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Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

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Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by EquityChamp on Tue May 03, 2016 8:09 am

First topic message reminder :

Principle business activities
Selling of poultry feed & other animal feed, importing & selling of poultry equipment and related drugs, operating of poultry breeder farms, raising grandparent & parent stock, hatching & selling of day old chicks, operation of commercial farms & poultry processing.



Current business affairs
The company performed brilliantly during the year 2015 recording a revenue growth of 19% with a profit attributable to equity holders of Rs 943mn which was the highest in its 30 year history. The revenue performance were heavily influenced by the prevailing strong demand for the poultry related products in the country being the cheapest source of protein



Future outlook
The current demand for the poultry related products seems to be continuing for the next FY ahead while the production drops in nearby countries including India will create opportunities for export income if the company can increase the capacity.



Financial analysis
The stock's ROE has improved drastically but the PER has came down significantly compared to FY 2014. Though the stock's value gap is negative at CMP, it is evident that the share has more room for expansion. More importantly the company now become a more cash rich company as highlighted by the increasing positive gap between EPS & OFCPS



































 20142015
PAT attributable to equity holders80943
Equity28523794
EPS1.315.7
OCFPS1.846.8
PER          30.8            5.2
ROE2.8%28.4%
ROME3.3%19.2%
Value gap0.4%-9.2%
However it has been evident that the company's 2nd largest shareholder, Japfa LTD, is currently in the process of shedding their quantities in the market. They originally held 6mn shares and it has been estimated a further 4.2mn shares remain to shed as at 30th April 2016. Therefore this will create a stagnant effect on GRAN stock price movement and will require some time if the share to reach its true value.
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by Chinwi on Fri May 06, 2016 10:32 pm

@cseguide wrote:
ඔය කියන්ඩ හදනෙ අය MR එනකම් MARKET නගිනේ නැ කියලා නේද ?  මේවා අහලා දැන් නම් ඇති වෙලා තියනේ .කොහෙන් ගියත් ඔතෙන්ද තමා CHINWI එනේ . NEGATIVE වෙනද එපා . මේ ආන්ඩුවට  කාලයක් දීල  බලමු

රටේ මිනිස්සුන්ට නම් මේ මොළේ කළඳක් නැති ගොන් පාලකයො කරන ගොන් වැඩ නිසා වැනසුන රට බලල ඇති වෙල තියෙන්නෙ. ආපු දා ඉඳල කරපු මුදල් විනාශයට අද වන් දි ගෙවන්න වෙලා තියෙන්නෙ මහජනතාවට​. තාමත් තේරෙන්නෙ නැද්ද මේ කිසිම වැඩක් බැරි නිකම්මු රංචුවක් කියල​.

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by chamil1 on Sat May 07, 2016 12:03 am




@Chinwi wrote:
@cseguide wrote:
ඔය කියන්ඩ හදනෙ අය MR එනකම් MARKET නගිනේ නැ කියලා නේද ?  මේවා අහලා දැන් නම් ඇති වෙලා තියනේ .කොහෙන් ගියත් ඔතෙන්ද තමා CHINWI එනේ . NEGATIVE වෙනද එපා . මේ ආන්ඩුවට  කාලයක් දීල  බලමු

රටේ මිනිස්සුන්ට නම් මේ මොළේ කළඳක් නැති ගොන් පාලකයො කරන ගොන් වැඩ නිසා වැනසුන රට බලල ඇති වෙල තියෙන්නෙ. ආපු දා ඉඳල කරපු මුදල් විනාශයට අද වන් දි ගෙවන්න වෙලා තියෙන්නෙ මහජනතාවට​. තාමත් තේරෙන්නෙ නැද්ද මේ කිසිම වැඩක් බැරි නිකම්මු රංචුවක් කියල​.

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by VALUEPICK on Sat May 07, 2016 5:09 am

Jafa is one of the top players in the meat and dairy products related industry in the South East Asia .Singapore market didn’t do well lately. But their listed shares are outperforming the market. They have business interests in Asian countries such Indonesia, China, India, Myanmar, and Vietnam etc. They had some trouble in some areas before 2014 and there were some significant improvements in thier trouble areas in  2015.  

