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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » John Keells Holdings

John Keells Holdings

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1 John Keells Holdings on Fri Nov 04, 2016 11:33 pm

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
I can see good signs of improving performances. Q2 16/17 shows great growth in results. Gross profits improved by 20%. Though insurance expenses shows a setback the 11% increase in finance income off sets the overall impact helping to generate 11% in PAT YoY.
another silent company for a long time begins to showing signs of getting up like SAMP and COMB.

2 Re: John Keells Holdings on Sat Nov 05, 2016 11:23 am

darrenadanm


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
As an investor i think they are moving very slowly, look at what they are doing to "cinnamon life" project..it will opened in 2020 ??? It was supposed to be ready in 2017 !!! 

they are not expanding their business, they need to expand ! i think the present chairman is not suitable for running a company that needs to expand fast.. look what happened to Tata! 

JKH's every business segment is getting saturated and their margins are declining...They can be a Wide Moat if they enter the following businesses and monopolize it ; 

1. Lobby the government to privatize Sri Lanka Railways and acquire it.
2. Lobby the government to privatize Sri Lankan Port authorities and acquire it..

If they can do the above, they can generate huge profits with a big margin !! but i dont think present Chairman is capable of such mission  Embarassed Embarassed

3 Re: John Keells Holdings on Sat Nov 05, 2016 8:34 pm

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Any strategy for privatization of railway & port could be achieved only by a strong government. In next 10-15 years none can establish a such.
Moreover, JKH is a long term investment portfolio with high dividend payout.

4 Re: John Keells Holdings on Sun Nov 06, 2016 10:15 am

Brinthan

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Will JKH raise Rs. 8 billion from warrant conversion next week?

There will be a cash infusion of eight billion rupees to the John Keells Holdings conglomerate if all outstanding 2016 warrants are converted to shares at the Rs. 149.29 conversion price by next Friday (Nov. 11) but a question mark hangs over whether this would happen given the prevailing JKH share price on the market.


JKH closed on Friday on the CSE at Rs. 151.30, down 60 cents from the previous close with nearly 390,000 shares traded between Rs. 151 and Rs. 151.80. Given the transaction cost on the Exchange of 1.12%, this would have translated to slightly over Rs. 1.69 per share sold at the closing price.


"After paying the transaction cost, a seller at that price would have got Rs. 149.61 per share – just 32 cents over the warrant conversion cost. If he had warrants, convertible on the basis of one share per warrant, selling off at prevailing prices and recovering the shares sold by converting the warrants wouldn’t be much of a profit," an analyst explained.


He believed that institutional and large shareholders of JKH including some warrant holders who bought warrants on the secondary market at one and two rupees will covert.


"But what retailers will do remains open," he said. "Much of it will depend on what the share price is till the end of the week."


What would JKH do if the warrant conversion falls short of the maximum possible?


Unlike in a rights issue, warrants do not allow additional shares to be sold to those who want them. So the company will have to make the best use of whatever it raises by way of the conversion.


The biggest warrant holders as at Sept. 30, 2016 was the Sohli Captain controlled Paints and General Industries with 15.2 million (30.2%) followed by his daughter, Leesha, with 3.9 million (7.8%).


"There would have been few if any changes from the published figures of the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2016 because the warrants stopped trading on Sept. 27," the analyst said.


They were issued free to subscribers of the last JKH rights issue at the end of 2013 and commanded a good price earlier. In the quarter ended Sept. 2015 there was a top price of Rs. 43.80 and a low of Rs. 30 closing at Rs. 36.70. But this year the price was sharply down with a high of Rs. 7.90 and a low of 50 cents closing on Sept. 30, 2016 at one rupee.


Broga Hill Investments, a foreign fund with 10.4% of JKH is its top shareholder followed by Sohli Captain (10.1%) and Paints and General Industries (8.3%).


JKH’s mega Waterfront Development project costing USD 850 million has been delayed following an issue with the Korean contractor. But that has been resolved and JKH Deputy Chairman Ajit Gunawardene went on record last week saying work has resumed and the project would be launched by end 2019 or early 2020.


By then the top team of JKH would have retired with Gunawardene and Finance Director Ronnie Peiris due to leave in Dec. 2017 with Chairman/CEO Susantha Ratnayake leaving a year later.
[ltr]http://island.lk/index.php?page_cat=art ... tle=154990[/ltr]

5 Re: John Keells Holdings on Fri Nov 18, 2016 3:15 pm

darrenadanm


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@worthiness wrote:Any strategy for privatization of railway & port could be achieved only by a strong government. In next 10-15 years none can establish a such.
Moreover, JKH is a long term investment portfolio with high dividend payout.


Only JKH and harry .J can lobby to privatize those things now, they are ultra pro UNP and the present CB. Governer is was a JKH director..so if they try hard this is the correct time for them to pick those valuable assets and exploit it to make a monopoly... 

i know this is not fair to compaire a Goliath with a David, but look the following dates; 

1. Tata - founded in 1867

2. JKH - founded in 1870


look the present situation of those two companies... 


Ratan Tata sacked Mr Mistry bcoz he is not expanding but rather improving current businesses..business is all about exploiting chances very fast and capitalizing on it... look what is JKH is doing, even they cant finish a project on due date, cinnamon life was projected to be open on 2017, but now they are telling it will be finished on 2020..This chairman is not good, and he is not taking enough risk to expand the business..as an investor i am deeply concerned about this chairman..

6 Re: John Keells Holdings on Fri Nov 18, 2016 4:59 pm

jayathu


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
3.1 Billion Raised

7 Re: John Keells Holdings on Sun Nov 20, 2016 8:46 pm

Brinthan

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
John Keells completes funding for Cinnamon Life project

Published: 2016-11-21 05:33:30 


Sri Lankas premier blue chip, John Keells Holdings PLC (JKH), last week said, raising of funds for its Cinnamon Life project, the single largest private investment so far in the country, had been completed. Cinnamon Life, which was earlier known as Waterfront Project, is estimated to require an investment up to US $ 770 million and based on the funding profile, the project is funded equally through debt and equity. JKH in a stock exchange filing said it had concluded the conversion of its 2016 warrants, the second and the last in the line of capital calls through warrants to fund the project, which is now being built in the heart of Colombo. However, unlike the 2015 warrants, which saw near full subscription levels, the shareholders have exercised and accepted only a fraction of the 2016 warrants on offer. That is, out of the 57.46 million warrants, only 21.28 million warrants have been exercised and accepted for a total of Rs.3.18 billion. This has led to a shortfall of funds to the tune of Rs.5.38 billion from 2016 warrants because if total warrants were fully subscribed, the company should have received Rs.8.58 billion at an exercise price of Rs.149.29. This raises questions whether JKH has lowered the scale of the project, which demands a lower investment than originally planned, or the company has secured additional debt funding. Or may be JKH is operating with adequate internally generated cash reserves to fund the shortfall in the equity portion of the funding mix. The equity and debt financing requirement for the Cinnamon Life project remains secured with the conclusion of the required debt financing for the project in December 2014 and availability of cash reserves to meet equity commitments through the capital raised via the 2013 rights issue, 2015 Warrants and internally generated cash, JKH said in the filing. When the project was initially announced in July 2013, JKH raised Rs.23.1 billion through a rights issue in September 2013 in the proportion of one new share for every thirteen held. The rights were attached with warrants. That is, any subscriber to the rights will automatically be entitled to subscribe for two warrants in 2015 and 2016. Each warrant equals to a share. In 2015, out of the 50.28 million warrants in issue, a total of 49.25 million warrants were exercised and accepted for a total of Rs.7.97 billion. Meanwhile, in June 2015, JKH secured US $ 395 million syndicated project development facility from Standard Chartered Bank effectively concluding the debt financing of the project. Hence, no evidence points to JKH securing additional debt funding to finance the project. The company however may have changed the designing and the positioning of the project slightly after the government restricted the ability to rent space for gaming activities as earlier planned. Early this year, JKH announced the project would be delayed until 2019 from the earlier planned 2017. The 4.5 million square feet flagship project will house a 800-room, 6-star hotel, retail, residential and office spaces and a conference centre, largely targeting the Meetings, Incentives, Conventions and Exhibitions (MICE) tourism. 

8 Re: John Keells Holdings on Sun Nov 20, 2016 8:55 pm

Brinthan

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
ISSUED WARRENTS- 57.46MN
SUBSCRIBED             -21.28MN
UNSUBSCRIBED       -36.48MN

SO IF WE CALCULATE AVG 1/- PER WARRENT INVESTORS LOST 36.48 MN.I THINK  ALL TOGETHER THE LOST MAY BE MORE THEN 100MN... Sad

9 Re: John Keells Holdings on Sun Nov 20, 2016 9:09 pm

Brinthan

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
DIVIDEND ANNOUNCEMENT
18 November 2015

Date of Announcement: - 18.Nov.2015 
Rate of Dividend: - Rs.4.50 per share / Interim Dividend 
(Please note that the eligible shareholders will include holders of ordinary shares converted through the exercise of the 2015 warrant (W0022))
Financial Year: - 2015/2016 
XD: - 30.Nov.2015 
Payment: - 09.Dec.2015 
Share Transfer Book Open

Last year they announced good dividend after the warrant conversion...What about this year....?This week can possible....or any idea....? Question

10 Re: John Keells Holdings on Mon Nov 21, 2016 8:49 am

jayathu


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
right after the conversion is done and those converted shares are given usually market price comes down. To defend that they give a dividend to defend the CMP.
So lets see whether they will do the same this tym also.

11 IN YOUR DREAMS on Mon Nov 21, 2016 10:05 am

ruwan326

avatar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
DIVIDEND ANNOUNCEMENT
04 October 2016

Date of Announcement: - 04.Oct.2016
Rate of Dividend: - Rs. 2.00 per share / Interim Dividend
Financial Year: - 2016/2017
XD: - 13.Oct.2016
Payment: 24.Oct.2016
Share Transfer Book Open

It is not possible for another dividend sooner......

This year warrant conversion is poor Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked

12 Re: John Keells Holdings on Mon Nov 21, 2016 10:12 am

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
Don't think that they will give dividend for warrants this year too. But I am highly expecting another rights issue towards the end on next year/closer to the end of the Cinnamon Life project.

13 Re: John Keells Holdings on Mon Nov 21, 2016 1:02 pm

Chinwi

avatar
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
I think they can adjust the cost with some modifications + re calculations.

Their estimated cost 770million for 4.5 million sqft = 171 US$ per sq foot. seems to be at international rates.

If you compare Dubai Silicon Oasis , with very high cost of construction employing foreign labour,  their approx. cost was below 150 US$ and selling price of sq ft was 177  US$ in early 2014.

It is true the prices have escalated but considering our working environment and availability of local sub contractors I think  they may get some jobs done below estimated amounts after doing some changes, specially by deleting unwanted and unmatched high cost interior and exterior ideas of money wasting architects.


Dubai Silicone Oasis

14 Re: John Keells Holdings on Mon Nov 21, 2016 1:34 pm

Gallardo


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I agree with Chinwi, costs can be adjusted and the original design included a costly Casino which is no longer included.  I'm sure there'll be design flexibility to ensure that if the government of the day permits, a casino can still be retrofitted.  The game's got tougher but for a conglomerate like JKH there's always a game changer in the cards.   Very interesting thoughts across this thread, time will tell but time is kind on well run companies.  Meanwhile, this year looks on track for another all time record for profits and one of the most impressive PE ratios ever.  Yes, they will even beat Perpetual treasuries' profits! Very Happy

15 Re: John Keells Holdings on Mon Nov 21, 2016 2:32 pm

econ

avatar
Global Moderator
Can they make profits without having casino business? Most property developers are facing hard time due to competition to sell their products.


_________________

--------------------
This is not buying\selling recommendation. Do your own analysis before take any decision

16 Re: John Keells Holdings on Mon Nov 21, 2016 3:35 pm

anges


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
JKH a bit over valued !

17 Re: John Keells Holdings on Mon Nov 21, 2016 7:41 pm

Brinthan

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
I am not positive with JKH and its Future...Profit wise this year or Next year other strong compenies will beat JKH ...I expect JKH will trade somewhere around 100-120 next year...

18 Re: John Keells Holdings on Mon Nov 21, 2016 10:24 pm

Brinthan

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Tomorrow i am going to completly exit from JKH.I don't know my decision is correct or wrong..But if the right issue is coming i don't have money to invest...Then i think this is a correct way to do.....

19 Re: John Keells Holdings on Tue Nov 22, 2016 8:10 am

shadow walker

avatar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Brinthan wrote:I am not positive with JKH and its Future...Profit wise this year or Next year other strong compenies will beat JKH ...I expect JKH will trade somewhere around 100-120 next year...

after the warrant conversion this could come down to 130 levels..

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