prices. The market crashes when stocks are way over valued, and doesn't usually crash again until stocks have become over valued again. His point comes down to the old saying, "buy in gloom, sell in boom". When the experts are bearish is the time to buy.

50 Re: Market crash imminent on Mon Mar 07, 2016 9:54 am

USA BOY


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Worse is yet to come...

51 Re: Market crash imminent on Mon Mar 07, 2016 10:08 am

EquityChamp

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Moderator
All these days the talk was that government is not taking appropriate measures to fix the goverment finances and hence the market coming down. Now the same people are trying to spread scares stating many taxes are going to come hence the market should go down further.
Now the question is whether actually the current state of affairs is a manipulated context on behalf of group of people or a real fear-driven panic.Question

52 Re: Market crash imminent on Mon Mar 07, 2016 10:31 am

ranferdi

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Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
The recent decision taken by government to reverse certain changes done in the budget is good for market. 

But that has proved the FM is not fit for job or he had no proper data to estimate the depth of the debt trap we are in.

Hope everyone learns their lessons and market will turn soon given that the fiscal situation will improve.

http://::::THIS EMAIL DOESNT WORK.. PLEASE CONTACT ME ON FB ACCO

53 Re: Market crash imminent on Mon Mar 07, 2016 12:25 pm

Joe007


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
The government tried many ways to bring the country from debt burden. Unfortunately they couldn't do it because they had to attract investors, subsidies for people, etc.....

The main problem is too much debt and hidden debts too.
At present situation the government should amend the proposal to save the country also they should not hurt the investment as they will hurt the country further investments. There are many ways to make revenue but implementing those ideas would have negative thought by the local citizens to the government. That is the main problem they have at this time. All the fraud politicians are waiting for the time to take the opportunity of government to steal more and more and also avoid any investigation.

54 Re: Market crash imminent on Mon Mar 07, 2016 1:13 pm

Pac-man

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Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Swarnawahini news
 
kiwwa, okkoma tax scene talks presiident Maithree Cancel kara kiyala

55 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Mar 08, 2016 6:51 am

Jeremy

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Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@USA BOY wrote:Worse is yet to come...
Current government is not concerned about the economy of the country. They are interested in staying in power at any cost. Tax the people, tax the companies and give subsidies and pay government servants their increments. No development.. Dooms day continues..

56 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Mar 08, 2016 7:19 am

soileconomy

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Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
An undisclosed loan--New way of bridging budget deficit which last budget could not meet.New way of doing things with a change

57 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Mar 08, 2016 8:58 am

jayathu


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
where is @yahapalanaya, @omegaplus and @samaritan?? you guys blasted us argued with us about when we predicted the index decline. Blasted our opinion on cashing out 30% of our portfolio at that tym, saying we'll regret it. Sure enough as predicted market index came down faster than we thought. 

We'll wait and see what Ranil will say tonight. If capital gain is imposed on share transactions i can see further decline in the short run but these tax revision are needed for the economy to avoid crisis. If these tax revisions are imposed i'l be bullish towards the cse in the medium n long run.

58 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Mar 08, 2016 9:57 am

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@jayathu wrote:where is @yahapalanaya, @omegaplus and @samaritan?? you guys blasted us argued with us about when we predicted the index decline. Blasted our opinion on cashing out 30% of our portfolio at that tym, saying we'll regret it. Sure enough as predicted market index came down faster than we thought. 

We'll wait and see what Ranil will say tonight. If capital gain is imposed on share transactions i can see further decline in the short run but these tax revision are needed for the economy to avoid crisis. If these tax revisions are imposed i'l be bullish towards the cse in the medium n long run.

Do understand the present rapid decline in ASI from today is owing to the news that CGT is going to be imposed to share transactions. In my opinion this was unforeseeable.

But let us see your prediction of a bull run in the medium term in the event CGT is imposed on CSE. In my opinion a DISASTER in waiting due to this unforeseeable event.

