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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

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1 Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Tue May 03, 2016 8:09 am

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
First topic message reminder :

Principle business activities
Selling of poultry feed & other animal feed, importing & selling of poultry equipment and related drugs, operating of poultry breeder farms, raising grandparent & parent stock, hatching & selling of day old chicks, operation of commercial farms & poultry processing.



Current business affairs
The company performed brilliantly during the year 2015 recording a revenue growth of 19% with a profit attributable to equity holders of Rs 943mn which was the highest in its 30 year history. The revenue performance were heavily influenced by the prevailing strong demand for the poultry related products in the country being the cheapest source of protein



Future outlook
The current demand for the poultry related products seems to be continuing for the next FY ahead while the production drops in nearby countries including India will create opportunities for export income if the company can increase the capacity.



Financial analysis
The stock's ROE has improved drastically but the PER has came down significantly compared to FY 2014. Though the stock's value gap is negative at CMP, it is evident that the share has more room for expansion. More importantly the company now become a more cash rich company as highlighted by the increasing positive gap between EPS & OFCPS



































 20142015
PAT attributable to equity holders80943
Equity28523794
EPS1.315.7
OCFPS1.846.8
PER          30.8            5.2
ROE2.8%28.4%
ROME3.3%19.2%
Value gap0.4%-9.2%
However it has been evident that the company's 2nd largest shareholder, Japfa LTD, is currently in the process of shedding their quantities in the market. They originally held 6mn shares and it has been estimated a further 4.2mn shares remain to shed as at 30th April 2016. Therefore this will create a stagnant effect on GRAN stock price movement and will require some time if the share to reach its true value.


nimantha80


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@EquityChamp wrote:Foreign holding decline by 1.4mn today. And the seller should have some quantities remain and it is certain that there will be buyers for that quantity as well. Lets get into this now.
exactly the amount of morning sell.So jafpa sold half of the amount

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@nimantha80 wrote:
@EquityChamp wrote:Foreign holding decline by 1.4mn today. And the seller should have some quantities remain and it is certain that there will be buyers for that quantity as well. Lets get into this now.
exactly the amount of morning sell.So jafpa sold half of the amount


are there any foreign buying. 

I think foreign buying also there. bcz one party collected last few weeks very slowly

mahasona


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
This is net foreign selling ,if foreign buyers were there the amount sold by Japfa is higher than 1.4Mn,Maybe they have cleared there holding.

Gran was kept under pressure for too long,now the pressure is released,it will see the moon in no time.

Out of the chicken lot GRAN will deliver the highest return.

79 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:16 pm

ONTHEMONEY


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Hi Guys!

JAFPA sold almost 50% of its stake today! It is confirmed news that JAFPA sell order is over at Rs 80/-.Brockers are LOLC and there is no sell orders for remaining quantity!

Considering the today's turnover I believe now #GRAN has enough fire power to collect even if it is sold at higher prices!Extremely undervalued counter and has to catch up #TAFL. Based on earnings and NAV it will clear Rs 100/- very shortly. I don't think technical charts will justify the movement since it is a catch up activity! 

Good luck

EquityChamp


Moderator
2nd round of sell off is today. Day by day the stinking barrier is easing off. A well crafted game plan for a valuable counter.

NZ BOY

avatar
Moderator
They are excellent if they push today more retail selling around 100 they push sell orders around 95 collecting nicely

82 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Wed Aug 31, 2016 10:11 pm

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
As I analysed and said the group who are fall in love with GRAN still not ready to let it find its true potential still purposely holding it to keep it close to 90-92 levels. No need to panic and exit but to hold on the retail investors patiently. They still have some of the foreign party's holdings to dispose at their will. Look t the below share holding statistics.
 

As at today GRAN foreign holding amounts to 35.96 Mn shares. According to 30th June quarter statement the following are the share holding by the other three major foreign shareholders other than Japfa.
Prima   - 27.27Mn
Supra   - 5.18Mn
Eka      - 2.27Mn
 

Total 34.72 Mn so there is a balance of 1.26Mn shares in the hands of foreigners. Don't think that this entire amount is in the hands of other foreigners so Japfa should still have a holding in between 0.5mn to 1mn.
 

Why I show these facts to you is to show you the true picture and help you to take the correct decision without getting panic unnecessarily and sell/buy ill advised. Trust that I have educated all of you enough to make informed decisions.
 