  • The poultry-related industry in Indonesia is benefiting due to  new market development  
  • The company had managed to counter low milk prices in China with improvement in milk yields and sales volumes.
  • The Vietnam swine business turned profitable in 2015. 

It has been in business for over 40 years and is currently one of the largest poultry producers in Indonesia. The company is also a leading dairy products company in China. JAFA might like if they can get control interest in GRAN. I don’t think PRIMA will like it.

They may have their own business strategies. We have to stay with our own known strategy.

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by EquityChamp on Wed May 11, 2016 8:23 am

GRAN had BUY signals in all daily, weekly and monthly technical charts but its Bull/Bear Power(13) is getting diminished in daily charts to 1.0. The hourly charts have negative values for Bull/Bear Power indicator. This shows the signs of reversing the trend for GRAN from technical BUY to technical SELL. So be think twice if you are planning to enter now.

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by Brinthan on Fri May 13, 2016 7:03 pm

Strong sell signal from technical indicators...My Avg cost around Rs.81.5/- .....The selling preasure is still continues..
EC Sir What can i do for this present situation...Can i hold this or sell with lessor profit ...?

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by EquityChamp on Fri May 13, 2016 7:35 pm

As I said in my previous post the bull/bear power indicator turning into negative territory but if you have the stock no need to worry. Just hold for couple of weeks and also don't think of increasing your quantity at the moment. Just wait and see. If market turned really negative GRAN can come down to 75/70 levels then you should collect and average down. Otherwise this will be around 80/81 till that big selling is over.
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by Brinthan on Fri May 13, 2016 8:05 pm

@EquityChamp wrote:As I said in my previous post the bull/bear power indicator turning into negative territory but if you have the stock no need to worry. Just hold for couple of weeks and also don't think of increasing your quantity at the moment. Just wait and see. If market turned really negative GRAN can come down to 75/70 levels then you should collect and average down. Otherwise this will be around 80/81 till that big selling is over.
Thank you ...EC Sir
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by pfxavier on Sat May 14, 2016 10:08 am

EquityChamp, Do you think how long this will stay around 80's before start to appreciate. Any guess ?

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by EquityChamp on Sat May 14, 2016 10:51 am

At the going rate GRAN can trade around 80s for another 3-4 weeks at least. In between if market witnessed a correction it can fall to 70/75 levels too but that will be a risk free buying level. When the market resumes its bull run it will again come to 80s in no time.
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by pfxavier on Sat May 14, 2016 11:05 am

Thanks EC for quick response

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by stockback on Sat May 14, 2016 2:54 pm

According to Bolinger Bands.

if Gran stay same level during next week. after next week it will be start falling.

Actually there is not much selling. all broker firms are spreading news about selling pressure. now its stuck on this level. maybe they wants to collect at cheap level.

this is artificial selling pressure. buy purposely killing buying pressure 

to invest this is good share.

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by Teller on Sat May 14, 2016 3:06 pm

In this article, ECs answers are logical and more professional.
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by chamil1 on Thu May 19, 2016 12:05 am

There is approx 3.9 million foreign selling remaining. Higher than I initially thought.


But it wouldn't stay like this forever

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by EquityChamp on Thu May 19, 2016 12:18 am

What do you think on my prediction. In one of my previous posts I said at least 4mn to be sold. Also I said due to this factor the TAFL will be 70% higher than GRAN in some point of time. What do you think about my statement.
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by chamil1 on Thu May 19, 2016 12:26 am

@EquityChamp wrote:What do you think on my prediction. In one of my previous posts I said at least 4mn to be sold. Also I said due to this factor the TAFL will be 70% higher than GRAN in some point of time. What do you think about my statement.

Very Good EC. Let's see how GRAN could be resurrected

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by Brinthan on Mon May 23, 2016 10:19 pm

EC Sir most of the members told this is the right time to exit polutry stocks like BFL,TAFL & GRAN...

AS YOU KNOW IN MY PREVIOUS POST I HAVE FAIR VALUE OF GRAN WITH AVG COST OF 81.5 ...

WHAT IS YOUR OPINION IN THE CURRENT MARKET CONDITION ???
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by EquityChamp on Tue May 24, 2016 5:26 am

@Brinthan wrote:EC Sir most of the members told this is the right time to exit polutry stocks like BFL,TAFL & GRAN...

AS YOU KNOW IN MY PREVIOUS POST I HAVE FAIR VALUE OF GRAN WITH AVG COST OF 81.5 ...

WHAT IS YOUR OPINION IN THE CURRENT MARKET CONDITION ???

My view is whoever saying that TAFL & GRAN is to be sold now is saying because they haven't moved to very high price compared to their expectation in short term. But if you look at their financials and the growth they have registered during last several quarters real investors won't sell at these levels. This is a stock with lot of intrinsic value. If you look at technical charts, daily charts indicating sell but weekly chart indicating neutral and monthly charts indicate buy. RSI's are @ 40s. The stagnation is due to willingness of the top shareholder to exit and still no institutional player look at this stock. But I strongly believe that its a matter of time that all these can turn upside down.
I am not deny the possibility than GRAN can come down to 70/75 level but which is a very good price for me to collect more.
Remember ASPI is projected to reach 7000 by September/October and with this undervalued stocks like GRAN & TAFL should reach their true values.

Thanks
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by Harry82 on Tue May 24, 2016 5:59 am

Exit from poultry
Eg: TAFL,GRAN,BF
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by nimantha80 on Fri May 27, 2016 1:22 pm

@nimantha80 wrote:tafl 100 to 126.Gran stuck at 80.Just rotate GRAN people.This is simple logic.
GRAN kattiyata dan baba hambuna neda GRAN 74.TAFL 124 still

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by Suranga malli on Mon May 30, 2016 10:02 pm

@nimantha80 wrote:
@nimantha80 wrote:tafl 100 to 126.Gran stuck at 80.Just rotate GRAN people.This is simple logic.
GRAN kattiyata dan baba hambuna neda GRAN 74.TAFL 124 still
Hambuna baba tika tika lokuwenna kalayak yanawanne...E wage Gran ekkath tika tika thamai udata yanne...
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by Vacations To Sri Lanka on Thu Jun 02, 2016 4:34 pm

@nimantha80 wrote:
@nimantha80 wrote:tafl 100 to 126.Gran stuck at 80.Just rotate GRAN people.This is simple logic.
GRAN kattiyata dan baba hambuna neda GRAN 74.TAFL 124 still

Hambuna baba onna eka parata FLY karanda gatta. dan balan inda thiyenne kochchara udata fly karnwda kiyala  Very Happy
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by Brinthan on Thu Jun 02, 2016 5:49 pm

Short term technical indicaters (5 Min,15Min,1hour )recommended to Strong buy but Daily indicaters show Neutral.So we have to wait until the strong message come from daily indicaters....


But the RSI is move to 30 to now 56 ..It is good to enter this level according to the RSI....
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by EquityChamp on Thu Jun 02, 2016 7:52 pm

Good interpretation.
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by Brinthan on Thu Jun 02, 2016 8:10 pm

Thanx..EC Sir If i got some knowledge only because of you..
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by EquityChamp on Fri Jun 03, 2016 10:16 am

So GRAN came down to 74 level from the resistance levels of 80/82 and now again touching the resistance level. Lets see will it break this resistance at least now.
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by hotstock on Fri Jun 03, 2016 11:17 am

MACD is trending bullish

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by EquityChamp on Fri Jun 03, 2016 11:33 am

I said in advance that the price can come down but if do then good to collect. Within less than 10 days it is back to the place where it was. This was a good investment/trading opportunity for both short-term as well as long-term investors.
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by jaya on Fri Jun 03, 2016 1:22 pm

@EquityChamp wrote:I said in advance that the price can come down but if do then good to collect. Within less than 10 days it is back to the place where it was. This was a good investment/trading opportunity for both short-term as well as long-term investors.

If Grain breaks resistant level 80.00, categorically BFL and TAFL will follow the same.

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by Brinthan on Fri Jun 03, 2016 5:53 pm

All technical indicaters including daily indicater recommend to Strong buy...The clear message is coming from Technical indicaters..Now we can enter this share...


RSI Now move to 58 from 30...

All indicaters are possitive and this is the ideal time to enter this share..
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by EquityChamp on Fri Jun 03, 2016 7:29 pm

You have to watch for the resistanse level as well dear. 80/82 is the resistance level for this stock. If it can be breached with a volume of over 1mn shares then sure halt of 100/-.
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