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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Sri Lanka’s 2016 tea production, exports down, revenue up

Sri Lanka’s 2016 tea production, exports down, revenue up

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PrasannaMani

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Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
[size=33]Sri Lanka’s 2016 tea production, exports down, revenue up[/size]
Author LBO
Posted on January 26, 2017 | AgricultureFeatured


Jan 26, 2017 (LBO) – Sri Lanka’s tea exports for 2016 totaled 288.7M/kgs compared with 306.9M/kgs during 2015 showing, a decrease of 18.2M/kgs, a tea market report said.
“This records the lowest export volume since 2002 where total exports declined to 287.2M/kgs,” Forbes & Walker Tea Brokers said in their latest report.
When analyzing the categories of exports, only tea bags totaling 23M/kgs showed a marginal gain with 22.1M/kgs recorded from 2015.
“All other categories have shown a decrease when compared to the corresponding period of 2015.”
Overall, tea production totaled 292.36M/kgs showing a decrease of 36.41M/kgs compared with 328.17M/kgs of January- December 2015.
“This records the lowest production since 2009 when the total production declined to 288.8M/kgs.”
In revenue terms however 2016 tea exports realized 184.7 billion rupees recording a growth 2.7 billion rupees compared with 2015.
As a result the total FOB value showed a growth recording 639.88 rupees in 2016, a growth of 46.80 rupees, compared with 539.08 rupees in 2015.
[size=14]The full report follows 

Total Auction offerings were similar to last and totalled a 7.8M/kgs. Leafy Low Grown’s witnessed a mixed trend in demand. High Grown small leaf teas continued to encounter strong demand for the better quality teas whilst the plainer sorts declined in value. Perhaps the change in the market sentiment is a consequence to more favourable growing conditions in the plantations over the past couple of days – in anticipation of better availability in the short term. 
Ex-Estate offerings were similar to last and totalled a 1.2M/kgs. Once again, overall quality of teas on offer maintained a fairly useful standard. Western BOP/BOPF’s – best available gained Rs. 20/- per kg and substantially more for select invoices following special inquiry. In the below best category brighter BOP’s gained up to Rs. 20/- per kg whilst the corresponding BOPF’s were irregular and barely steady. Plainer clean leaf BOP’s were firm whilst the others tended easier. Corresponding BOPF’s were Rs. 10-20/- per kg lower. Nuwara Eliya’s – brighter BOP’s were up to Rs. 50/- per kg dearer whilst the others were barely steady. Corresponding BOPF’s declined up to Rs. 50/- per kg. Uva/Udapussellawa BOP’s were Rs. 20-30/- per kg lower whilst the corresponding BOPF’s were Rs. 20-40/- per kg easier. Liquoring leafy teas – a wider selection of teas on offer this week met with good demand and prices ranged between Rs. 750-1400/- per kg. 
Improved activity from shippers to UK, the Continent, China and Japan for the better liquoring teas whilst shippers to CIS continued to bid on a wider cross section of the teas.
Low Growns comprised of 3.4M/kgs in the Leafy/Tippy catalogues. There was good demand. In the Leafy catalogue BOP/OP1’s were fully firm to dearer whilst OP/OPA’s  too followed  similar trend. PEK/PEK1’s too maintained last levels with the teas at the lower end particularly gaining  by Rs.10-15/- per kg  at times. In the Tippy catalogue better  FBOP/FF1’s  though irregular  were fully firm  whilst the cleaner secondaries were firm  to irregularly  dearer following  quality. At the lower end  cleaner types maintained. Balance were lower. In the Premium catalogue  a selection of  small neat leaf  types maintained .Others were mostly lower. There was  good demand from shippers to  CIS, Dubai, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Turkey together with Kuwait.
SRI LANKA TEA PRODUCTION JANUARY – DECEMBER 2016
Lowest Since 2009
YOY total Production – Down 36.4M/kgs  
Sri Lanka Tea production totalled 292.36M/kgs showing a decrease of 36.41M/kgs  vi-a-vis 328.17M/kgs of January- December 2015.This records  the lowest  production since 2009 when the  total production declined  to 288.8M/kgs. High Grown  production  of 63.8M/kgs  for January –December 2016 show  a decrease  of 10.9M/kgs  vis-à-vis 74.8M/kgs  of January –December 2015 thus showing the lowest High Grown production since 1992 when only 53.7M/kgs was recorded.Medium Growns too totalling 42.7M/kgs have shown a decrease 6.05M/kgs vis-à-vis 48.7M/kgs of January-December 2015.Hereagain  this is  the lowest since 1992 when only 37.7M/kgs was recorded. Meanwhile Low Growns totalling 183.3M/kgs  have shown a decrease  of 18.8M/kgs  vis-à-vis 202.2M/kgs of January/December 2015.This too is the lowest since 2009 where total production declined to  173.M/kgs.
Low Grown CTC production is highest ever
CTC production for the period of January –December 2016 of  18.3M/kgs show a decrease of 1.1M/kgs vis-avis 19.4M/kgs  of January-December 2015.High Growns totaling 2.4M/kgs  have shown a 0.25M/kgs gain  vis –a-vis 2.2M/kgs.Low Growns too totalling 10.8M/kgs have shown a growth  of 0.7M/kgs vis-a-vis 10.1M/kgs of January-December 2015. The highest Low Grown CTC production improving on the previous best  which was recorded during the corresponding period  2015. Meanwhile Mediums totalling 5.01M/kgs have shown a decrease of 2.09M/kgs vis-à-vis 7.1M/kgs of January-December 2015.
SRI LANKA TEA EXPORTS JANUARY – DECEMBER 2016
Value – Up- Rs.2.7B in 2016  from Rs.182.05B in 2015 to Rs. 184.7B
Volume – Down 18.2M/kgs from 306.9M/kgs in 2015 to 288.7M/kgs in 2016
Sri Lanka tea exports  for  the period January – December 2016 totalled 288.7M/kgs  vis-à-vis 306.9M/kgs of January December 2015 showing a decrease of 18.2M/kgs. This records the lowest export volume since 2002 where total exports declined to 287.2M/kgs. When analyzing the categories of exports, only tea bags totalling 23M/kgs have shown a marginal gain  vis-à-vis 22.1M/kgs of January-December 2015, all other categories  have shown  a decrease  when compared  to the corresponding  period of 2015. Packeted tea totalling 134.3M/kgs  have shown a decrease  of 11.1M/kgs  vis-a-vis 145.4M/kgs of January – December 2015. Bulk tea totalling 125.1M/kgs have shown a  decrease  of 7.6M.kgs vis-a-vis 132.7M/kgs  of January – December 2015.
In revenue terms however January – December 2016  tea  exports realized Rs.184.7B recording  a growth  of Rs.2.7B vis-a-vis Rs.182B of January – December 2015. Consequently the total FOB value too showed a growth during January – December 2016 recording Rs.639.88 a growth of Rs.46.80 vis-à-vis Rs.539.08 in January – December 2015. Tea bags  totalling Rs.27.4B have shown  a gain of Rs.2.5B vis-à-vis Rs.24.9B  of January – December 2015 whilst bulk tea exports realized Rs.68.9B vis-a -vis  Rs.68.3B when compared to January – December 2015 showing a marginal gain although the volumes have shown a decrease. Packeted tea revenue however of Rs.79.5B show a marginal decrease  when compared  to Rs.80.4B  of January – December 2015.
Russia has emerged as the largest importer of Sri Lankan tea for the period January December 2016 followed by Iran and Iraq. It is relevant to note that Turkey has dropped to the 04[size=11]thPosition in 2016 from the 02nd position it held in 2015. Other  noteworthy importers  are U.A.E. , Libya and Syria. Meanwhile Kuwait has shown a significant decrease in volumes during the period under review whilst Jordan too has  shown a  decrease but to a lesser extent.[/size]
 [/size]

jayathu


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
As you have seen companies like WATA and ELPL will do well. They're more into Palm. In the case of tea, even though top line is reducing margin is improving due to higher auction prices. Rubber is still a sad story. You'll see KOTA and other plantation companies into rubber loosing badly.

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