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Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

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Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by EquityChamp on Tue May 03, 2016 8:09 am

Principle business activities
Selling of poultry feed & other animal feed, importing & selling of poultry equipment and related drugs, operating of poultry breeder farms, raising grandparent & parent stock, hatching & selling of day old chicks, operation of commercial farms & poultry processing.



Current business affairs
The company performed brilliantly during the year 2015 recording a revenue growth of 19% with a profit attributable to equity holders of Rs 943mn which was the highest in its 30 year history. The revenue performance were heavily influenced by the prevailing strong demand for the poultry related products in the country being the cheapest source of protein



Future outlook
The current demand for the poultry related products seems to be continuing for the next FY ahead while the production drops in nearby countries including India will create opportunities for export income if the company can increase the capacity.



Financial analysis
The stock's ROE has improved drastically but the PER has came down significantly compared to FY 2014. Though the stock's value gap is negative at CMP, it is evident that the share has more room for expansion. More importantly the company now become a more cash rich company as highlighted by the increasing positive gap between EPS & OFCPS



































 20142015
PAT attributable to equity holders80943
Equity28523794
EPS1.315.7
OCFPS1.846.8
PER          30.8            5.2
ROE2.8%28.4%
ROME3.3%19.2%
Value gap0.4%-9.2%
However it has been evident that the company's 2nd largest shareholder, Japfa LTD, is currently in the process of shedding their quantities in the market. They originally held 6mn shares and it has been estimated a further 4.2mn shares remain to shed as at 30th April 2016. Therefore this will create a stagnant effect on GRAN stock price movement and will require some time if the share to reach its true value.
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by worthiness on Tue May 03, 2016 11:26 am

Out of common key performance indicators some schools of thought prioritize the values otherwise weighing inherent drawbacks. The strength of net operating cash flows indicates the ability to expand the future growth of business/diversification avoiding added financial obligations. ROE places the long term confidentiality of stakeholders subject to the computing adjustments required. Complexities related to the drivers being used in arriving market value & economic profit of a business imbalance the expectations of buyer & seller. Apart from, certain strategies used for value gap analysis create different dimensions between business parties to reach the valuation.

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by worthiness on Tue May 03, 2016 12:23 pm

Those who entered to poultry sector three months before are well benefited by now. Despite many comments about price appreciation before, poultry sector (BFL,TAFL,GRAN) is still marching ahead facing occasional hiccups. 
Any approximate price of these three counters by end of May?

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by EquityChamp on Tue May 03, 2016 12:42 pm

That is a tough question to answer brother. Especially with GRAN. Because the share is facing the hurdle of selling around 80-82 level. What I can see is GRAN will trading around 80-84 till the selling is over while TAFL to reach 135-140 level by the end of month with proper support from ASPI and the quarterly statement to be released shortly.
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by EquityChamp on Thu May 05, 2016 6:48 pm

How the picture going to change with the just released Q1 16 result. The below is my forecast for 2016 FY.
Rs Mn2015Q1 162016 F
Rev         13,741          3,663          15,113
PAT           1,179             421            1,511
PAT for equity holders               943             332            1,209
EPS15.75.520.2

ROE has improved to 34% in Q1. Just amazing.

And @ the CMP of 80/- the forward PE is 4x.

With these numbers I can see the current seller Japfa Ltd as an idiot. Anyway they have given the fundamental and value seekers a great opportunity to earn more than 100% profit in medium term. If I were having 400mn tomorrow I will call these fellows and take this block. What a pathetic scenario is this.
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by worthiness on Thu May 05, 2016 7:24 pm

There may be a special reason unknown why Japfa want to dispose their shareholdings of growth oriented industry. ROE over 30% is fantastic unless one-off revenue is included.

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by chamil1 on Thu May 05, 2016 8:44 pm

Let's hope this gets cleared fast. Massively undervalued at the moment.


