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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Market status as at 3rd October

Market status as at 3rd October

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1 Market status as at 3rd October on Thu Sep 15, 2016 8:00 pm

EquityChamp

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Moderator



Last edited by EquityChamp on Mon Oct 03, 2016 9:55 pm; edited 1 time in total

2 Re: Market status as at 3rd October on Thu Sep 15, 2016 8:11 pm

EquityChamp

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Moderator
Lot of energy has been spent on unnecessary thinks in this forum. Unproductive posts, unproductive discussions and unproductive arguments have eaten lot of valuable time. Just see what is going on. Without anybody's notice market has reaching oversold territory. We were expecting a market surge in September but due to few reasons the expected surge is still not happening. Some of the reasons could have been 1) the JKH expected bounce is not yet happened 2) CTC is impacted by ongoing government discussions 3) the delay in much expected poultry run.

Remember the following facts and plan your future accordingly.
1) Interest rates are showings signs of declining
2) USD/LKR rate has seen improving month on month
3) Government fiscal deficit are seen achieving half way mark
4) Global energy costs are continue to go down
5) Tourist arrivals are seen rising continuously
6)  Corporate earnings were much better than expected during the latest concluded quarter

And many more. Market PE still came down to 13 levels now despite resent foreign buying.

So you have to decide whether spending your golden time on analysing these or spending on rubbish.

Good luck

3 Re: Market status as at 3rd October on Thu Sep 15, 2016 9:32 pm

pfxavier


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
EC,

Good of you to remind the members the purpose of the forum. Keep your good work. I feel market will turn around by end of this month and anxiously waiting for poultry run. I am collecting GRAN @ 92 - 93. What's your opinion about this price ?

Xavier

4 Re: Market status as at 3rd October on Thu Sep 15, 2016 9:52 pm

EquityChamp

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Moderator
Nothing wrong about your decision. Slowly collect and wait.

For GRAN now its clear a new support level has been established around 90-93 level upgrading from previous 70-73 level. Now need to see what is the new resistance level. previously it was around 80-82. We have seen a resistance level around 95-97 but the interesting thing to note that the latest resistance level is just above the new support level. So my view is that GRAN is yet to witness its new resistance level after establishing the new support level so that very soon we can see a much higher resistance level is crated.

Thanks

5 Re: Market status as at 3rd October on Thu Sep 15, 2016 11:55 pm

Brinthan

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Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Thanx..EC Sir... Post unproductivly  and they fill this forum space with their garbages...This is the best stock market forum in Srilanka..Because of EC Sir and some valuable persons like Valuepick .He is miss from this forum and lot unwanted useless guys post bla bla bla and they spoil this forum continuesly...I don't like to mention their names..This is open request to all...

6 Re: Market status as at 3rd October on Fri Sep 16, 2016 5:19 am

Garayaka


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
Thanks EC for your valuable contribution.

7 Re: Market status as at 3rd October on Fri Sep 16, 2016 10:04 am

HyLander


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Thanks EquityChamp, you are one unbiased person and real asset to this forum. We lost many like you for past time.


Good Luck

8 Re: Market status as at 3rd October on Fri Sep 16, 2016 11:52 am

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
ASI 6430 is key point to me. i expect bounce back from this point. any idea......

9 Re: Market status as at 3rd October on Fri Sep 16, 2016 5:03 pm

newer1


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Yes.i also have hope  about ASI which will bounce back at 6430-6437.mkt also at oversold position and there is no such a bad mkt sentiment at the moment while continuous foreign buying. 
Any comments?

10 Re: Market status as at 3rd October on Tue Sep 20, 2016 1:21 am

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@stockback wrote:ASI 6430 is key point to me. i expect bounce back from this point. any idea......


tomorrow touching my key point and bounce back is expecting....

will see.........

11 Re: Market status as at 3rd October on Tue Sep 20, 2016 7:08 am

EquityChamp

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Moderator
Day by day market is reaching oversold region. But macro and micro factors are getting improved. With the introduction of VAT fiscal deficit is set to come down to meet the IMF targets. Then what could be the impact on interest rates and exchange rates. Can you match this puzzle. The 1% of investors who can do this will be the winners during next 1 to 2 years. Keep my analysis in mind.

12 Re: Market status as at 3rd October on Tue Sep 20, 2016 2:50 pm

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Consumers' spending becomes slower as pricing on essential needs are rising gradually. Control measures taken on pricing by authorities are not at success rate. 