59 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Mar 08, 2016 10:09 am

EquityChamp

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Moderator
The way market moves it will be a panic 100 for red today.Embarassed

60 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Mar 08, 2016 10:16 am

jayathu


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Market was at a rapid declining state for the last two months. You can't say it was a unforeseeable situation when lot of people was predicting crisis is looming due to a pathetic budget. From the budget announcement lot people raised loads of concerns about the economy. Finally when the govt accepted that there's a crisis, only way forward was imposing new taxes to bridge the budget deficit.
No one knew what sought of taxes will be imposed but seeing taxes like capital gain taxes being imposed is not surprising.

61 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Mar 08, 2016 10:17 am

Yahapalanaya

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Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@EquityChamp wrote:All these days the talk was that government is not taking appropriate measures to fix the goverment finances and hence the market coming down. Now the same people are trying to spread scares stating many taxes are going to come hence the market should go down further.
Now the question is whether actually the current state of affairs is a manipulated context on behalf of group of people or a real fear-driven panic.Question
Yes.Some people cried when tax was reduced.Now same people make big issue for tax increase talk.Their intention is different.It won't happen.... Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

62 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Mar 08, 2016 10:19 am

USA BOY


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@EquityChamp wrote:The way market moves it will be a panic 100 for red today.Embarassed

Once psychological barrier of 6000 broken it will be like hot cake.. Sad Sad Sad Sad

Aurudden Aluth Ratak...

Well done yahapalanaya..

63 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Mar 08, 2016 10:27 am

EquityChamp

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Moderator
6000 is breached. 5820 be ready for the attack:shock:

64 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Mar 08, 2016 10:29 am

EquityChamp

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Moderator
The buy side of all the stocks looks deserts to me now.

65 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Mar 08, 2016 10:45 am

Chinwi

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Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
But, can they collect expected Tax when the economic activities going towards coma state ?

66 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Mar 08, 2016 11:06 am

Jeremy

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Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
There we go! 6000 is busted!
Look for the next deep hole. Sri Lankan Econmoic disaster. Classical case study how to drew up a developed country status to become the most fragile economy of Asia.
Well done Yahapalanya!

67 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Mar 08, 2016 11:07 am

A+


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Its 100 for Red side within 2 hours of trading, phew...

68 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Mar 08, 2016 11:40 am

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
Its an absolute carnage here @ CSE:affraid:What a Face

69 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Mar 08, 2016 11:45 am

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
A developed nation in 3years!
A smart nation in 5years!


BUT sadly RIP has preceded the ambitious programs.
Operation successful but patient died. What's to be done!

70 Re: Market crash imminent on Tue Mar 08, 2016 12:04 pm

VALUEPICK

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Expert
Expert
Don’t forget patient and disciplined investors are winners in any type of market. Short term volatility and all types of market drops will not make any difference to them and it is on the paper only. They know those papers (share certificates) have more value in the future. They have a plan and strategy. Market has cycles. Average investors should think about margin of safety.

What we are seeing today is an overreaction situation. Every day some one is selling and someone is buying.

71 Re: Market crash imminent on Wed Mar 09, 2016 2:06 pm

Jeremy

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Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Crash is not over

72 Re: Market crash imminent on Sat Aug 27, 2016 1:25 am

omegaplus

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Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@jayathu wrote:where is @yahapalanaya, @omegaplus and @samaritan?? you guys blasted us argued with us about when we predicted the index decline. Blasted our opinion on cashing out 30% of our portfolio at that tym, saying we'll regret it. Sure enough as predicted market index came down faster than we thought. 

We'll wait and see what Ranil will say tonight. If capital gain is imposed on share transactions i can see further decline in the short run but these tax revision are needed for the economy to avoid crisis. If these tax revisions are imposed i'l be bullish towards the cse in the medium n long run.
What I said was people acting like it was end  of the world, and after some months you can see some guys making much profits. We all have our political views, but end of the day market will be more to do with profit making rather .Guys making others picnic not helping you or any one else, they help them selves to buy cheap  and vice versa.

73 Re: Market crash imminent on Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:14 am

Teller

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Moderator
Agree with omega plus

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