@EquityChamp wrote:How the picture going to change with the just released Q1 16 result. The below is my forecast for 2016 FY.
 
Rs Mn2015Q1 162016 F
Rev         13,741          3,663          15,113
PAT           1,179             421            1,511
PAT for equity holders               943             332            1,209
EPS15.75.520.2

ROE has improved to 34% in Q1. Just amazing.

And @ the CMP of 80/- the forward PE is 4x.

With these numbers I can see the current seller Japfa Ltd as an idiot. Anyway they have given the fundamental and value seekers a great opportunity to earn more than 100% profit in medium term. If I were having 400mn tomorrow I will call these fellows and take this block. What a pathetic scenario is this.

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by Learner19 on Thu May 05, 2016 8:49 pm

@worthiness wrote:There may be a special reason unknown why Japfa want to dispose their shareholdings of growth oriented industry. ROE over 30% is fantastic unless one-off revenue is included.
Japfa has disposed its quantity of nearly 1 million TAFL already. Its a decision taken by them to quit both irrespective of company performance. So there is a great opportunity in both.

Consistent performance by TAFL with annualized EPS of Rs. 34. If we could have PER of 10, then the share price must be Rs. 340 which at some point this will reach mid term. Its now trading at PER of less than 4 which makes it grossly undervalued. Should be at least Rs. 210 if it were to trade at PER of just 6. Long way to go for this counter. 

TAFL has completely settled the loan obtained from mother company GRAN to the tune of 1.5 billion rupees. Now its a debt free company with a very bright future ahead. 

GRAN of course has improved much better with cash in hand of more than 1 billion rupees. Their annualized EPS comes around Rs. 22. So the share price should be around Rs. 132 for a PER of just 6. This is also a debt free company with excellent outlook.

I have shares in both these companies and am happy to keep.

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by Jaya sri on Thu May 05, 2016 10:38 pm

@Learner19 wrote:
@worthiness wrote:There may be a special reason unknown why Japfa want to dispose their shareholdings of growth oriented industry. ROE over 30% is fantastic unless one-off revenue is included.
Japfa has disposed its quantity of nearly 1 million TAFL already. Its a decision taken by them to quit both irrespective of company performance. So there is a great opportunity in both.

Consistent performance by TAFL with annualized EPS of Rs. 34. If we could have PER of 10, then the share price must be Rs. 340 which at some point this will reach mid term. Its now trading at PER of less than 4 which makes it grossly undervalued. Should be at least Rs. 210 if it were to trade at PER of just 6. Long way to go for this counter. 

TAFL has completely settled the loan obtained from mother company GRAN to the tune of 1.5 billion rupees. Now its a debt free company with a very bright future ahead. 

GRAN of course has improved much better with cash in hand of more than 1 billion rupees. Their annualized EPS comes around Rs. 22. So the share price should be around Rs. 132 for a PER of just 6. This is also a debt free company with excellent outlook.

I have shares in both these companies and am happy to keep.
GRAN  80 nod bad is it

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by EPS on Fri May 06, 2016 6:49 am

Gran ispromissing 50% plus return 2016...
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by Harry82 on Fri May 06, 2016 6:57 am

most of the companies are trading low PER 

LFIN - PER 4.5
CDB - PER 5
PABC - PER6

there4 Gran 80.00 is not bad price.
Cant expect lot
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by Chinwi on Fri May 06, 2016 7:54 am

For JAPFA, selling GRAN @ 80 or 120 makes no much difference.


Their Asset value is 2,300 million US$
Their current assets in GRAN is 2.1 million US$

Since their holding in GRAN is below 0.1% of their total assets I think it makes a burden than a wealth for them to maintain it in their books.


If they sell GRAN @ 80 /- they get 2.5 million US$
If they sell GRAN @ 120/- they get 3.7 million US$

Their after tax profit for first qtr 2016 only was 37.1 million US $

---
Now, their intention is no secret , selling at higher prices is not probable for them. This makes a good opportunity to collect it with the cash flow of small inverters in coming months.
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by EquityChamp on Fri May 06, 2016 8:03 am

@ Chinwi, Exactly my point. That's why I wrote if I had 400mn I will call this fellows and buy it.
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by Chinwi on Fri May 06, 2016 8:18 am

@Harry82 wrote:most of the companies are trading low PER 

LFIN - PER 4.5
CDB - PER 5
PABC - PER6

there4 Gran 80.00 is not bad price.
Cant expect lot

accepted. above is the situation these days.

1980-90 ගණන් වල ලංකාවෙ සමාගම් වල PER එක 6 තිබිල 20 ටත් එහා නැග්ග​. නැවත ආර්ථික ව්‍යාකූලත්වය මත 6 ට බැස්ස​. නැවත මට මතක විදියට වසර 2 එජාප කාලයේ සටන් නැවැත්වීමේ ගිවිසුමෙන් පසුව උදාවූ කාලයේ PER ඉහල ගියා. නැවත සටන් උත්සන්න වීමත් සමග හා ලෝක අර්ථික අවපාතය හමුවේ 6 ටත් පහලට වැටුනා. 2009 න් පස්සෙ රටේ ඇතිවූ පිබිදීමත් සමග 20 පන්නල ගියා​. නැවත දැන් 6 ටත් පහලට අඩු වෙලා තියෙනව​.
නැවත කවදා හෝ 20 ට එහා යයි.
ඒකට යලිත් ආර්ථිකය මේ මට්ටමේ නැතුව ස්ථාවර පැහැදිලි අනාගතයක් පේන්න තියෙන තත්වයට එන්න ඕන​.


එතකල් 6 ට අඩු ස්ථාවර ව්‍යාපාර වල කොටස් කෙමෙන් එකතු කර ගත්තට කමක් නෑ. නමුත් විකුණන දිනය කියන්න බෑ. සමහර විට හිතුවට වඩා කාලයක් අල්ලගෙන ඉන්න වෙයි.
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by Brinthan on Fri May 06, 2016 7:56 pm

Too much of selling preasure between 82-85 range...Thats why i think gran not moving as we expect...
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by cseguide on Fri May 06, 2016 8:40 pm

@Chinwi wrote:
@Harry82 wrote:most of the companies are trading low PER 

LFIN - PER 4.5
CDB - PER 5
PABC - PER6

there4 Gran 80.00 is not bad price.
Cant expect lot

accepted. above is the situation these days.

1980-90 ගණන් වල ලංකාවෙ සමාගම් වල PER එක 6 තිබිල 20 ටත් එහා නැග්ග​. නැවත ආර්ථික ව්‍යාකූලත්වය මත 6 ට බැස්ස​. නැවත මට මතක විදියට වසර 2 එජාප කාලයේ සටන් නැවැත්වීමේ ගිවිසුමෙන් පසුව උදාවූ කාලයේ PER ඉහල ගියා. නැවත සටන් උත්සන්න වීමත් සමග හා ලෝක අර්ථික අවපාතය හමුවේ  6 ටත් පහලට වැටුනා. 2009 න් පස්සෙ රටේ ඇතිවූ පිබිදීමත් සමග 20 පන්නල ගියා​. නැවත දැන් 6 ටත් පහලට අඩු වෙලා තියෙනව​.
නැවත කවදා හෝ 20 ට එහා යයි.
ඒකට යලිත් ආර්ථිකය මේ මට්ටමේ නැතුව ස්ථාවර පැහැදිලි අනාගතයක් පේන්න තියෙන තත්වයට එන්න ඕන​.


එතකල් 6 ට අඩු ස්ථාවර ව්‍යාපාර වල කොටස් කෙමෙන් එකතු කර ගත්තට කමක් නෑ. නමුත් විකුණන දිනය කියන්න බෑ. සමහර විට හිතුවට වඩා කාලයක් අල්ලගෙන ඉන්න වෙයි.
ඔය කියන්ඩ හදනෙ අය MR එනකම් MARKET නගිනේ නැ කියලා නේද ?  මේවා අහලා දැන් නම් ඇති වෙලා තියනේ .කොහෙන් ගියත් ඔතෙන්ද තමා CHINWI එනේ . NEGATIVE වෙනද එපා . මේ ආන්ඩුවට  කාලයක් දීල  බලමු
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by karuna on Fri May 06, 2016 8:54 pm

@Brinthan wrote:Too much of selling preasure between 82-85 range...Thats why i think gran not moving as we expect...

I wish to u gran will 90 very soon . 

If some share going for maga profit financial report 
Then why people selling ? For what ? 

Bfl 240 make a nice profit but huge selling came drop to 170 what s the reason 

Those types share moving with very long term technical chart . Try to understand what I saying if they post loose making report for a one quatre then  we everybody panic selling but price will increase between next 3 month more than that level.  

Sometime I am wrong coz very intelligent expert here . But if you like to c it from different types knowledge I wish u.  

Reasonably that's why I didn't like such a profit making company coz some shares have a one ^or two quater good profit next quarter loose like that type stokes is my favourite . Thing is technical support for move up  share . So sorry I posted like this because this is just a my small knowledge 
So understand everything not like same different knowledge different people in the world

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by nimantha80 on Fri May 06, 2016 8:58 pm

tafl 100 to 126.Gran stuck at 80.Just rotate GRAN people.This is simple logic.

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by Brinthan on Fri May 06, 2016 9:11 pm

@karuna wrote:
@Brinthan wrote:Too much of selling preasure between 82-85 range...Thats why i think gran not moving as we expect...

I wish to u gran will 90 very soon . 

If some share going for maga profit financial report 
Then why people selling ? For what ? 

Bfl 240 make a nice profit but huge selling came drop to 170 what s the reason 

Those types share moving with very long term technical chart . Try to understand what I saying if they post loose making report for a one quatre then  we everybody panic selling but price will increase between next 3 month more than that level.  

Sometime I am wrong coz very intelligent expert here . But if you like to c it from different types knowledge I wish u.  

Reasonably that's why I didn't like such a profit making company coz some shares have a one ^or two quater good profit next quarter loose like that type stokes is my favourite . Thing is technical support for move up  share . So sorry I posted like this because this is just a my small knowledge 
So understand everything not like same different knowledge different people in the world
100% i agree with u karuna...We can earn more profit two quarter good profit and next quarter loose companies..But it will happen some extend.. and its too risky...
more risk more gain....
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by karuna on Fri May 06, 2016 9:51 pm

@Brinthan wrote:
@karuna wrote:
@Brinthan wrote:Too much of selling preasure between 82-85 range...Thats why i think gran not moving as we expect...

I wish to u gran will 90 very soon . 

If some share going for maga profit financial report 
Then why people selling ? For what ? 

Bfl 240 make a nice profit but huge selling came drop to 170 what s the reason 

Those types share moving with very long term technical chart . Try to understand what I saying if they post loose making report for a one quatre then  we everybody panic selling but price will increase between next 3 month more than that level.  

Sometime I am wrong coz very intelligent expert here . But if you like to c it from different types knowledge I wish u.  

Reasonably that's why I didn't like such a profit making company coz some shares have a one ^or two quater good profit next quarter loose like that type stokes is my favourite . Thing is technical support for move up  share . So sorry I posted like this because this is just a my small knowledge 
So understand everything not like same different knowledge different people in the world
100% i agree with u karuna...We can earn more profit two quarter good profit and next quarter loose companies..But it will happen some extend.. and its too risky...
more risk more gain....

