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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » LIOC not moving

LIOC not moving

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1 LIOC not moving on Fri Aug 05, 2016 5:09 pm

thala


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
First topic message reminder :

Dear experts,

Why is lioc not moving at all for a long time any thoughts as to why there is so much selling pressure?

Please share your thoughts.


41 Re: LIOC not moving on Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:16 pm

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@predictor wrote:Previous uncertainty situation changed with the new government. No need to run the petrolium at a loss by giving concessions. When the Formula is introduced profits will not changed drastically. Pricing formula is to make profits and not to incur losses. Most of the Countries where they have formula petrol/Diesel prices are higher than Srilanka.

EPS will be at least Rs. 10/-. from the present activities. With the planned new activities like distribution etc more chances are there to have a better EPS. That means LIOC should touch at least 80/-.(10/-*8 P/E)
A JUSTIFIABLE PREDICTION BY PREDICTOR!

42 Re: LIOC not moving on Fri Aug 26, 2016 9:59 am

thala


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Lioc crashing huge selling cant see why any news

43 Re: LIOC not moving on Fri Aug 26, 2016 10:04 am

Novice Learner


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Why the price is going down?

44 Re: LIOC not moving on Fri Aug 26, 2016 12:25 pm

thala


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Managed to go up a bit but huge collection.  Which means tgere will be good selling pressure above 40

45 Re: LIOC not moving on Fri Aug 26, 2016 12:34 pm

SLBOY


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Teller wrote:LIOC has many more uncertainancies time to time some times it's climbing to sky high ,some times bottom of the well.
Only God knows how the prices are going up and down .
Last time lot of people strcuted in 50-55 levels.
That's the reason buying as well as huge selling also.
New comers have to much careful to enter correct level.
Obviously LIOC is not bad but last 5-6 times the same scenario was happend.
Stil no one know how price formula is going to apply?

Very Happy Very Happy

46 Re: LIOC not moving on Fri Aug 26, 2016 2:59 pm

thala


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
This is from brs, we hav to now analyse the bottom price of it

Excise duty on Diesel has been increased by LKR 10 to LKR 13 (previous - LKR 3) with effect from 20th August 2016, according to Ceylon Petroleum Corporation. However, the news is not made public as yet and no indication of retail price hike can be recognized. Therefore, we believe that the company will have to absorb the increased tax amount as a cost.
 
Considering the latest financial data, we have come up with the possible impact on the margins as follows. Our calculations indicate a ~400 basis points drop in GP margin and LKR ~750mn bottom line hit per quarter (EPS impact - LKR 1.41 per quarter)

47 Re: LIOC not moving on Sun Aug 28, 2016 9:41 pm

thala


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Guys any thoughts on tomorrows price,  i think may be 1 or 2 rs up by market close due to the huge fall on Friday 
 Or will it have further 1 or 2 rs fall extended losses due to the tax  increase?

48 Re: LIOC not moving on Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:29 am

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
More chances are to come down and settle around 35 hen the next quarter result is out. Will add some pressure on market index as well.
Thanks

49 Re: LIOC not moving on Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:35 am

Yahapalanaya

avatar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@samaritan wrote:
@predictor wrote:Previous uncertainty situation changed with the new government. No need to run the petrolium at a loss by giving concessions. When the Formula is introduced profits will not changed drastically. Pricing formula is to make profits and not to incur losses. Most of the Countries where they have formula petrol/Diesel prices are higher than Srilanka.

EPS will be at least Rs. 10/-. from the present activities. With the planned new activities like distribution etc more chances are there to have a better EPS. That means LIOC should touch at least 80/-.(10/-*8 P/E)
A JUSTIFIABLE PREDICTION BY PREDICTOR!
What is your MM tool predicts!!!

50 Re: LIOC not moving on Tue Aug 30, 2016 3:25 pm

thala


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Seems lioc recovered from the great fall, now we have 
to wait for the next cycle of selling to begin as close to 9 to 10 mn shares traded in the range of 35.8 to 41.60 just alone in the last week. Is those buyers decided to hold it for some time until the ex dividend date then atleast we can expect this to trade above 42.

51 Re: LIOC not moving on Tue Aug 30, 2016 10:39 pm

gayanath1983

avatar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Not 42 this will pass 50 easily

52 Re: LIOC not moving on Wed Aug 31, 2016 9:14 pm

thala


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
http://asianmirror.lk/news/item/18688-request-made-to-raise-increase
 
Lanka IOC has requested permission from government to introduce a fuel price hike after the diesel production tax was increased.

The company says the increase of the diesel production tax from Rs 3 to Rs 13 has increased their production cost by 56 percent.

The company also claims that it has affected the production of petrol as well.

It is reported that Lanka IOC has requested for a meeting with Minister of Petroleum and Petroleum Gas Chandima Weerakkody.

53 Re: LIOC not moving on Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:54 am

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Ravi K will give some concession to CPC after discussion

with Chandima W

No price increase Tax will be reduced

LIOC will be benefited continuously because of CPC

CPC cost is very high because of inefficiencies mainly due to unproductive employment by Politicians

Profit of LIOC will increase year by year
Share prices also will increase

I hope next week around 45/=

54 Re: LIOC not moving on Sat Sep 03, 2016 5:21 pm

thala


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Anyone has any news on LIOC will there be a reduction in tax?

55 Re: LIOC not moving on Sun Sep 04, 2016 7:06 am

Yahapalanaya

avatar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Positive

This counter is undervalued as per EPS(Q) 3.75 EPS(A) 15

Oil prices are still low at world market

Negative

But sentiments are against this counter.

This quarter LIOC profit 1 900M(1.9B). Indian oil corporation gets 1900 X .75 =1425M out 1900M profit.Even Gamini Lokuge refer this in balaya political program.So whenever profit go up,pressure will come from several quarters like JVP,etc. 

This is essential items.Government will often intervene on behalf of people or presserised by opposition.

56 Re: LIOC not moving on Fri Sep 09, 2016 4:31 pm

thala


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Minor uptrend today probably because of selling drying out, any thoughts on this guys or any latest info on this?

57 Re: LIOC not moving on Fri Sep 09, 2016 11:45 pm

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Until CPC is there LIOC will have good profits

CPC cost is very high because of political appointments

LIOC price wiil go up with the time and

Present trend is abnormal

58 Re: LIOC not moving on Sat Sep 10, 2016 4:50 am

TARGET


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@thala wrote:Minor uptrend today probably because of selling drying out, any thoughts on this guys or any latest info on this?
If you have this just hold. You will amazed.

59 Re: LIOC not moving on Wed Sep 14, 2016 9:24 pm

happybulls

avatar
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Sept 14, 2016 (LBO) – A proposal for automatic fuel pricing has been accepted in principle, Sri Lanka’s Petroleum Minister Chandima Weerakkody said on Wednesday, adding a timeline for implementation has not yet been decided.
“The Finance Ministry and relevant committees are discussing the details. My proposal has been accepted in principle,” he said, speaking to media.
According to commitments to the International Monetary Fund, the Ministry of Finance has promised to introduce a fuel pricing mechanism that ensures retail fuel prices are above cost-recovery levels by December 2016.

60 Re: LIOC not moving on Wed Sep 14, 2016 9:30 pm

happybulls

avatar
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
I am confident that this time pricing mechanism will come by December.Also witnessed 2.7 Mn foreign inflow today?? This will be a happy news for LIOC share holders...

61 Re: LIOC not moving on Wed Sep 14, 2016 11:23 pm

Truestory


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
You are correct happybulls. Fuel pricing formula was agreed with IMF for Us $ 1.5B loan as per the following article. It should come in December 2016.
http://www.economynext.com/Market_based_Sri_Lanka_fuel,_electricity_pricing_from_December-3-5260-1.html

With the formula LIOC /CPC will not operate at a loss. Once the formula is introduced it may be applicable for either 3 months or 6 months like other countries.
Formula will ensure CPC/LIOC will have stable profits from petrol/Diesel sales. Hence with other activities where there is less control LIOC will make bigger bottom line. 
May be a very good investment at this price.

62 Re: LIOC not moving on Thu Sep 15, 2016 1:15 pm

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Any way CPC selling price and LIOC selling price will be same

Allways good prifit for LIOC

63 Re: LIOC not moving on Sat Sep 17, 2016 2:03 pm

thala


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Good times ahead for lioc I believe with this prospect

64 Re: LIOC not moving on Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:54 pm

thala


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic

65 Re: LIOC not moving on Tue Sep 20, 2016 10:12 am

thala


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
http://www.adaderana.lk/news/37027/cpc-faces-rs-2-billion-monthly-losses-after-excise-duty-hike-minister


CPC faces Rs. 2 billion monthly losses after excise duty hike - Minister
September 20, 2016  07:55 am
           

Sri Lanka’s state-owned Ceylon Petroleum Corporation will incur a loss of about two billion rupees ($13.78 million) per month after the government raised excise duty last month, the petroleum resources minister said on Monday.

 

The finance ministry, which is under pressure from the IMF to increase revenue, raised the excise duty on diesel by 10 rupees to 13 rupees with effect from Aug. 20 without increasing diesel’s retail price.

 

Conditions imposed by the International Monetary Fund in return for a $1.5 billion, 36-month loan require reforms of the state sector which has put the government under pressure to seek new sources of revenue.

 

“It will be close to 2,000 million rupees,” the minister, Chandima Weerakkody, told a Foreign Correspondents’ Association forum in Colombo, referring to monthly losses that the state-owned petroleum corporation (CPC) faces.

 

“There is a slight profit for diesel, but for petrol anyway there is a loss. With this excise duty, our production at refinery is also taxed.”

 

Sri Lanka’s only 50,000 barrel-per-day refinery also supplies fuel in addition to imported refined fuel.

 

Weerakkody, however, said the CPC earned a profit after tax of 46.5 billion rupees in the first half of the year against a loss of 13.2 billion rupees in the first 11 months of last year.

 

He said a price formula has been considered for fuel prices in line with the world market prices, but it has not been implemented.

 

Diesel has been at 95 rupees since the fuel price was last revised down in January 2015.

 

The CPC and Lanka Indian Oil Corporation, a subsidiary of Indian Oil Corporation, are the only two firms selling diesel in the island nation.

 

Prices are set following talks between the companies and the government.

 

The Colombo based JB Securities, a leading stock broker, last week said in a note to investors that the tax changes were a step in the right direction but the way it was imposed could have an impact on the companies profitability.

 

“What is dumbfounding is good tax policy has been totally negated by not passing on these taxes to the consumer, it has been left to the two oil companies to bear ... the loss per litre for CPC will be much higher due to its inefficiency so the profits they have made in the year to date will be wiped out by the end of the year,” Reuters reports.

66 Re: LIOC not moving on Tue Sep 20, 2016 10:45 pm

Truestory


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
I have a little doubt on duty on diesel as mentioned by JB securities. can someone confirm the figure of 32/-

As far as I know ex. duty on diesel was increased only in Aug by 10/- to 13/-. There was a talk in July to increase the ex. duty but was it really increased in July ??
If the actual ex. duty and customs duty ads upto only 22/- for diesel then LIOC will have at least over a billion profit for the 2nd qtr and slightly higher profit in the 3rd qtr.(crude prices are little cheaper)
This will ad upto about 8/- EPS for 3 qtrs.

Have a strong feeling that formula will come in Jan'17 and LIOC should make about 2 bln in the 4th qtr. This will ad upto EPS of appr 12/-
In this case NAS will move upto 46/- by the end of 2016/17.

If the formula comes in jan it will be a smooth sailing for LIOC.

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