Sri Lanka Equity Forum
Dear Reader,

Registration with the Sri Lanka Equity Forum would enable you to enjoy an array of other services such as Member Rankings, User Groups, Own Posts & Profile, Exclusive Research, Live Chat Box etc..

All information contained in this forum is subject to Disclaimer Notice published.


Thank You
Sri Lanka Equity Forum

Discussion Forum for Stock Market Investors in Sri Lanka

සිංහල පරිවර්තනය
Submit Post
Submit Post

Latest topics

» New to investing. Looking for advice
by srad11 Today at 8:20 am

» Weekly Stock Market Roundup
by Insights Equity Today at 6:30 am

» CROSSINGS TODAY
by sikka89 Yesterday at 6:45 pm

» Financial Reports Q-4 2018
by sikka89 Yesterday at 6:41 pm

» DIVIDEND ANNOUNCEMENTS- JAN/MARCH 2019
by sikka89 Yesterday at 6:33 pm

» Daily Stock Market Update
by Insights Equity Yesterday at 5:57 pm

» CTCE CTCE CTCE CTCE
by Agape Yesterday at 5:34 pm

» 20 companies hit 12 month low today
by aravinda123 Yesterday at 2:40 pm

» SRI LANKA,AMERICA 0027655786861 MAAMABARAKA 2019 INSTANT BLESSING SANDAWANA OIL/SKIN,BUSHILI OIL,HALUWA OIL,RUKUYA OIL FOR BRING BACK LOST LOVERS,SALARY INCREASE,BUSINESS BOOST,ATTRACT CUSTOMERS OMAN,KUWAIT,GERMAN,SOUTH AFRICA,LESOTHO
by maamabaraka Yesterday at 1:52 pm

» SRI LANKA+27655786861 TESSELLATED MAGIC RING/WALLET/SKIN FOR QUICK MAGIC MONEY,BRING BACK LOST LOVERS,SALARY INCREASE,STOP BAD LUCK AND SPELLS IN LIFE,QUICK SALE OF PROPERTY,FAMOUS AND RESPECT IN SOUTH AFRICA,ZIMBABWE,BOTSWANA,NAMIBIA
by maamabaraka Yesterday at 1:32 pm

» MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED
by pure equity Yesterday at 1:27 pm

» SRI LANKA 0027655786861 APETAMIN CREAM/YODI PILLS FOR HIPS,BUMS,BREASTS ENLARGEMENT WITH A PROVED SERVICE OF NO SIDE EFFECTS AT ALL SHARPE UP IN 3 DAYS TIME IN AMERICA,UK,SOUTH AFRICA,BOTSWANA
by maamabaraka Yesterday at 1:16 pm

» SRI LANKA,HAWAII,OREGON +27655786861 BE SMART JOIN ILLUMINATI NEW WORLD ORDER FOR MONEY POWER,SUCCESS IN LIFE AND BUSINESS,CHURCH POWERS TO PROPHETS,OVER COME ALL EVILS AND MAGIC POWERS,FAMOUS
by maamabaraka Yesterday at 1:00 pm

» SRI LANKA +27655786861 POWERFUL WOMAN LOVE SPELLS RITUAL,MONEY SPELLS,REVENGE SPELLS,STOP DIVORCE SPELLS IN SOUTH AFRICA,AMERICA,OMAN,SWEDEN,DUBAI
by maamabaraka Yesterday at 11:58 am

» 0027655786861 TIME TO WIN IT LOTTO/LOTTERY,POWER BALL,,JOCK POT INTERNATIONAL SPELLS GERMAN,SWEDEN,DUBAI,SOUTH AFRICA,NAMIBIA
by maamabaraka Yesterday at 11:40 am

» GOOD DEAL -SELL KAPI @ 18 LEVELS AND BUY BFN @ 14-50
by easthetic Yesterday at 7:31 am

» සල්ලි තියනවනම් දැන් නියම වෙලාව කියල එකතු කරන්න BFN -UBC -BALA -EAST - LEDV -KHL -KHC -SERV
by sanjulanka Yesterday at 6:52 am

» COLLECT AAIC FOR A BETTER FUTURE!!!
by wisdom79 Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:29 pm

» Sri Lanka rupee ends higher as banks sell dollar; stocks at near 4-mth low
by Ahcha Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:47 pm

» INSURANCE bubble finally bursting!
by nosf766 Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:22 am

» SFL deal price
by charithaa Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:00 am

» MGT - Collect n keep
by Trader321 Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:54 am

» UBC.N0000 ? what about the future ?
by Trader321 Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:49 am

» Deal Waligama Property to be sell EAST Interesting
by NCC Thu Feb 21, 2019 9:13 am

» SFL, where will it end by March
by sikka89 Thu Feb 21, 2019 5:30 am

» තාම dividend cheque නේද එන්නේ, කවදාද account එකට එන්නේ
by hasitha@CSE Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:58 pm

» Exit KAPI today
by Maharaja Wed Feb 20, 2019 3:08 pm

» Amibroker database
by Sonny Bill Wed Feb 20, 2019 12:59 pm

» ACCESS ENG
by sanjulanka Wed Feb 20, 2019 12:51 pm

» TKYO.N000 potential
by NP Wed Feb 20, 2019 12:00 pm

» JANASHAKTHI INSURANCE COMPANY PLC (JINS.N0000)
by cheetah Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:46 am

» CASH RICH REXP
by Cricketman Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:21 am

» Earn 50% Profit From Forex Monthly Without Stress
by princess111 Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:25 pm

» Ruwan 326 Please come back to the forum
by Miss-Sangeetha Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:06 pm

» Make a comfortable living as a day Trader
by Miss-Sangeetha Tue Feb 19, 2019 7:23 pm

» Daily Foreign Transactions
by sikka89 Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:49 pm

» Sleeping giants-
by Chanaka303 Mon Feb 18, 2019 4:56 pm

» Any news on TKYO.N0000
by Thushara Ayya Mon Feb 18, 2019 3:35 pm

» Can anyone recommend me a stock broker in Kandy
by Chanaka303 Mon Feb 18, 2019 2:21 pm

» CTCE ලාභාංශ පුරොකතනය.
by dmtmadusanka Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:22 am

You are not connected. Please login or register

Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market News » Wheat futures 'to stay below $5'... coffee price rally 'unlikely'

Wheat futures 'to stay below $5'... coffee price rally 'unlikely'

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

VALUEPICK

VALUEPICK
Expert
Expert
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/wheat-futures-to-stay-below-$5...-coffee-price-rally-unlikely--9427.html

Wheat futures will stay under $5 a bushel "for quite some time", Societe Generale said, in downbeat crop price forecasts, which ruled out a "significant rally" in coffee, and rated cotton among the few undervalued ags.

The bank - in a report which cut forecasts for the likes of cattle, soybean and coffee prices to levels below the futures curve – said that Chicago wheat prices would remain under pressure from a firm dollar, which would curtail a recovery in US exports.

"US exports will still be pressured by cheaper origins," SocGen said, pegging US shipments in 2016-17 at 775m bushels, well below the 850m bushels that US Department of Agriculture officials have pencilled in.

While the rouble is seen recovering against the dollar, cutting the competitiveness of Russian shipments, "the euro is expected to continue its weakness", the bank said.

'Stay below $5 a bushel'

Furthermore, forecasting a slightly stronger US yield this year than the USDA, SocGen estimated US inventories ending 2016-17 at 1.18bn bushels (32.1m tonnes), which would be a 29-year high.
"We forecast US inventories to remain more than ample in the foreseeable future, capping any significant price rallies," SocGen analyst Chris Narayanan said.

Chicago wheat futures, the world benchmark, "should stay below $5 a bushel for quite some time," the bank said, cutting its forecast for prices, on a quarter-average basis, by up to $0.25 a bushel to levels well below those investors are factoring in.

Futures in the first three months of next year, for instance, were seen averaging $4.34 a bushel compared with the $5.19 a bushel that March 2017 were trading at on Thursday.
And, on a year-average basis, they were forecast trading below $5 a bushel until 2019.
'Significant rally unlikely'

SocGen also made notable cuts to its forecast for New York arabica coffee prices, seeing by up to 13 cent a pound, now seeing them average 117.2 cents a pound in the last three months of 2016.

December futures were on Thursday trading at 138.65 cents a pound.

The price forecast came despite switching its forecast for the world production balance to a deficit of 1.0m bags, compared with a previous expectation of a 970,000-bag surplus.
The bank cited in part the poor performance of futures, "as the continued slide makes a significant rally unlikely absent any severe supply shock".

It also highlighted the revived output in Colombia, the second-ranked arabica-producing country, following a tree replanting campaign around the turn of the decade, although acknowledging that an imminent return to La Nina conditions would threaten the recovery, in often bringing unduly wet weather.

"Conversely, if El Niño were to persist into the June-August period, dry and warm weather would be seen in Colombia, helping flowering and providing more sunlight for the trees," Mr Narayanan said.

'No meaningful rally expected'

The bank, noting "excessively high" US soybean inventories, cut its estimates for Chicago futures in the oilseed too, by up to $0.30 a bushel, and forecast prices averaging $8.26 a bushel in the first three months of 2017.

March 2017 futures were trading at $9.17 ¼ a bushel.

And, while nudging higher estimates for corn futures, to levels within range of the current futures curve for the rest of 2016, it was cautious over prospects for a more meaningful recovery.
"Corn prices have, in our view, bottomed but no meaningful rally is expected," Mr Naryanan said.

'Sell-off overdone'

Cotton was among the few ag contracts SocGen saw as undervalued – sticking by expectations of New York futures averaging 64.5 cents a pound in the last three months of 2016, ahead of the 58.05 cents a pound that December futures were priced at on Friday.

The bank acknowledged the threat to demand from enhanced competition from synthetic fibres, while releases from China's swollen state inventories could quell orders on the international market from the top consuming country.

However, while Chinese imports "are lower year on year, opportunistic buying has kept Chinese imports above average", Mr Narayanan said, adding that "questions remain regarding the quality" of the country's inventories

"We see the recent sell-off [in futures] below 60 cents a pound as overdone."

Back to top  Message [Page 1 of 1]

Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum