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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » World Stock markets in wild party and CSE is begging in street

World Stock markets in wild party and CSE is begging in street

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prasa2004


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Last 3W we witness huge rally in all the markets in world. DOW is nearing 20,000 and NIKKEI is closing on 19,000. Hangseng breached  23000 and other markets also rising like no tom. It is very unfortunate CSE is in utter state having a thallu start and then going on reverse gear again. Whats wrong? Where have our investors gone? Countries in bad shape also rallied like PK, Bangladesh and Brazil. CSE needs lot to catch up. Lets hope next 02 weeks some sanity

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-08/trump-win-set-off-2-trillion-shock-rotation-to-stocks-from-debt

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
Is the political agendas keeping CSE at bay?

Chinwi

avatar
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
prassa2004 wrote:Whats wrong? Where have our investors gone?


We don't need investors. We have invertebrates. With their invasion all the investors gone elsewhere.

Now the newest trend is, not to sent Dollars earned by those who work abroad. Keep as much as possible in outer places.

Invertebrates step by step created this situation by starting BOP crisis by stopping development work and blocking Chinaman's money inflow.
Then Tax , Super gain Tax, tax you money etc.
Easy way is to print money, if gone beyond the safe limit can create problems to issued bonds and their current holders too.

Domino effect everywhere.

Gallardo


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
i think the numbers are quite favourable as many of our companies have attactive PEs and prospects while we as a market have gone down.  The narrative and obsession with foreign buy and sells have also dictated moods here helping exaggerate the selling this time.  The story is always - Foreign selling!  Then panic ensues and some collect at huge discounts before proclaiming the positives about to flood the market. 

Being such a small, insignificant, illiquid market contributes to a lack of buying by foreign institutions.   Which in turn makes me wonder whether we have an overweight position on the decisions of foreign institutions which frequently dictate our market direction.   Foreign funds here are so small in number even at their peak activity levels compared to our peers.  They are subject to group policy exit directions and focus.  They are especially subjected to the strengthening dollar to rupee ratio which erodes their gains on stocks here.  So when foreign exits occur for such reasons, we should not take it as a no confidence motion on our market or companies.   

We have our confidence already eroded by policy uncertainty, government stability and the frequent street protests and carnage pushing our moods low by default.   Look outside the box and invest on value, not just sentiment!

nimantha80


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Api inne aba gediyaka hadaya gaththe ratene

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
Some times the lack of retail interest could be the decisive force. At the moment the one year TB rate is 10.6% which is risk free and if an investor choose to invest in TBs continuously then their pay back is less than 10 years.

Current market PE is 13.3x means the pay back period is more than 13 years. I think this is the main decisive point.

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
CSE is begging in the street b'cos of bad planets combination ruling the country. 

Teller

avatar
Moderator
Due to currency depreciation invest in Treasury bills and fixed deposits are not worth but invest on shares can give a hidden return based on asset re valuation

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Perpet Bondy, Commisnathan, Failkaralingam & Chariotwatta led by Rahu & Shani have put the CSE to beg in the streets. However CSE is performing better than SSE (somalia Stock Exchange). CB Foreign reserves are on the decline, be happy and enjoy the long weekend. Cheers!

Chinwi

avatar
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@samaritan wrote:Perpet Bondy, Commisnathan, Failkaralingam & Chariotwatta led by Rahu & Shani have put the CSE to beg in the streets. However CSE is performing better than SSE (somalia Stock Exchange). CB Foreign reserves are on the decline, be happy and enjoy the long weekend. Cheers!


Any normal person should know we lose millions of brain cells with the aging.

One can perform well and take good decisions many decades ago but when he reach old age his performances can go bad.

I knew Paskaralingam, Rathwaththe and Weerasuriya when they were at key places in UNP in 1977 era.

They were the real rulers of the country. No one could challenged them. They did strong management and even MPs had no power to challenge their decisions.

But that was 40 years ago.

