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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

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1 Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Tue May 03, 2016 8:09 am

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
First topic message reminder :

Principle business activities
Selling of poultry feed & other animal feed, importing & selling of poultry equipment and related drugs, operating of poultry breeder farms, raising grandparent & parent stock, hatching & selling of day old chicks, operation of commercial farms & poultry processing.



Current business affairs
The company performed brilliantly during the year 2015 recording a revenue growth of 19% with a profit attributable to equity holders of Rs 943mn which was the highest in its 30 year history. The revenue performance were heavily influenced by the prevailing strong demand for the poultry related products in the country being the cheapest source of protein



Future outlook
The current demand for the poultry related products seems to be continuing for the next FY ahead while the production drops in nearby countries including India will create opportunities for export income if the company can increase the capacity.



Financial analysis
The stock's ROE has improved drastically but the PER has came down significantly compared to FY 2014. Though the stock's value gap is negative at CMP, it is evident that the share has more room for expansion. More importantly the company now become a more cash rich company as highlighted by the increasing positive gap between EPS & OFCPS



































 20142015
PAT attributable to equity holders80943
Equity28523794
EPS1.315.7
OCFPS1.846.8
PER          30.8            5.2
ROE2.8%28.4%
ROME3.3%19.2%
Value gap0.4%-9.2%
However it has been evident that the company's 2nd largest shareholder, Japfa LTD, is currently in the process of shedding their quantities in the market. They originally held 6mn shares and it has been estimated a further 4.2mn shares remain to shed as at 30th April 2016. Therefore this will create a stagnant effect on GRAN stock price movement and will require some time if the share to reach its true value.


101 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Mon Oct 03, 2016 8:30 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Brinthan wrote:Strong sell signal from technical indicators...My Avg cost around Rs.81.5/- .....The selling preasure is still continues..
EC Sir What can i do for this present situation...Can i hold this or sell with lessor profit ...?


Hold it. very soon 120 level. if you want get profit get it.

102 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Mon Oct 03, 2016 8:44 pm

Brinthan


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@stockback wrote:
@Brinthan wrote:Strong sell signal from technical indicators...My Avg cost around Rs.81.5/- .....The selling preasure is still continues..
EC Sir What can i do for this present situation...Can i hold this or sell with lessor profit ...?


Hold it. very soon 120 level. if you want get profit get it.
This is my old post..However i hold GRAN with Avg cost of 81.5/- ...My minimum expectation is 115/- with in this year...Anyway thanks Mr.stockback..

103 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Mon Oct 03, 2016 9:42 pm

EquityChamp


Moderator
Very good Brinthan. Happy to see at least some guys are believing on value base investment in a market where 99% are buying when a stock starts a run.

104 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:08 pm

EquityChamp


Moderator
Charts becoming bullish and the buy signals appeared seems high in reliability. RSIs have gone above upper range of neutral. if we compare the RSI movement with chart trend I think more chances are for a reasonable price appreciation in short term.

105 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Tue Oct 04, 2016 7:18 am

pfxavier


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
EC, I guess its EPS around 5.3 for this quarter.

106 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Thu Oct 06, 2016 10:08 am

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
I am publishing the trading statistics for the last one month post the conclusion of Japfa deals. Here you have the daily statistics.
DatePriceOpenHighLowVolumeChange
Oct 05, 2016  97.30   98.00   98.20   96.60      72,310 -0.71%
Oct 04, 2016  98.00   97.90   98.40   97.00   329,960 0.10%
Oct 03, 2016  97.90   97.00   98.00   96.30   158,320 1.45%
Sep 30, 2016  96.50   95.10   97.40   95.10   268,900 0.52%
Sep 29, 2016  96.00   96.00   96.50   95.00      85,750 0.10%
Sep 28, 2016  95.90   96.50   97.00   95.50   128,060 -0.10%
Sep 27, 2016  96.00   96.50   97.50   95.50   133,410 0.00%
Sep 26, 2016  96.00   95.00   96.50   94.50   270,040 1.05%
Sep 23, 2016  95.00   93.00   96.00   92.00   270,110 1.50%
Sep 22, 2016  93.60   92.40   95.00   92.40   472,930 1.30%
Sep 21, 2016  92.40   92.50   92.50   90.00   133,910 1.54%
Sep 20, 2016  91.00   91.40   92.30   90.80      34,690 0.00%
Sep 19, 2016  91.00   91.20   93.00   90.50   137,820 -1.83%
Sep 15, 2016  92.70   94.00   94.00   92.00      67,970 -0.32%
Sep 14, 2016  93.00   92.30   93.90   92.00      60,230 -1.06%
Sep 13, 2016  94.00   94.40   94.40   92.40      64,130 -0.42%
Sep 09, 2016  94.40   93.40   94.50   92.80      88,070 0.96%
Sep 08, 2016  93.50   95.00   95.20   93.40   157,790 -0.64%
Sep 07, 2016  94.10   93.00   95.30   93.00   278,670 1.18%
Sep 06, 2016  93.00   93.10   94.80   91.80   299,350 0.22%
The summary is as follows.
Highest: 98.40
Lowest: 90.00
Difference: 8.40
Average: 94.57
Change %: 4.85
Total volume traded was over 3.5Mn shares between the price range of 90 and 98.40. What do you people think of these statistics. Is it normal trading or the person/group get holds with Japfa quantities are still collecting? if it is collecting then how much of free float is remaining in the market by now? How long this will be traded within the price band of 90-100. Think some really interesting questions to answer, isn't it?

107 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Fri Oct 07, 2016 8:08 am

sameboy

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
TAFL  tibba ganatama giya, eth BFL & GRAN yanne nene, BFL 195 n udata yanneth ne, 189n aduwata gannath be.ekko aduwenna one, neththan wedi wenna one.

108 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Fri Oct 07, 2016 12:39 pm

shadow walker

avatar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@EquityChamp wrote:I am publishing the trading statistics for the last one month post the conclusion of Japfa deals. Here you have the daily statistics.
 
DatePriceOpenHighLowVolumeChange
Oct 05, 2016  97.30   98.00   98.20   96.60      72,310 -0.71%
Oct 04, 2016  98.00   97.90   98.40   97.00   329,960 0.10%
Oct 03, 2016  97.90   97.00   98.00   96.30   158,320 1.45%
Sep 30, 2016  96.50   95.10   97.40   95.10   268,900 0.52%
Sep 29, 2016  96.00   96.00   96.50   95.00      85,750 0.10%
Sep 28, 2016  95.90   96.50   97.00   95.50   128,060 -0.10%
Sep 27, 2016  96.00   96.50   97.50   95.50   133,410 0.00%
Sep 26, 2016  96.00   95.00   96.50   94.50   270,040 1.05%
Sep 23, 2016  95.00   93.00   96.00   92.00   270,110 1.50%
Sep 22, 2016  93.60   92.40   95.00   92.40   472,930 1.30%
Sep 21, 2016  92.40   92.50   92.50   90.00   133,910 1.54%
Sep 20, 2016  91.00   91.40   92.30   90.80      34,690 0.00%
Sep 19, 2016  91.00   91.20   93.00   90.50   137,820 -1.83%
Sep 15, 2016  92.70   94.00   94.00   92.00      67,970 -0.32%
Sep 14, 2016  93.00   92.30   93.90   92.00      60,230 -1.06%
Sep 13, 2016  94.00   94.40   94.40   92.40      64,130 -0.42%
Sep 09, 2016  94.40   93.40   94.50   92.80      88,070 0.96%
Sep 08, 2016  93.50   95.00   95.20   93.40   157,790 -0.64%
Sep 07, 2016  94.10   93.00   95.30   93.00   278,670 1.18%
Sep 06, 2016  93.00   93.10   94.80   91.80   299,350 0.22%
The summary is as follows.
Highest: 98.40
Lowest: 90.00
Difference: 8.40
Average: 94.57
Change %: 4.85
Total volume traded was over 3.5Mn shares between the price range of 90 and 98.40. What do you people think of these statistics. Is it normal trading or the person/group get holds with Japfa quantities are still collecting? if it is collecting then how much of free float is remaining in the market by now? How long this will be traded within the price band of 90-100. Think some really interesting questions to answer, isn't it?

just check... again its going down..
http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/corn.aspx?timeframe=1y

 GRAN future will be good.. zero loans, 2B cash balance, lower corn price... what else investors need.. what to do sri lankan pandiths dont know about investments...

109 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Mon Oct 17, 2016 1:59 pm

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
Keep your eyes open. There should be a golden investment opportunity if GRAN come below 90/-. Get ready to buy even small quantities.

110 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Mon Oct 17, 2016 2:11 pm

kassachandimal


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
EC what did u buy this week in this bloody market ?

111 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Mon Oct 17, 2016 3:00 pm

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy  You know my game. I m gonna to catch wounded soldiers and make them stronger in the future.

112 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Mon Oct 17, 2016 3:47 pm

kassachandimal


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Can you name some please

113 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Mon Oct 17, 2016 3:50 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@kassachandimal wrote:Can you name some please


he is talking about GRAN in this thread.  

to me GRAN is wounded soldiers of STF/SF

114 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Mon Oct 17, 2016 3:56 pm

Gallardo


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

 by EquityChamp Today at 1:59 pm

Keep your eyes open. There should be a golden investment opportunity if GRAN come below 90/-. Get ready to buy even small quantities.

I agree, one of the best investment opportunities at these prices.  Few are this SML positive.

115 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Tue Oct 18, 2016 11:56 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
now I chenge my mind. I expect over 7.5 from GRAN ,over 10 from TAFL

any ideas.....

116 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Wed Oct 19, 2016 1:02 am

kassachandi


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Stockback BFL high profits is bcoz of their new feed mill

117 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:53 am

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
Here is a brief forecast of GRAN for the next two quarters.

PAT for owners Q1 - Rs332Mn
PAT for owners Q2 - Rs287Mn
PAT for owners Q3 - Rs350Mn
PAT for owners Q4 - Rs485Mn

Forecasted EPS for 2016FY Rs24.2

PE ratio at the price of Rs 92 - 3.8x

Q3 report is expecting by this Friday. Lets see what are the actual performances.

Thanks

118 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:47 am

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
This one is available @ 90 now. Should be a Christmas gift by Trump. Very Happy

119 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Thu Nov 10, 2016 10:10 pm

ranga


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

120 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Thu Nov 10, 2016 10:52 pm

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator

So what do you think about my estimate of 350Mn for Q3 Vs the actual 375Mn for Q3. Haven't I told you all that these companies are the followers to follow the path of NEST & CTC.

I am proud that for some reason I can do fairly accurate estimation and I am even proud that I can share those with my friends on time. If you made use of them then I am the happiest man in this forum. Basketball

Good luck.

121 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Fri Nov 11, 2016 9:13 am

aathi


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
EquityChamp,

Thanks & appreciate your good works.

122 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Fri Nov 11, 2016 9:17 am

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@EquityChamp wrote:

So what do you think about my estimate of 350Mn for Q3 Vs the actual 375Mn for Q3. Haven't I told you all that these companies are the followers to follow the path of NEST & CTC.

I am proud that for some reason I can do fairly accurate estimation and I am even proud that I can share those with my friends on time. If you made use of them then I am the happiest man in this forum. Basketball

Good luck.


good one.

today start next chicken run...

any idea...

123 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Wed Nov 30, 2016 10:44 pm

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
A bullish pattern reversal was seen on the technical charts today. I estimate an upward move cutting across 95/- mark.

Thanks

124 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Wed Apr 26, 2017 10:30 pm

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
GRAN is another stock that didn't move with the earnings. Will the renewed market sentiment can push the share in coming weeks or months.

125 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Thu Apr 27, 2017 9:39 am

dow

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
GRAN short term target 100/-

126 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Thu Apr 27, 2017 10:01 am

Lucky Gamage

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
My god.. Blood suckers are active in the forum again,, i request from retail investors don't believe these suckers.. they may have grabbed these shares at very bottom in past few month and now giving the target price they try to unload all these to retailers heads.... Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad

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