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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Teejay Jersey Lanka PLC - Depreciated Rupee had a very positive impact

Teejay Jersey Lanka PLC - Depreciated Rupee had a very positive impact

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EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
First topic message reminder :

The stock is very very bullish. Unable to do a further study because the cse.lk site is bullshit these days.



Last edited by EquityChamp on Fri Oct 07, 2016 6:45 am; edited 2 times in total


EquityChamp


Moderator
TJL chart is a very strong bullish chart. its moving continuously and sustainable. It moved from 37 to 41 and now moving from 40 to 47.50. Medium term 55/- + is a real possibility.

EquityChamp


Moderator
Dear Members,
Based on the Q1 results I am upgrading TJL's full year revenue forecast to Rs21.4Bn and profit attributable to equity holders forecast to Rs2.8Bn.
I am expecting a revenue around Rs6Bn and profits around Rs720Mn for the upcoming quarter.
In terms of valuations the stock can be valued in the range of Rs37.4 to Rs53.7 based on historical PE averages, industry PE multiples and Market PE. And the current trading price of 47.1 is within this range but for me it seems that the stock is moving towards the higher band of the above valuation range if investors see TJL is on track to achieve the projected results during the coming quarters. 

 2010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/17F
Turnover     9,285   12,364   10,951   12,725   13,678   17,830     21,396
GP margin11.7%10.3%11.6%11.5%11.9%16.9%17.0%
Net profits        685         629      1,016      1,153      1,332      2,172        2,781
NP margin7.4%5.1%9.3%9.1%9.7%12.2%13.0%
EPS         1.2          1.0          1.6          1.8          2.0          3.1            4.0
DPS 0.481.241.31.31.6         1.70
DY %   8.2%5.4%5.0%4.6%
PER              -               -           9.0        11.9        10.2          11.9

Brinthan


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
After the RW yesterday speech ,We can expect Today onwards Foriegners continuesly exit from specially TJL...

EquityChamp


Moderator
@Brinthan wrote:After the RW yesterday speech ,We can expect Today onwards Foriegners continuesly exit from specially TJL...

I couldn't follow. What were the main points in that speech.

omegaplus


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@EquityChamp wrote:
@Brinthan wrote:After the RW yesterday speech ,We can expect Today onwards Foriegners continuesly exit from specially TJL...

I couldn't follow. What were the main points in that speech.


For TJL it is not a negative news as far as TJL concern, they are doing really well even without GSP+. TJL are doing really well. When sri lanka get the GSP+ it will be another boost for it.

Brinthan

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@EquityChamp wrote:
@Brinthan wrote:After the RW yesterday speech ,We can expect Today onwards Foriegners continuesly exit from specially TJL...

I couldn't follow. What were the main points in that speech.
EC sir Omega plus uploaded that speech...

Thanx Omega plus for that...

Brinthan

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@omegaplus wrote:
@EquityChamp wrote:
@Brinthan wrote:After the RW yesterday speech ,We can expect Today onwards Foriegners continuesly exit from specially TJL...

I couldn't follow. What were the main points in that speech.


For TJL it is not a negative news as far as TJL concern, they are doing really well even without GSP+. TJL are doing really well. When sri lanka get the GSP+ it will be another boost for it.
I am not going to say it is negative factor for TJL but it will slowdown the uptrend momentum and possible turn around also expected..

vic19

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Brinthan wrote:After the RW yesterday speech ,We can expect Today onwards Foriegners continuesly exit from specially TJL...
i don't understand as to why you have arrived at these conclusion.

I suggest you to listen to his speech again.

for me I don't think any one will exit after hearing that speech ........

Rolling EyesRolling EyesRolling Eyes

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
TJL doesn't dependent on GSP+. It is certainly not limping now without GSP+.

thankrishan


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Even without the GSP+, this will be a winning stock.

omegaplus

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@thankrishan wrote:Even without the GSP+, this will be a winning stock.
Last few years TJL doing extremely well.
It was , is and it will be a winning stock regardless of GSP+. 
If we get GSP+ that will be  extra boost.

Kashyapa Senarathne

avatar
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
@omegaplus wrote:
@thankrishan wrote:Even without the GSP+, this will be a winning stock.
Last few years TJL doing extremely well.
It was , is and it will be a winning stock regardless of GSP+. 
If we get GSP+ that will be  extra boost.

True. The business model is strong and fundamental.

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
As I said TJL is not limping without GSP+. They have made 400Mn in Q1 and now 590Mn in Q2. My target of 2.8Bn for 2016/17 FY is certainly not a dream. I invite investors who are not fear of blood to come out and take proper decision for you own future.

Thanks

omegaplus

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@EquityChamp wrote:As I said TJL is not limping without GSP+. They have made 400Mn in Q1 and now 590Mn in Q2. My target of 2.8Bn for 2016/17 FY is certainly not a dream. I invite investors who are not fear of blood to come out and take proper decision for you own future.

Thanks

Yes they are doing well and going to have a another great FY.
GSP+, it's going to be extra boost.

Brinthan

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
The price below 45/- is attractive those who are re enter this share....Don't miss i thought tomorrow is the day...Cheers..

thankrishan


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Rupee depreciation
GSP+
Upcoming dividend
Year end financials

With the boost of the above where the price will get stabilized?

Deen79


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Hard to say, another two quarters like this one and stock will tank. I hold TJL too so lets hope it goes up!

samcader


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
TJL  haas  been  announcing a  dividend  during  the Month  of  May  during  the  last  few  years  as  such  a  dividend  announcement  is  awaited

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
You don't need to worry with TJL. Just because we saw few quarters of reduced profit that doesn't mean that the company is dead. We have to look at their future plans, industry growth potential, why the profits declined for the last two quarters, etc. A big plus factor is the share is stabilizing @ 40 levels and foreigners too buying in big at the same level.

TJL future will be bright. I will publish the updated estimates shortly.

thankrishan


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Why the Dividend Announcement is pending?

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
Most probably there will be no dividend, just my guess.

smallinvestor


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@EquityChamp wrote:Dear Members,
Based on the Q1 results I am upgrading TJL's full year revenue forecast to Rs21.4Bn and profit attributable to equity holders forecast to Rs2.8Bn.
I am expecting a revenue around Rs6Bn and profits around Rs720Mn for the upcoming quarter.
In terms of valuations the stock can be valued in the range of Rs37.4 to Rs53.7 based on historical PE averages, industry PE multiples and Market PE. And the current trading price of 47.1 is within this range but for me it seems that the stock is moving towards the higher band of the above valuation range if investors see TJL is on track to achieve the projected results during the coming quarters. 

 2010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/17F
Turnover     9,285   12,364   10,951   12,725   13,678   17,830     21,396
GP margin11.7%10.3%11.6%11.5%11.9%16.9%17.0%
Net profits        685         629      1,016      1,153      1,332      2,172        2,781
NP margin7.4%5.1%9.3%9.1%9.7%12.2%13.0%
EPS         1.2          1.0          1.6          1.8          2.0          3.1            4.0
DPS 0.481.241.31.31.6         1.70
DY %   8.2%5.4%5.0%4.6%
PER              -               -           9.0        11.9        10.2          11.9

Sure this trend will continue, The Company has a Consent Dividend Policy. Even the paid Dividend soon after their acquisitions. No doubt on the Dividend payment. The announcement will come within this month or early of July. Waiting for the price appreciation to next level Rs. 50.

thankrishan


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
This is not moving. 41.10 - 41.40 for a long time.

kumarweerarathne

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
TJL is boosting up, hit closer 42 today ,Good sign guys can be FB,they know da future value of it, Waiting for 50+

thankrishan


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@kumarweerarathne wrote:TJL is boosting up, hit closer 42 today ,Good sign guys can be FB,they know da future value of it,  Waiting for 50+

Expecting for a Dividend as well.

samcader


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Re  price  appreciation  and  dividend  we  may  have  to  await  2nd qr  financial  results  expected  end  july 2017

Deen79


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
GSP + should really help although i doubt we will see the results of this until Q4.

kumarweerarathne

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Yes need to wait atleast 2 Quaters to deliver da gud results.. This is a stable share with consistent growth. gud management datz da key

thankrishan


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
High volumes in trade, Any news on the way???

kumarweerarathne

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
May b da dividend

thankrishan


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@kumarweerarathne wrote:May b da dividend
 Rs. 1 dividend can be expected.

Hanoifortune

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Hopeless one.

I cleared all my holding ,over 200k shares today.


,moved the funds to DPL and BPPL.

crs

avatar
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@Hanoifortune wrote:Hopeless one.

I cleared all my holding ,over 200k shares today.


,moved the funds to DPL and BPPL.

Why BPPL?

samcader


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
TJL  have  declared  a  dividend of   Rs  1.25  during  the  last  2  yrs  the  dividend  was  only Re  1/-  we  may  be  able  to  expect  a  price  appreciation  of  this  share. The  1st  Qr  financial  report  is  expected  at  the  end  of  July 2017

samcader


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
The  Dividend  dates  are  as  follows:-
Date  of  announcement  29th  JUNE
AGM  30th  AUGUST
XD   31st   AUGUST
Payment  12th  Sept

thankrishan


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@thankrishan wrote:
@kumarweerarathne wrote:May b da dividend
 Rs. 1 dividend can be expected.

As expected.

smallinvestor


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@thankrishan wrote:
@thankrishan wrote:
@kumarweerarathne wrote:May b da dividend
 Rs. 1 dividend can be expected.

As expected.

No need to worry at all about the dividend distribution of TJL. Since the Company continuously distributing around 1/3 of its profit as dividend annually.  

Accordingly this year the total DPS is 2.25, continuous growth since IPO (2011).

reyaz

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
By far the best company in the cointry- most profitable

thankrishan


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Gone down due to poor performance, but no worries this will bounce back shortly.

Good buy counter if price further goes down.

samcader


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Todays  drop  was  cts .60  turnover  today  was  2  million  shares.
A    final dividend  of  Rs 1.25  has  been  declared. XD  date  is  30thAugust  2017  I  expect  the   share  to  move  up  closer  to  this  date

smallinvestor


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
For those who are negative about this counter,

Please sell, we are waiting to buy at discount.

Teller

avatar
Moderator
I expect 12℅ price decline for this share

kumarweerarathne

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
According to their report , are suffering frm incresed cotton prices & end of Tax holyday, so it will go flat for another 2 or 3 Qs, will hit 35/36 in Sep.

ddrperera


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@kumarweerarathne wrote:According to their report , are suffering frm incresed cotton prices &  end of Tax holyday, so it will go flat for another 2 or 3 Qs, will hit 35/36 in Sep.
Now EPS wise  poor this share  over value ..I will expect Rs. 32 -34 Range....

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