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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Commercial Credit & Finance PLC

Commercial Credit & Finance PLC

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1 Commercial Credit & Finance PLC on Tue Aug 30, 2016 6:46 pm

TIRAN712

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
First topic message reminder :

FORM TOMORROW WITHIN 3 DAYS I,L BUY 100000 SHARES ,,MY TARGET PRICE WELL ABOVE 70 COCR N  GOLD MINE Arrow Arrow Arrow Arrow Arrow Arrow Arrow Arrow Arrow


121 Re: Commercial Credit & Finance PLC on Mon Oct 10, 2016 2:59 pm

cse.newbie


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@Gainer wrote:COCR everything clear now should go up , Now trading at strong support levels


How much did you buy today at 65? Wink


No hard feelings brother, hope you will be a winner soon when COCR go up to 80.00

122 Re: Commercial Credit & Finance PLC on Fri Nov 11, 2016 9:24 pm

EquityChamp


Moderator
@EquityChamp wrote:For the benefit of all the investors I am publishing a brief financial forecast on Commercial Credit. This is based on last two years financials and Q1 16/17 reported numbers.
 
Rs Mn2014/15 FY2015/16 FYQ1 16/172016/17 FY (E)
Net II         7,255       10,225      3,003             12,270
Other operating income         1,030         1,346         219               1,615
Total operating income         8,285       11,571      3,222             13,885
Impairment & other charges         1,426         2,936         663               2,652
Net operating income         6,859         8,635      2,559             11,233
Total operating expenses         3,851         5,124      1,488               6,303
Profit before VAT         3,008         3,511      1,071               4,931
VAT on financial services            372            491         158                  690
PBT         2,636         3,020         913               4,240
Tax            442            691         241               1,103
PAT         2,194         2,329         672               3,138
EPS             7.5             7.3          2.1                   9.9
Price           50.4           42.5                  68.1
PE ratio             6.8             5.8                    6.9
Fuure valuation                    91.8

As per the above summary, COCR is estimated to report a PAT of Rs3.1 Bn for FY 2016/17 which is an increase of 35% YoY. Only the main issue I can see is a higher value of impairment and security losses that was doubled in 2015/16. Yet I am optimistic that the number will be slightly less this time but depends on the quality of the loan book. Other than that the rest of the numbers seems encouraging for a mid term investor.

Based on the forecasted earning COCR is trading at a forward PE multiple of 6.9x yet to a discount compared to sector PE. If we value the company using historical, sector and market PEs then the applicable price range based on 2016/17 projected earnings to be 62.2-133.2. The average comes to 91.8/-.

Also note that GL has expressed their confidence of COCR making a PAT of Rs3.2 Bn for this year and my forecast comes very close o that.

In conclusion, though the NAV 2/3 below the current price, the current COCR price of 68/- seems to be carrying a good intrinsic value for mid term investor who can hold for couple of months. So my recommendation is that prudent investors should try to buy this stock around current price levels or below should the stock falls further today and tomorrow.

Good luck

As illustrated with this analysis COCR is well on course to earn over 3Bn profit for this year. Q2 PAT of 693Mn and 1H 1367Bn. According to the valuations and growth projections 58/- is about 40% discount to its intrinsic value. A good AA+ investment grade stock when the market is so depressed.

Thanks

123 Re: Commercial Credit & Finance PLC on Fri Nov 11, 2016 10:59 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@EquityChamp wrote:
@EquityChamp wrote:For the benefit of all the investors I am publishing a brief financial forecast on Commercial Credit. This is based on last two years financials and Q1 16/17 reported numbers.
 
