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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » REAL ESTATE BUBBLE IN COLOMBO & SUBURBS

REAL ESTATE BUBBLE IN COLOMBO & SUBURBS

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1 REAL ESTATE BUBBLE IN COLOMBO & SUBURBS on Thu Jan 26, 2017 8:35 pm

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Many rising new apartments are coming up in Colombo city & nearby suburbs. Price ranging from starting from Rs. 28m over for semi, luxury & super luxury categories. Surprisingly most high end, luxury units are fully sold out at the time of project launching. Few remain in semi luxury category but at higher quote as construction goes on.


Real estate market has become popular with high competitiveness venture owned by influential top class businessman. Seems to be business is highly profitable as one square feet cost starting from Rs.25,000/=.Entire scenario depicts the picture of inequality of revenue distribution while ordinary citizens the majority shoulders heavy taxes on consumables.



Unconfirmed news reveal that rich class invests on apartments exiting from capital market because of high profit earned within a short time. So what happens to our economy the time, may be sooner or later, if the bubble is burst?

2 Re: REAL ESTATE BUBBLE IN COLOMBO & SUBURBS on Thu Jan 26, 2017 10:34 pm

Chinwi

avatar
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
I have no firm idea. It looks like bubble forming.

Few weeks ago an experienced  person  engaged in same business in a Middle East  talked with me about  Colombo real estate prices. He said now it has reached peak.

He warned to a person who came here (while working in Dubai) to buy an apartment paying 32.5 million . Somehow that person did the deal.

He said what they experienced in Dubai 7-8 years ago can  repeat  here although in smaller scale.

In Dubai investing in apartments before starting the construction  was a lucrative business.  At mid stage of construction people could sell their units with 100% profit to another investor. Then they buy many other new units similar way using that money to sell midway.
Those who bought at mid stages also made 100% profit by selling them at doubled prices after construction.  
The story continued until finished apartment prices soared to  sky levels and buyers diminished because no one could afford those high prices. 2009 crisis made it worst.

Many people trapped somewhere. Many others left the system at right time with millions in their pockets.

There were some sad stories also.
An Australian guy , came to know about the lucrative real estate business sold his house in native land and bought an apartment in palm j... paying 17 million AED . That was the peak and then within few months selling prices of the same type of villas came down to 8 million.

Before that, in around 2001 , when they were launching  palm jumeirah, pre-launch sales prices vent over 25 million for big villas. Well known celebrities  bought properties at that price.
Then in late 2007 the prices came down to 15 million and during economic crisis, they were marketing rest of the villas at 10 million AED.

IN SRI Lanka also  many  people are buying several apartments together at pre-launch prices just to sell them at mid stage or after construction..

3 Re: REAL ESTATE BUBBLE IN COLOMBO & SUBURBS on Fri Jan 27, 2017 6:36 am

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Thanks Chinwi.

Good illustration for those who plan to acquire an apartment. Be vigilant before investing.
There must be a system that authorities should closely monitor & warn the public before bursting the bubble as it brings negative effects to economy.

4 Re: REAL ESTATE BUBBLE IN COLOMBO & SUBURBS on Fri Jan 27, 2017 8:49 am

hotstock


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
It has reached the peak and looks like there could be a burst very soon..when everyone talks about it, it becomes a reality..

Also apartment builders market the 'sea view' / 'land view' but the view lasts until the next builder builds one left right and front...some people get trapped at one point..

5 Re: REAL ESTATE BUBBLE IN COLOMBO & SUBURBS on Fri Jan 27, 2017 10:27 pm

anges


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
not only in colombo in general the whole of western province is highly over valued ! this was told by an professional valuer ! plus port city will add more land into colombo ! in general real estate would drop by 20% to 30% plus if interest rates go up it drop further 10% ! do your own calculations .you will get an idea ! 
dont rely on anyone !

6 Re: REAL ESTATE BUBBLE IN COLOMBO & SUBURBS on Sat Jan 28, 2017 11:04 am

reyaz

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I have been observing realestate for a while now and trust me, this is not a bubble - this is still a half inflated basket ball. It will never stop inflating (unless another war starts)

7 Re: REAL ESTATE BUBBLE IN COLOMBO & SUBURBS on Sat Jan 28, 2017 11:30 am

Chinwi

avatar
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@reyaz wrote:I have been observing realestate for a while now and trust me, this is not a bubble - this is still a half inflated basket ball. It will never stop inflating (unless another war starts)

Possible. Only if the majority of the buyers are investing for a home.

If this change to an investment vehicle similar to stock trading then the trouble starts.

If the majority invest in pre-launch or mid stage apartments to sell them in 12-24 month then the escalating prices may reduce actual buyers.

If many people are investing to sell and real buyers diminish then at a particular point the news should explode and everybody will try to sell creating havoc.

To determine actual situation we have to have real data on current projects. We can see construction going on many places and it has been a lucrative business up to now.

8 Re: REAL ESTATE BUBBLE IN COLOMBO & SUBURBS on Sat Jan 28, 2017 8:04 pm

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Those who live out of Colombo wish to have a permanent residence near to capital for schooling, job convenience, medical facility etc.. Land scarcity Just outside of Colombo has skyrocketed the price. It pushes people go for apartments. Real estates profitability is extremely high as they increase the price as construction goes on. But demand goes on further.

One real estate executive told me high end properties are exposed to the burst soon as number of foreigners come in for investment purpose is not that much expected.
Any comments......

9 Re: REAL ESTATE BUBBLE IN COLOMBO & SUBURBS on Sun Jan 29, 2017 9:50 am

samaritan


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@worthiness wrote:Those who live out of Colombo wish to have a permanent residence near to capital for schooling, job convenience, medical facility etc.. Land scarcity Just outside of Colombo has skyrocketed the price. It pushes people go for apartments. Real estates profitability is extremely high as they increase the price as construction goes on. But demand goes on further.

One real estate executive told me high end properties are exposed to the burst soon as number of foreigners come in for investment purpose is not that much expected.
Any comments......
You are right. According to bigwigs in this sector, the demand for high end apartments is shrinking and expected to take a hit this year. But the demand for mid to lower range is expected to sustain.

10 Re: REAL ESTATE BUBBLE IN COLOMBO & SUBURBS on Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:11 pm

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Are buyers of apartments liable for 2% of nation building tax on purchase value. No developers are well conversed with tax implications. 
Very unfortunate that how they do marketing without advising the real picture of tax to be borne by the buyer.

11 Re: REAL ESTATE BUBBLE IN COLOMBO & SUBURBS on Tue Jan 31, 2017 12:55 pm

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
According to studies Sri Lanka has an excess supply in up market apartments. Risk of falling down of prices is not remote.

12 Re: REAL ESTATE BUBBLE IN COLOMBO & SUBURBS on Tue Jan 31, 2017 10:50 pm

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
At the time of launching the projects it shows that at least 50% of units are sold irrespective of semi, luxury or super luxury. Apparently early reservation indicates there is a substantial wealthy class in the country than we think.
Perhaps it could be a false propaganda just to create an artificial demand oriented market for vertical living.

13 Re: REAL ESTATE BUBBLE IN COLOMBO & SUBURBS on Thu Feb 09, 2017 12:32 am

Chinwi

avatar
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
...   Dominic McVey  , Hela Clothing :


"There is  a lot of opportunity in Sri Lanka but a lot of it is not grasped yet.

A lot of people are going for the easy opportunities like building hotels and apartment blocks. How are you going to fill these apartments?
Now, I’m not against development and I believe the city needs investments to evolve, but there are so many apartments and who is going to buy them?

Are you going to fill them with Chinese or Brits? How is the economy going to benefit? It will only benefit the people who built them.

Are we encouraging our businessmen and entrepreneurs to invest their money in the right areas? We have so many people building hotels because the government said there is going to be a tourism boom here, but SriLankan Airlines has cut half its flights to the tourist destination.

We don’t have enough planes coming into the country, and the airport cannot cope with the capacity.
So how are we going to fill these rooms? It’s the real basics here and we are pushing certain opportunities that aren’t necessarily finite."

Link is here

----quote ends ---

Our foolish politicians - and surprisingly policy makers too - do not know how to value a national airline.  They just compere amount spent and amount earned and shouting 'loss making' .
Then  selling it to an outsider is the only remedy they know.  


Recently they announce 2 million tourists came here due to promotions done by Sri Lnkan Airlines arranging code sharing with others.

No one calculated the amount spent inside the country by those people.

----

Dominic McVey, 22, became a millionaire at 15 by importing micro-scooters. He is now in pharmaceuticals, and his company Cosmagenics specialises in distribution and marketing of cosmetics. He is the owner of Hela Clothing Sri Lanka.

"At 13, I was looking for Visa on Yahoo! but spelt it wrongly and discovered Viza, a 'push-scooter' company based in Arizona. "
The man I contacted there said: "Buy five and I'll give you one for free."
The result was : I sold 11 million scooters; I used to send a container a week to Japan.

I was a pain in the backside.
I took a thermometer into the mock GCSEs and, as it showed 16C, they had to cancel the exams because of health and safety rules. They were not happy!

At 14, I managed to pay for my first-class ticket to Japan, where I was looking at various business opportunities.

The school deputy head hated me. He would walk round the school saying: "Boy! Why are you smiling?"
"Because I have just sold 10,000 scooters," I said. !

I also used to say: "School should be a happy environment," but he would say: "No, it's not, you're here to learn."


By the time he was 15, Dominic had a reported 15 million pounds. For Dominic, he says it was better for him to deal with companies over the internet because he never told them is age and they did not find out.

They did not know the person on the other side of the computer was a 13th year old boy who was having his cheques singed by his mother. Most companies would be unwilling to conduct business with anyone below the age of 21.


14 Re: REAL ESTATE BUBBLE IN COLOMBO & SUBURBS on Thu Feb 09, 2017 10:38 am

ice4083


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Apart from priced there is going to be a huge infrastructure crisis, a drought would cut water to Colombo city, and many apartments do not have storage capacities more than a few days.

15 Re: REAL ESTATE BUBBLE IN COLOMBO & SUBURBS on Thu Feb 09, 2017 11:21 am

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Weather is unpredictable due to global heating factor. Anytime heavy pouring is to be expected ending long drought situation.
Predictions are always uncertain.

16 Re: REAL ESTATE BUBBLE IN COLOMBO & SUBURBS on Sat Feb 11, 2017 10:33 am

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Few verify the floor area given at the time of project launching. Once surveyed after project completion, specified square feet or meters are short but not compensated back. Another cheating business.

17 Re: REAL ESTATE BUBBLE IN COLOMBO & SUBURBS on Sat Feb 11, 2017 10:33 am

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Few verify the floor area given at the time of project launching. Once surveyed after project completion, specified square feet or meters are short but not compensated back. Another cheating business.

18 Re: REAL ESTATE BUBBLE IN COLOMBO & SUBURBS on Sat Feb 11, 2017 9:41 pm

Quibit

avatar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Suburbs real estate bubble is true. Time to leave stocks and to get into real estate. Today's sad state of the stock market

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