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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Political and Socio-Economic Analysis » Market is moving along 6000 line

Market is moving along 6000 line

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1 Market is moving along 6000 line on Wed Mar 30, 2016 11:30 am


6000 seems to be the equilibrium between available negative news and positive news. Two to three days decline will be recoveredthrough another two-three days up move. You are advised to buy small quantities when market decline and book profits when it is recovered. This has become now a trading market. Target for active stocks with a reasonable price range for last two weeks and try to buy at the lower band and sell towards upper band. This strategy should be based on pure statistics now. I will try to post about some suitable stocks for this strategy.
Meanwhile you also required to identify similar stocks.

2 Re: Market is moving along 6000 line on Wed Mar 30, 2016 11:54 am


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
Thanx EC. Waiting for your posts.. Surprised Surprised

3 Re: Market is moving along 6000 line on Wed Mar 30, 2016 12:22 pm


We are seeing unusual personality in the market today.

I don’t think this a trading market. We will see active trading market when market becomes very strong. More we trade in this market more we will lose.

Some stocks have frozen. However, some frozen ones could become active once we see active market.

We need big break out in the market or break out in some stocks to get more confidence. However, there are great opportunities in the market depend on the personality and strategy that we have.

Still we are seeing some volatility in some stocks.

4 Re: Market is moving along 6000 line on Wed Mar 30, 2016 12:33 pm


Ok. For example let's perform some statistical analysis on GRAN. I took the date range from 14th March to 29th March. During the beriod the price range was 65.90 - 74.00. The average can be simply work out as 70. So simply anything below 70 comes close towards buy and above 70 comes close towards sell. If we have pations we could watch whether the stock falls towards the lower range which is 65.90 and if it does we can assume it is low risk given the market has stabilised and remember the stock to come this level market has to decline. And then we have to watch whether the stock moves to its higher band say towards 74 and if does we have to book profits. And if the stock should reach that level market has to move up. Its simple statistics guys.
Now if you put this statistical analysis into our trading stratergy the stock has fallen to 66 level two days back and now recovered to 69.40 so now we have an idea that it is coming close to the mid price of the range which is 70. And if the stock moves beyond that level then we have reasonable profit, isn't it . Assume if the price moves to 72 then you have a gain of 9%.

Isn't it worth during the current market context. You can think.

5 Re: Market is moving along 6000 line on Wed Mar 30, 2016 12:49 pm

Ok One

Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
I love you I love you I love you

6 Re: Market is moving along 6000 line on Wed Mar 30, 2016 1:38 pm


Also another factor you should consider is the beta factor. Foy you to succeed in this strategy you should select stocks with a beta value of more than 1 to ASPI. Because those shares will go down at a higher percentage than market when market goeas down and also improve at a higher percentage when market recovers. GRAN has a beta of more than 2.

For instance if we consider TJL their price range was 31.50 and 29.60 between 14th March and 29th March so the average price was 30.60.SO if you buy this below 30 you have a higher chance to sell above 31. This stock has come down twice below 30 and traded above 31 , 5 days. It is very very liquid too. You have the opportunity to realize 5% profit in very short term basis if you trade within this band. Its beta is also more than 1.

Sudgest you to do the same analysis on stocks such as LHCL, SFL,ALUF,HEXP,TAFL, etc. You should be able to make profits from them if you do your home work properly.

7 Re: Market is moving along 6000 line on Wed Mar 30, 2016 4:49 pm


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Tomorrow  is  crucial
 1. SEC Chief  is  expected  to  make  a  statement  on  the  state  of  the  market
2.  There  may  be  window  dressing  to coincide  with  the  31st march  financials.

8 Re: Market is moving along 6000 line on Wed Mar 30, 2016 10:34 pm


Month of April is going go be very crucial for the CSE. If Market pass 6500 then we can have more confidence.

9 Re: Market is moving along 6000 line on Thu Mar 31, 2016 1:09 pm


I have just spoken on TJL a share wich is actively trading within a narrow price band for some time now. Today very strong on 31.80. These are the shares you should look at when the markets falling rather than blaming others nonchantedly. I am smelling reasonable profits everywhere but still we are blaming at others than adjusting ourselves. phew...

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