Chicken family firstly introduce Mr.  Teller gran 38 tafl 56 from last year as well he sold perfect time gran 115:tafl 150 maybe 
Bli also he introduce 32 now 120 +  
Anyway everybody have little week point  but we like share our knowledge with others for intelligent investment . However Mr teller is very important jem to us . Please don't cat fight against shares for do day trading

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by Chinwi on Fri May 06, 2016 10:32 pm

@cseguide wrote:
ඔය කියන්ඩ හදනෙ අය MR එනකම් MARKET නගිනේ නැ කියලා නේද ?  මේවා අහලා දැන් නම් ඇති වෙලා තියනේ .කොහෙන් ගියත් ඔතෙන්ද තමා CHINWI එනේ . NEGATIVE වෙනද එපා . මේ ආන්ඩුවට  කාලයක් දීල  බලමු

රටේ මිනිස්සුන්ට නම් මේ මොළේ කළඳක් නැති ගොන් පාලකයො කරන ගොන් වැඩ නිසා වැනසුන රට බලල ඇති වෙල තියෙන්නෙ. ආපු දා ඉඳල කරපු මුදල් විනාශයට අද වන් දි ගෙවන්න වෙලා තියෙන්නෙ මහජනතාවට​. තාමත් තේරෙන්නෙ නැද්ද මේ කිසිම වැඩක් බැරි නිකම්මු රංචුවක් කියල​.
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by chamil1 on Sat May 07, 2016 12:03 am




@Chinwi wrote:
@cseguide wrote:
ඔය කියන්ඩ හදනෙ අය MR එනකම් MARKET නගිනේ නැ කියලා නේද ?  මේවා අහලා දැන් නම් ඇති වෙලා තියනේ .කොහෙන් ගියත් ඔතෙන්ද තමා CHINWI එනේ . NEGATIVE වෙනද එපා . මේ ආන්ඩුවට  කාලයක් දීල  බලමු

රටේ මිනිස්සුන්ට නම් මේ මොළේ කළඳක් නැති ගොන් පාලකයො කරන ගොන් වැඩ නිසා වැනසුන රට බලල ඇති වෙල තියෙන්නෙ. ආපු දා ඉඳල කරපු මුදල් විනාශයට අද වන් දි ගෙවන්න වෙලා තියෙන්නෙ මහජනතාවට​. තාමත් තේරෙන්නෙ නැද්ද මේ කිසිම වැඩක් බැරි නිකම්මු රංචුවක් කියල​.

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by VALUEPICK on Sat May 07, 2016 5:09 am

Jafa is one of the top players in the meat and dairy products related industry in the South East Asia .Singapore market didn’t do well lately. But their listed shares are outperforming the market. They have business interests in Asian countries such Indonesia, China, India, Myanmar, and Vietnam etc. They had some trouble in some areas before 2014 and there were some significant improvements in thier trouble areas in  2015.  

  • The poultry-related industry in Indonesia is benefiting due to  new market development  
  • The company had managed to counter low milk prices in China with improvement in milk yields and sales volumes.
  • The Vietnam swine business turned profitable in 2015. 

It has been in business for over 40 years and is currently one of the largest poultry producers in Indonesia. The company is also a leading dairy products company in China. JAFA might like if they can get control interest in GRAN. I don’t think PRIMA will like it.

They may have their own business strategies. We have to stay with our own known strategy.
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by EquityChamp on Wed May 11, 2016 8:23 am

GRAN had BUY signals in all daily, weekly and monthly technical charts but its Bull/Bear Power(13) is getting diminished in daily charts to 1.0. The hourly charts have negative values for Bull/Bear Power indicator. This shows the signs of reversing the trend for GRAN from technical BUY to technical SELL. So be think twice if you are planning to enter now.
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by Brinthan on Fri May 13, 2016 7:03 pm

Strong sell signal from technical indicators...My Avg cost around Rs.81.5/- .....The selling preasure is still continues..
EC Sir What can i do for this present situation...Can i hold this or sell with lessor profit ...?
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