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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Political and Socio-Economic Analysis » Rain, Rain Come Again!

Rain, Rain Come Again!

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1 Rain, Rain Come Again! on Tue Mar 29, 2016 10:34 am

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http://www.dailynews.lk/?q=2016/03/29/local/77747

Ending the dry spell in the country, rains were reported from most parts of the country yesterday. Heavy showers were reported from observation points in Trincomalee, Nuwera Eliya, Kandy and Ratmalana,

Meteorology Department sources said. Heavy showers were reported in Hambantota and from several parts of the country on Sunday.

Moderate rain fall was recorded in the Batticaloa, Kurunegala and Ratnapura districts, while the North Central, Western, Uva and Central Provinces received light rains.

Meanwhile, the Meteorology Department forecasts showers in the Northern, North-Central, Eastern and Uva Provinces and in the Hambantota district today.

Showers or thundershowers will occur at several places elsewhere after 2 pm.

Meteorology Department sources also said that there may be temporary localized strong winds during thundershowers.

The public is kindly requested to take adequate precautions to minimize damage caused by lightning activity.

2 Re: Rain, Rain Come Again! on Fri Apr 01, 2016 11:25 am

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Showers or thundershowers will occur at several places after 2.00 pm.

Department of Meteorology is kindly requesting general public to take adequate precautions to minimize damages caused by lightning activity.

3 Re: Rain, Rain Come Again! on Tue Apr 05, 2016 1:23 pm

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Inter-monsoon conditions got establish over the island.

Showers or thundershowers will occur in most provinces after 2.00 pm.

Fairly heavy falls (above 75mm) can be expected in some places.

4 Re: Rain, Rain Come Again! on Tue Apr 12, 2016 12:13 pm

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Showers or thundershowers will occur at several places over after 2.00 pm.

http://www.dailynews.lk/?q=2016/04/12/local/78932
 Sun over Sri Lanka

 The Sun will be moving directly over Sri Lanka from April 5 to 14, a Meteorology Department spokesman said. He said the Sun would be directly over the latitudes of Sri Lanka during this period, due to the apparent northward relative motion of the sun.


The spokesman said this is a usual biannual phenomenon. The nearest towns
of Sri Lanka over which the sun will be overhead today are Padawiya, Madhu, Nanaddan and Nochchikkulam about 12:11 noon.

Meanwhile, he requested the public to take adequate precautions to minimise damages caused by lightning activities popularly known as 'Bak Maha Akunu' experienced in April. "Showers or thundershowers will occur at several places over most provinces after 2pm. There is low possibility for thunderstorm to occur over the Eastern province and the Jaffna peninsula," the spokesman said. The closest towns the Sun will appear overhead at 12.11noon in the coming days are as follows:

April 12: Padawiya, Madhu, Nanaddan, Nochchikkulam
April 13: Uyilankulam, Vellankulam, Kulamurippu
April 14:Veeramalai, Mulliyan, Veddukaddu

5 Re: Rain, Rain Come Again! on Sun Apr 17, 2016 9:27 am

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Showers or thundershowers will occur at several places after 2.00 pm.
 
Rain during last 24 hours
 
Max. Rainfall 112.5 mm

Samanalawewa

6 Re: Rain, Rain Come Again! on Thu Apr 28, 2016 1:31 pm

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Normal rainfall for Sri Lanka in south-west monsoon this yea

http://www.economynext.com/Normal_rainfall_for_Sri_Lanka_in_south_west_monsoon_this_year-3-4829-13.html


ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka is likely to get normal rainfall in this year’s south-west monsoon, after below normal rainfall in 2015, S. R. Jayasekera, director of the Meteorology Department said. 

“There’s a high probability of normal rainfall this year,” he told EconomyNext.com after the 8th South Asian Climate Outlook Forum in Colombo. “Rainfall is likely to be better than last year.”

The forum said in a consensus forecast that “above-normal rainfall is most likely during the 2016 southwest monsoon season (June – September) over much of South Asia.”

A statement said that above-normal rainfall is most likely over broad areas of central and western South Asia and below-normal rainfall is most likely over eastern parts of the region and the southeastern part of the Indian peninsula.