Thanks

83 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Wed Aug 31, 2016 10:56 pm

chamil1


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Machang, 

MELLON BANK N.A.-COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS  682,740 shares

I know 3 others hold  240,000 shares in total. I don't know whether they sold very recently. 

So even if Japfa holds, it is not significant compared the market buying.

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
Yes machang. I missed Mellon Bank as well as Astrue Alpha Fund, both together will form the balance 1.26Mn shares. So conclusion is Japfa's holdings have been divested fully at a price range below 90. Also people bought and buying these days are buying at a cost above 80 or within a price band of 80-90. So we can reasonably assume the target line is @ 90. Therefore from their onwards if we set a mid term appreciation of 50% the target price should be Rs135/- Then the derived target price for TAFL will automatically will be 175/- based on the gap between these two before the Japfa story begins.

So now you are all know what is going to come and action now.

Thanks

kadik


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
agreed.. but some brokers are telling that person who brought at 80 from JAFPA is selling...is it wrong.??

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
That can be true sometimes. But even if that happens now lot of trading happens around 90-95 level which means somebody or a group is buying at 90s so obviously they do so because they could see the value. You have to look at the broader picture.

Thanks

87 Dont Sell GRAN Should be up today on Thu Sep 01, 2016 9:57 am

NZ BOY

avatar
Moderator
Dont Sell GRAN Should be up today

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
Look at how much selling above 90???. Is that mean GRAN public float has increased due to Japfa selling or some more local people selling or a part of the strategy. It looks very complex at the moment.

nimantha80


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@EquityChamp wrote:Look at how much selling above 90???. Is that mean GRAN public float has increased due to Japfa selling or some more local people selling or a part of the strategy. It looks very complex at the moment.
you may have missed the bus but the direction is crystal clear

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
GRAN technical charts shows a reverse ness in bullishness from negative to positive. The reliability of the pattern is high given three outside ups. However the RSIs notching the upper bands of over bought region due to heavy buying we saw in last few days. May be chances are the share could reach oversold region clocking the RSIs above 80 in which case it will test the long waited 100/- level for the first time after the lapse of many months. The upcoming quarter earnings will provide the required fuel for this push.
Thanks

pfxavier


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
There might be up/down but it will reach where its belongs. I am holding 60% of my portfolio GRAN. I expect by Nov - Dec this will touch Rs 115/=

Cricketman


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@pfxavier wrote:There might be up/down but it will reach where its belongs. I am holding 60% of my portfolio GRAN. I expect by Nov - Dec this will touch Rs 115/=

This won't be a dream at all. Fundamentals are more than capable of taking Gran to 115.00

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Cricketman wrote:
@pfxavier wrote:There might be up/down but it will reach where its belongs. I am holding 60% of my portfolio GRAN. I expect by Nov - Dec this will touch Rs 115/=

This won't be a dream at all. Fundamentals are more than capable of taking Gran to 115.00


keep beveling this month GRAN trade over 115 level.  after breaking 100 Barrier this stock easily move to 115-120 level within short time. hopefully next week break 100 Barrier 

will see......

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
There is power behind this stock. Its like a sleeping volcano and now we could see some thin smoke into the air. Lava should be forming underneath.

95 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:04 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Friday - MACD cross to upward side 

will see.....

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
GRAN financials are due within 4th and sixth of the previous quarter end. So now its time to predict the 3rd quarter result. Any guesses before I reveal my number.

97 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:00 pm

kadik


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
4.50 rs.

98 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:03 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@EquityChamp wrote:GRAN financials are due within 4th and sixth of the previous quarter end. So now its time to predict the 3rd quarter result. Any guesses before I reveal my number.


over 6.00

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
It looks like the players or real investors are slowly lifting the support level to 100/-. The way it is trading this should not away more than few days.

100 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:16 pm

point

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
No upper breakouts also found support levels, Triple tops to triple bottoms its over reversal pattern now it will continues continuation . Show time

101 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Mon Oct 03, 2016 8:30 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Brinthan wrote:Strong sell signal from technical indicators...My Avg cost around Rs.81.5/- .....The selling preasure is still continues..
EC Sir What can i do for this present situation...Can i hold this or sell with lessor profit ...?


Hold it. very soon 120 level. if you want get profit get it.

102 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Mon Oct 03, 2016 8:44 pm

Brinthan

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@stockback wrote:
@Brinthan wrote:Strong sell signal from technical indicators...My Avg cost around Rs.81.5/- .....The selling preasure is still continues..
EC Sir What can i do for this present situation...Can i hold this or sell with lessor profit ...?