It is noted that middle & upper middle spending on luxury products, real estate, consuming items, construction are continuously rising. So single digit inflation rate may remain for some time but uptrend of single digit in the future is inevitable. Thereby, CB leaves no option to control inflation other than increasing the rates. Coming budget proposals would be the decisive factor for future outlook.

13 Re: Market status as at 3rd October on Tue Sep 20, 2016 7:56 pm

EquityChamp

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Moderator
Market PE came down to 13.2 and RSI came down to 31. Another day of more negative closing can pull the market into a deep oversold region and when that happen it will be there some time consolidating for the next move. So a critical level is reaching and let's see whether market will turn back. That should happen within this week if to prevent from being entering into the oversold region.
Thanks

14 Re: Market status as at 3rd October on Wed Sep 21, 2016 6:43 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@stockback wrote:
@stockback wrote:ASI 6430 is key point to me. i expect bounce back from this point. any idea......


tomorrow touching my key point and bounce back is expecting....

will see.........


will see...

this will continue until foreign selling start...

I think this time foreigners buying for Mid/Long term investments.

methana ara devagank wechcha GOD hitiyanam uda pani.......

anyway we have to analyse carefully coming days.

BOJ(Bank of Japan) Hold current policy rates. tonight coming FED rates announcement. I am waiting for that positive news.

15 Re: Market status as at 3rd October on Wed Sep 21, 2016 7:45 pm

ShaneMc


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Awesome Stockback!

Keep it up!

16 Re: Market status as at 3rd October on Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:12 am

EquityChamp

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Moderator
@EquityChamp wrote:So a critical level is reaching and let's see whether market will turn back. That should happen within this week if to prevent from being entering into the oversold region.

So yesterday we saw an effort by the market. Today will confirm whether it was a spiritual one or just a 'Pop-Up'
Thanks

17 Re: Market status as at 3rd October on Fri Sep 23, 2016 12:06 am

EquityChamp

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Moderator
Today activity confirms that the current market effort is kind of a spiritual one. But concern is today we saw a heavy foreign selling. Net foreign selling come close to 1Bn. Foreign buying was mainly on TJL but what would have led the foreign selling?

18 Re: Market status as at 3rd October on Fri Sep 23, 2016 12:12 am

Teller

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Moderator
CSE is undervalue compare to world markets. This must be adjustable very soon

19 Re: Market status as at 3rd October on Fri Sep 23, 2016 12:42 am

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@EquityChamp wrote:Today activity confirms that the current market effort is kind of a spiritual one. But concern is today we saw a heavy foreign selling. Net foreign selling come close to 1Bn. Foreign buying was mainly on TJL but what would have led the foreign selling?


are you worried about NDB selling?

key factor is some attractive stocks are buying foreigners.(perahare mulinma enna kasa karayo passe thama wada kali thiyenne)

Market is Up and Down, Down and Up, economy growing is highly reflect to the market.  this is my idea....


will see............

20 Re: Market status as at 3rd October on Fri Sep 23, 2016 12:43 am

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@ShaneMc wrote:Awesome Stockback!

Keep it up!


aduma gane like eka ekawath danna ona. Joke  Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

21 Re: Market status as at 3rd October on Fri Sep 23, 2016 3:54 am

ShaneMc


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Always as expected!
king king king

22 Re: Market status as at 3rd October on Fri Sep 30, 2016 2:21 pm

EquityChamp

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Moderator
So as said market is prevented entering oversold region by some spiritual buying. It has taken the market above 6500 once again. A more sustained buying in stocks like JKH, COMB, SAMP, SLT, DIAL can keep the market on these levels without forcing it to come down a PE below 13x.

23 Re: Market status as at 3rd October on Fri Sep 30, 2016 9:25 pm

Bullrunner7

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Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Hopefully the government doesn't screw this up with the upcoming budget !

24 Re: Market status as at 3rd October on Mon Oct 03, 2016 9:54 pm

EquityChamp

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Moderator
As I predicted now the market is moving towards its resistance level with gaining momentum. RSIs have moved to 60s but still buy signals are intact. Blue chips have prevented the market from moving to oversold region and now its in a neutral region with more momentum. Market moved up by 140 points now from its bottom levels. Market PE has improved to 13.5x yet more room for improvement.

25 Re: Market status as at 3rd October on Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:24 pm

nimantha80


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@EquityChamp wrote:As I predicted now the market is moving towards its resistance level with gaining momentum. RSIs have moved to 60s but still buy signals are intact. Blue chips have prevented the market from moving to oversold region and now its in a neutral region with more momentum. Market moved up by 140 points now from its bottom levels. Market PE has improved to 13.5x yet more room for improvement.
high highs and low lows.It's nicely poised.

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