Normal rainfall is most likely over the remaining areas.
 
Last year, the forum predicted below normal rain in the south-west monsoon.
(Colombo/April 27 2016)

7 Re: Rain, Rain Come Again! on Thu Apr 28, 2016 10:33 pm

Chinwi

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VALUEPICK wrote:

Normal rainfall for Sri Lanka in south-west monsoon this yea







http://www.economynext.com/Normal_rainfall_for_Sri_Lanka_in_south_west_monsoon_this_year-3-4829-13.html


ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka is likely to get normal rainfall in this year’s south-west monsoon, after below normal rainfall in 2015, S. R. Jayasekera, director of the Meteorology Department said. 

“There’s a high probability of normal rainfall this year,” he told EconomyNext.com after the 8th South Asian Climate Outlook Forum in Colombo. “Rainfall is likely to be better than last year.”

The forum said in a consensus forecast that “above-normal rainfall is most likely during the 2016 southwest monsoon season (June – September) over much of South Asia.”

A statement said that above-normal rainfall is most likely over broad areas of central and western South Asia and below-normal rainfall is most likely over eastern parts of the region and the southeastern part of the Indian peninsula.

Normal rainfall is most likely over the remaining areas.
 
Last year, the forum predicted below normal rain in the south-west monsoon.
(Colombo/April 27 2016)

That means HOLD and collect at dips for hydropower shares .  

8 Re: Rain, Rain Come Again! on Fri Apr 29, 2016 12:02 pm

VALUEPICK

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Chinwi wrote:
VALUEPICK wrote:

Normal rainfall for Sri Lanka in south-west monsoon this yea







http://www.economynext.com/Normal_rainfall_for_Sri_Lanka_in_south_west_monsoon_this_year-3-4829-13.html


ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka is likely to get normal rainfall in this year’s south-west monsoon, after below normal rainfall in 2015, S. R. Jayasekera, director of the Meteorology Department said. 

“There’s a high probability of normal rainfall this year,” he told EconomyNext.com after the 8th South Asian Climate Outlook Forum in Colombo. “Rainfall is likely to be better than last year.”

The forum said in a consensus forecast that “above-normal rainfall is most likely during the 2016 southwest monsoon season (June – September) over much of South Asia.”

A statement said that above-normal rainfall is most likely over broad areas of central and western South Asia and below-normal rainfall is most likely over eastern parts of the region and the southeastern part of the Indian peninsula.

Normal rainfall is most likely over the remaining areas.
 
Last year, the forum predicted below normal rain in the south-west monsoon.
(Colombo/April 27 2016)

That means HOLD and collect at dips for hydropower shares .  


Which one we can consider as an emerging company in the group? Thanks.

9 Re: Rain, Rain Come Again! on Fri Apr 29, 2016 12:05 pm

troy

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HPWR is my pick.... lot to expect

10 Re: Rain, Rain Come Again! on Fri Apr 29, 2016 11:35 pm

Chinwi

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I mentioned about HPWR in my post but deleted later because I am holding some qty.

I tried to buy LVEN but no one is selling below 40/-

HPWR and VPEL got best PER. , But VPEL and VLL are suffering from low book value problem..

Price to Book val wise, best are LVEN and HPFL.

11 Re: Rain, Rain Come Again! on Sat Apr 30, 2016 1:28 am

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Thank you Chinwi and Troy  for the information.
 
LVEN was one of my top holdings along with CINS those days. I didn’t see analysts covering those stocks much those days. It is wise to keep some stocks for the long run if we want to get some benefit without applying cut losses strategy. In a portfolio, we should keep some steady stocks as well. I am also in the same boat. I was looking for some LVEN. I have kept some stocks under my radar. At the moment HPWR is strong.

12 Re: Rain, Rain Come Again! on Sat Apr 30, 2016 8:31 am

Chinwi

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Yes.. LVEN was giving nice return those days. Now they have converted it mainly to a hydropower holding  and got some thermal power in Bangladesh.

Someone asked me why give negative responses to stocks some others talk while not giving my recommendations.

