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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Political and Socio-Economic Analysis » Why can't scientists accurately predict the weather?

Why can't scientists accurately predict the weather?

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Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
They cannot predict amount of rainfall we get days in advance when cyclones arrive with huge amount of water . Some depressions bring mid amount of water while others bring huge amount of water to different areas of the land.
(In some countries they use to measure clouds using Radar before they precipitate)  

Somehow, humans should know how to predict flood levels accurately  in affected areas before the rising of water levels because they get all the data needed for the calculation in advance.

Flood level prediction is much easier than landslide or earthquake prediction.

Our lethargic people in MET / IRRI departments are wasting money and time for last 40 years to develop flood models for major river basins but recent results show nothing has happened.

SriLanka's formation gives good support to the developers of flood prediction models.

In brief :

♦ We get rainfall in upper hills , the catchment areas of main rivers like Kelani  , kalu  are many miles away from low level floodplains.

♦ We do measure hourly  rainfall in may places in all the catchments thus we know the amount coming from sky to  each area or sub plain.

♦ After falling to hill terrain water take many hours to reach floodplain in low level areas to create floods. ( for eg. Welivita, Wellampitiya,  Kelaniya , Malwana in Kelani River plain.)

♦ Mid way river gauge stations in Hanwella, Pugoda, Kitulgala, Deraniyagala etc. can fine tune rainfall calculations.

♦ Topography of flooding areas are known constants.

This means all the data needed to calculate flood levels in advance are available. You should get raw prediction at least 12 hrs before the rising of water levels in your area and 5 hr rapid flow prediction.
This is announcing water level at each point in advance. So in major flood you have enough time to evacuate.

Now what happens is you keep observing the danger and value the danged after it reach you.

I think all the relevant departments are recording rainfall and flood levels every time. They can use those historical data to develop flood model for Kelani and Kalu basins.

For past many decades these officials have wasted millions of peoples money in this subject. Some were sent to European countries to get education in remote sensing , computer modelling ,   precipitation measuring Radar (WSR) etc. Some of them are now working for private companies.

The major problem I observe is, those officials who got appointed in-charge time to time are well qualified Technical or Civil Engineers but they have no inherited knowledge or trained minds in computer modelling.  They try to recreate everything inside the computers and fail again and again.



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