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Three Acre Farms PLC - A stock with growing profitability

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Three Acre Farms PLC - A stock with growing profitability

Post by EquityChamp on Sun May 08, 2016 8:50 pm

Principle Business Activities
Selective breeding, hatching and sale of commercial DOCs, grandparent farm operations, import grandparent DOCs, advance technology breeding and commercial broiler farming.

Industry Outlook
The country has seen a rapid expansion in the production of poultry related products on the back of expensive alternative of Fish and the other substitutes of meet such as pork and beef. The cheap nature of poultry products have attracted very high demand and thereby increased the suppliers. This trend has created growing demand for day old chicks; the main product of TAFL.

Financial Performance
The company has experienced continued growth in revenue every quarter recording a compounded quarterly revenue growth of 8.6% since Q4 2014. Its PAT margin has improved from 11.6% in Q4 14 to 33.2% in Q1 16 due to the efforts in increased productivity and decline in key raw material cost continuously.
Rs mnQ4 14Q1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 15Q1 16
Revenue414441493558598624
Revenue growth 6.5%11.8%13.2%7.2%4.3%
PAT4879107161203207
PAT margin11.6%17.9%21.7%28.9%33.9%33.2%
The company generates a substantial ROE of 45% in Q1 16 with a 4 quarter trailing EPS of Rs 28.9.

Valuation
An ROE of 45% in an any industry will be a tremendous achievement. At the CMP of Rs125.50 the stock is trading at a 4Q trailing PE of 4.3x. The current prices reflects a huge intrinsic value hence you are advised to collect the stock and hold in the medium term.

Thanks
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Re: Three Acre Farms PLC - A stock with growing profitability

Post by pfxavier on Sun May 08, 2016 10:00 pm

Good informative analysis. Another point is now company is debt free. This will increase the next quarter bottom line as well. Nice work EquityChamp !

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Re: Three Acre Farms PLC - A stock with growing profitability

Post by kassachandi on Mon May 09, 2016 5:14 am

In the short term TAFL price has to be adjusted to 150-160 with this super consistent performance.

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Re: Three Acre Farms PLC - A stock with growing profitability

Post by EquityChamp on Wed May 11, 2016 8:11 am

TAFL showing strong BUY signals in all daily, weekly and monthly technical charts. The Bull/Bear power(13) indicator has very high values of 39 for monthly charts and 16.5 for daily chats. These values are very very strong to indicates bullish sentiment of the share.
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Re: Three Acre Farms PLC - A stock with growing profitability

Post by Brinthan on Wed May 11, 2016 5:57 pm

@EquityChamp wrote:TAFL showing strong BUY signals in all daily, weekly and monthly technical charts. The Bull/Bear power(13) indicator has very high values of 39 for monthly charts and 16.5 for daily chats. These values are very very strong to indicates bullish sentiment of the share.
EC sir  what is the Software are u use it for your technical analysis......? I am using investing.com.
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Re: Three Acre Farms PLC - A stock with growing profitability

Post by EquityChamp on Wed May 11, 2016 7:57 pm

Investing.com is fine with me also. Also metastock is good for me. But investing.com is very easy to use and readily available the info we want.
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Re: Three Acre Farms PLC - A stock with growing profitability

Post by EquityChamp on Wed May 11, 2016 8:06 pm

Additionally investing.com allows to keep a track of the trend of technical indicators. For example the Bull/Bear Power(13) indicator for daily charts has jumped up today to 21.4 from 16.5 yesterday. This means the bulls are getting stronger and stronger than bears. RSI went up to 79 indicating overbought but the bull trend is very much intact.
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Re: Three Acre Farms PLC - A stock with growing profitability

Post by kassachandi on Thu May 12, 2016 5:53 am

TAFL is slowly but surely reaching to its target of 150

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Re: Three Acre Farms PLC - A stock with growing profitability

