Sri Lanka Equity Forum
Dear Reader,

Registration with the Sri Lanka Equity Forum would enable you to enjoy an array of other services such as Member Rankings, User Groups, Own Posts & Profile, Exclusive Research, Live Chat Box etc..

All information contained in this forum is subject to Disclaimer Notice published.


Thank You
Sri Lanka Equity Forum

Discussion Forum for Stock Market Investors in Sri Lanka

සිංහල පරිවර්තනය
Submit Post
Submit Post

Latest topics

» #PM Crisis#
by samaritan Today at 3:45 pm

» Don't put your money on risk ! Buy politically less effect shares !!!!
by The Hunter Today at 12:55 pm

» Financial Reports Q-3 2018
by ruwan326 Today at 11:59 am

» what is the best price for TKYO
by Pahan Today at 11:11 am

» Is HNB price is attractive
by Pahan Today at 10:57 am

» BFN DEAL -DONT SELL BFN AT 14 LEVEL
by kalu351 Today at 10:45 am

» MARKET RISE - GUARANTEED
by ranferdi Today at 9:39 am

» BFN Deal to go on in spite of the political crisis
by kalu351 Today at 8:36 am

» ##FUN TOONS###
by ruwan326 Today at 7:06 am

» TBs worth Rs.14.2 bn issued to SriLankan in 2012
by ruwan326 Yesterday at 6:42 am

» SRI LANKA @ 2020
by ruwan326 Sat Nov 17, 2018 7:24 am

» Dealing by directors
by ruwan326 Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:08 pm

» Summary of Key Announcements during the week
by ruwan326 Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:06 pm

» Daily Foreign Transactions
by ruwan326 Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:05 pm

» CSE WEEKLY
by ruwan326 Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:02 pm

» BFN Price HOLDING ON AS THE DEAL COME CLOSER
by sanjulanka Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:29 pm

» Another Finance sector deal UBC UBC UBC Deal
by kalu351 Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:56 am

» BFN BFN BFN BFN BFN DEAL ......WITH CHINESE BANK
by kalu351 Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:54 am

» MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED
by Maharaja Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:32 am

» Q-TO-Q Financial Report-Financial Performance- Period ended 30 September 2018
by ruwan326 Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:00 pm

» CB raises key rates in surprise move to support currency
by Miss-Sangeetha Thu Nov 15, 2018 4:59 pm

» President rejects NCM brought against PM, Govt.
by ranferdi Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:36 pm

» DIVIDEND ANNOUNCEMENTS- OCT/NOV
by ruwan326 Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:59 pm

» Supreme Court issues stay order on Gazette dissolving Parliament
by THUWA Wed Nov 14, 2018 5:28 pm

» CSE THIS WEEK
by ruwan326 Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:27 am

» Veterans return to lead state banks
by ruwan326 Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:21 am

» Collect ODEL Range Rs. 23-25 .......Target Price over Rs.35
by soileconomy Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:54 pm

» අනං## මනං ##
by ruwan326 Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:52 pm

» JKH News & Reports
by ruwan326 Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:11 pm

» Survey - Individual Investors' Behaviour and Investment Performance
by eroshans Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:49 pm

You are not connected. Please login or register

Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Dialog Axiata PLC - Towards 10Bn profit mark again

Dialog Axiata PLC - Towards 10Bn profit mark again

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

Thushara Ayya

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
See.....

charith666lk


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Thushara Ayya wrote:See.....
Reason?

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
The Q1 numbers and the outlook for 2016 is going to be better than 2015. You can expect the price will adjust to 2015 beginning level very soon. Already it has passed the January 2016 opening price.

I will publish my forecast for 2016 shortly.

Teller

avatar
Moderator
Possible to dome Negative impact due to vat increasement and adjustment if taxes

chamil1


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
When foreign buying starts this will move up.

Less linked to performance.

Agree on the tax matter mentioned by Teller as well as exchange rate impact on loans taken.

