Sri Lanka Equity Forum
Dear Reader,

Registration with the Sri Lanka Equity Forum would enable you to enjoy an array of other services such as Member Rankings, User Groups, Own Posts & Profile, Exclusive Research, Live Chat Box etc..

All information contained in this forum is subject to Disclaimer Notice published.


Thank You
Sri Lanka Equity Forum
Sri Lanka Equity Forum

Discussion Forum for Stock Market Investors in Sri Lanka

සිංහල පරිවර්තනය
Submit Post
Submit Post

Latest topics

» Please DON'T SELL IN PANIC, BUY, ONLY A SMALL INCIDENT, IT'S COMPLETELY OVER!!!!!
by Uaecoindubai Today at 3:57 pm

» SME M&A opportunity
by Ram13 Today at 3:49 pm

» Market will test 4700
by Sstar Today at 3:32 pm

» Buy When There's Blood in the Streets
by Soilconomy Today at 2:33 pm

» BFN බොරු සෙලින් දාලා කොහොම හරි 11 වගේ ගානට 500000 එකතු කරගන්න කියලා අර 14 ට ලක්ශයක් සෙලින් දැම්මේ මේ ටේලර් මහත්තයාම තමයි
by sanjulanka Today at 12:48 pm

» Central bank Issue
by Uaecoindubai Today at 12:41 pm

» 8 Finance companaies to be closed very soon
by Uaecoindubai Today at 12:17 pm

» Why AAIC Should trade above RS.50/-
by wisdom79 Today at 11:01 am

» HOTEL INDUSTRY
by Yahapalanaya Yesterday at 10:23 pm

» Look PAP Amazing company
by dmtmadusanka Yesterday at 4:15 pm

» Commencement of Trading at CSE
by Uaecoindubai Yesterday at 3:58 pm

» Good news from JKH : Will this be the market mover ?
by gjooos Yesterday at 1:06 pm

» whats the purpose of Bomb blasts?
by sanjulanka Yesterday at 9:11 am

» Best Free forex signals provider
by Uaecoindubai Sun Apr 21, 2019 3:24 pm

» Chairmam of Sanasa arrested over suspicion of misappropriation of funds
by hammurabi Sun Apr 21, 2019 9:36 am

» Sri Lanka Kattadiyalage Wegapitiya tries to manipulate Household Gas prices in Gas market, Wegapitiya lead LAUGFS Gas in a secret Deal to Bankrupt Government's Litro Gas by affecting 1.3 Million Households and 5 million people in the country
by Uaecoindubai Sat Apr 20, 2019 2:55 pm

» Economic Health of Sri Lanka
by Uaecoindubai Sat Apr 20, 2019 2:30 pm

» What is going on with TFC.N0000
by Uaecoindubai Sat Apr 20, 2019 2:30 pm

» REEF possible run.
by hammurabi Sat Apr 20, 2019 6:50 am

» EAST INTERESTING DAYS AHEAD 25+
by glad Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:40 am

» Weekly Stock Market Roundup
by Insights Equity Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:35 am

» Would CIC make an upward move in the coming weeks?
by hammurabi Fri Apr 19, 2019 12:39 am

» Daily Stock Market Update
by Insights Equity Thu Apr 18, 2019 6:17 pm

» Sri Lanka Hilton Hotels Must Investigate or Oust Unfit and Improper - Kashmi App Bankrupted Sanjiv Alles who hides about his Career in Kashmi for Colombo Hilton Hotel Director Profile
by AmalHoole Thu Apr 18, 2019 12:47 pm

» Why ALHP is having a huge demand despite consecutive losses?
by wisdom79 Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:03 am

» TIME TO LOOK AEL
by sanjulanka Wed Apr 17, 2019 6:42 pm

» HEXP next run up to 120-130
by nishjaya Wed Apr 17, 2019 12:21 pm

» Cabinet nod for Colombo Stock Exchange to be converted to a company limited by shares
by glad Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:30 am