Hold it. very soon 120 level. if you want get profit get it.
This is my old post..However i hold GRAN with Avg cost of 81.5/- ...My minimum expectation is 115/- with in this year...Anyway thanks Mr.stockback..

103 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Mon Oct 03, 2016 9:42 pm

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
Very good Brinthan. Happy to see at least some guys are believing on value base investment in a market where 99% are buying when a stock starts a run.

104 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:08 pm

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
Charts becoming bullish and the buy signals appeared seems high in reliability. RSIs have gone above upper range of neutral. if we compare the RSI movement with chart trend I think more chances are for a reasonable price appreciation in short term.

105 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Tue Oct 04, 2016 7:18 am

pfxavier


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
EC, I guess its EPS around 5.3 for this quarter.

106 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Thu Oct 06, 2016 10:08 am

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
I am publishing the trading statistics for the last one month post the conclusion of Japfa deals. Here you have the daily statistics.
DatePriceOpenHighLowVolumeChange
Oct 05, 2016  97.30   98.00   98.20   96.60      72,310 -0.71%
Oct 04, 2016  98.00   97.90   98.40   97.00   329,960 0.10%
Oct 03, 2016  97.90   97.00   98.00   96.30   158,320 1.45%
Sep 30, 2016  96.50   95.10   97.40   95.10   268,900 0.52%
Sep 29, 2016  96.00   96.00   96.50   95.00      85,750 0.10%
Sep 28, 2016  95.90   96.50   97.00   95.50   128,060 -0.10%
Sep 27, 2016  96.00   96.50   97.50   95.50   133,410 0.00%
Sep 26, 2016  96.00   95.00   96.50   94.50   270,040 1.05%
Sep 23, 2016  95.00   93.00   96.00   92.00   270,110 1.50%
Sep 22, 2016  93.60   92.40   95.00   92.40   472,930 1.30%
Sep 21, 2016  92.40   92.50   92.50   90.00   133,910 1.54%
Sep 20, 2016  91.00   91.40   92.30   90.80      34,690 0.00%
Sep 19, 2016  91.00   91.20   93.00   90.50   137,820 -1.83%
Sep 15, 2016  92.70   94.00   94.00   92.00      67,970 -0.32%
Sep 14, 2016  93.00   92.30   93.90   92.00      60,230 -1.06%
Sep 13, 2016  94.00   94.40   94.40   92.40      64,130 -0.42%
Sep 09, 2016  94.40   93.40   94.50   92.80      88,070 0.96%
Sep 08, 2016  93.50   95.00   95.20   93.40   157,790 -0.64%
Sep 07, 2016  94.10   93.00   95.30   93.00   278,670 1.18%
Sep 06, 2016  93.00   93.10   94.80   91.80   299,350 0.22%
The summary is as follows.
Highest: 98.40
Lowest: 90.00
Difference: 8.40
Average: 94.57
Change %: 4.85
Total volume traded was over 3.5Mn shares between the price range of 90 and 98.40. What do you people think of these statistics. Is it normal trading or the person/group get holds with Japfa quantities are still collecting? if it is collecting then how much of free float is remaining in the market by now? How long this will be traded within the price band of 90-100. Think some really interesting questions to answer, isn't it?

107 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Fri Oct 07, 2016 8:08 am

sameboy

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
TAFL  tibba ganatama giya, eth BFL & GRAN yanne nene, BFL 195 n udata yanneth ne, 189n aduwata gannath be.ekko aduwenna one, neththan wedi wenna one.

108 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Fri Oct 07, 2016 12:39 pm

shadow walker

avatar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@EquityChamp wrote:I am publishing the trading statistics for the last one month post the conclusion of Japfa deals. Here you have the daily statistics.
 