Rs Mn2014/15 FY2015/16 FYQ1 16/172016/17 FY (E)
Net II         7,255       10,225      3,003             12,270
Other operating income         1,030         1,346         219               1,615
Total operating income         8,285       11,571      3,222             13,885
Impairment & other charges         1,426         2,936         663               2,652
Net operating income         6,859         8,635      2,559             11,233
Total operating expenses         3,851         5,124      1,488               6,303
Profit before VAT         3,008         3,511      1,071               4,931
VAT on financial services            372            491         158                  690
PBT         2,636         3,020         913               4,240
Tax            442            691         241               1,103
PAT         2,194         2,329         672               3,138
EPS             7.5             7.3          2.1                   9.9
Price           50.4           42.5                  68.1
PE ratio             6.8             5.8                    6.9
Fuure valuation                    91.8

As per the above summary, COCR is estimated to report a PAT of Rs3.1 Bn for FY 2016/17 which is an increase of 35% YoY. Only the main issue I can see is a higher value of impairment and security losses that was doubled in 2015/16. Yet I am optimistic that the number will be slightly less this time but depends on the quality of the loan book. Other than that the rest of the numbers seems encouraging for a mid term investor.

Based on the forecasted earning COCR is trading at a forward PE multiple of 6.9x yet to a discount compared to sector PE. If we value the company using historical, sector and market PEs then the applicable price range based on 2016/17 projected earnings to be 62.2-133.2. The average comes to 91.8/-.

Also note that GL has expressed their confidence of COCR making a PAT of Rs3.2 Bn for this year and my forecast comes very close o that.

In conclusion, though the NAV 2/3 below the current price, the current COCR price of 68/- seems to be carrying a good intrinsic value for mid term investor who can hold for couple of months. So my recommendation is that prudent investors should try to buy this stock around current price levels or below should the stock falls further today and tomorrow.

Good luck

As illustrated with this analysis COCR is well on course to earn over 3Bn profit for this year. Q2 PAT of 693Mn and 1H 1367Bn. According to the valuations and growth projections 58/- is about 40% discount to its intrinsic value. A good AA+ investment grade stock when the market is so depressed.

Thanks


why director wife sold around 70.  I think that is dirty game.

or maybe some "dodu case"

deal will happen. now Group Lease has issue "Convertible debenture " to buy COCR.

clearly mention it on document. please go through this link and check. from this point selling pressure will go down. buying pressure will build.

http://www.set.or.th/set/newsdetails.do?newsId=14778709831250&language=en&country=US

124 Re: Commercial Credit & Finance PLC on Sun Nov 13, 2016 3:08 pm

anges


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
if its a gold mine better start digging

125 Re: Commercial Credit & Finance PLC on Mon Nov 14, 2016 11:06 am

PrasannaMani


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
THAI GL - EGM will be held on 06/12/2016 .


 30/09/2016 Quarter ended Financials of COCR

https://cdn.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/1063_1478859542056.pdf



Last edited by PrasannaMani on Mon Nov 14, 2016 11:13 am; edited 1 time in total

126 Re: Commercial Credit & Finance PLC on Mon Nov 14, 2016 11:10 am

PrasannaMani

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@stockback wrote:
@EquityChamp wrote:
@EquityChamp wrote:For the benefit of all the investors I am publishing a brief financial forecast on Commercial Credit. This is based on last two years financials and Q1 16/17 reported numbers.
 
Rs Mn2014/15 FY2015/16 FYQ1 16/172016/17 FY (E)
Net II         7,255       10,225      3,003             12,270
Other operating income         1,030         1,346         219               1,615
Total operating income         8,285       11,571      3,222             13,885
Impairment & other charges         1,426         2,936         663               2,652
Net operating income         6,859         8,635      2,559             11,233
Total operating expenses         3,851         5,124      1,488               6,303
Profit before VAT         3,008         3,511      1,071               4,931
VAT on financial services            372            491         158                  690
PBT         2,636         3,020         913               4,240
Tax            442            691         241               1,103
PAT         2,194         2,329         672               3,138
EPS             7.5             7.3          2.1                   9.9
Price           50.4           42.5                  68.1
PE ratio             6.8             5.8                    6.9
Fuure valuation                    91.8

As per the above summary, COCR is estimated to report a PAT of Rs3.1 Bn for FY 2016/17 which is an increase of 35% YoY. Only the main issue I can see is a higher value of impairment and security losses that was doubled in 2015/16. Yet I am optimistic that the number will be slightly less this time but depends on the quality of the loan book. Other than that the rest of the numbers seems encouraging for a mid term investor.

