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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Wallstreet - 1929 CSE - 2017 “ Two Tales - one Result “

Wallstreet - 1929 CSE - 2017 “ Two Tales - one Result “

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Prince

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
1)      1) New Capital Gain Tax which is applicable on Stock Trading
2)      2) Trumps Victory might increase Dollar Interest rates which in turn will make the foreign investor exit.
3)      3) Higher interest rates for Deposits/Debentures (might even reach 17%  to 20% )
4)      4) Unfavorable new Budget proposals which curbs Bank Industry’s profitability by at least 50%
5)      5) Political & security uncertainty in the Country
6)      6) Economical instability
7)      7) Rising Dollar &  increasing inflation ( Dollar will hit 160/- by Jan-Feb 2017 )


God bless you all ! ! !

Prince

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
1 st symptom ,

Reversal of Seylan Bank stake owned by BOC !

more to come ... !

How about Zero Margin trading ( new ) rule .?

or

EPF / ETF  sell out their holdings to a foreign party . ?

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
So as an investor what is your advice. What should we do. Should we put money in bank account and wait till market reach 7000. But wait what should we do for the losses already incurred even on good shares like Sampath, Commercial, ACL, Grain and TAFL? Should we realize it now at this point in order to put the money in bank account or hold on as thinking there is no place to fall when you are already on the floor.?

Prince

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
hey, EC

Stock markets run on cycles just as Samsaara Chakra , will understand by many with the age , expeience & maturity.
I have experienced 3 Mega Cycles & many general cycles in my life time in CSE.
From what I understand from my past experience is that , if I'm to answer your questions;

Q1) Should we realize it now at this point in order to put the money in bank account ?
Ans: not at all , you should have beeen back footed ever since the interest rates started to reach 10% more over make the "exit" gradually when you see paper ads for higher rates continuously. Would you beleive some finance companies offer nearly 19% ( selective ) for FD's ?  which recalls me the time period 1995 - 1996 where the country was in a terrible position contrast of a loosing WAR. Banks tended to give 5 Year CDs for 20% interest rate where some people thought of selling their immovable properties and deposit that money in Banks which was a correct decision up to an extent.
When I go through some of your posts I feel that you have some sort of experience in Capital Markets as well as a sound back ground in Education.
But then ..  why didn't you forseen the Risk in the market and thought of buying SAMP , COMB , ACL , GRAN ,TAFL  ???  You were taking decisions from your heart instead of the head i guess as you are a strong supporter of the current government :-)

Q2) what should we do for the losses already incurred even on good shares like Sampath, Commercial, ACL, Grain and TAFL?
Ans: If the loss percentage is below 10% , YES sell it off immediately.

Q3) Should we realize it now at this point in order to put the money in bank account ?
Ans: If I were you, I will do the sell out even its 20% loss margin.

Q4) or hold on as thinking there is no place to fall when you are already on the floor ?
Ans: No you are not on the floor yet ! You are in mid of the air , half way of the fall , yet to hit your back on the floor.

Rgds

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
So Prince your writing shows me a ASPI target of 5000-5250. Am I correct.

Prince

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
with 19% FD rate  I would say you are spot on !

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
And adding to your inputs finance minister indicates a strong rupee in 2017 at the expense of rising interest rates. Which means pressure on interest rates are higher in 2017. Have I make sense here.

Prince

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
this is something impossible , unless Government stop borrowing locally.
Government have to have find extra many Billions of rupees , each and every month in the context of paying increased Rs 10,000 to the Government servants, as promised in " the CHANGE " .
Further Government loss its major income lines with reduced fuel prices and increased tobacco.

tkc

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Prince, You are collecting shares right? 
Everyone in this forum is an adult. So, anyone can take any decision Buy, Sell or Hold. Just like you are acting like selling (I still don't believe in you, and I know you don't care about me believe r not) If the market is not up by 15th Feb 2017, I ll believe you as a good analyst. If not I believe you are as no need to mention. So, we ll wait.

I believe in CSE. I am collecting collecting and collecting. Yes I believe in the market. Yes I believe CSE not you.

nimantha80


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@tkc wrote:Prince, You are collecting shares right? 
Everyone in this forum is an adult. So, anyone can take any decision Buy, Sell or Hold. Just like you are acting like selling (I still don't believe in you, and I know you don't care about me believe r not) If the market is not up by 15th Feb 2017, I ll believe you as a good analyst. If not I believe you are as no need to mention. So, we ll wait.

I believe in CSE. I am collecting collecting and collecting. Yes I believe in the market. Yes I believe CSE not you.
Good one.I honest waited without saying anything because people should know about them now.Better observe who adds wood to the fire also.(supporting comments)

Prince

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@tkc wrote:Prince, You are collecting shares right? 
Everyone in this forum is an adult. So, anyone can take any decision Buy, Sell or Hold. Just like you are acting like selling (I still don't believe in you, and I know you don't care about me believe r not) If the market is not up by 15th Feb 2017, I ll believe you as a good analyst. If not I believe you are as no need to mention. So, we ll wait.

I believe in CSE. I am collecting collecting and collecting. Yes I believe in the market. Yes I believe CSE not you.


hey tkc,
 
Please carry on your buying , no harm to me , good for market anyway.
 
Since you are a good collector I assume that you have collected plenty from COCR at 58 -62 levels and made the exit at 72/- a week ago.
 
Or , are you that faithful buyer who bought JKH warrants at 16 - 25 and sold at 1.50 ?
 
Its good that you belive in Market. You should be .  If I ask you a question like , what instruments in the CSE other than the things you collecting these days ? exists.
Have you ever heard of Bonds , Debentures listed in CSE ? and what are the returns of them ?.

 
In other words. .. is CSE or trading shares can be considered as an Investment ? or is it a game of Gambling as a few accuses?
 
Ok , I'll ask a different question. Do you have a good Broker who guides you intelligently? For your information, although many used to call them as a  "Broker" the technical term or the scientific title is " Investment Advisor " .  He is there not only to send your settlement notices or just answer your call since he cannot avoid you. As the title suggests he should be advising you on Investments. Unfortunately in Sri Lanka Investment Advisors attached to broker firms are a bunch of people who joined the firms since they had no other job offer. Although they are suppose to undergo a compulsory examination by the regulatory body I haven’t met even a handful of people who meet sufficient competency level, good general knowledge neither high IQ.
Making above comment if I again ask you, what is your Broker's idea on CSE’s direction for next week, month or year? What’s his advice?  Is he know about the high interests paid on Debentures, Bonds , Treasury Bills  or even for Fixed Deposits.  Do a small calculation on the amount/value  you had in the market as of  01.01.2016 and the value reflects as of 28.12.2016 and gain you made for the financial year.  If you cash all of your portfolio by end of today , what is your capital gain as a percentage?  Is it well above 20%  ?  I bet its not the case with you.

 
Pumping all the money you have,  into your ever shrinking portfolio , anticipating a good return,  in an unknown future  is called “Gambling”  !

tkc

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Prince wrote:
@tkc wrote:Prince, You are collecting shares right? 
Everyone in this forum is an adult. So, anyone can take any decision Buy, Sell or Hold. Just like you are acting like selling (I still don't believe in you, and I know you don't care about me believe r not) If the market is not up by 15th Feb 2017, I ll believe you as a good analyst. If not I believe you are as no need to mention. So, we ll wait.

I believe in CSE. I am collecting collecting and collecting. Yes I believe in the market. Yes I believe CSE not you.


hey tkc,
 
Please carry on your buying , no harm to me , good for market anyway.
 
Since you are a good collector I assume that you have collected plenty from COCR at 58 -62 levels and made the exit at 72/- a week ago.
 
Or , are you that faithful buyer who bought JKH warrants at 16 - 25 and sold at 1.50 ?
 
Its good that you belive in Market. You should be .  If I ask you a question like , what instruments in the CSE other than the things you collecting these days ? exists.
Have you ever heard of Bonds , Debentures listed in CSE ? and what are the returns of them ?.

 
In other words. .. is CSE or trading shares can be considered as an Investment ? or is it a game of Gambling as a few accuses?
 
Ok , I'll ask a different question. Do you have a good Broker who guides you intelligently? For your information, although many used to call them as a  "Broker" the technical term or the scientific title is " Investment Advisor " .  He is there not only to send your settlement notices or just answer your call since he cannot avoid you. As the title suggests he should be advising you on Investments. Unfortunately in Sri Lanka Investment Advisors attached to broker firms are a bunch of people who joined the firms since they had no other job offer. Although they are suppose to undergo a compulsory examination by the regulatory body I haven’t met even a handful of people who meet sufficient competency level, good general knowledge neither high IQ.
Making above comment if I again ask you, what is your Broker's idea on CSE’s direction for next week, month or year? What’s his advice?  Is he know about the high interests paid on Debentures, Bonds , Treasury Bills  or even for Fixed Deposits.  Do a small calculation on the amount/value  you had in the market as of  01.01.2016 and the value reflects as of 28.12.2016 and gain you made for the financial year.  If you cash all of your portfolio by end of today , what is your capital gain as a percentage?  Is it well above 20%  ?  I bet its not the case with you.

 
Pumping all the money you have,  into your ever shrinking portfolio , anticipating a good return,  in an unknown future  is called 

no comments

Prince

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@tkc wrote:Prince, You are collecting shares right? 
Everyone in this forum is an adult. So, anyone can take any decision Buy, Sell or Hold. Just like you are acting like selling (I still don't believe in you, and I know you don't care about me believe r not) If the market is not up by 15th Feb 2017, I ll believe you as a good analyst. If not I believe you are as no need to mention. So, we ll wait.

I believe in CSE. I am collecting collecting and collecting. Yes I believe in the market. Yes I believe CSE not you.

So tkc,  its one more day for your D-Day ! 

Is the Market  Up ??????

Chinwi

avatar
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
he he D days ?
 People are struggling to sell to get back some money to meet their day to day needs. No buyers.

හෙට මාකට් එක කියන්නෙ අද  රටේ වෙන  බිස්නස් එක​.
පාරට බැහැල​ කොටුවෙ හරස් වීථි වල සිට ගමේ විට කඩේ දක්වා, අරක්කු බෝතලේ සිට මල් පැලේ දක්වා ව්‍යාපාර පිරිවැටුම ගැන හොයා බලන්න​.  එවිට ඔය සමිකරණ , කොම්පියුටර්, ඇනලයිසිස් වලට එන්නෙ නැති රිසල්ට් පේන්න ගනී.
කාගිල්ස් එකේ ගොඩ ගහල තියෙනෙ ගල් අරක්කු බෝතල් දිහා බලන්න​.
වෙනද අතිවිශේෂෙ හෙවත් ඩයි දාපු එතනෝල්  ගන්නෙ බැරිම කෙනෙක්. අරන් කොලේක ඔතාගෙන යන්න හංග ගෙන​. යන්තම් වත් පුලුවන් කෙනෙක් ගන්නෙ වෙන ඒව​. අද මහත්තුරු හොඳට පේන්න  අරන් යන්නෙම ගල් අරක්කු බෝතල්  ලොකු සල්ලි කාරයො වගේ.

නියම ලෙස ව්‍යාපාරයක් කරල  ප්‍රායෝගික  අත්දැකීම්, අවබෝධයක් නැති කම්බ හොරු, බොරු කයිවාරු කාරයෝ  රටක් නෙවි සිල්ලර කඩයක් කරන්න ගත්තත් වෙන්නෙ වැටෙන එක පමණයි.
අපි මුල ඉඳලම කිව්වෙ කට්ටිය ගැන හොඳින්ම​ දන්න නිසා.
------

පිස්සු වලිනුත් හොඳක් වෙන අවස්ථා

මගේ වගා පිස්සුව නිසා 2014 මැද බාගෙ මහව පැත්තෙ ඉඩමක් ගත්ත​. අමු කැලේ. කැලේ කිව්වට අක්කර ගානක් කටු පඳුරු. තව සෑහෙන ගානක් වියදම් උනා ඉඩම සකස් කරන්න​. සල්ලි හොයා ගත්තෙ ශෙයාස් විකුණල​.

ලංකාවේ පාලනේ උඩු යටිකුරු වෙලා රට මෙහෙම වැටෙන බවක් නොදන්න කාලෙ ශෙයාස් විකුණුවෙ වගා පිස්සුව නිසාමයි. අපරාදෙ විකුණන්නෙ මේ යන විදියට​ තව අවුරුද්දක් දෙකක් යන කොට තව අක්කර 10 ක් වත් ගන්න ගානකට ශෙයාස් ටික දෙන්න පුලුවන් වෙයිනෙ කියල කවුරුත් කිව්ව, මටත් හිතුන​.
ඒත් වැඩේ කළා.  
පසුගිය දිගු ඉඩෝරෙ නිසා   පෑවිල්ලට ගස් මැරෙනකොට ගෙදර උන් දෑ බනිනව "මම කිව්වනේ ඔය වේලෙන පලාත් වල කැළැවල් අරන් නැහෙන්න එපා කියල​".   "අපරාදෙ සල්ලි" ලු.
දැන් මොනව උනත් ඉඩම ලස්සනයි.
කටු කැලේ එළි පෙහෙලි වෙලා , වටේ කම් බි ගහල​, වැවු කොටුවක් හදල , පාංශු රක්‍ෂණයට කොන්ටුවර් අගල් කපල​.

ඔන්න මට වියදම් උන ගාන වගේ දෙගුනයකට දැන් ඒක ඉල්ලනව​.

ශෙයාස්   තිබුන නම් ඒ ගාන වගේ 1/4 ක් වටින්නෙ නැති ගානට දැන් බැහැල, අනාතයි.
ඕක තමයි කියන්නෙ පිස්සු (enthusiasm) නිසා කරන වැඩ වලින් ද වාසි  එන්න පුලුවන් කියල​.  

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
I do not see any difference in Management Efficiency in present govt and last govt

Any way during last govt they charged a price for every govt decision
from law level to high level

If you take SAITAM last govt gave land and money Do you think

they gave those facilities free of charge

AGA and Grama Sewaka level also same. They took decisions and charged money personally

Some One can say that management is very efficient

Now that system is changed to certain extent. not fully

I hope efficiency of present govt can be seen in the long run

Wait and See







sheildskye

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
OH SHUTUP!

TARGET


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@D.G.Dayaratne wrote:I do not see any difference in Management Efficiency in present govt and last govt

Any way during last govt they charged a price for every govt decision
from law level to high level

If you take SAITAM last govt gave land and money Do you think

they gave those facilities free of charge

AGA and Grama Sewaka level also same. They took decisions and charged money personally

Some One can say that management is very efficient

Now that system is changed to certain extent. not fully

I hope efficiency of present govt can be seen in the long run

Wait and See







Mr. D.G. Dayarathne lokko... Munta thawath kade yanne obathumata lajjawak kiyala deyak gawilawath nadda???.. Ara me forum eke inna yahapalana LTTE diaspora dial ekage mattamata watenna epa.. Shocked

D.G.Dayaratne


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
I think what i say is correct


 I am not belong to any political group


 But i strongly feel MS is trying do genuine job although he is not a good manager


Media also do not understand and help him and political  and social system is highly corrupted

TARGET


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Dear prince, looks like you are the only one talking something sensible..You are talking the bitter truth at the moment...

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