» Lanka Bell to be acquired by Mobitel - Sources
by soileconomy Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:07 am

» Sri Lanka Watapota (WAPO) Guardian Capital lose Rs. 10 Mn of Funds because of Kashmi App Closed down, Kashmi Co-Founder Bankrupt Sanjiv Alles now landed on Hilton Colombo Director Board owned by Yahapalana Government
by AmalHoole Tue Apr 16, 2019 3:17 pm

» සුභ අලුත් අවුරුද්දක් වේවා.
by sanjulanka Mon Apr 15, 2019 12:38 pm

» I bought PCHH.N and SING.N sometimes back?
by hammurabi Mon Apr 15, 2019 12:14 pm

» Highest temperature hike after 128 years in sri lanka
by nimantha80 Sun Apr 14, 2019 4:47 pm

» DEBTS FREE AAIC MUST MOVE UP,3.36BN FROFIT, MARCH Q 1.00BN
by wisdom79 Sun Apr 14, 2019 8:15 am

» VONE , is it time to sell or holds
by Uaecoindubai Sat Apr 13, 2019 1:27 pm

» HVA WILL THEY RECTIFY THE REGULATORS QUARIES BEFORE DEAD LINE?
by nimantha80 Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:12 pm

» NDB Leasing Centers open at Gampaha, Negombo
by Uaecoindubai Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:17 pm

» I met Karuna Today.
by Uaecoindubai Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:15 pm

» Look APLA its trending to 98LKR
by Uaecoindubai Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:13 pm

» ROYAL CERAMIC (RCL)
by Yahapalanaya Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:11 pm

» Look BPPL company
by Uaecoindubai Thu Apr 11, 2019 10:10 am

» PABC.N0000 ? Will come down to Rs. 11 - 12 level?
by Uaecoindubai Wed Apr 10, 2019 5:13 pm

» Any news on MBSL.N0000
by Uaecoindubai Wed Apr 10, 2019 4:56 pm

» New NDB Privilege Banking and Leasing Centres open in Kurunegala
by Soilconomy Wed Apr 10, 2019 11:30 am

» TIME TO WATCH - LOFC - BFN
by Uaecoindubai Wed Apr 10, 2019 11:20 am

» ශ්‍රිලංකාවේ ණය බරතාවය. Sri Lanka's Debt Trap
by soileconomy Wed Apr 10, 2019 7:28 am

» 2019 revised traffic fines
by Uaecoindubai Tue Apr 09, 2019 12:47 pm

» LLUB Surprise
by hammurabi Mon Apr 08, 2019 9:29 pm

You are not connected. Please login or register

Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Stock-Picking using discounted cash flow analysis

Stock-Picking using discounted cash flow analysis

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Doing basic fundamental valuation is quite straightforward; all it takes is a little time and energy. The goal of analyzing a company's fundamentals is to find a stock's intrinsic value, a fancy term for what you believe a stock is really worth - as opposed to the value at which it is being traded in the marketplace. If the intrinsic value is more than the current share price, your analysis is showing that the stock is worth more than its price and that it makes sense to buy the stock.

Although there are many different methods of finding the intrinsic value, the premise behind all the strategies is the same: a company is worth the sum of its discounted cash flows. In plain English, this means that a company is worth all of its future profits added together. And these future profits must be discounted to account for the time value of money, that is, the force by which the $1 you receive in a year's time is worth less than $1 you receive today.

The idea behind intrinsic value equaling future profits makes sense if you think about how a business provides value for its owner(s). If you have a small business, its worth is the money you can take from the company year after year (not the growth of the stock). And you can take something out of the company only if you have something left over after you pay for supplies and salaries, reinvest in new equipment, and so on. A business is all about profits, plain old revenue minus expenses - the basis of intrinsic value.

