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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Positive Outlook for Exports - Good Sign

Positive Outlook for Exports - Good Sign

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1 Positive Outlook for Exports - Good Sign on Fri Aug 25, 2017 9:18 am

ranferdi

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Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Positive outlook for Sri Lanka's exports in 1Q 2017
Mon, May 22, 2017, 11:58 am SL Time, ColomboPage News Desk, Sri Lanka.


May 22, Colombo: Sri Lanka's economy grew by 4.4% during the year 2016, although slightly low compared to 2015, amidst internal and external shocks that impacted on the economic growth of the country.

As a whole, the external sector contribution to GDP was little less, mainly due to the poor export performance of products such as Tea and Garments & the Apparel sectors.

However, economists have commented that the year ended positively due to the reduced fiscal deficit, high earnings from tourism, an increase in remittances and the growth recorded in construction and other services sectors. Against this background, it would be pertinent to examine and compare the performance of exports in the first quarter of 2017, the Exports Development Board (EDB) said in a release.

Merchandise exports from Sri Lanka during the period January to March 2017 valued at US$ 2.7 billion reported a growth of 2% compared to the same period in 2016. These observations were made after analyzing the recently released customs provisional export statistics for the first quarter of 2017.

Export values of essential oils showed the highest growth of 41%, followed by Electronic/Electrical and Machinery products and parts. Spice exports showed a growth of 39% and exports of fruits, ornamental fish and seafood grew by 27%, 22% and 17% respectively. The Combined value of these sectors was US$ 258 Million. However, Tea, Coconut and Rubber & Rubber based sectors with a combined value of 701 US$ Million grew only by 7 % while the Apparel sector, the highest export revenue contributor to the economy, performed negatively, with a total value of US$1274 Million during the period under review, a decrease of US$ 90 Million.

The US continued to be the leading export destination with a share of over 25%. Shares of India, Italy, Singapore, UAE, China, Russian Federation, Canada, Australia and Turkey increased during January to March, 2017 when compared to 2016.

Tea exports increased during the first three months of the year. The main markets served were Russia and Turkey. Further increases in exports of tea can be expected in 2017 as the main markets such as the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) have projected a 2.4 % economic growth in the region. The World Bank expects a 1.4 % growth in the Russian market in 2017, which together with the oil price stabilization in the region, is expected to show a positive impact on tea exports. On the supply side of tea, sector experts have indicated that tea production has improved since November 2016. High prices in the international market and the expected growth in the Euro Zone too, will contribute towards the industry's further growth in 2017.

The value of Seafood exports increased by 18% in the first quarter of 2017, compared to same period during the previous year. During January -March 2016, the industry's exports were affected due to the ban of fish imports from Sri Lanka into the EU. However, with the removal of the ban from June 2016, the industry has performed well in the European markets as well as in the USA. Exports to markets such as Italy, United Kingdom and Germany resumed during the period under review. The main exports to these markets are mainly frozen and fresh fish, Crabs, Lobsters and prawns, all of which are exported under the category of seafood. The exports of seafood together with ornamental fish contributed around 70 US$ Million to the total merchandise exports of the country.

The removal of the ban on exports of Fishery products to the EU was a success due to strong lobbying of the relevant authorities such as the Ministry of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources Development, the Export Development Board, Department of Commerce along with the relevant Trade Associations. Seafood exporters are expected to see increased volumes in the coming months, with the reinstatement of the EU GSP + concessions.

The exports of cloves increased significantly in 2017.The main markets are India and Saudi Arabia, while cinnamon moved to its traditional markets such as Mexico, Columbia and Peru. The spice manufacturers are closely related to the essential oil industry as well. The main essential oil products are Cinnamon leaf and bark oil, clove, nutmeg and pepper oil, which are exported to markets such as the United States of America, Germany, France, India etc.

Ceylon cinnamon, the spice item which is obtained from the inner bark of the Cinnamomum zeylanicum blume tree, or famous "Kurundu", is a well-known and reputed spice all over the world. The Sri Lanka Export Development Board, obtained the Pure Ceylon Cinnamon (PCC) Certification Mark, which has been registered in main markets such as Europe, USA, Peru and Colombia, in addition to being registered at the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO). The EDB is in the process of obtaining the Geographic Indication (GI) for Cinnamon in collaboration with relevant public, private stakeholders such as National Intellectual Property Office, Department of Export Agriculture and Spice council in order to gain a competitive advantage in commercialization of Ceylon cinnamon while protecting it internationally.

Products such as electronic, electrical and machinery products/parts were exported to variety of markets such as Ghana, UAE, Cyprus, Thailand, Germany and United Kingdom, in smaller values. Electronics and electrical products have been identified as future potential products to expand Sri Lanka's export basket, after extensive analysis carried out by a team of EDB officials under the guidance of Harvard Business School experts.