Based on the forecasted earning COCR is trading at a forward PE multiple of 6.9x yet to a discount compared to sector PE. If we value the company using historical, sector and market PEs then the applicable price range based on 2016/17 projected earnings to be 62.2-133.2. The average comes to 91.8/-.

Also note that GL has expressed their confidence of COCR making a PAT of Rs3.2 Bn for this year and my forecast comes very close o that.

In conclusion, though the NAV 2/3 below the current price, the current COCR price of 68/- seems to be carrying a good intrinsic value for mid term investor who can hold for couple of months. So my recommendation is that prudent investors should try to buy this stock around current price levels or below should the stock falls further today and tomorrow.

Good luck

As illustrated with this analysis COCR is well on course to earn over 3Bn profit for this year. Q2 PAT of 693Mn and 1H 1367Bn. According to the valuations and growth projections 58/- is about 40% discount to its intrinsic value. A good AA+ investment grade stock when the market is so depressed.

Thanks


why director wife sold around 70.  I think that is dirty game.

or maybe some "dodu case"

deal will happen. now Group Lease has issue "Convertible debenture " to buy COCR.

clearly mention it on document. please go through this link and check. from this point selling pressure will go down. buying pressure will build.

http://www.set.or.th/set/newsdetails.do?newsId=14778709831250&language=en&country=US

In that link pls refer page 27...

1) Date, Month and Year of the Issuance and Offering of CDs
The Company is going to enter into the Investment Agreement for the Issuance and Offering of
CDs to Creation SL after the approval by the Board of Directors of the Company (the
Investment Agreement”), under which the Company will issue and offer the CDs to Creation SL
after approval has been granted by the Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders No.
2/2016 to be held on 6 December 2016 and after all the conditions precedent in the Investment
Agreement have been fulfilled, including the approval for the Issuance and Offering of CDs is
granted by the SEC. The transaction is expected to be completed within March 2017...




Not that sooner .......isn't it?

127 Re: Commercial Credit & Finance PLC on Mon Nov 14, 2016 11:14 am

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@PrasannaMani wrote:
@stockback wrote:
@EquityChamp wrote:
@EquityChamp wrote:For the benefit of all the investors I am publishing a brief financial forecast on Commercial Credit. This is based on last two years financials and Q1 16/17 reported numbers.
 
Rs Mn2014/15 FY2015/16 FYQ1 16/172016/17 FY (E)
Net II         7,255       10,225      3,003             12,270
Other operating income         1,030         1,346         219               1,615
Total operating income         8,285       11,571      3,222             13,885
Impairment & other charges         1,426         2,936         663               2,652
Net operating income         6,859         8,635      2,559             11,233
Total operating expenses         3,851         5,124      1,488               6,303
Profit before VAT         3,008         3,511      1,071               4,931
VAT on financial services            372            491         158                  690
PBT         2,636         3,020         913               4,240
Tax            442            691         241               1,103
PAT         2,194         2,329         672               3,138
EPS             7.5             7.3          2.1                   9.9
Price           50.4           42.5                  68.1
PE ratio             6.8             5.8                    6.9
Fuure valuation                    91.8

As per the above summary, COCR is estimated to report a PAT of Rs3.1 Bn for FY 2016/17 which is an increase of 35% YoY. Only the main issue I can see is a higher value of impairment and security losses that was doubled in 2015/16. Yet I am optimistic that the number will be slightly less this time but depends on the quality of the loan book. Other than that the rest of the numbers seems encouraging for a mid term investor.

Based on the forecasted earning COCR is trading at a forward PE multiple of 6.9x yet to a discount compared to sector PE. If we value the company using historical, sector and market PEs then the applicable price range based on 2016/17 projected earnings to be 62.2-133.2. The average comes to 91.8/-.