Post by EquityChamp on Thu May 12, 2016 8:13 am

Look at the below trading statistics of TAFL since 1st of April to date.
Date Price  Open  High  Low Vol.Change %
May 11, 2016 131.6   129.3  132.9  129.0 61.70K2.02%
May 10, 2016 129.0   127.5  130.0  123.0 128.90K1.57%
May 09, 2016 127.0   126.0  128.0  124.0 48.56K2.42%
May 06, 2016 124.0   124.0  128.0  123.2 129.69K2.56%
May 05, 2016 120.9   120.0  122.3  119.1 40.11K-1.06%
May 04, 2016 122.2   122.0  124.7  118.9 61.10K0.16%
May 03, 2016 122.0   123.4  124.8  120.0 72.65K-0.41%
Apr 29, 2016 122.5   118.0  124.0  118.0 357.32K4.70%
Apr 28, 2016 117.0   113.0  118.0  112.0 165.81K4.00%
Apr 27, 2016 112.5   109.8  113.0  108.5 132.20K4.17%
Apr 26, 2016 108.0   106.0  109.0  105.8 81.94K2.08%
Apr 25, 2016 105.8   106.0  106.0  102.0 107.45K-0.19%
Apr 22, 2016 106.0   104.0  106.0  103.0 37.53K2.91%
Apr 20, 2016 103.0   104.0  105.0  103.0 13.82K-1.90%
Apr 19, 2016 105.0   106.0  106.0  103.0 6.42K0.96%
Apr 18, 2016 104.0   105.1  106.8  103.0 11.69K-2.80%
Apr 15, 2016 107.0   107.9  108.5  106.0 37.80K0.94%
Apr 12, 2016 106.0   103.5  107.0  102.1 83.02K3.92%
Apr 11, 2016 102.0   102.0  103.5    98.0 94.55K2.00%
Apr 08, 2016 100.0   102.9  104.8  100.0 54.63K-2.15%
Apr 07, 2016 102.2   101.0  104.8    99.0 61.20K2.20%
Apr 06, 2016 100.0   101.0  102.0    98.0 125.69K-1.86%
Apr 05, 2016 101.9     92.8  101.9    92.8 231.19K9.81%
Apr 04, 2016  92.8     89.8    92.8    89.8 109.73K4.39%
Apr 01, 2016  88.9     88.5    89.0    86.3 40.51K4.47%
Out of 25 trading days 18days the CMP was up and only 7days it is down. Also you can note that the price range for the entire period was 86.30 - 132.90 and the share has gone up by nearly 50%. Also you could seen that when the share hit 100 level it has came up by very slowly with 2%, 3% 4% daily change +/-. Additionally even with 50% gain so far the stock is still bullish in their daily, weekly as well as monthly charts with strong buy signals.

All these facts indicates that this stock has now entered into a sustainable bull run and the life of the bull is much longer than any one can expect. Further this bull run has material differences with previous bull run where it went up from 30s to 160 with some days of more than 10% growth. The current trading indicates investors buy the stock and realise the profit and then again enter into stock so that unlike the previous time we hardly see people buy low and keep on holding seeing that their unrealised gains sky rocketing by 50%,75%, 100% etc. This should be the reason that we can't see any panic when TAFL ends in red of it CMP in one day but back to green in the other day as well changing only 2%,3%,4% per day.

So my conclusion is this bull run will sustain longer than the previous one and will probably take to 200/- by September this year.
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Re: Three Acre Farms PLC - A stock with growing profitability

Post by worthiness on Thu May 12, 2016 10:57 am

Current market trend is progressive but moving up at slow phase. TAFL is considered to be the most undervalued stock that brings more profits in the future. Slow demanding pattern is the bottleneck to rising the price of TAFL that takes sometime to overcome. Growth indicators are excellent to think of buying & holding the TAFL.

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Re: Three Acre Farms PLC - A stock with growing profitability

Post by Beta1 on Thu May 12, 2016 11:02 am

@worthiness wrote:Current market trend is progressive but moving up at slow phase. TAFL is considered to be the most undervalued stock that brings more profits in the future. Slow demanding pattern is the bottleneck to rising the price of TAFL that takes sometime to overcome. Growth indicators are excellent to think of buying & holding the TAFL.
totally agree with you
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Re: Three Acre Farms PLC - A stock with growing profitability

Post by kassachandi on Thu May 12, 2016 6:01 pm

Today was a good day to collect this value gem.