Greater Fool Theory
One of the assumptions of the discounted cash flow theory is that people are rational, that nobody would buy a business for more than its future discounted cash flows. Since a stock represents ownership in a company, this assumption applies to the stock market. But why, then, do stocks exhibit such volatile movements? It doesn't make sense for a stock's price to fluctuate so much when the intrinsic value isn't changing by the minute.

The fact is that many people do not view stocks as a representation of discounted cash flows, but as trading vehicles. Who cares what the cash flows are if you can sell the stock to somebody else for more than what you paid for it? Cynics of this approach have labeled it the greater fool theory, since the profit on a trade is not determined by a company's value, but about speculating whether you can sell to some other investor (the fool). On the other hand, a trader would say that investors relying solely on fundamentals are leaving themselves at the mercy of the market instead of observing its trends and tendencies.

This debate demonstrates the general difference between a technical and fundamental investor. A follower of technical analysis is guided not by value, but by the trends in the market often represented in charts. So, which is better: fundamental or technical? The answer is neither. As we mentioned in the introduction, every strategy has its own merits. In general, fundamental is thought of as a long-term strategy, while technical is used more for short-term strategies.

Putting Theory into Practice
The idea of discounting cash flows seems okay in theory, but implementing it in real life is difficult. One of the most obvious challenges is determining how far into the future we should forecast cash flows. It's hard enough to predict next year's profits, so how can we predict the course of the next 10 years? What if a company goes out of business? What if a company survives for hundreds of years? All of these uncertainties and possibilities explain why there are many different models devised for discounting cash flows, but none completely escapes the complications posed by the uncertainty of the future.

Let's look at a sample of a model used to value a company. Because this is a generalized example, don't worry if some details aren't clear. The purpose is to demonstrate the bridging between theory and application. Take a look at how valuation based on fundamentals would look:


Stock-Picking using discounted cash flow analysis _fun_1

The problem with projecting far into the future is that we have to account for the different rates at which a company will grow as it enters different phases. To get around this problem, this model has two parts: (1) determining the sum of the discounted future cash flows from each of the next five years (years one to five), and (2) determining 'residual value', which is the sum of the future cash flows from the years starting six years from now.




In this particular example, the company is assumed to grow at 15% a year for the first five years and then 5% every year after that (year six and beyond). First, we add together all the first five yearly cash flows - each of which are discounted to year zero, the present - in order to determine the present value (PV). So once the present value of the company for the first five years is calculated, we must, in the second stage of the model, determine the value of the cash flows coming from the sixth year and all the following years, when the company's growth rate is assumed to be 5%. The cash flows from all these years are discounted back to year five and added together, then discounted to year zero, and finally combined with the PV of the cash flows from years one to five (which we calculated in the first part of the model). And voilà! We have an estimate (given our assumptions) of the intrinsic value of the company. An estimate that is higher than the current market capitalization indicates that it may be a good buy. Below, we have gone through each component of the model with specific notes:


  1. Prior-year cash flow - The theoretical amount, or total profits, that the shareholders could take from the company the previous year.
  2. Growth rate - The rate at which owner's earnings are expected to grow for the next five years.
  3. Cash flow - The theoretical amount that shareholders would get if all the company's earnings, or profits, were distributed to them.
  4. Discount factor - The number that brings the future cash flows back to year zero. In other words, the factor used to determine the cash flows' present value (PV).
  5. Discount per year - The cash flow multiplied by the discount factor.
  6. Cash flow in year five - The amount the company could distribute to shareholders in year five.
  7. Growth rate - The growth rate from year six into perpetuity.
  8. Cash flow in year six - The amount available in year six to distribute to shareholders.
  9. Capitalization Rate - The discount rate (the denominator) in the formula for a constantly growing perpetuity.
  10. Value at the end of year five - The value of the company in five years.
  11. Discount factor at the end of year five - The discount factor that converts the value of the firm in year five into the present value.
  12. PV of residual value - The present value of the firm in year five.

tkc

tkc
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Bookmarked for reading. Rep+

Back to top  Message [Page 1 of 1]

Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum