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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Stock Screening - Identified Valuation Gaps

Stock Screening - Identified Valuation Gaps

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1Stock Screening - Identified Valuation Gaps Empty Stock Screening - Identified Valuation Gaps on Wed Aug 17, 2016 8:34 am

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
Hi All,
The below is my calculation and identification of Financial sector stocks trading at a discount to the respective industries/market. I could see lot of investment grade counters in terms of valuation gaps. Hope this will be useful for you to take some logical decisions. The numbers are based on latest published financials and PE is calculated based on 4Q trailing EPS of each company. Gaps highlighted in dark green are trading at the deepest discount prices whereas green highlighted ones also have mid term price appreciation potentials.

For me CDB & LB Finance are super. Also stocks like Vallible Financee, Sampath, Alliance Finance, LOLC, Nation Lanka & Peoples Leasing have great potential for price gains.
Thanks
As at 16th Aug 16PEDiscount/(Primium)
 to Industry
Discount/(Premium)
 to Market
Abans Finance20.6-158%-51%
AIA Insurance23.3-191%-71%
Alliance Finance5.926%57%
Amana Bank31.9-299%-135%
Arpico Finance4.346%68%
Asia Asset6.914%49%
Asian Alliance9.4-18%31%
Bimputh Finance10.9-36%20%
Central Finance12.1-51%11%
Ceylinco Insurance8.6-8%37%
Chilaw Finance19.9-149%-46%
CDB4.248%69%
Commercial Bank9.3-16%32%
DFCC13.3-66%2%
First Capital43.7-446%-221%
HNB7.210%47%
HDFC9.3-16%32%
HNB Assurance14.4-80%-6%
Janashakthi6.519%52%
LB Finance4.544%67%
LOLC Financ6.124%55%
LOLC 4.939%64%
Lanka Ventures9.9-24%27%
MBSL15.2-90%-12%
Nation Lanka Finance5.531%60%
NDB8.5-6%38%
Nations Trust713%49%
Pan Asia6.618%51%
People's Leasing6.420%53%
Sampath Bank5.729%58%
SDB7.83%43%
Seylan Bank8.5-6%38%
Singer Finance80%41%
SMB Leasing21.8-173%-60%
Softlogic Finance6.223%54%
SFS3.754%73%
Union Assurance7.210%47%
Union Bank47.7-496%-251%
Vallible Finance4.840%65%

TARGET


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Excellent work EC. Good lesson for the fortunetellers.

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Can you give one example how you calculate

For example  sayhow you caculate  PLC

20% and 49%

Thanks

Ravindu Kumarasiri

Ravindu Kumarasiri
Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Its better if you could teach us all how to do those stuff. At least a good place to learn.
Thanks..

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@EC
Just for clarification

Let us assume NDB price is Rs.100. Discount to market shows 38%. Does it mean that NDB would have been traded at around Rs.138 level?

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
EC has done a huge work.

I think he did the calculations like this:

By reverse engineering Razz  some of the output, I got Market PER  as 13.7 approx.

If we go to last line, it says
Valibel Finance is trading at a PER of 4.8

Note: to get PER , you have to :  trading price / Earning per share EPS  
 62/12.5 = 4.8 (VFIN EPS is 12.5 and Trading @ 62)
(output slightly differ due to varying trading price at the time of calculation)


As he has taken market PER as 13.7 ,  to get the discount ratio  
(13.7 - 4.8 )/13.7 = 65%

i.e VFIN is trading @ 65% discount to market PER . This 65% is there in that table in green.

This analysis is based on PER to Mkt PER .

To answer worthiness's question ,
using above figures


If we took this 65% directly to get the prices , VFIN mkt price of 62/-
62.00 x 1.65 = 102.30  (or in NDB 100 x 1.38 = 138)
 is not correct.

As mkt 'PER' is 13.7 and EPS of VFIN is 12.5,
we have to multiply (12.5 x 13.7 ) and get  'should be price' = 171.25
To match market PER (13.7) VFIN should trade @ 171.00 !  and not 102.

