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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » ALUM or TJL

ALUM or TJL

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1 ALUM or TJL on Fri Jan 27, 2017 12:06 am

ifenny

avatar
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
With current market sentiment and considering two different industries/markets they are operating, which counter out of ALUM and TJL will give highest return if entered at current price level ? Expert analysis appreciated.

2 Re: ALUM or TJL on Fri Jan 27, 2017 6:40 am

Rifanmoh


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
ALUM could be recommended. TJL is to face decline next couple of weeks. May be we could collect at Rs. 37 to 38 mid February.



Last edited by Rifanmoh on Fri Jan 27, 2017 6:42 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Typo)

3 Re: ALUM or TJL on Fri Jan 27, 2017 8:17 am

jayathu


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
According financials ALUM for sure. ALUM beats TJL is dividend yield, PE ratio, PB ratio and GP margin.

4 Re: ALUM or TJL on Fri Jan 27, 2017 1:21 pm

asitha1952


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@jayathu wrote:According financials ALUM for sure. ALUM beats TJL is dividend yield, PE ratio, PB ratio and GP margin.
yeap  unofficial news came from my friend 3rd Quarter  profit increase over 30%....ENJOY RIDE...

5 Re: ALUM or TJL on Fri Jan 27, 2017 2:07 pm

ifenny

avatar
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Thank you for your feedback. Started collecting.

6 Re: ALUM or TJL on Fri Feb 03, 2017 6:09 pm

suddera

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Rifanmoh wrote:ALUM could be recommended. TJL is to face decline next couple of weeks. May be we could collect at Rs. 37 to 38 mid February.

It seems to be you are correct.
What is the reason behing TJL decline.

7 Re: ALUM or TJL on Fri Feb 03, 2017 6:14 pm

kumarweerarathne

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
End of TJL tax holyday datz da reason, but this is an amazing company with good management, It will rise even without GSP. Gud buy frnds.

8 Re: ALUM or TJL on Fri Feb 03, 2017 6:26 pm

Rifanmoh


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@suddera wrote:
@Rifanmoh wrote:ALUM could be recommended. TJL is to face decline next couple of weeks. May be we could collect at Rs. 37 to 38 mid February.

It seems to be you are correct.
What is the reason behing TJL decline.

Simple logic. TJL has always been trading far above its fair value. This is because the company was showing very good growth in profit quarter on quarter. So investors placed much higher value than its present fair value. 

Same with GRAN. I predicted GRAN to reach Rs. 75 and has written the same in another post in this forum. And it happened as well.

When a sudden decline was seen in profit, all lose their mind and start selling. So price falls like nothing. 

I predict TJL to report a decline in profit in the next quarter also. If the GPS+ confirmation doesn't come before the release of Q4 financials, you will see TJL trading below Rs. 30.

9 Re: ALUM or TJL on Fri Feb 03, 2017 8:23 pm

Brinthan

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Rifanmoh wrote:
@suddera wrote:
@Rifanmoh wrote:ALUM could be recommended. TJL is to face decline next couple of weeks. May be we could collect at Rs. 37 to 38 mid February.

It seems to be you are correct.
What is the reason behing TJL decline.

Simple logic. TJL has always been trading far above its fair value. This is because the company was showing very good growth in profit quarter on quarter. So investors placed much higher value than its present fair value. 

Same with GRAN. I predicted GRAN to reach Rs. 75 and has written the same in another post in this forum. And it happened as well.

When a sudden decline was seen in profit, all lose their mind and start selling. So price falls like nothing. 

I predict TJL to report a decline in profit in the next quarter also. If the GPS+ confirmation doesn't come before the release of Q4 financials, you will see TJL trading below Rs. 30.


Rifanmoh i know ur intend....But we are not fools to sell our assets with loss or small profit.....Is Gran decline its profit ...or TJL decline its profit...For TJL  the reason was their tax holiday is finished from their last quarter....See their Revenue it will increase quarter by quarter....Don't mislead investors....

10 Re: ALUM or TJL on Fri Feb 03, 2017 8:27 pm

Suranga malli

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Brinthan wrote:
@Rifanmoh wrote:
@suddera wrote:
@Rifanmoh wrote:ALUM could be recommended. TJL is to face decline next couple of weeks. May be we could collect at Rs. 37 to 38 mid February.

It seems to be you are correct.
What is the reason behing TJL decline.

Simple logic. TJL has always been trading far above its fair value. This is because the company was showing very good growth in profit quarter on quarter. So investors placed much higher value than its present fair value. 

Same with GRAN. I predicted GRAN to reach Rs. 75 and has written the same in another post in this forum. And it happened as well.

When a sudden decline was seen in profit, all lose their mind and start selling. So price falls like nothing. 

I predict TJL to report a decline in profit in the next quarter also. If the GPS+ confirmation doesn't come before the release of Q4 financials, you will see TJL trading below Rs. 30.


Rifanmoh i know ur intend....But we are not fools to sell our assets with loss or small profit.....Is Gran decline its profit ...or TJL decline its profit...For TJL  the reason was their tax holiday is finished from their last quarter....See their Revenue it will increase quarter by quarter....Don't mislead investors....

Dear friends don't belive hora thambiyo.....

11 Re: ALUM or TJL on Fri Feb 03, 2017 9:05 pm

Rifanmoh


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Truth often tastes bitter. 


Study the last quarter financials. Exiting tax holidays is just one reason for the decline in profit. Another important reason is drop in GP margins. This too explained in the management review. They accept lower margin orders in a strategic view of increasing market share. This strategy is to bring benefits in mid to long term. 


While this sort of decline in profit is really short term oriented, chances are high that this impact will be seen in Q4 as well. 

It's unfortunate that investors panic and sell the shares at whatever the price that is available. This reminds me the book Fooled by Randomness.

I sold most of shares after the release Q2 financials in which it was clearly stated in the management review that the company exits its tax holidays. It was clear to me at that time that the company to see decline next few quarters. 

No doubt that TJL is one of best shares in cse. I see it at above 60 levels in two years time. People with patients and holding ability are not going lose. But market is collective decision of thousands of buyers and sellers. So this fluctuation is inevitable. 

I replied in this topic as there was a request to advise which share to invest out of two options given. I knew the answer and replied. Simple as that.

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