The problem of UNP leaders at the moment is they are still living in 1970s . They should know 2016-1977 = 40 - 1

How can old aged decayed brains perform similar to a brain 40 years younger than them ? Old man's brain cannot process complex data flows like it did 40 years ago.
Not like those days, now data are coming lighting faster and from many directions in many forms. Decayed brains cannot sustain these kinds of new situations even though they have decades of experience.

I saw Mr Werasuriya becoming emotional during a TV interview . That proves my argument. He was a very tough man those days. Pasky and Charitha were same. No comments for Shyiyan.

We are talking about a fast developing nation in this 21st century but the country is handled by old aged seeyas of Royal College -and one motta fat Thomian is making it worst-

dennam jambu


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
you have mentioned only about old "royal seeyas". what about  our remote royalist " heen baba seeya"?.   regarding the cry of weerasuriya seeya , i think he was very upset because he cannot pretend as a clean professional  man any more.why he was flown from Australia to manage the mahaapola fund.All  these vultures fly from all around the globe singapore, australia etc to sri lanka  to manage the big  funds of   srilankans because they want to manage them well and give very big returns to us , heh heh ..

Ryan Hudson


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
What you say about government is true, but we can not go on with loss making SOEs, so selling is an option to recover. only thing is this goverment may suffer heavy defeat in the lg elections as they are very divided now over bond scam, IGP issue FCID and many

the only hope is national reconcilliation with new constitutioin, if that fails another war starts, these guys should have some policy, over to you dr coomaraswamy,  you seem to be only person with a rational in this goverment

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Ryan Hudson wrote:What you say about government is true, but we can not go on with loss making SOEs, so selling is an option to recover. only thing is this goverment may suffer heavy defeat in the lg elections as they are very divided now over bond scam, IGP issue FCID and many

the only hope is national reconcilliation with new constitutioin, if that fails another war starts, these guys should have some policy, over to you dr coomaraswamy,  you seem to be only person with a rational in this goverment
The chances are that the new constitution making may be delayed owing to failure to reach consensus by all stakeholders. After all, an age old illness can never have a quick fix. If that was so the problem could have been resolved by former leaders. I recall when CBK made an attempt towards some form of resolution, the UNPers thwarted her efforts. If its delayed we will not get GSP+ which can have a bearing on the sectors that are dependant on GSP+ to enhance their profitability. In the mean time if govt goes ahead with the Chinese investments the nation's economy could be on the path of recovery and hence serve as a boost to CSE. This is my personal opinion only.

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
More tensions throughout the country be expected as top guys simply bend the law & order. Extravagant expenses, non ending corruption & poor fiscal management push the economy towards negative direction. 

Currency depreciation rises. IMF rule to slash the swaps taken into reserve diminish the account further. Much talked of FED rate hike comes soon. Altogether future looks miserable with no detergent actions taken.

Retailers lost most of their investments in the past few months forming their re-entry volume dubious or delayed. So long awaiting high performance of the CSE lose velocity but move on in slow pace till corrections are placed in.

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Country's entire economic decision making system is politicized - CB Governor.
https://www.pressreader.com/sri-lanka/daily-mirror-sri-lanka/20161209/textview

unquote:
In this backdrop i will not be surprised if the CB Governor tenders his resignation in the near future.

prasa2004


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Guys
I am envy seeing the Santa rally in full swing in other markets at this moment continuing unabated. This was going on for last 3-4 W. Where are we CSE? Got hammered 2015/2016 and now seeing a BIG HAMMER on our heads in 2017. Weekend newspapers gave a gruesome picture of coming economic tornado ( Shipping lines pulling out/03 elections next year/Hambantota agreement challenged/Reserves shrinking/IMF rate hike recommendation and OIL is soaring and this will again push us to corner). When will our NATO leaders do their Act? Enough is enough. silently we cannot suffer. Suggest we use social media (at least FBs of Leaders/TWITTERS) to vent our anger and make them awake? 

