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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Teejay Jersey Lanka PLC - Depreciated Rupee had a very positive impact

Teejay Jersey Lanka PLC - Depreciated Rupee had a very positive impact

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EquityChamp

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Moderator
The stock is very very bullish. Unable to do a further study because the cse.lk site is bullshit these days.



Last edited by EquityChamp on Fri Oct 07, 2016 6:45 am; edited 2 times in total

kumarweerarathne

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Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Dividend declared, good profits,company enhanced,GSP+ on da way.. What else?? 45+ midterm.:-)

Teller

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Moderator
Have some exports companies shares. GSP Plus is possible this time.

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
After a huge battle with CSE website managed to get some info for a detailed analysis. You can refer below table for a summary and FY 2016/17 forecast.
 2010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/17F
Turnover     9,285   12,364   10,951   12,725   13,678   17,830     19,613
GP margin11.7%10.3%11.6%11.5%11.9%16.9%16.0%
Net profits        685         629      1,016      1,153      1,332      2,172        2,354
NP margin7.4%5.1%9.3%9.1%9.7%12.2%12.0%
EPS         1.2          1.0          1.6          1.8          2.0          3.1            3.4
DPS 0.481.241.31.31.6         1.70
DY %   8.2%5.4%5.0%4.6%
PER              -               -           9.0        11.9        10.2          11.0
As you can see in the above table TJL has consistently maintain a healthy profit margin till 2014/15. In the year 2015/16 the margin jumps to 17%, a 5pp increase over last year as well the revenue leapfrog by 30%. The jump had mainly happen in Q2 and Q3 where LKR depreciated heavily. Subsequently in Q4 (Jan-Mar 16 period) I observed a decline in revenue QoQ where the LKR depreciation was by only 0.6 rupees. This clearly shows that FY 2015/16 is clearly benefitted to TJL by LKR depreciation and as a result huge improvement in share price as well.
Next year I won't see such a depreciation in LKR so that any revenue growth to be of normal growth in business volumes but margins going to be same. Therefore I expect a PAT of 2.35bn for next year. In terms of valuations, the share is currently trading @ a PE of11x @ CMP which is equal to their historical average PE. This means that the share is currently trading @ a fair price and so short term gains will be very low based on intrinsic value method. However given their strong annual growth earnings outlook in the longer term we can expect an annual compound growth rate of 10% for the stock price subject to positive overall market growth momentum. Also you can expect an annual DY of 5% which is very attractive compared to market DY. This stock is recommended for value investors who are willing to build a long term-growing portfolio.

Thanks

kumarweerarathne

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Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Fantastic,, hats off for ur effort.

Chinwi

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Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Few months ago I thought EC is reappearing of SLS in new identity king

Yahapalanaya

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Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Goodwork EC.

EquityChamp

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Moderator
@Chinwi wrote:Few months ago I thought EC is reappearing of SLS in new  identity king
EquityChamp was a profile created initially with a fondness to participate actively in this Forum. Later on I identified how it was in the past and from there to current state. I understood and research how the past giants were contributing. People like SLS,Small, etc were fantastic fundamental analysts and people like Shark,RPPA etc were fantastic technical analysts. So I decided EquityChamp profile should be positioned as an ideal blend of fundamental as well as technical analysis with a little bit flavor on humor.

So from there to now you see how the profile of EC evolves. If the members getting any advantage from it then I am more than happy.

Thanks

kumarweerarathne

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Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
This is the best and safer share in CSE currently coz of Many reasons.. So get in to it quckly before it accelerates .. :-)

charith666lk


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@EquityChamp wrote:
@Chinwi wrote:Few months ago I thought EC is reappearing of SLS in new  identity king
EquityChamp was a profile created initially with a fondness to participate actively in this Forum. Later on I identified how it was in the past and from there to current state. I understood and research how the past giants were contributing. People like SLS,Small, etc were fantastic fundamental analysts and people like Shark,RPPA etc were fantastic technical analysts. So I decided EquityChamp profile should be positioned as an ideal blend of fundamental as well as technical analysis with a little bit flavor on humor.

So from there to now you see how the profile of EC evolves. If the members getting any advantage from it then I am more than happy.

Thanks
Hats of dear EC

Suranga malli

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Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Den okka Maximum udata geela thiyenne..GSP magula denna kalin appahu okka pahalata ei...

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
Technical charts indicate TJL is in overbought condition though the daily and weekly charts show a buy signal. Better thing is to allow some time to cool-off the heat. May be it will stabilize around 35.

crnsuranjith


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
https://www.facebook.com/harshadesilvaunp/videos/806164702846843/

Dear EC,

How much discount (%) get for GSP+ and Did you consider it for your FY 2016/17 forecast ?

Thank you.

Teller

avatar
Moderator
Price can drop to 34.50 but we don't know how will react by foreign party and GSP Plus.
99% GSP Plus is sure so accordingly flying 45/- also possible.
In approximately TJL has given me 13-14 lakh dividend income since I invested on it.
I respect TJL management, staff who dedicated to my return

kumarweerarathne

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
If it come down to 35, what an oppurtunity to buy back.. i feel it wont come down to dat below by looking at its trading pattern. This is nt a fake run, dividend declared, GSP + soon. & Dnt forget ,having GSP + or not This share was driven by its consistent growth over the past few years. So nothing to worry about GSP factor, jst hold.

crnsuranjith


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
it is heading to 40 by this Friday.

Suranga malli

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@crnsuranjith wrote:it is heading to 40 by this Friday.
Share price ekkak ehema wedi kapu widiyata Ehema yanne bang...Okko 34 rata  33 ta wage ei...GSP lebunoth 40++ Sure..

kumarweerarathne

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Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Balan hitapan oka 34 ta enakan.. Razz

Suranga malli

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Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Ei malli awulda...??

Suranga malli

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Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@kumarweerarathne wrote:Balan hitapan oka 34 ta enakan.. Razz
Malli kohamada okka pahalata awe...34 rata ei sure...

cruiserdude


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Guys,
Can the American political scenario be an effect to TJL in long run? Specially if someone like Donald trump wins the election. I beleive America is one of the countries that buys our garments and Trump is a person who beleives in manufacturing in country than outsourcing.

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
TJL showing strong signs of surpassing 40/- level. It is a solid investment for long term investors.
GL.

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
1st quarter profits shot up by 93% due to strong growth in revenue. Looks like they are going to beat my forecast Shocked

kadik


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
it's almost ready for the next run up to 42-43

Teller

avatar
Moderator
This is the best share I invested in my life with average cost per share around 8/- rupees. Dividend received nearly total capital invested.
Well done TJL

kadik


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
agreed... well done TJL  heading to 42-43 levels

kapifm

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I have made Profit..every time whenever i invest  IN TJL

ranjan01


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Ec, 

This equity in galloping form. It will definitely beat your forecast. 

Any one knows about the state of GSP+ ? Lots of shares transacted last few days.

monash

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
I beleive TJL at peak of its run and this will soon turnaround and settle down at around 40 for sometime before next run.

MGT is another valuable share in appereal sector that succeeded a massive turnaround over last 2 years. Their YoY profit before tax increased by 176% compared to 2015. ROE has grown to 11% compared to 2015. With TJL run MGT is yet to get attention of the traders. But it will soon start to follow TJL during next few weeks.

MGT is currently trading at 18.50-19.00 range. This will give minimum of 50% return wiithin this quarter with the gsp+ factor confirms.

kumarweerarathne

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@kumarweerarathne wrote:Dividend declared, good profits,company enhanced,GSP+ on da way.. What else?? 45+ midterm.:-)

 Very Happy

kadik


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
considering the buying pressure. it should move further up....45 -46 is ok to exit...only temporary..

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
When the TJL price be upgraded to 50/-. I guess its very sooner than we thought. Be a wise investor. Yesterday I hinted 46/- and today it seems reaching there.

Thanks

kadik


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
yes..it seem not only the local investors, but also foreign investors are following you.. Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

thankrishan


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
One of the best stock in my portfolio.
Any impact due to the name change and is there any potential reason behind the run?

omegaplus

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
TJL is one of the best companies with great strategises and management. One reason for steady growth is their ability to invest in future. 
This should grow steady unless there is dramatic change in markets. 
GSP + still to come.
But there is danger with  TPP( trance pacific partnership) and sure TJL have plans for that.

EquityChamp

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Moderator
TJL saw a net increase in foreign holdings by 2.4 Mn shares. This share is extremely bullish among foreigners even though foreign selling is huge today.

Teller

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Moderator
I heard they are going to change their name . Is it true EC?

omegaplus

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Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

@Teller wrote:I heard they are going to change their name . Is it true EC?
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_cse_announcements/1701474450875_.pdf

thankrishan


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Is it good to exit now? Whats your view guys???

kcd1992


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@thankrishan wrote:Is it good to exit now? Whats your view guys???

Exit ? why ?  Very Happy see it for yourself

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