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Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

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Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by EquityChamp on Tue May 03, 2016 8:09 am

First topic message reminder :

Principle business activities
Selling of poultry feed & other animal feed, importing & selling of poultry equipment and related drugs, operating of poultry breeder farms, raising grandparent & parent stock, hatching & selling of day old chicks, operation of commercial farms & poultry processing.



Current business affairs
The company performed brilliantly during the year 2015 recording a revenue growth of 19% with a profit attributable to equity holders of Rs 943mn which was the highest in its 30 year history. The revenue performance were heavily influenced by the prevailing strong demand for the poultry related products in the country being the cheapest source of protein



Future outlook
The current demand for the poultry related products seems to be continuing for the next FY ahead while the production drops in nearby countries including India will create opportunities for export income if the company can increase the capacity.



Financial analysis
The stock's ROE has improved drastically but the PER has came down significantly compared to FY 2014. Though the stock's value gap is negative at CMP, it is evident that the share has more room for expansion. More importantly the company now become a more cash rich company as highlighted by the increasing positive gap between EPS & OFCPS



































 20142015
PAT attributable to equity holders80943
Equity28523794
EPS1.315.7
OCFPS1.846.8
PER          30.8            5.2
ROE2.8%28.4%
ROME3.3%19.2%
Value gap0.4%-9.2%
However it has been evident that the company's 2nd largest shareholder, Japfa LTD, is currently in the process of shedding their quantities in the market. They originally held 6mn shares and it has been estimated a further 4.2mn shares remain to shed as at 30th April 2016. Therefore this will create a stagnant effect on GRAN stock price movement and will require some time if the share to reach its true value.
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by nimantha80 on Tue Aug 23, 2016 4:35 pm

@EquityChamp wrote:Foreign holding decline by 1.4mn today. And the seller should have some quantities remain and it is certain that there will be buyers for that quantity as well. Lets get into this now.
exactly the amount of morning sell.So jafpa sold half of the amount

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by stockback on Tue Aug 23, 2016 4:38 pm

@nimantha80 wrote:
@EquityChamp wrote:Foreign holding decline by 1.4mn today. And the seller should have some quantities remain and it is certain that there will be buyers for that quantity as well. Lets get into this now.
exactly the amount of morning sell.So jafpa sold half of the amount


are there any foreign buying. 

I think foreign buying also there. bcz one party collected last few weeks very slowly

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by mahasona on Tue Aug 23, 2016 8:54 pm

This is net foreign selling ,if foreign buyers were there the amount sold by Japfa is higher than 1.4Mn,Maybe they have cleared there holding.

Gran was kept under pressure for too long,now the pressure is released,it will see the moon in no time.

Out of the chicken lot GRAN will deliver the highest return.

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by ONTHEMONEY on Tue Aug 23, 2016 10:16 pm

Hi Guys!

JAFPA sold almost 50% of its stake today! It is confirmed news that JAFPA sell order is over at Rs 80/-.Brockers are LOLC and there is no sell orders for remaining quantity!

Considering the today's turnover I believe now #GRAN has enough fire power to collect even if it is sold at higher prices!Extremely undervalued counter and has to catch up #TAFL. Based on earnings and NAV it will clear Rs 100/- very shortly. I don't think technical charts will justify the movement since it is a catch up activity! 

Good luck

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by EquityChamp on Tue Aug 30, 2016 1:40 pm

2nd round of sell off is today. Day by day the stinking barrier is easing off. A well crafted game plan for a valuable counter.

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by NZ BOY on Wed Aug 31, 2016 2:02 pm

They are excellent if they push today more retail selling around 100 they push sell orders around 95 collecting nicely
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by EquityChamp on Wed Aug 31, 2016 10:11 pm

As I analysed and said the group who are fall in love with GRAN still not ready to let it find its true potential still purposely holding it to keep it close to 90-92 levels. No need to panic and exit but to hold on the retail investors patiently. They still have some of the foreign party's holdings to dispose at their will. Look t the below share holding statistics.
 

As at today GRAN foreign holding amounts to 35.96 Mn shares. According to 30th June quarter statement the following are the share holding by the other three major foreign shareholders other than Japfa.
Prima   - 27.27Mn
Supra   - 5.18Mn
Eka      - 2.27Mn
 

Total 34.72 Mn so there is a balance of 1.26Mn shares in the hands of foreigners. Don't think that this entire amount is in the hands of other foreigners so Japfa should still have a holding in between 0.5mn to 1mn.
 

Why I show these facts to you is to show you the true picture and help you to take the correct decision without getting panic unnecessarily and sell/buy ill advised. Trust that I have educated all of you enough to make informed decisions.
 

Thanks
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by chamil1 on Wed Aug 31, 2016 10:56 pm

Machang, 

MELLON BANK N.A.-COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS  682,740 shares

I know 3 others hold  240,000 shares in total. I don't know whether they sold very recently. 

So even if Japfa holds, it is not significant compared the market buying.

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by EquityChamp on Thu Sep 01, 2016 6:59 am

Yes machang. I missed Mellon Bank as well as Astrue Alpha Fund, both together will form the balance 1.26Mn shares. So conclusion is Japfa's holdings have been divested fully at a price range below 90. Also people bought and buying these days are buying at a cost above 80 or within a price band of 80-90. So we can reasonably assume the target line is @ 90. Therefore from their onwards if we set a mid term appreciation of 50% the target price should be Rs135/- Then the derived target price for TAFL will automatically will be 175/- based on the gap between these two before the Japfa story begins.

So now you are all know what is going to come and action now.

Thanks
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by kadik on Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:03 am

agreed.. but some brokers are telling that person who brought at 80 from JAFPA is selling...is it wrong.??

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by EquityChamp on Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:07 am

That can be true sometimes. But even if that happens now lot of trading happens around 90-95 level which means somebody or a group is buying at 90s so obviously they do so because they could see the value. You have to look at the broader picture.

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Dont Sell GRAN Should be up today

Post by NZ BOY on Thu Sep 01, 2016 9:57 am

Dont Sell GRAN Should be up today
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by EquityChamp on Thu Sep 01, 2016 2:05 pm

Look at how much selling above 90???. Is that mean GRAN public float has increased due to Japfa selling or some more local people selling or a part of the strategy. It looks very complex at the moment.
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by nimantha80 on Thu Sep 01, 2016 4:05 pm

@EquityChamp wrote:Look at how much selling above 90???. Is that mean GRAN public float has increased due to Japfa selling or some more local people selling or a part of the strategy. It looks very complex at the moment.
you may have missed the bus but the direction is crystal clear

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by EquityChamp on Sat Oct 01, 2016 7:42 am

GRAN technical charts shows a reverse ness in bullishness from negative to positive. The reliability of the pattern is high given three outside ups. However the RSIs notching the upper bands of over bought region due to heavy buying we saw in last few days. May be chances are the share could reach oversold region clocking the RSIs above 80 in which case it will test the long waited 100/- level for the first time after the lapse of many months. The upcoming quarter earnings will provide the required fuel for this push.
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by pfxavier on Sat Oct 01, 2016 7:58 am

There might be up/down but it will reach where its belongs. I am holding 60% of my portfolio GRAN. I expect by Nov - Dec this will touch Rs 115/=

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by Cricketman on Sat Oct 01, 2016 3:51 pm

@pfxavier wrote:There might be up/down but it will reach where its belongs. I am holding 60% of my portfolio GRAN. I expect by Nov - Dec this will touch Rs 115/=

This won't be a dream at all. Fundamentals are more than capable of taking Gran to 115.00

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by stockback on Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:23 pm

@Cricketman wrote:
@pfxavier wrote:There might be up/down but it will reach where its belongs. I am holding 60% of my portfolio GRAN. I expect by Nov - Dec this will touch Rs 115/=

This won't be a dream at all. Fundamentals are more than capable of taking Gran to 115.00


keep beveling this month GRAN trade over 115 level.  after breaking 100 Barrier this stock easily move to 115-120 level within short time. hopefully next week break 100 Barrier 

will see......

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by EquityChamp on Sat Oct 01, 2016 7:12 pm

There is power behind this stock. Its like a sleeping volcano and now we could see some thin smoke into the air. Lava should be forming underneath.
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by stockback on Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:04 pm

Friday - MACD cross to upward side 

will see.....

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by EquityChamp on Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:53 pm

GRAN financials are due within 4th and sixth of the previous quarter end. So now its time to predict the 3rd quarter result. Any guesses before I reveal my number.
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by kadik on Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:00 pm

4.50 rs.

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by stockback on Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:03 pm

@EquityChamp wrote:GRAN financials are due within 4th and sixth of the previous quarter end. So now its time to predict the 3rd quarter result. Any guesses before I reveal my number.


over 6.00

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by EquityChamp on Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:42 pm

It looks like the players or real investors are slowly lifting the support level to 100/-. The way it is trading this should not away more than few days.
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by point on Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:16 pm

No upper breakouts also found support levels, Triple tops to triple bottoms its over reversal pattern now it will continues continuation . Show time
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by stockback on Mon Oct 03, 2016 8:30 pm

@Brinthan wrote:Strong sell signal from technical indicators...My Avg cost around Rs.81.5/- .....The selling preasure is still continues..
EC Sir What can i do for this present situation...Can i hold this or sell with lessor profit ...?


Hold it. very soon 120 level. if you want get profit get it.

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by Brinthan on Mon Oct 03, 2016 8:44 pm

@stockback wrote:
@Brinthan wrote:Strong sell signal from technical indicators...My Avg cost around Rs.81.5/- .....The selling preasure is still continues..
EC Sir What can i do for this present situation...Can i hold this or sell with lessor profit ...?


Hold it. very soon 120 level. if you want get profit get it.
This is my old post..However i hold GRAN with Avg cost of 81.5/- ...My minimum expectation is 115/- with in this year...Anyway thanks Mr.stockback..
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by EquityChamp on Mon Oct 03, 2016 9:42 pm

Very good Brinthan. Happy to see at least some guys are believing on value base investment in a market where 99% are buying when a stock starts a run.
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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by EquityChamp on Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:08 pm

Charts becoming bullish and the buy signals appeared seems high in reliability. RSIs have gone above upper range of neutral. if we compare the RSI movement with chart trend I think more chances are for a reasonable price appreciation in short term.

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Re: Ceylon Grain Elevators - A Value Rich Stock

Post by pfxavier on Tue Oct 04, 2016 7:18 am

EC, I guess its EPS around 5.3 for this quarter.

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