Normally I talk to share my thinking when I select and start collecting at good prices targeting over 40% within 2 years time.

I usually refrain if I have already collected a share in quantities. Evading - promotion .  Natural appreciation of a share is expected by medium - long term investors.

At the moment I am watching HPWR  (not buying in numbers because filled my 20% pf PF limit) LVEN and VONE.

LVEN should be in very strong position in future. No one is selling at low rates is the problem !. New plants are added to the system.

I didn’t see analysts covering those stocks much those days.
Instant noodles people do not even know about these shares. Most of  the real investors who  contributed to these forums have gone off the air.

* 20% PF limit - is a self imposed rule preventing a particular share   exceeding 20% of the portfolio even it looks like a real gem.

This has given me big opportunity losses and also prevented devastating my portfolio in different times. Very rarely I breached this barrier. Eg. collecting and holding CFVF  when interest rates were going down in big numbers.

----

For the below, I took last 9 months earning only. (MAR - DEC 2015)
To get a good idea about HP we have to see patterns covering many years.


                                    (sorry :  decimal places not properly shown in Prices) . PER - 9 months

In both tables the lower is better.

Interestingly, we can see HPFL and VPEL share two extreme positions in two analysis.  In future I think HPFL will come to a better position if we get better rainfall. As VPEL is already getting Lakshapana retention, the effect of more rainfall will be lesser than to HPFL.  

If we consider both tables together, we can see HPWR and LVEN are the two shares placed at best positions .

PAP and VLL are at higher levels.

Note : These values may change with the future earnings.

13 Re: Rain, Rain Come Again! on Sat Apr 30, 2016 10:16 am

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Thank you for valuable ideas.
 
“Note : These values may change with the future earnings.”
 
This is one of the areas that I will pay attention more.
 
CFVF was another stock which I had in the past. It has become more than 20 bagger after 10 years. (Actually, it became a more than 45 bagger as well) Look like it is wise to keep at least some quantity for the long run if we can find out quality stocks having long term potential.

14 Re: Rain, Rain Come Again! on Fri May 06, 2016 2:59 pm

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According to Department of meteorology, showers or thundershowers will occur at several places after 2.00 pm. Fairly heavy rain (above 75mm) are also likely at some places particularly in the Central, Sabaragamuwa and Uva Provinces.

15 Re: Rain, Rain Come Again! on Mon May 09, 2016 2:50 pm

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Showers or thundershowers will occur over most provinces.
 
Heavy falls (above 100 mm) can be expected at some places.
 
Maximum rain reported during last 24 hours
Max. Rainfall    117.6 mm


 Galoolla (Badulla)

16 Re: Rain, Rain Come Again! on Sun May 15, 2016 8:00 am

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Quoted from the following link.

“Lightning is a major feature of the inter-monsoon season, the Meteorology Department’s Director (Forecasts), Sarath Premalal said.

Lightning killed one person and injured 12 others in Medirigirya, Polonnaruwa this week, Disaster Management Centre (DMC) Deputy Director Pradeep Kodipilli said. At least 14 people were injured by lightning in Yatiyanthota in Kegalle.Rainfall ranged from 100mm to more than 3000mm with the biggest falls in Ginigathhena (3,267mm), Watawala (3252mm) and Norton (3121mm), the Meteorology Department said.”


http://www.sundaytimes.lk/160515/news/lightning-alert-as-inter-monsoon-season-starts-194049.html
 
Lightning alert as inter-monsoon season starts

17 Re: Rain, Rain Come Again! on Sun May 15, 2016 9:30 am

Chinwi

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Current image from Kalpana satellite shows more rain in coming days

http://www.imd.gov.in/pages/satmet_main.php?adta=3D&adtb=asiasec_ir1

Note: this image will be updated every few hrs time to show the latest

18 Re: Rain, Rain Come Again! on Sun May 15, 2016 5:45 pm

samcader


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The  hydropower  reservoirs  will  very  soon  be  full  to  capacity  yet  the  power  mafia  may  be  active  and  in  the  coming  months  start  purchasing  power  from  private  sources

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