If we compare 'should be' price 171 and current price 62 we get the same discount ratio

(171 - 62 ) / 171 = 65%  

( output differs due to raw inputs)

---
sorry if I did an error somewhere

Other column is same , sector PER is considered instead of Market PER.
We should remember to see the sector PER always.

ranferdi

ranferdi
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

EC has done a huge work.

I think he did theservice culations like this:

By reverse engineering Razz   some of the output, I got Market PER  as 13.7 approx.

If we go to last line, it says
Valibel Finance is trading at a PER of 4.8

Note: to get PER , you have to :  trading price / Earning per share EPS  
 62/12.5 = 4.8 ([size=37]VFIN EPS is 12.5 and Trading @ 62[/size])
(output slightly differ due to varying trading price at the time of calculation)


As he has taken market PER as 13.7 ,  to get the discount ratio  
(13.7 - 4.8 )/13.7 = 65%

i.e VFIN is trading @ 65% discount to market PER . This 65% is there in that table in green.

This analysis is based on PER to Mkt PER .

To answer worthiness's question ,
using above figures


If we took this 65% directly to get the prices , VFIN mkt price of 62/-
62.00 x 1.65 = 102.30  (or in NDB 100 x 1.38 = 138)
 is not correct.

As mkt 'PER' is 13.7 and EPS of VFIN is 12.5,
we have to multiply (12.5 x 13.7 ) and get  'should be price' = 171.25
To match market PER (13.7) VFIN should trade @ 171.00 !  and not 102.

If we compare 'should be' price 171 and current price 62 we get the same discount ratio

(171 - 62 ) / 171 = 65%  

( output differs due to raw inputs)

---
sorry if I did an error somewhere

Other column is same , sector PER is considered instead of Market PER.
We should remember to see the sector PER always.
I wonder how you find time for so much social service.. Appreciate the Good works.

http://::::THIS EMAIL DOESNT WORK.. PLEASE CONTACT ME ON FB ACCO

TARGET


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks Chinwi. Simple maths and good step by step explanation.

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
Hi all,
Nice to see that you all are interesting on this. It takes a bit of time yet very simple to understand.

As Chinwi correctly pointed out this is based on PE multiple valuation. The main ingredients for this analysis are 4Q EPS, sector PE and Market PE. sector PEs are important for 2nd tier stocks because they have little power to dictate terms on market PE. However for big stocks such as COMB the market PE should be the yardstick for the same reason.

You need to add up the earnings of the last 4 quarters of a company and derive the indicative EPS by dividing the number of shares in issue. By using this method we can put all companies into the same scale as the cyclical effect of some businesses too can be incorporated into the valuations.

Then you divide the closing market price by  4Q trailing EPS to get the  PE ratio.

Next step is to compare that with the industry and/or market PE.

How to interpret this is as follows. If we take NDB you can divide the price (165) by the PE (8.5x) then multiple by market PE (13.6x). This will show you a price of Rs264 which means current price is @ a discount of 38% or the company trading only at 62% of its market comparable value.

I believe this method can pop-up under valued counters very easily.

Thanks

TARGET


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
EC as your chart sfs PE is 3.7. Is it correct?

sanjulanka


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks  EC and Chinwi........ I love you I love you I love you Basketball Basketball Basketball

Harry82

Harry82
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
EquityChamp,


Supper
Thanks  EquityChamp

lakymahesh


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
can any1 help me finding me the latest report of  - CAL's Key Performance Indicators

i have the this - "1466161066_Key Performance Indicators   - 17.06.2016" nothing after that cant find any at the research category as well. thank you.Big Help.Pls . .. . Sad Shocked

14Stock Screening - Identified Valuation Gaps Empty Re: Stock Screening - Identified Valuation Gaps on Wed Aug 17, 2016 10:18 pm

stocksira

stocksira
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Super work EC .......

15Stock Screening - Identified Valuation Gaps Empty Re: Stock Screening - Identified Valuation Gaps on Wed Aug 17, 2016 10:33 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Thanks. EC...

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
Section 2 for your information. Beverage , Food & Tobacco. Just look at the upside potential of Bairaha, Three Acre Farms, Tea services & Raigam Salterns. Distilleries and Keells Food products too having good potential in medium to long term.

Thank you.
As at 19th Aug 16PEDiscount/(Primium)
 to Industry
Discount/(Premium)
 to Market
BAIRAHA FARMS 4.971%64%
CARGILL19.7-16%-45%
CEYLON TOBACCO (+) 15.59%-14%
Cold Stores19.3-14%-42%
CONVENIENCE FOOD 14.117%-4%
DISTILLERIES12.626%7%
HARISCHANDRA22.7-34%-67%
KEELLS FOOD 13.123%4%
Lion Brewery29.5-74%-117%
LMF38.5-126%-183%
NESTLE29.9-76%-120%
RAIGAM SALTERNS8.749%36%
RENUKA AGRI 571%63%
RENUKA FOODS11.532%15%
Tea services8.649%37%
THREE ACRE FARMS 4.574%67%

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
Based in my calculation ALLI price should drop to 850 levels because of the coming right issue . it should not trade above 850 levels.
CDB,SFIN are so attractive based on dividends and earnings.CCS looks over value that's the reason for foreigners sell.

TARGET


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@TARGET wrote:EC as your chart sfs PE is 3.7. Is it correct?
?????

19Stock Screening - Identified Valuation Gaps Empty Re: Stock Screening - Identified Valuation Gaps on Fri Aug 19, 2016 10:31 pm

reader


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Thank lot for both Equity Champ & Chinwi.. Superb....

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
@TARGET wrote:
@TARGET wrote:EC as your chart sfs PE is 3.7. Is it correct?
?????

It is not right. SFS not have a PE ratio as its 4Q EPS is zero. Also some other stocks of the finance sector have incorrect valuations. I will publish the amended list in my next submission.
Thanks

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals stocks for your information, the third batch. CIC and Haycarb have discounted values now.
As at 19th Aug 16PEDiscount/(Primium)
 to Industry
Discount/(Premium)
 to Market
CIC7.031%49%
CHEMANEX14.2-39%-4%
HAYCARB6.833%50%
MULLERS11.8-16%13%
UNION CHEMICALS8.814%35%

Eng Krishantha

Eng Krishantha
Expert
Expert
@EquityChamp wrote:Hi All,
The below is my calculation and identification of Financial sector stocks trading at a discount to the respective industries/market. I could see lot of investment grade counters in terms of valuation gaps. Hope this will be useful for you to take some logical decisions. The numbers are based on latest published financials and PE is calculated based on 4Q trailing EPS of each company. Gaps highlighted in dark green are trading at the deepest discount prices whereas green highlighted ones also have mid term price appreciation potentials.

For me CDB & LB Finance are super. Also stocks like Vallible Financee, Sampath, Alliance Finance, LOLC, Nation Lanka & Peoples Leasing have great potential for price gains.
Thanks
 
As at 16th Aug 16PEDiscount/(Primium)
 to Industry
Discount/(Premium)
 to Market
Abans Finance20.6-158%-51%
AIA Insurance23.3-191%-71%
Alliance Finance5.926%57%
Amana Bank31.9-299%-135%
Arpico Finance4.346%68%
Asia Asset6.914%49%
Asian Alliance9.4-18%31%
Bimputh Finance10.9-36%20%
Central Finance12.1-51%11%
Ceylinco Insurance8.6-8%37%
Chilaw Finance19.9-149%-46%
CDB4.248%69%
Commercial Bank9.3-16%32%
DFCC13.3-66%2%
First Capital43.7-446%-221%
HNB7.210%47%
HDFC9.3-16%32%
HNB Assurance14.4-80%-6%
Janashakthi6.519%52%
LB Finance4.544%67%
LOLC Financ6.124%55%
LOLC 4.939%64%
Lanka Ventures9.9-24%27%
MBSL15.2-90%-12%
Nation Lanka Finance5.531%60%
NDB8.5-6%38%
Nations Trust713%49%
Pan Asia6.618%51%
People's Leasing6.420%53%
Sampath Bank5.729%58%
SDB7.83%43%
Seylan Bank8.5-6%38%
Singer Finance80%41%
SMB Leasing21.8-173%-60%
Softlogic Finance6.223%54%
SFS3.754%73%
Union Assurance7.210%47%
Union Bank47.7-496%-251%
Vallible Finance4.840%65%

Thank you very much for both Equity Champ & Chinwi, much appreciate your effort.
@ EC, if you’re not busy,
Can I have your comment about my post which is mentioned below, please??

http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t52435-crl-future-expectation#323026

Thank you.

Chinwi

Chinwi
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
EC did and continuing the hard work. flower

I did small contribution and do not deserve -and never expected- that much applaud   I love you

 thanks all.

chinthaka22


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Thank you for this @EquityChamp , and thank you@chinwi for clarifying the doubts.
its users like you who , amidst the number of spammers and chums who promote crappy stocks make this forum interesting and worth the log-on

25Stock Screening - Identified Valuation Gaps Empty Re: Stock Screening - Identified Valuation Gaps on Sat Aug 20, 2016 10:42 pm

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
@ EK, all I have to say is that you have done a worthy mid term investment. I am sure you can have a vey good night sleep for the coming few quarters. cheers

26Stock Screening - Identified Valuation Gaps Empty Re: Stock Screening - Identified Valuation Gaps on Sat Aug 20, 2016 11:44 pm

Eng Krishantha

Eng Krishantha
Expert
Expert
@EquityChamp wrote:@ EK, all I have to say is that you have done a worthy mid term investment. I am sure you can have a vey good night sleep for the coming few quarters. cheers

Thanks EC.. 
cheers cheers cheers

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
Set no 04 for you. Diversified stocks in CSE. Look at the discounts of Hayleys, Richard Pieris & Vallibel One; massive discounts. Out of them for some reason Vallibel didn't move for a long time now.

As at 22nd Aug 16PEDiscount/(Premium)
 to Industry
Discount/(Premium)
 to Market
Aitken Spence15.56%-14%
Carsons35.5-115%-161%
CT Holdings13.319%2%
Expolanka12.723%7%
Hayleys7.455%46%
Hemas18.4-12%-35%
JKH1321%4%
Richard Pieris8.449%38%
Softlogic15.84%-16%
Sunshine12.624%7%
VALLIBEL ONE5.268%62%

Thanks

28Stock Screening - Identified Valuation Gaps Empty Re: Stock Screening - Identified Valuation Gaps on Mon Aug 29, 2016 10:47 pm

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
Set No5 for you. Why CHL & MGT trading @ this much of discount when others are trading for such high premiums.
As at 29TH Aug 16PEDiscount/(Primium)
 to Industry
Discount/(Premium)
 to Market
CEYLON LEATHER 19.722%-46%
HAYLEYS FABRIC14.642%-8%
ODEL PLC22.511%-67%
As at 29TH Aug 16PEDiscount/(Primium)
 to Industry
Discount/(Premium)
 to Market
ASIRI30.1-103%-123%
ASIRI SURGICAL19-28%-41%
DURDANS5.761%58%
NAWALOKA33.4-126%-147%
LANKA HOSPITALS17.4-18%-29%

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
Set No 6 for you, Hotels. I can see lot of counters trading at fairly discounted prices including Dolphin Hotels, Renuka City, Pegasus, Keells Hotels, Fortress Resorts and Hotel Sigiriya. Also some stocks are their which are overpriced as well.
As at 29th Aug 16PEDiscount/(Primium)
 to Industry
Discount/(Premium)
 to Market
Aitken Spence Hotel Holdings17.170%-27%
Amaya Leisure12.977%4%
AHOT Properties14.075%-4%
Hotel Corporation67.5-20%-400%
Dolphin Hotels6.788%50%
Galadari19.066%-41%
Hotel Sigiriya8.984%34%
Hunas Falls64.8-15%-380%
Keells Hotels10.382%24%
Mahawali Reach16.870%-24%
Renuka City Hotels5.191%62%
Serandib Hotels16.571%-22%
Sigiriya Village11.180%18%
Tangerine12.977%4%
Kandy Hotels22.660%-67%
Kingsbury13.876%-2%
Nuwara Eliya Hotels10.981%19%
Trans Asia42.425%-214%
Bansei67.3-19%-399%
Pegasus10.482%23%
Ramboda Falls15.273%-13%
Royal Palms12.777%6%
Lighthouse17.070%-26%
Fortress Resorts9.084%33%
Citrus Hikkaduwa17.569%-30%
Thanks

kadik


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanks EC

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
Set No 07 for you. Renuka Holdings & Lee Hedges are trading at huge discounts.
As at 30TH Aug 16PEDiscount/(Premium)
 to Market
E Channelling168.0-1146%
As at 30TH Aug 16PEDiscount/(Premium)
 to Market
Ascot14.2-5%
Ceylon Guardian25.4-88%
Ceylon Investment23.8-77%
Renuka Holdings5.559%
Guardian Capital38.4-185%
Lee Hedges10.423%
Thanks

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
I am wondering why people are following E channelling.

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
Set No 8 for you. Look at the discounts of CT Land, Cargo Boat, CLND, etc.
As at 31st Aug 16PEDiscount/(Primium)
 to Industry
Discount/(Premium)
 to Market
CT Land7.221%46%
Cargo Boat6.825%49%
Colombo Land2.968%78%
Commercial Deelopment4.155%70%
On'Ally1.880%87%
Overseas Reality6.924%49%
PDL14.6-60%-9%
Serendib Land38.1-319%-183%
Seylan Developments10.6-16%21%
York Arcade11.9-31%12%

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
Set No 9 for you. You can find stocks with good discounts to the respective industry and market such as Access, Abans, ACL Plastics and Grain Elevators. ACL and CIND too are trading at great discounts compared to some of heavy active stocks nowadays which are really expensive and bloated by many speculative factors.
As at 31st Aug 16PEDiscount/(Premium)
 to Industry
Discount/(Premium)
 to Market
Access Eng11.275%17%
As at 31st Aug 16PEDiscount/(Premium)
 to Industry
Discount/(Premium)
 to Market
Abans4.847%64%
ACL Cables6.726%50%
ACL Plastics4.154%70%
Alufab19.7-119%-46%
Central Industries5.836%57%
Grain Elevators4.550%67%
Chevron11.8-31%12%
Dipped Products43.3-381%-222%
Hayleys Fibre19.7-119%-46%
Dankotuwa Porcelain33.3-270%-148%

Thanks

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
Let me know if anyone got some benefit from this thread. Or comment whether this can be used as a tool to screen value investments.

Thanks

36Stock Screening - Identified Valuation Gaps Empty Re: Stock Screening - Identified Valuation Gaps on Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:53 am

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
ASCO is being pushed. Trading at a premium to market alredy.

37Stock Screening - Identified Valuation Gaps Empty Re: Stock Screening - Identified Valuation Gaps on Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:57 pm

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Moderator
Though no one have commented I am publishing the 10th set as well. I can see lot of shares are trading at  discount including Kelani Cables, Kelani Tyres, Lanka Ceramic, Lanka Walltile, Lanka Tiles and Regnis.
As at 1st Sep 16PEDiscount/(Premium)
 to Industry
Discount/(Premium)
 to Market
Kelani Cables5.934%56%
Kelani Tyres6.528%52%
Lanka Aluminium10.2-13%24%
Lanka Ceramic5.341%61%
Lanka Tiles5.242%61%
Lanka Walltiles4.649%66%
Laxapana10.1-12%25%
Primal Glass8.29%39%
Printcare13.4-49%0%
Regnis4.550%67%

Thanks

38Stock Screening - Identified Valuation Gaps Empty Re: Stock Screening - Identified Valuation Gaps on Sat Sep 03, 2016 10:57 am

Cf1976


Stock Trader
Thanks Equity Champ, superb work

prasa2004


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Our appreciation for your good work. Can i request to have the Market Price column (for this computation) then can track/keep it current (atleast till next results) by comparing current MPs. If you can give in xls with formula then lovely as then just insert with MP can get the %.

pfxavier


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Highly appreciated your effort. I have similar kind of xls but It only has limited stock I follow. I know how hard to maintain such a big list.  Thanks EC

I have added more info in the xlx

EPS P/E  NASV  PBV(x)  DIV YEILD %   51 WL  52 WH  SEC P/E 

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