Under the category Coconut & Coconut products, items such as coconut oil, Activated Carbon, liquid coconut milk and coconut cream exports have been made to markets such as the United States, Germany, China and Pakistan.

The export of Textiles and Garments, Food & Beverages, Gems, Diamonds & Jewellery and mineral and Non - metallic products recorded a decline during the period. Apparel Exporters attribute the decline in exports to the sluggish economic growth and in particular, the economic slowdown of the United States - the main market for Sri Lanka's apparel industry. Exports of apparel to the European Union and Germany also recorded reduced volumes.

As a whole, the first quarter exports fared well, despite unfavorable global conditions which continued from 2016. However, there are signs of recovery during 2017, with the global positive economic forecasts available to-date. The export performance of Sri Lanka remains stable compared to other the regional competitors such as Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore, where five year export growth was negative, while Sri Lanka's performance has been positive with a five year average growth of 10%. The export related industries are expected to have better times ahead, as Sri Lanka has regained the EU GSP+ status and with the United Kingdom affirming that it would continue to extend this facility to Sri Lanka despite its decision to leave the EU.

Source : http://www.colombopage.com/archive_17A/May22_1495434481CH.php

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2 Re: Positive Outlook for Exports - Good Sign on Fri Aug 25, 2017 9:49 am

DS Wijesinghe


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Very poor economic growth of 4.4% in 2016. Sri Lanka is one of the slowest growing economies in Asia.

 This is at a time when the world's growth of engine is Asia which is expected to grow by 6% in 2017. Our Asian counterparts are expected to post dynamic GDP growths in 2017 as follows

Myanmar - 7.6%
India - 7.2%
Bangladesh - 6.8%
China - 6.2%
Vietnam - 5.5%

Sri Lanka - 4.5%, but now with floods and.droughts, even that is doubtful. 2017 1Q we grew only by a disappointing 3.8%

Indeed Very poor economic growth by Sri Lanka

3 Re: Positive Outlook for Exports - Good Sign on Fri Aug 25, 2017 10:44 am

ranferdi

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Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Wijesinghe

I accept the fact that we are comparatively poor performing,

But this kind of performance can be appreciated considering the high debt burden and prevailed corruption.

What we basically needs is improved exports and increasing exports is a good sign.

We are coming out of the pathetic situation slowly.

2018 can be blooming.

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4 Re: Positive Outlook for Exports - Good Sign on Fri Aug 25, 2017 1:05 pm

DS Wijesinghe


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Dear Ranferdi,

We all investors hope that our economy would soon be strong and robust so that we also can accumulate wealth for ourselves legally, the way investors in other countries are accumulating wealth for themselves

I personally like to believe what you say, that 2018 would be better and hope that will happen as I too have heavily invested in the CSE.

But when I see what they are trying to do with the new Tax bill, I have my reservations. These reservations are purely based on how other countries in the world were turned in to economic tigers.

Trying increase government Tax revenue to 24% of the GDP will kill the economic freedom & entrepreneurial skills of our citizens.

Economic miracles can only be expected when there is less taxation, ideally around 11%-12% of GDP.

What govt needs to do is take pragmatic measures to accelerate the growth of our economy, which will eventually bring more revenue to govt and not burden people with higher taxation to cover their expenses.

5 Re: Positive Outlook for Exports - Good Sign on Fri Aug 25, 2017 1:16 pm

worthiness


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Think moderately. Fanning ashes cause an inferno that could not be extinguished. Should sweep out all corrupted groups first unveiling masks. This is an indispensable foundation without which reading economic indicators become valueless.

6 Re: Positive Outlook for Exports - Good Sign on Fri Aug 25, 2017 3:24 pm

DS Wijesinghe


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@worthiness wrote:Think moderately. Fanning ashes cause an inferno that could not be extinguished. Should sweep out all corrupted groups first unveiling masks. This is an indispensable foundation without which reading economic indicators become valueless.
IT Professional who highlighted Rs. 3 Billion corruption. sacked by President
ECONOMYNEXT - Sri Lanka's information technology chief, Muhunthan Canagey said he was forced to resign following a public criticism of spectrum award said to have been made to a business group which operates a radio and TV network.

Canagey alleged that the Telecommunications Regulatory Commission of Sri Lanka which is directly under President Maithripala Sirisena had given a block of 700MegaHertz spectrum to Colombo-based Maharaja group, causing a loss of over three billion to the state.

"Till today's MTV (Maharaja TV) has failed to tell the public how they got the spectrum and causing a loss to the state of Rs. 3 billion," Canagey said in a tweet at the end of last month.

The network has also been targeting Canagay in its news broadcasts. In Sri Lanka mobile telecom spectrum is auctioned but television licences and spectrum has been given from time to time to various parties who have started TV stations.