As for the Hambatota saga, why cant Malik and Amunugama hold a press briefing and answer all doubts/queries and make the stand clear instead of issuing press notices? Shame

nimantha80


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@prasa2004 wrote:Guys
I am envy seeing the Santa rally in full swing in other markets at this moment continuing unabated. This was going on for last 3-4 W. Where are we CSE? Got hammered 2015/2016 and now seeing a BIG HAMMER on our heads in 2017. Weekend newspapers gave a gruesome picture of coming economic tornado ( Shipping lines pulling out/03 elections next year/Hambantota agreement challenged/Reserves shrinking/IMF rate hike recommendation and OIL is soaring and this will again push us to corner). When will our NATO leaders do their Act? Enough is enough. silently we cannot suffer. Suggest we use social media (at least FBs of Leaders/TWITTERS) to vent our anger and make them awake? 

As for the Hambatota saga, why cant Malik and Amunugama hold a press briefing and answer all doubts/queries and make the stand clear instead of issuing press notices? Shame
Loketa weeraya wela sanctions watila mannokka kanawata wada meka hodai.No one can argue because we know what would have been the outcome of dictator rule.

Chinwi

avatar
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
අද මේ රජය පත්වී ඇති තත්ත්වයට මුලික හේතුව සරල අංක ගණිතය නොදැනීම​.
මහ ලොකු ආර්ථික ඔස්තාර් ල , පී එච් ඩී කාරයො ඉන්නවලු. ඒ ත් කැල් එකේ ගානක් හදා ගන්න බැරි උනා.

රජයේ සේවකයන් 1.4 මිලියන් x 10,000 x 12 = ?  
මේ සරල ගාන හදල බලපු නැති නිසා තමයි සුපර් ටැක්ස්, ඩබල් ටැක්ස් , වැට් අරව මේව ඔක්කොම වෙලා අද ඉන්න අන්ත දුර්වල තැනට කඩාගෙන වැටුනෙ.

දැන් ඉතින් මොන බයිල කිව්වත් වැඩක් නෑ. තේරෙන මිනිස්සු දැනගත්ත මොනවත් බැරි බව​.  ගණන් පේල් එකටත් කලින් රජයට බනින එක විතරයි දන්නෙ.


ඒ අස්සේ ලංකාවෙ මිනිස්සුන්ට සාපයක් වැදිල වගේ හැසිරෙනව​.
දේශපාලන බලය ලබන හොඳ මිනිසුන් පවා පිස්සු නටන්න පටන් ගන්නෙව​.
ඉතා බුද්ධිමත්ව විසඳ ගන්න තියන සමහර දේවල්  විහින් කා ගන්නව​.  


නේවි එකේ මහත්වරුන්  විසින් ඉතා බුද්ධිමත්ව නිරායුධ මිනිසුන් සමූහයක් ඉවත් කරමින් සිටියදී ඒ මැද්දට පැනපු කෙනෙක් ඒකට කරන වැඩේ. ලෝක නාවික ඉතිහාසයේ කලු පැල්ලමක් එක් කලා.

ඇයි මෙහෙම වෙන්නේ  ?



නාවික හමුදාවේ සෙබලුන් ගේ විනය ගරුක කාරුණික වැදගත් හැසිරීම ට අපේ උපහාරය​.
 ඒ මැද්දට පැන   කිරි හැලියට ගොං බෙට්ටක් හෙලූ  කැප්ටන් හැඩොක්  වැනි  තඩියා  ගැන කුමන කතාද  ?  

(සමහරු කියනව ඒ හමුදාවෙ ඉහලම නිලය ලු. ඒක කොහොමටවත් වෙන්න බෑ.  කුමන රටක හෝ  නේවි එකක කමාන්ඩර්  කිසිම දිනක මෙහෙම මිනිස්සු අස්සෙ දඟලන්න​ එන්නෙ නෑ. ඔහු රටේ ජාතික​ ආරක්‍ෂාවට තර්ජනයක් ආවොත් හමුදාවට ප්‍රහාරික අණ දෙන්න ඉහලම ආරක්‍ෂාව ඇතුව ඉන්නවා මිසක්.)

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Peacetime heroics Navy Commander Vice Admiral Ravi Wijayagunaratne and his men manhandling The Island correspondent Roshan Gunasekera at the Hambantota Port. Pic by Dilip N Jayasekera

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