DatePriceOpenHighLowVolumeChange
Oct 05, 2016  97.30   98.00   98.20   96.60      72,310 -0.71%
Oct 04, 2016  98.00   97.90   98.40   97.00   329,960 0.10%
Oct 03, 2016  97.90   97.00   98.00   96.30   158,320 1.45%
Sep 30, 2016  96.50   95.10   97.40   95.10   268,900 0.52%
Sep 29, 2016  96.00   96.00   96.50   95.00      85,750 0.10%
Sep 28, 2016  95.90   96.50   97.00   95.50   128,060 -0.10%
Sep 27, 2016  96.00   96.50   97.50   95.50   133,410 0.00%
Sep 26, 2016  96.00   95.00   96.50   94.50   270,040 1.05%
Sep 23, 2016  95.00   93.00   96.00   92.00   270,110 1.50%
Sep 22, 2016  93.60   92.40   95.00   92.40   472,930 1.30%
Sep 21, 2016  92.40   92.50   92.50   90.00   133,910 1.54%
Sep 20, 2016  91.00   91.40   92.30   90.80      34,690 0.00%
Sep 19, 2016  91.00   91.20   93.00   90.50   137,820 -1.83%
Sep 15, 2016  92.70   94.00   94.00   92.00      67,970 -0.32%
Sep 14, 2016  93.00   92.30   93.90   92.00      60,230 -1.06%
Sep 13, 2016  94.00   94.40   94.40   92.40      64,130 -0.42%
Sep 09, 2016  94.40   93.40   94.50   92.80      88,070 0.96%
Sep 08, 2016  93.50   95.00   95.20   93.40   157,790 -0.64%
Sep 07, 2016  94.10   93.00   95.30   93.00   278,670 1.18%
Sep 06, 2016  93.00   93.10   94.80   91.80   299,350 0.22%
The summary is as follows.
Highest: 98.40
Lowest: 90.00
Difference: 8.40
Average: 94.57
Change %: 4.85
Total volume traded was over 3.5Mn shares between the price range of 90 and 98.40. What do you people think of these statistics. Is it normal trading or the person/group get holds with Japfa quantities are still collecting? if it is collecting then how much of free float is remaining in the market by now? How long this will be traded within the price band of 90-100. Think some really interesting questions to answer, isn't it?

just check... again its going down..
http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/corn.aspx?timeframe=1y

 GRAN future will be good.. zero loans, 2B cash balance, lower corn price... what else investors need.. what to do sri lankan pandiths dont know about investments...

109 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Mon Oct 17, 2016 1:59 pm

EquityChamp

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Moderator
Keep your eyes open. There should be a golden investment opportunity if GRAN come below 90/-. Get ready to buy even small quantities.

110 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Mon Oct 17, 2016 2:11 pm

kassachandimal


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
EC what did u buy this week in this bloody market ?

111 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Mon Oct 17, 2016 3:00 pm

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy  You know my game. I m gonna to catch wounded soldiers and make them stronger in the future.

112 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Mon Oct 17, 2016 3:47 pm

kassachandimal


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Can you name some please

113 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Mon Oct 17, 2016 3:50 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@kassachandimal wrote:Can you name some please


he is talking about GRAN in this thread.  

to me GRAN is wounded soldiers of STF/SF

114 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Mon Oct 17, 2016 3:56 pm

Gallardo


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

 by EquityChamp Today at 1:59 pm

Keep your eyes open. There should be a golden investment opportunity if GRAN come below 90/-. Get ready to buy even small quantities.

I agree, one of the best investment opportunities at these prices.  Few are this SML positive.

115 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Tue Oct 18, 2016 11:56 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
now I chenge my mind. I expect over 7.5 from GRAN ,over 10 from TAFL

any ideas.....

116 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Wed Oct 19, 2016 1:02 am

kassachandi


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Stockback BFL high profits is bcoz of their new feed mill

117 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:53 am

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
Here is a brief forecast of GRAN for the next two quarters.

PAT for owners Q1 - Rs332Mn
PAT for owners Q2 - Rs287Mn
PAT for owners Q3 - Rs350Mn
PAT for owners Q4 - Rs485Mn

Forecasted EPS for 2016FY Rs24.2

PE ratio at the price of Rs 92 - 3.8x

Q3 report is expecting by this Friday. Lets see what are the actual performances.

Thanks

118 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:47 am

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
This one is available @ 90 now. Should be a Christmas gift by Trump. Very Happy

119 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Thu Nov 10, 2016 10:10 pm

ranga


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

120 Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock on Thu Nov 10, 2016 10:52 pm

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator

So what do you think about my estimate of 350Mn for Q3 Vs the actual 375Mn for Q3. Haven't I told you all that these companies are the followers to follow the path of NEST & CTC.

I am proud that for some reason I can do fairly accurate estimation and I am even proud that I can share those with my friends on time. If you made use of them then I am the happiest man in this forum. Basketball

Good luck.

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