There is also an international move to release parts of current TV spectrum and use it for the more lucrative mobile telephony and data. In Sri Lanka the entry of digital TV was supposed to release more spectrum for mobile communications.

Canagay claimed that the alleged award of TV spectrum affected the government's digitisation efforts which are led by Canagey's Information and Communication Technology Agency of Sri Lanka which is directly under Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe.

"I have been asked to resign by His Excellency the President Maithripala Sirisena...," he said in a letter outlining reasons for his sudden departure.

"I will never be part of aiding and abetting any fraud or corruption."

The Presidential Secretariat has denied any wrong doing.

7 Re: Positive Outlook for Exports - Good Sign on Tue Aug 29, 2017 3:45 pm

ranferdi

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@DS Wijesinghe wrote:
@worthiness wrote:Think moderately. Fanning ashes cause an inferno that could not be extinguished. Should sweep out all corrupted groups first unveiling masks. This is an indispensable foundation without which reading economic indicators become valueless.
IT Professional who highlighted Rs. 3 Billion corruption. sacked by President
ECONOMYNEXT - Sri Lanka's information technology chief, Muhunthan Canagey said he was forced to resign following a public criticism of spectrum award said to have been made to a business group which operates a radio and TV network.

Canagey alleged that the Telecommunications Regulatory Commission of Sri Lanka which is directly under President Maithripala Sirisena had given a block of 700MegaHertz spectrum to Colombo-based Maharaja group, causing a loss of over three billion to the state.

"Till today's MTV (Maharaja TV) has failed to tell the public how they got the spectrum and causing a loss to the state of Rs. 3 billion," Canagey said in a tweet at the end of last month.

The network has also been targeting Canagay in its news broadcasts. In Sri Lanka mobile telecom spectrum is auctioned but television licences and spectrum has been given from time to time to various parties who have started TV stations.

There is also an international move to release parts of current TV spectrum and use it for the more lucrative mobile telephony and data. In Sri Lanka the entry of digital TV was supposed to release more spectrum for mobile communications.

Canagay claimed that the alleged award of TV spectrum affected the government's digitisation efforts which are led by Canagey's Information and Communication Technology Agency of Sri Lanka which is directly under Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe.

"I have been asked to resign by His Excellency the President Maithripala Sirisena...," he said in a letter outlining reasons for his sudden departure.

"I will never be part of aiding and abetting any fraud or corruption."

The Presidential Secretariat has denied any wrong doing.

Think positively, The corruption in ours kind of Country cannot be eliminated overnight. Also there are possibilities that politicians who is having very low technical and economic  knowledge will be taken for a ride by Cunning officials. But as citizens of the country we must never give up. Fight against corruption till the day that corruption is a past thing, Also we are still lacking proper awareness campaign to select educated people as politicos.

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8 Re: Positive Outlook for Exports - Good Sign on Tue Aug 29, 2017 5:35 pm

DS Wijesinghe


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@ranferdi wrote:
@DS Wijesinghe wrote:
@worthiness wrote:Think moderately. Fanning ashes cause an inferno that could not be extinguished. Should sweep out all corrupted groups first unveiling masks. This is an indispensable foundation without which reading economic indicators become valueless.
IT Professional who highlighted Rs. 3 Billion corruption. sacked by President

.

Think positively, The corruption in ours kind of Country cannot be eliminated overnight. Also there are possibilities that politicians who is having very low technical and economic  knowledge will be taken for a ride by Cunning officials. But as citizens of the country we must never give up. Fight against corruption till the day that corruption is a past thing, Also we are still lacking proper awareness campaign to select educated people as politicos.

Re: Sri Lanka: Stock Market - Blood Bath on First Day of Ranil's fourth Term lead UNP Government - over 500,000 Investors are awaiting Rs.500,000 per investor Margin Trading promise given in UNP Manifesto amounting to over Rs.250 Billion


@ranferdi wrote:on Wed Aug 26, 2015 5:03 pm
Yes the market crash in china has given some bones to the ones who oppose current government. We cant make instant noodles here the change will come after sometimes.

It's impossible to wait indefinitely. Half of Sirisena's presidency is over and today we are a struggling on all fronts which this govt promised. Better management of economy, reducing corruption have fallen wayside. I was positive for sometime but I measure success or failure through results in hard facts.

2 years ago when the stock market crashed on Ranil's 1st day in office as PM for the 4th time you requested the fellow forum investors to be patient with the new government and wanted to give them more time to deliver results. (Your then post is copied and pasted above) Today our market is in even a worse situation than then. How long are we to wait? What we see today is the reality and I earnestly hope that some miracle will lift our economy and Colombo bourse in the next 2 1/2 years.

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