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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » LIOC not moving

LIOC not moving

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1 LIOC not moving on Fri Aug 05, 2016 5:09 pm

thala


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Dear experts,

Why is lioc not moving at all for a long time any thoughts as to why there is so much selling pressure?

Please share your thoughts.

2 Re: LIOC not moving on Sat Aug 06, 2016 8:47 am

thala


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Guys  any ideas please

3 Re: LIOC not moving on Sat Aug 06, 2016 10:03 am

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
The falling oil prices in the world market and the envisaged lead role of LIOC in the transformation of trinco as oil hub will surely see this share price booming in the near future. Pl hold. GL

4 Re: LIOC not moving on Sat Aug 06, 2016 4:57 pm

predictor


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
LIOC will report their best ever qtr results in few days. As per my prediction LIOC EPS for the 30th June Qtr alone should be over Rs. 4/- This will be even higher than whole of last year. 2nd qtr LIOC should earn about 2/- and the full year should be over Rs. 12/-
Don't get deceive by some players in the market.
If you had look at the order book last few days you could have noticed there were only few buyers and big sellers. But 2nd August Sales were 245,853 shares, 3rd 215,401, 4th 100,301 and yesterday 44,605.
If you look at the order book right now, there are buyers for 17,621 only and sellers for 197,913 shares.
People are collecting at very low prices. Within next few days you will see Net assets per share has gone upto over Rs. 39/- as at 30th June.

Compared to previous govt. this govt will not run Petrol.corporation at a loss and LIOC will achieve may be their best ever year and should touch Rs. 50/-
If you need 30% profit collect now.

5 Re: LIOC not moving on Sat Aug 06, 2016 10:22 pm

happybulls

avatar
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Mr.Teller please give your opinion on this stock.. alien alien alien

6 Re: LIOC not moving on Mon Aug 08, 2016 1:54 pm

nuwan85


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
I think LIOC will start to move in the coming weeks. Hope they should report good profit with the reduced world crude price.  Last quarter they reported remarkable profit and  I think they will report outstanding performance this time also. Now lot of people are monitoring to enter the stock. With the good result definitely there will be a strong collection and up side price movement. Now LIOC is in a strong position and they will produce good results continuously. As per the international analyst, low crude price will continue number of coming years. Current government is not selling fuel at a loss since they want to run state organizations profitably. And also government is trying to build good international relationships so they don’t like to disturb International Investments. Hope due to these supporting factors LIOC is marching continues upward. I believe this journey will reach to all time high share price.  GL.

7 Re: LIOC not moving on Mon Aug 08, 2016 9:02 pm

predictor


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
As I mentioned yesterday people are slowly collecting from ignorant investors. Today 230,769 shares traded. If you look at the order book now it is only 20,842 buying side and 172,623 in selling side.
Over 830,00 traded during last 4 days.

In few more days LIOC may touch Rs. 50/- after they 
release the 1st qtr results

8 Re: LIOC not moving on Tue Aug 09, 2016 5:21 pm

thala


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
There was some collection today as well hope it will breaj soon

9 Re: LIOC not moving on Thu Aug 11, 2016 6:51 pm

thala


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Good collection today as we hope it will not be stagnant this time

10 Re: LIOC not moving on Fri Aug 12, 2016 7:41 pm

happybulls

avatar
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Q42015                -    EPS 2.92
Q12016                -    EPS 3.75 


Annualize 3.5 x 4  =    14

Value of the share at PER 6 = 14 x06  = 84

NAV  as at 30.06.2016       = 38
CMP                         = 37.60

What is the expert opinion of target price by end of 2016 ???

11 Re: LIOC not moving on Fri Aug 12, 2016 8:10 pm

predictor


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
I predicted for the 1st qtr EPS of over 4/-. 1st qtr Reported 3/75.
94% correct.
Similarly 2nd qtr my prediction is over 2/- EPS and for the year it will be over Rs. 10/-( With the last qtr activities)

With the new activities EPS can go even above 12/-for the 16/17. Such a good share traded below the book value today.

Very good share in the market. Some may try to manipulate and buy don't get caught.

IOC is fortune 500 company and 75% LIOC holding by them and majority of IOC by the Indian Govt.

With the present relationship with India LIOC should touch 80/- by the end this year.

12 Re: LIOC not moving on Fri Aug 12, 2016 9:28 pm

thala


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Can we expect 48 at short term

13 Re: LIOC not moving on Fri Aug 12, 2016 10:46 pm

predictor


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
LIOC highest price of Rs. 65/- was in Nov 2014.
They reported EPS of Rs. 9/- in 2013/14 and 1st half of 2014/15 2.3 bln profit. Just after this report went up to 65/-
This year 2016/17 reported 2 Bln for the 1st qtr alone and will report over 3.5Bln for the 1st half.
Shouldn't it go beyond 60/- soon. Should touch 80/- end of 2016.

14 Re: LIOC not moving on Fri Aug 12, 2016 11:07 pm

thala


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@predictor wrote:LIOC highest price of Rs. 65/- was in Nov 2014.
They reported EPS of Rs. 9/- in 2013/14 and 1st half of 2014/15 2.3 bln profit. Just after this report went up to 65/-
This year 2016/17 reported 2 Bln for the 1st qtr alone and will report over 3.5Bln for the 1st half.
Shouldn't it go beyond 60/- soon. Should touch 80/- end of 2016.

Yes very impressive profit this, but if it can aborsob the selling pressure it will be wonderful. So will hav to see on Monday how this will move forward. hope it will fly Laughing

15 Re: LIOC not moving on Fri Aug 12, 2016 11:39 pm

hiransilva23


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Unfortunatly i dnt hav this.this should shoot onwards monday.

16 Re: LIOC not moving on Fri Aug 12, 2016 11:48 pm

happybulls

avatar
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Please find the small work done by myself,,,

                      N.P      EPS     NAV

2016/17 q1      1.99      3.75    38

2015/16 q1      0.171    0.32    34
2015/16 q2     (0.37)   (0.70)   32
2015/16 q3     0.88      1.66     31
2015/16 q4     1.55      2.92     35

Total              2.23      4.21

2014/15 q1     1.202     2.26   34
2014/15 q2     1.134     2.13   34.9
2014/15 q3     0.610     1.15   36
2014/15 q4   (1.066)    (2.0)   34

Total             1.888      3.54

2013/14 q1    1.349      2.53   27
2013/14 q2    1.485      2.78   28.79
2013/14 q3    1.255      2.36   31.15
2013/14 q4    0.722      1.36   32

Total             4.813      9.04

Even though LIOC prices are very unpredictable at this time many things are favorable for rapid price increase. Hope Monday onward....This government will introduce pricing formula once crude oil prices in up trend. Good investment... alien alien alien alien alien

17 Re: LIOC not moving on Sat Aug 13, 2016 4:53 pm

thala


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@happybulls wrote:Please find the small work done by myself,,,

                      N.P      EPS     NAV

2016/17 q1      1.99      3.75    38

2015/16 q1      0.171    0.32    34
2015/16 q2     (0.37)   (0.70)   32
2015/16 q3     0.88      1.66     31
2015/16 q4     1.55      2.92     35

Total              2.23      4.21

2014/15 q1     1.202     2.26   34
2014/15 q2     1.134     2.13   34.9
2014/15 q3     0.610     1.15   36
2014/15 q4   (1.066)    (2.0)   34

Total             1.888      3.54

2013/14 q1    1.349      2.53   27
2013/14 q2    1.485      2.78   28.79
2013/14 q3    1.255      2.36   31.15
2013/14 q4    0.722      1.36   32

Total             4.813      9.04

Even though LIOC prices are very unpredictable at this time many things are favorable for rapid price increase. Hope Monday onward....This government will introduce pricing formula once crude oil prices in up trend. Good investment... alien alien alien alien alien

Mate good analysis are u able to put the prices as well at the end of each quarter

18 Re: LIOC not moving on Sun Aug 14, 2016 9:00 am

Truestory


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
If LIOC climbed upto 65/- after reporting 2.3 bln profit for the 1st half of 2014/15. Can it go beyond with the 1st qtr profit of 2 bln. Those days people had a doubt about the Govt. action on LIOC. If the pricing Formula going to be introduce soon keeping the same profit for the Govt LIOC price should touch 85/- 90/- after reporting 2nd qtr.

19 Re: LIOC not moving on Sun Aug 14, 2016 9:59 pm

thala


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Guys any thoughts on tomorrow price for lioc

20 Re: LIOC not moving on Sun Aug 14, 2016 10:11 pm

happybulls

avatar
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Rs.40/-,41/- is possible....but there was a huge selling pressure also.

21 Re: LIOC not moving on Mon Aug 15, 2016 2:39 am

ccsentha


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@happybulls wrote:Rs.40/-,41/- is possible....but there was a huge selling pressure also.

why is it only 40-41? lioc has had an impressive performance, why wouldn't the price rocket away?

22 Re: LIOC not moving on Mon Aug 15, 2016 6:44 am

predictor


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
There was a selling pressure few months back. Now it is not. Some are trying to show that there is selling pressure and trying to buy at lower levels.

  Just check the order book today. It shows just 71,000 buying and 350,000 selling. Out of these you can see more than 52,000 about 70% on the board for the buying side and out of selling can see only 30%. Sellers are at higher prices.In order to buy at low they show huge selling orders and trying to collect. ie people who are having shares show the selling orders. This has been the case last few weeks.
check the last friday  196,000 shares traded. end of the day buyers have gone and matched the sellers. 82% matched the sellers prices and bought.
If there were selling pressure sellers should have matched the buying orders.
Don't get caught.

23 Re: LIOC not moving on Mon Aug 15, 2016 8:14 am

thala


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
My short term target is 48 min but let's see what happens

24 Re: LIOC not moving on Mon Aug 15, 2016 10:51 am

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@samaritan wrote:The falling oil prices in the world market and the envisaged lead role of LIOC in the transformation of trinco as oil hub will surely see this share price booming in the near future. Pl hold. GL
LIOC-CPC joint venture to develop Trinco tank farm (daily FT).
http://www.ft.lk/article/561626/LIOC-CPC-joint-venture-to-develop-Trinco-tank-farm--Minister

25 Re: LIOC not moving on Mon Aug 15, 2016 11:38 am

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@thala wrote:My short term target is 48 min but let's see what happens
A realistic target in the short term.

26 Re: LIOC not moving on Mon Aug 15, 2016 8:07 pm

thala


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
As expected came close to 41, its wait n watch game now

27 Re: LIOC not moving on Mon Aug 15, 2016 9:20 pm

thala


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
As expected came close to 41, its wait n watch game now

28 Re: LIOC not moving on Tue Aug 16, 2016 3:58 pm

thala


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Today all traded above 40 with good volume the huge selling was absorbed very well.  lets wait n see tomorrow

29 Re: LIOC not moving on Tue Aug 16, 2016 4:04 pm

kapifm

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Tomorrow...... is  a  Rest  day......Machan... Laughing

30 Re: LIOC not moving on Tue Aug 16, 2016 5:16 pm

thala


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@kapifm wrote:Tomorrow...... is  a  Rest  day......Machan... Laughing

Opps yeah Wink

31 Re: LIOC not moving on Thu Aug 18, 2016 10:16 pm

thala


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Today also one million shares traded. Mostly above 40.5, i m trying figure out will there be a sudden run, or will be a solid uptrend.  

Experts please comment on this please..... ..

32 Re: LIOC not moving on Thu Aug 18, 2016 11:01 pm

Chinwi

avatar
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
I think same fate for Petrolium and chicken.

Uncertainty and past pains.
In addition, fund managers of big funds linked to the Govt. are staying in safe mode due to fear of punishments in a future fall.

Politicians of most of the parties will come forward to punish them in an investment loss.

33 Re: LIOC not moving on Thu Aug 18, 2016 11:10 pm

Teller

avatar
Moderator
LIOC has many more uncertainancies time to time some times it's climbing to sky high ,some times bottom of the well.
Only God knows how the prices are going up and down .
Last time lot of people strcuted in 50-55 levels.
That's the reason buying as well as huge selling also.
New comers have to much careful to enter correct level.
Obviously LIOC is not bad but last 5-6 times the same scenario was happend.
Stil no one know how price formula is going to apply?

34 Re: LIOC not moving on Fri Aug 19, 2016 6:13 am

predictor


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Previous uncertainty situation changed with the new government. No need to run the petrolium at a loss by giving concessions. When the Formula is introduced profits will not changed drastically. Pricing formula is to make profits and not to incur losses. Most of the Countries where they have formula petrol/Diesel prices are higher than Srilanka.

EPS will be at least Rs. 10/-. from the present activities. With the planned new activities like distribution etc more chances are there to have a better EPS. That means LIOC should touch at least 80/-.(10/-*8 P/E)

35 Re: LIOC not moving on Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:43 pm

thala


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Any prediction for upward trend tomorrow. Or will it come down a bit and go up again

36 Re: LIOC not moving on Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:16 pm

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@predictor wrote:Previous uncertainty situation changed with the new government. No need to run the petrolium at a loss by giving concessions. When the Formula is introduced profits will not changed drastically. Pricing formula is to make profits and not to incur losses. Most of the Countries where they have formula petrol/Diesel prices are higher than Srilanka.

EPS will be at least Rs. 10/-. from the present activities. With the planned new activities like distribution etc more chances are there to have a better EPS. That means LIOC should touch at least 80/-.(10/-*8 P/E)
A JUSTIFIABLE PREDICTION BY PREDICTOR!

37 Re: LIOC not moving on Fri Aug 26, 2016 9:59 am

thala


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Lioc crashing huge selling cant see why any news

38 Re: LIOC not moving on Fri Aug 26, 2016 10:04 am

Novice Learner


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Why the price is going down?

39 Re: LIOC not moving on Fri Aug 26, 2016 12:25 pm

thala


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Managed to go up a bit but huge collection.  Which means tgere will be good selling pressure above 40

40 Re: LIOC not moving on Fri Aug 26, 2016 12:34 pm

SLBOY


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Teller wrote:LIOC has many more uncertainancies time to time some times it's climbing to sky high ,some times bottom of the well.
Only God knows how the prices are going up and down .
Last time lot of people strcuted in 50-55 levels.
That's the reason buying as well as huge selling also.
New comers have to much careful to enter correct level.
Obviously LIOC is not bad but last 5-6 times the same scenario was happend.
Stil no one know how price formula is going to apply?

Very Happy Very Happy

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