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Re: Three Acre Farms PLC - A stock with growing profitability

Post by EquityChamp on Tue Jul 12, 2016 12:14 pm

As I said in a previous post TAFL is a buying stock between 120-122 and those who bought so can can expect a decent profit @ 130/- so now price is 131/-. Its a done deal now Very Happy
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Re: Three Acre Farms PLC - A stock with growing profitability

Post by kassachandi on Tue Jul 12, 2016 3:52 pm

140+ is now a possibility for TAFL before financial reports

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Re: Three Acre Farms PLC - A stock with growing profitability

Post by worthiness on Tue Jul 12, 2016 7:55 pm

Today TAFL leaped over Rs.130/= level. As EC figured out before, with new market initiative TAFL should pass Rs.140/= hurdle soon. Tricky transactions are purposely done to bring down the share prices of valued stock. 
Observing the transaction movement you could have seen how BFL & GRAN were forcefully hit at low prices. Achievement of operational profit for quarter just ended could pull the trigger on for next level of pricing.

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Re: Three Acre Farms PLC - A stock with growing profitability

Post by kassachandimal on Thu Jul 14, 2016 11:26 am

Buyers are lining up with huge bids

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Re: Three Acre Farms PLC - A stock with growing profitability

Post by EquityChamp on Thu Jul 14, 2016 12:16 pm

I sense a major break-up is near. Meaning the long held resistance level is in a threat now. Let's wait and see.
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Re: Three Acre Farms PLC - A stock with growing profitability

Post by Vacations To Sri Lanka on Thu Jul 14, 2016 12:19 pm

What is your target EC?
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Re: Three Acre Farms PLC - A stock with growing profitability

Post by EquityChamp on Thu Jul 14, 2016 12:23 pm

A company with a PAT margin of 33% trading at a PE of 4x what should be the intrinsic value. If the price doubles from the current levels still the PE is 8x. Isn't it an amazing stock.
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Re: Three Acre Farms PLC - A stock with growing profitability

Post by kassachandimal on Thu Jul 14, 2016 12:28 pm

Yeah EC. This time TAFL seems in for a major run. Might end up 150-160 range. Did u sold ur quantity EC

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Re: Three Acre Farms PLC - A stock with growing profitability

Post by EquityChamp on Thu Jul 14, 2016 12:37 pm

No brother. My one is a long term holding. As similar to holding Nestle costing 90+ and CTC costing 30+ I am holding this and GRAN as well but will add little by little when the price comes down. Will not disclose my holding here Very Happy
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Re: Three Acre Farms PLC - A stock with growing profitability

Post by kassachandimal on Thu Jul 14, 2016 12:51 pm

What is short term target for TAFL EC ?  I think with the chicken price also increased we can see extraordinary earnings from TAFL. Retail interest will get higher day by day for TAFL

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Re: Three Acre Farms PLC - A stock with growing profitability

Post by EquityChamp on Thu Jul 14, 2016 1:15 pm

In short term it can reach 150/- but the price momentum has a link with GRAN price as well. Lets see how GRAN going to move.
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Re: Three Acre Farms PLC - A stock with growing profitability

Post by EquityChamp on Fri Jul 15, 2016 7:21 am

For whom it may concern. Please glance through my newest forecast for TAFL.

























































Rs mnQ1 16 AQ2 16 FFY 14 AFY 15 AFY 16 F
Revenue624       64116772089     2,798
Gross Profit246       256219618     1,131
GP margin39.4%40%13%30%40%
PBT242       250174603     1,105
PBT margin38.8%39%10%29%39%
PAT207       211165551         940
PAT margin33.2%33%10%26%34%
Q2 results were forecasted taking into account the possible impacts caused by floods hence revenue and PAT growth is marginal. However Q3 & Q4 going to be superb once more given that increased demand for day old chicks, increased margins due to higher controlled price and increased consumption of chicken due to reduction in selling prices in non branded chicken stalls due to controlled price.

At CMP of 135/- the stock is trading at a forward PE of 3.4x which is unbelievably low for a company like TAFL whose earnings growth potential is phenomenal while the balance sheet is almost debt-free hence no interest rate risk. Further you can expect a dividend of at least Rs5 for FY 2016.

My valuations stand at Rs205.8 for medium term (two quarters from now) but the stock carries an intrinsic value of Rs290.4 in the longer run (one to two years from now) based on projected earnings.

Thanks
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Re: Three Acre Farms PLC - A stock with growing profitability

Post by EquityChamp on Tue Aug 02, 2016 10:08 am

TAFL is not dragging down to 120 levels as previous instances insteed hs found support arround 135/-. When will be the next move is just a matter of time now. TAFL holders better to awake.
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