Also note that GL has expressed their confidence of COCR making a PAT of Rs3.2 Bn for this year and my forecast comes very close o that.

In conclusion, though the NAV 2/3 below the current price, the current COCR price of 68/- seems to be carrying a good intrinsic value for mid term investor who can hold for couple of months. So my recommendation is that prudent investors should try to buy this stock around current price levels or below should the stock falls further today and tomorrow.

Good luck

As illustrated with this analysis COCR is well on course to earn over 3Bn profit for this year. Q2 PAT of 693Mn and 1H 1367Bn. According to the valuations and growth projections 58/- is about 40% discount to its intrinsic value. A good AA+ investment grade stock when the market is so depressed.

Thanks


why director wife sold around 70.  I think that is dirty game.

or maybe some "dodu case"

deal will happen. now Group Lease has issue "Convertible debenture " to buy COCR.

clearly mention it on document. please go through this link and check. from this point selling pressure will go down. buying pressure will build.

http://www.set.or.th/set/newsdetails.do?newsId=14778709831250&language=en&country=US

In that link pls refer page 27...

1) Date, Month and Year of the Issuance and Offering of CDs
The Company is going to enter into the Investment Agreement for the Issuance and Offering of
CDs to Creation SL after the approval by the Board of Directors of the Company (the
Investment Agreement”), under which the Company will issue and offer the CDs to Creation SL
after approval has been granted by the Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders No.
2/2016 to be held on 6 December 2016 and after all the conditions precedent in the Investment
Agreement have been fulfilled, including the approval for the Issuance and Offering of CDs is
granted by the SEC. The transaction is expected to be completed within March 2017...




Not that sooner .......isn't it?

March 2017- kiyala koheda thiyenne.

Doc saying early 2017- in that case transaction should be January- February 2017

128 Re: Commercial Credit & Finance PLC on Mon Nov 14, 2016 1:02 pm

PrasannaMani

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@stockback wrote:
@PrasannaMani wrote:
@stockback wrote:
@EquityChamp wrote:
@EquityChamp wrote:For the benefit of all the investors I am publishing a brief financial forecast on Commercial Credit. This is based on last two years financials and Q1 16/17 reported numbers.
 
Rs Mn2014/15 FY2015/16 FYQ1 16/172016/17 FY (E)
Net II         7,255       10,225      3,003             12,270
Other operating income         1,030         1,346         219               1,615
Total operating income         8,285       11,571      3,222             13,885
Impairment & other charges         1,426         2,936         663               2,652
Net operating income         6,859         8,635      2,559             11,233
Total operating expenses         3,851         5,124      1,488               6,303
Profit before VAT         3,008         3,511      1,071               4,931
VAT on financial services            372            491         158                  690
PBT         2,636         3,020         913               4,240
Tax            442            691         241               1,103
PAT         2,194         2,329         672               3,138
EPS             7.5             7.3          2.1                   9.9
Price           50.4           42.5                  68.1
PE ratio             6.8             5.8                    6.9
Fuure valuation                    91.8

As per the above summary, COCR is estimated to report a PAT of Rs3.1 Bn for FY 2016/17 which is an increase of 35% YoY. Only the main issue I can see is a higher value of impairment and security losses that was doubled in 2015/16. Yet I am optimistic that the number will be slightly less this time but depends on the quality of the loan book. Other than that the rest of the numbers seems encouraging for a mid term investor.

Based on the forecasted earning COCR is trading at a forward PE multiple of 6.9x yet to a discount compared to sector PE. If we value the company using historical, sector and market PEs then the applicable price range based on 2016/17 projected earnings to be 62.2-133.2. The average comes to 91.8/-.

Also note that GL has expressed their confidence of COCR making a PAT of Rs3.2 Bn for this year and my forecast comes very close o that.

In conclusion, though the NAV 2/3 below the current price, the current COCR price of 68/- seems to be carrying a good intrinsic value for mid term investor who can hold for couple of months. So my recommendation is that prudent investors should try to buy this stock around current price levels or below should the stock falls further today and tomorrow.

Good luck

As illustrated with this analysis COCR is well on course to earn over 3Bn profit for this year. Q2 PAT of 693Mn and 1H 1367Bn. According to the valuations and growth projections 58/- is about 40% discount to its intrinsic value. A good AA+ investment grade stock when the market is so depressed.

Thanks


why director wife sold around 70.  I think that is dirty game.

or maybe some "dodu case"

deal will happen. now Group Lease has issue "Convertible debenture " to buy COCR.

clearly mention it on document. please go through this link and check. from this point selling pressure will go down. buying pressure will build.

http://www.set.or.th/set/newsdetails.do?newsId=14778709831250&language=en&country=US

In that link pls refer page 27...

1) Date, Month and Year of the Issuance and Offering of CDs
The Company is going to enter into the Investment Agreement for the Issuance and Offering of
CDs to Creation SL after the approval by the Board of Directors of the Company (the
Investment Agreement”), under which the Company will issue and offer the CDs to Creation SL
after approval has been granted by the Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders No.
2/2016 to be held on 6 December 2016 and after all the conditions precedent in the Investment
Agreement have been fulfilled, including the approval for the Issuance and Offering of CDs is
granted by the SEC. The transaction is expected to be completed within March 2017...




Not that sooner .......isn't it?

March 2017- kiyala koheda thiyenne.

Doc saying early 2017- in that case transaction should be January- February 2017

Hi stockback,

I was referring the 31/10/2016 Dated Convertible Debentures Accouncement In Thai -GL

http://www.set.or.th/set/newsdetails.do?newsId=14778709831250&language=en&country=US

I think Your are referring  Press release....on 14/11/2016

http://gl.listedcompany.com/news.html/id/554387

I don't know which is more reliable .....


GL Shows New Record-High Q3 Profits, Expects Even Stronger Growth in Q4


[size=12]BackNovember 14, 2016


Thanks to continuous expansion of its growing regional businesses, SET-listed digital finance firm Group Lease Public Company Limited (GL) has reported a new record-high net profit of 260.41 million baht for the third quarter ending September, which represents a whopping 73.29% increase from the same period last year.
This marks the eight consecutive new quarterly record-high profits for GL, which prides itself as the first Thailand-based financial services company that has developed a highly efficient digital finance platform now being used to support its business expansion into Thailand’s neighboring countries of CLMV plus Indonesia and Sri Lanka.
GL Chairman and Chief Executive Mitsuji Konoshita noted that the Q3 profits would have been considerably higher at nearly 300 million baht if it had not been for one-time fees impact from several acquisitions.
He added that these acquisitions – particularly the 29.99% stake GL acquired in Commercial Credit & Finance Plc (CCF), a leading and highly profitable finance firm listed on the Colombo Stock Exchange – will help raise GL’s profits to substantially higher levels beginning in Q4.
CCF has projected to make a full-year profit of US$24 million this year and GL will start booking its share of the profits in Q4 from its 29.99% stake.
The chairman of GL’s executive board Tatsuya Konoshita explained further that the Q3 profits were also dragged by about 40 million baht of interest expenses for a new batch of US$130 million convertible debentures (CDs) that were issued for subscription by GL’s strategic partner in Indonesia, J Trust Asia (JTA).
He said the results have shown improvement in all fronts, with the Cambodian operations continuing to be the star performer while the relatively new operations in Indonesia have, surprisingly, turned positive in this quarter.
A rough breakdown of the Q3 profits shows the Cambodian operations (which combine the regular leasing of motorcycles and agricultural machineries plus loans to SME businesses) contributing the largest portion of about 130 million baht, followed by Thailand operations (about 100 million baht), plus another 15 million baht each from the Thai subsidiary Thanabun and GL Laos.
On top of acquiring the 29.99% stake in the listed Sri Lankan finance firm CCF, GL is also mounting a full-scale expansion into Myanmar by taking over a micro-finance firm and partnering with local business tycoon U Aung Moe Kyaw, owner of Century Finance and the country’s leading liquor group Myanmar Distillery, to expand into a broad range of other financial services.
Raising more funds to support the company’s aggressive regional expansion, it recently decided to issue additional CDs totaling US$70 million in private placement (PP) – comprising of US$50 million to be subscribed by its strategic partner JTA and another US$20 million for an affiliate in Sri Lanka, Creation Investments Sri Lanka (Creation SL). Carrying three-year maturity, the conversion price for these CDs is set at 70 baht per share.
[/size]

129 Re: Commercial Credit & Finance PLC on Mon Nov 14, 2016 6:34 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
what is your problem?

130 Re: Commercial Credit & Finance PLC on Mon Nov 14, 2016 7:05 pm

PrasannaMani

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@stockback wrote:what is your problem?
What do u mean?

131 Re: Commercial Credit & Finance PLC on Mon Nov 14, 2016 7:08 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@PrasannaMani wrote:
@stockback wrote:what is your problem?
What do u mean?


I don't know which is more reliable .....


what is your problem about two docs.

132 Re: Commercial Credit & Finance PLC on Mon Nov 14, 2016 7:36 pm

PrasannaMani

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@stockback wrote:
@PrasannaMani wrote:
@stockback wrote:what is your problem?
What do u mean?


I don't know which is more reliable .....


what is your problem about two docs.
When do think this deal will be taken place? First docs says Early in 2017 and within March 2017.


Latest press release says ''will help Raise GL's profits in sustainability higher levels in beginning of Quarter4.'' 
GL financial year end is December 31.


So what do u think..?

133 Re: Commercial Credit & Finance PLC on Mon Nov 14, 2016 8:03 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
"CCF has projected to make a full-year profit of US$24 million this year and GL will start booking its share of the profits in Q4 from its 29.99% stake."


COCR 0 Q4 is (01.01.2017  -  31.03.2017)
I think they are talking about COCR Q4. that is Q1 of group lease.


still bit confusing thing. if so latest Doc should be trust.


maybe they have a plan to add book profit Q3- COCR profits into GL this year financial report.


will see.......

134 Re: Commercial Credit & Finance PLC on Wed Nov 16, 2016 12:20 pm

TARGET


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
still coming down with the weak market.  Anyway directors wife knew the game..Dirty games and they always win where poor retailers suffer all the time.

135 Re: Commercial Credit & Finance PLC on Wed Nov 16, 2016 12:30 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@TARGET wrote:still coming down with the weak market.  Anyway directors wife knew the game..Dirty games and they always win where poor retailers suffer all the time.


I am waiting to buy this stock under this market best price.

next year first quarter will give good returns. I can buy 150K stocks. if i start i can stop falling this. but I am waiting for best price. then easily move.

Think BFL. BFL drop 240-120 level very short time BFL trade over 180 level. then 50% gain.

deal price is  111. level. earnings  are progressing further. then COCR trading 85-95 possible next year first quarters. if we can buy bellow 50 level then easily 75% profit in short term. 

I can see main share holder daughter collecting stocks. if they did this quarter also. then market liquidity is going down then easily trade over 85-95 range...

136 Re: Commercial Credit & Finance PLC on Wed Nov 16, 2016 12:40 pm

TARGET


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
happy to see your financial strength SB. But tell me why you chase cocr?   why don't you try apla or tkyo?

137 Re: Commercial Credit & Finance PLC on Wed Nov 16, 2016 1:11 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@TARGET wrote:happy to see your financial strength SB. But tell me why you chase cocr?   why don't you try apla or tkyo?


RSI is very low. and clean buyer at 111. 29.99% stocks. that means COCR can trade over 85 level.

why COCR down bcz of Director Wife sold. when they buying no notice. this is dirty game. I am sure they will play vary well. I will go with them....


TKYO-- now huge selling from top holder.
APLA - is good stock but liquidity is not help to stock price. then players not playing with this stock

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