Thushara Ayya

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@EquityChamp wrote:The Q1 numbers and the outlook for 2016 is going to be better than 2015. You can expect the price will adjust to 2015 beginning level very soon. Already it has passed the January 2016 opening price.

I will publish my forecast for 2016 shortly.

Yes EC, this was in 14/= level those days. This down is due to the Tax imposed by the new govt, can you remember? This should be adjusted to 14 level again. And 2016 is better than 2015 figures...

Chinwi

avatar
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
When we forecast for 2016 , should we consider the impact of heavy VAT imposed recently ?

Sometimes, it will not only reduce some amounts near bottomline but affect top lines also.
When people see increasing of call charges they may control their spending by reducing call time.
We can study about this phenomena in coming months. Whether the effect is negligible or significant w.r.t. past performances.

For Year ending 31Dec 2015, EPS was 0.64. NAVPS is 5.81.

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
To give you a hint
Revenue will be impated by the additional call charges to end consumer but this is for PrP customers mainly
Then you need to take into consideration the benefit they are going to get with the qualification of claiming the input taxes which they couldn't do due to VAT exemption. Also their depreciation charges will going to be low as well due to the same reason.
In the final context the profitability won't be impacted as similar to what ever the revenue loss.
Now I have given you a hint so can you guys think of the numbers Very Happy:D:D

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
As said here you can find my forecast for Q1. I'll keep Q2-Q4 till they publish Q1.
Rs mnQ4 14Q1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 15Q1 16 F
Revenue  17,278   17,331   17,745   18,816   20,039    20,796
Revenue growth 0.3%2.4%6.0%6.5%3.8%
PAT1478198219076796202495
PAT margin8.6%11.4%10.7%3.6%3.1%12.0%
This year their PAT will be driven by increase in revenue and decrease in foreign exchange losses. So far in 2016 LKR has depreciated only by0.6 rupees against doller

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
Can be a sleeping giant. The daily technical charts are still neutral. The stock was trading @ 14 levels year earlier. One stock expected to regain the lost ground together with JKH & COMB within the next couple of quarters.

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
For your reference. The below is my forecast of Dial for the next two quarters and the FY 16.
Rs MnQ1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 15Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 16FY 15 AFY 16 FYoY
Revenue  17,331   17,745   18,816   20,039   21,157   21,065   22,118   22,339   73,931   86,680 17%
Growth0.3%2.4%6.0%6.5%5.6%-0.4%5.0%1.0%   
PAT    1,982     1,907        679        620     2,666     2,283     2,322     2,011     5,188     9,282 79%
PAT Margin11.4%10.7%3.6%3.1%12.6%10.8%10.5%9.0%   
Their EPS is projected to grow by 79% YoY to reach Rs1.14. Also I am projecting a YoY revenue growth of 17% amidst the impact of introducing VAT on telecom services.

At the CMP of 11/40 the stock is trading at a forward PE of 10.0x. This is a stock normally trading around 15x-18x PE with a premium to market PE and amazingly it is now trading at a discount to the market. Since the market was on a long depression it is bound to jump up any moment sooner than later. And when that happens you will see DIAL is trading above Rs17/-. Which means this stock is trading at a 50% discount to its true value.

I am rating DIAL as an AAA+ investment grade stock for your portfolios.

Thanks

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
Hi Friends,
Now what do you think on my estimate for Q3. Expectation was 2.3Bn and they have release 2.8Bn. What a stock this has been but still today the share dropped by 10 cents.

Are there anyone to share similar forecasted earnings about stocks in this forum. If we can have couple of those here then the discussions will be much more productive.

Thanks

Bullrunner7

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Hi EC 
Where did you learn to forecast earnings ? 
Smile

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
@Bullrunner7 wrote:Hi EC 
Where did you learn to forecast earnings ? 
Smile
From Warren Buffet Very Happy

Back to top  Message [Page 1 of 1]

Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum