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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Very bullish market

Very bullish market

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1 Very bullish market on Sat Jun 03, 2017 4:28 pm

reyaz

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
JKH Is an excellent choice, so is pap counter.

Your views

2 Re: Very bullish market on Sat Jun 03, 2017 6:21 pm

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
SAMP last Friday hit at Rs.300 level & bit reversed.

3 Re: Very bullish market on Sat Jun 03, 2017 9:11 pm

Teller

avatar
Moderator
Rupee is in a decline trend , foreigners are loosing their investments. If any one invested 1 USd @ Rs. 100 levels , now that foreigner has to sell RS.153/- to break even . It's a tragedy happening at the moment. Reuters forcast says 1 USD can appreciate Against RS.163/- levels soon. Imagine how much will be lost for foreigner.

4 Re: Very bullish market on Sat Jun 03, 2017 11:52 pm

kovida

avatar
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@Teller wrote:Rupee is in a decline trend , foreigners are loosing their investments.  If any one invested 1 USd @ Rs. 100 levels , now that foreigner has to sell RS.153/- to break even . It's a tragedy happening at the moment. Reuters forcast says 1 USD can appreciate Against RS.163/- levels soon. Imagine how much will be lost for foreigner.

I am puzzling as to why foreigners keep on buying our blue chips. Foreign buyers and their Fund Managers should be crazy  lot to dump their money . 
Do you think they  invest for short term gain ? 
Defenetly they must have analysed country's present economic situation and after 5 years where it is going to be .


Fluctutation and devaluation of currency is a short term senario.

-GSP + 
-Colombo Port City Project
-Florousing Tourism Industry 
-Mega Condominum Projects
-Expected completion of many high way projects
-Gradual picking up of our Traditional and Industrial exports
-Increase of Foreign remittences by Employees of Middle East and other countries
-Expected FDI inflow
-Hambantota Mega Development Project with Industrial Zone
-World oil and gas prices remaining at low prices and projection of low prices for another 5 years.
-Surge of other Stock Markets  at an unexpected rate,BSE,NIKKEI, HANSENG
-Projected reduction of budget dificit which would contribute to reduction of inflation and money printing
- New income tax act to enhance government collection ot taxes.

Where our currecny is going to be in next couple of years?


THINK INTELEGENTLY AND INVEST FOR FUTURE AS FOREIGNERS DO.

5 Re: Very bullish market on Sun Jun 04, 2017 12:56 am

deli

avatar
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@reyaz wrote:JKH Is an excellent choice, so is pap counter.

Your views

Now that the country is having rains, energy counters will have better future. Wink

6 Re: Very bullish market on Sun Jun 04, 2017 1:21 am

Teller

avatar
Moderator
https://tradingeconomics.com/sri-lanka/currency/forecast
Sri Lankan Rupee
The Sri Lankan Rupee is expected to trade at 153.00 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 158.00 in 12 months time.



1Y5Y10YMAX
Sri Lankan Rupee

Actual Data Alert Dash Embed



Forecast Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020 Unit
Currency 152 153 155 159 158 182
Sri Lankan Rupee Forecasts are projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model calibrated using our analysts expectations. We model the past behaviour of Sri Lankan Rupee using vast amounts of historical data and we adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account our analysts assessments and future expectations. The forecast for - Sri Lankan Rupee - was last predicted on Saturday, June 3, 2017.
Sri Lanka Markets Last Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 152 153 155 159 1 58 182
Stock Market 6689 6020 5960 5780 5840 4860

7 Re: Very bullish market on Sun Jun 04, 2017 1:32 am

Teller

avatar
Moderator
As per this analyse index can be dropped from 6689 to 5960 levels which is with in this year. In simply rupee depreciation means asset values are increasing which can be Gains for locals but foreigners point of view , they will be the loosers except invest in few counters. In this scenario high dividend yield companies can delver a significant chances.

8 Re: Very bullish market on Sun Jun 04, 2017 7:50 am

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
So Teller the market is going to be in a steady decline, is it lol! lol! lol!

9 Re: Very bullish market on Sun Jun 04, 2017 11:36 am

Teller

avatar
Moderator
As an investor I don't want to see that...so analyse yourself and decide dear..

10 Re: Very bullish market on Sun Jun 04, 2017 12:27 pm

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
jocolor flower afro

11 Re: Very bullish market on Sun Jun 04, 2017 1:54 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
I think they will sign H Port Agreement.
then IMF bail out.

non strategic SOE's selling next..


I dont see big issue. drop Market.

12 Re: Very bullish market on Sun Jun 04, 2017 2:00 pm

sisira.wijeweera


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@stockback wrote:I think they will sign H Port Agreement.
then IMF bail out.

non strategic SOE's selling next..


I dont see big issue. drop Market.
yes we can see ASI 6800 this week
this month it will up 7000
more forign buying will see

13 Re: Very bullish market on Sun Jun 04, 2017 2:25 pm

kovida

avatar
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@Teller wrote:https://tradingeconomics.com/sri-lanka/currency/forecast
Sri Lankan Rupee
The Sri Lankan Rupee is expected to trade at 153.00 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 158.00 in 12 months time.





On practical aspect, Currency Depreciation up to 1Q 2018 looks correct.
As far as Stock Market is concerned, it seems forecast is totally wrong.

14 Re: Very bullish market on Sun Jun 04, 2017 2:50 pm

Teller

avatar
Moderator
Another main issue is Sri Lanka is going to have a black spot due to non payment of Hambanthota cricket ground debt payment. Government has to do some thing soon

15 Re: Very bullish market on Sun Jun 04, 2017 2:55 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Teller wrote:Another main issue is Sri Lanka is going to  have  a black spot due  to non payment of Hambanthota cricket ground debt payment. Government has to do some thing soon


these are political drama. to sale H.Port

16 Re: Very bullish market on Sun Jun 04, 2017 3:01 pm

sisira.wijeweera


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@kovida wrote:
@Teller wrote:Rupee is in a decline trend , foreigners are loosing their investments.  If any one invested 1 USd @ Rs. 100 levels , now that foreigner has to sell RS.153/- to break even . It's a tragedy happening at the moment. Reuters forcast says 1 USD can appreciate Against RS.163/- levels soon. Imagine how much will be lost for foreigner.

I am puzzling as to why foreigners keep on buying our blue chips. Foreign buyers and their Fund Managers should be crazy  lot to dump their money . 
Do you think they  invest for short term gain ? 
Defenetly they must have analysed country's present economic situation and after 5 years where it is going to be .


Fluctutation and devaluation of currency is a short term senario.

-GSP + 


-Colombo Port City Project
-Florousing Tourism Industry 
-Mega Condominum Projects
-Expected completion of many high way projects
-Gradual picking up of our Traditional and Industrial exports
-Increase of Foreign remittences by Employees of Middle East and other countries
-Expected FDI inflow
-Hambantota Mega Development Project with Industrial Zone
-World oil and gas prices remaining at low prices and projection of low prices for another 5 years.
-Surge of other Stock Markets  at an unexpected rate,BSE,NIKKEI, HANSENG
-Projected reduction of budget dificit which would contribute to reduction of inflation and money printing
- New income tax act to enhance government collection ot taxes.

Where our currecny is going to be in next couple of years?


THINK INTELEGENTLY AND INVEST FOR FUTURE AS FOREIGNERS DO.
http://www.dailynews.lk/2017/06/02/business/117745/colombo-port-city-attract-us-15-bn-when-complete

more good news camming ASI this month 7000 sure

17 Re: Very bullish market on Sun Jun 04, 2017 3:20 pm

deli

avatar
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Sri Lanka in major debt trap. We are in the midst of a crisis. Imagine a company with a debt to equity ratio of 800 or more times. THAT IS SRI LANKA

18 Re: Very bullish market on Sun Jun 04, 2017 3:28 pm

kovida

avatar
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@Teller wrote:Another main issue is Sri Lanka is going to  have  a black spot due  to non payment of Hambanthota cricket ground debt payment. Government has to do some thing soon
Do not see crocodiles in your tea cup.

19 Re: Very bullish market on Mon Jun 05, 2017 6:11 am

Richman


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@Teller wrote:As per this analyse index can be dropped from 6689 to 5960  levels which is with in this year.  In simply rupee depreciation means asset values are increasing which can be Gains for locals but foreigners point of view , they will be the loosers except invest in few counters.  In this scenario high dividend yield companies can delver a significant  chances.

Aiyo teller, I thought you would have got into the market in past few days given opportunity. I guess your manipulators are paying you hard for this negative sentiment creation or you are out of cash to buy stocks. 

I see you as a great psychological manipulator after your promotions on HEXP. You got so much blood on your hands.

5960 is joke of the year

20 Re: Very bullish market on Mon Jun 05, 2017 6:16 am

Richman


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@Teller wrote:Rupee is in a decline trend , foreigners are loosing their investments.  If any one invested 1 USd @ Rs. 100 levels , now that foreigner has to sell RS.153/- to break even . It's a tragedy happening at the moment. Reuters forcast says 1 USD can appreciate Against RS.163/- levels soon. Imagine how much will be lost for foreigner.


I guess you know better than foreign funds about the currency variations. The dollar will not reach 163 level soon... there are enough dollars coming in to the county and soon Foreign reserves will shoot up...

Why are you trying to create such negative sentiment about the market. I know for a fact that you don't care about the retail investors. Your statements are very bias and many of us here knows it.

It is clear how some people try to keep the market down with few counters like CARS, LAMB, CTHR, CTC, CARG if you look at there trading prices and volume, you will understand couple of counters are used daily to keep the market in red zone and collect.



Last edited by Richman on Mon Jun 05, 2017 6:20 am; edited 1 time in total

21 Re: Very bullish market on Mon Jun 05, 2017 6:17 am

Richman


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@stockback wrote:
@Teller wrote:Another main issue is Sri Lanka is going to  have  a black spot due  to non payment of Hambanthota cricket ground debt payment. Government has to do some thing soon


these are political drama. to sale H.Port

Agree stockback. This is nothing worry at all.

22 Re: Very bullish market on Wed Jun 07, 2017 2:10 am

Teller

avatar
Moderator
I don't want to make you panic or dull but I wanted to alert you before taking any risks . Yesterday most of the Asian markets were driven to RED due to Qatar issue. World oil prices increased marginally and expect to rise in a recent high. Approximately 145,000 sri Lankan in trouble who works in Qatar at the moment . Asian markets are in pessimistic stage at the moment .

23 Re: Very bullish market on Wed Jun 07, 2017 8:31 am

Maharaja


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
I had a chat with my best friends and everyone is expecting market blast over 7200 level immediately.
Reason is continuous foreign buying specially JKH
Most of us agreed it will trade near 180 this month.

When JKH goes Up market goes up. Also there is no negative news (when international market rise did the CSE rise ? No ) . Didn't anyone in forum tell you about other international market rise ? So think when anyone tell these negatives ideas. 

Rupee is stable and international affairs are good in SL.
No election near by so no political instability.

So be ready for a good ride friends. Keep an eye on BFN A foreign accountant also bought 75,000 shares recently. BFN is getting illiquid daily. NAV is Rs.17/-

BFN must reach at least NAV.  Decision is yours.

Good luck 
Maharaja

24 Re: Very bullish market on Wed Jun 07, 2017 8:57 am

Hanoifortune

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Teller wrote:I don't want to make you panic or dull but I wanted to  alert you before taking any risks .  Yesterday most of the Asian markets were driven to RED due to Qatar issue. World oil prices increased marginally and expect to rise in a recent high. Approximately 145,000 sri Lankan in trouble who works in Qatar at the moment .  Asian markets are in pessimistic stage at the moment .

Qatar issue will perpetuate .

 This may lead to civil war in Saudi  and rise of a new leader out side the royal family.

If all SriLankan labourers from ME have to come back  it is  big issue for SriLanka  for jobs and foreign reserve.

 We have to watch the election of France and UK as well.

We are in a  peril,nearing to WWIII

25 Re: Very bullish market on Wed Jun 07, 2017 11:15 am

Maharaja


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Looks like CSE is not ready for some middle east problem.
Strong technical trend forming. 

Truth will always win.
See you all at ASI 7200

Maharaja.

26 Re: Very bullish market on Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:02 am

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
Market is currently at a consolidation phase. JKh is in consolidation as well. When these two are in consolidation the rest moving up and down creating opportunities. So in summary you will see market be volatile a bit around 1% +/- arround 6,700 mark before it moves to next level.

ASPI coming back to 5900 meaning a baseless argument otherwise we see a major political or economical issue domestic or international.

At the current rate I see ASPI around 6,750 by end of Q2 and gradually move up towards 7,000 by the end of the year.

27 Re: Very bullish market on Thu Jun 08, 2017 1:06 pm

stockback


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Sri Lanka forex reserves reach US$6.8bn US dollars: CB Governor

28 Re: Very bullish market on Thu Jun 08, 2017 4:54 pm

Maharaja


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Stock market players active again after a very long time 
You can see shares pushed up like FLCH , BIL, JKH, CCS

This is a good sign for active CSE going towards 7200

Maharaja

29 Re: Very bullish market on Wed Jun 14, 2017 8:08 pm

Teller

avatar
Moderator
It should be come down..

30 Re: Very bullish market on Wed Jun 14, 2017 10:33 pm

kumarweerarathne

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Then wht wil happen to ur HEXP ? Wont touch 120? Or Shal we collect it @ 60s :-P Its abt to boom b4 August .. bet u

31 Re: Very bullish market on Wed Jun 14, 2017 10:51 pm

kovida

avatar
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@Teller wrote:It should be come down..
A person who said Maket would come down to 5000 level. Be intelligent .

32 Re: Very bullish market on Thu Jun 15, 2017 8:20 am

Hanoifortune

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@kovida wrote:
@Teller wrote:It should be come down..
A person who said Maket would come down to 5000 level. Be intelligent .

The person must be a famous astrologer

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