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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » The Stock Chat by EquityChamp

The Stock Chat by EquityChamp

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1The Stock Chat by EquityChamp Empty The Stock Chat by EquityChamp on Sat Apr 07, 2018 4:37 pm

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
I have planned to bring some good updates on different stocks under this thread. Given the current design of SLEF it is extremely difficult for me to have and maintain different threads for each stock. Anyone like to join can join for some interesting discussions.

2The Stock Chat by EquityChamp Empty Re: The Stock Chat by EquityChamp on Sat Apr 07, 2018 5:00 pm

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
JKH Update - 7th April 18

JKH is currently trading around 160. It fell down to about 145 few months ago but recovered to the current levels. 

JKH's recent quarter performances are not encouraging mainly it is facing many difficulties from its leasure sector mainly and food and beverage sector in short term due to new tax regulations.

However the foreigners are continuing to buy this stock from the market. They stands at net buyers so far this year. We need to find out why they are happy to buy at Current price levels when their financials are not so good.

Is it that they are anticipating a good turnaround in the economy in coming years so that JKH can be able to report super earnings? Or is it the optimism they have on the future operations of its Waterfront Mixed development project? Can Waterfront project do wonders for JKH from 2019 onwards? How JKH can overcome the distressed results from its leasure sector, will this sector turnaround within next 1-2 years?

Stage is set for further discussions.

3The Stock Chat by EquityChamp Empty Re: The Stock Chat by EquityChamp on Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:32 am

DS Wijesinghe


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
I am a medium to long term investor and before I Buy any stock, even 100 shares I look at the past performance for 5 years. I will wait for their 2017/18 financials to be out to do 5 year analysis but for the moment will do a 4 year analysis from 2013/2012 to 2017/2016. 

If you consider the position of the LUCKIEST JKH INVESTOR who would have BOUGHT @ the LOWEST traded PRICE of Rs. 217/- in Jan-Mar quarter of 2013 and SOLD @ HIGHEST trade PRICE of 165/- in Jan-Mar quarter 2018(I assume 165 would have been the highest)

After you account for all the rights purchased and dividends received(I've not factored Future Present value adjustments), the compounded annual rate of return on the total investment is a disappointing 4%. You can predict the rate of return to be even lower the investor would have earned if he had bought and sold at median prices. 


JKH 4 year CAGR growth rates from 2013/12 to 2017/2016


Turnover6%
Net Profit after tax8%
EPS3%
NAVPS19%
DPS25%
 
Return on Equity 2013 - 15% has dropped to 9.8% in 2017. 
2017/16 PER - 11.59
2017/16 EPS - 11.9


Predicting the next 5 years based on 2017/16, predicted EPS

We know current earnings are down but let's optimistically assume their EPS CAGR as follows
2018/17 - 3%, 2019/18-3%, 2020/19-5%, 2021/20-8%, 2022/21-10% and by 2022 March their EPS would be Rs. 15/75 and Price of a share @ PER OF 11.60 = Rs. 183/- giving an investor a annual CAGR growth of a poor 3%  

Note : Share price could grow much more than predicted above if moves up along with rising NAVPS which had grown by 25% last 4 years

If other members can do their own calculations and share their analysis on this stock which is considered the prime blue chip stock in the CSE, would be invaluable to all of us.

4The Stock Chat by EquityChamp Empty Re: The Stock Chat by EquityChamp on Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:24 pm

Eugine Fernando


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@DS Wijesinghe wrote:I am a medium to long term investor and before I Buy any stock, even 100 shares I look at the past performance for 5 years. I will wait for their 2017/18 financials to be out to do 5 year analysis but for the moment will do a 4 year analysis from 2013/2012 to 2017/2016. 

If you consider the position of the LUCKIEST JKH INVESTOR who would have BOUGHT @ the LOWEST traded PRICE of Rs. 217/- in Jan-Mar quarter of 2013 and SOLD @ HIGHEST trade PRICE of 165/- in Jan-Mar quarter 2018(I assume 165 would have been the highest)

After you account for all the rights purchased and dividends received(I've not factored Future Present value adjustments), the compounded annual rate of return on the total investment is a disappointing 4%. You can predict the rate of return to be even lower the investor would have earned if he had bought and sold at median prices. 


JKH 4 year CAGR growth rates from 2013/12 to 2017/2016


 










Turnover6%
Net Profit after tax8%
EPS3%
NAVPS19%
DPS25%
 
Return on Equity 2013 - 15% has dropped to 9.8% in 2017. 
2017/16 PER - 11.59
2017/16 EPS - 11.9


Predicting the next 5 years based on 2017/16, predicted EPS

We know current earnings are down but let's optimistically assume their EPS CAGR as follows
2018/17 - 3%, 2019/18-3%, 2020/19-5%, 2021/20-8%, 2022/21-10% and by 2022 March their EPS would be Rs. 15/75 and Price of a share @ PER OF 11.60 = Rs. 183/- giving an investor a annual CAGR growth of a poor 3%  

Note : Share price could grow much more than predicted above if moves up along with rising NAVPS which had grown by 25% last 4 years

If other members can do their own calculations and share their analysis on this stock which is considered the prime blue chip stock in the CSE, would be invaluable to all of us.
I appreciate your workout but if you are going to trade with those calculations, it won`t work in Colombo Stock Market, this market is really manipulated, for a example see what happened to SHL with in a short period it has shoot up from 12/- to 26/- see the price different,  this is not because of your workings method this is 100% manipulated to get their Rights a success. Like this there are many shares eg. East, Jins etc.. my way of trading is only short term, with the market sentiment of the day, for exp. Dist. I bought at 19.20 and sold @ 23.40 with in 3 days. I am not asking every one to follow this, this my only my way of trading....GD

5The Stock Chat by EquityChamp Empty Re: The Stock Chat by EquityChamp on Wed Apr 18, 2018 1:38 pm

glad


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Eugine Fernando wrote:
@DS Wijesinghe wrote:I am a medium to long term investor and before I Buy any stock, even 100 shares I look at the past performance for 5 years. I will wait for their 2017/18 financials to be out to do 5 year analysis but for the moment will do a 4 year analysis from 2013/2012 to 2017/2016. 

If you consider the position of the LUCKIEST JKH INVESTOR who would have BOUGHT @ the LOWEST traded PRICE of Rs. 217/- in Jan-Mar quarter of 2013 and SOLD @ HIGHEST trade PRICE of 165/- in Jan-Mar quarter 2018(I assume 165 would have been the highest)

After you account for all the rights purchased and dividends received(I've not factored Future Present value adjustments), the compounded annual rate of return on the total investment is a disappointing 4%. You can predict the rate of return to be even lower the investor would have earned if he had bought and sold at median prices. 


JKH 4 year CAGR growth rates from 2013/12 to 2017/2016


 















Turnover6%
Net Profit after tax8%
EPS3%
NAVPS19%
DPS25%
 
Return on Equity 2013 - 15% has dropped to 9.8% in 2017. 
2017/16 PER - 11.59
2017/16 EPS - 11.9


Predicting the next 5 years based on 2017/16, predicted EPS

We know current earnings are down but let's optimistically assume their EPS CAGR as follows
2018/17 - 3%, 2019/18-3%, 2020/19-5%, 2021/20-8%, 2022/21-10% and by 2022 March their EPS would be Rs. 15/75 and Price of a share @ PER OF 11.60 = Rs. 183/- giving an investor a annual CAGR growth of a poor 3%  

Note : Share price could grow much more than predicted above if moves up along with rising NAVPS which had grown by 25% last 4 years

If other members can do their own calculations and share their analysis on this stock which is considered the prime blue chip stock in the CSE, would be invaluable to all of us.
I appreciate your workout but if you are going to trade with those calculations, it won`t work in Colombo Stock Market, this market is really manipulated, for a example see what happened to SHL with in a short period it has shoot up from 12/- to 26/- see the price different,  this is not because of your workings method this is 100% manipulated to get their Rights a success. Like this there are many shares eg. East, Jins etc.. my way of trading is only short term, with the market sentiment of the day, for exp. Dist. I bought at 19.20 and sold @ 23.40 with in 3 days. I am not asking every one to follow this, this my only my way of trading....GD
How do you identify the horses?

6The Stock Chat by EquityChamp Empty Re: The Stock Chat by EquityChamp on Wed Apr 18, 2018 2:08 pm

Eugine Fernando


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@glad wrote:
@Eugine Fernando wrote:
@DS Wijesinghe wrote:I am a medium to long term investor and before I Buy any stock, even 100 shares I look at the past performance for 5 years. I will wait for their 2017/18 financials to be out to do 5 year analysis but for the moment will do a 4 year analysis from 2013/2012 to 2017/2016. 

If you consider the position of the LUCKIEST JKH INVESTOR who would have BOUGHT @ the LOWEST traded PRICE of Rs. 217/- in Jan-Mar quarter of 2013 and SOLD @ HIGHEST trade PRICE of 165/- in Jan-Mar quarter 2018(I assume 165 would have been the highest)

After you account for all the rights purchased and dividends received(I've not factored Future Present value adjustments), the compounded annual rate of return on the total investment is a disappointing 4%. You can predict the rate of return to be even lower the investor would have earned if he had bought and sold at median prices. 


JKH 4 year CAGR growth rates from 2013/12 to 2017/2016


 




















Turnover6%
Net Profit after tax8%
EPS3%
NAVPS19%
DPS25%
 
Return on Equity 2013 - 15% has dropped to 9.8% in 2017. 
2017/16 PER - 11.59
2017/16 EPS - 11.9


Predicting the next 5 years based on 2017/16, predicted EPS

We know current earnings are down but let's optimistically assume their EPS CAGR as follows
2018/17 - 3%, 2019/18-3%, 2020/19-5%, 2021/20-8%, 2022/21-10% and by 2022 March their EPS would be Rs. 15/75 and Price of a share @ PER OF 11.60 = Rs. 183/- giving an investor a annual CAGR growth of a poor 3%  

Note : Share price could grow much more than predicted above if moves up along with rising NAVPS which had grown by 25% last 4 years

If other members can do their own calculations and share their analysis on this stock which is considered the prime blue chip stock in the CSE, would be invaluable to all of us.
I appreciate your workout but if you are going to trade with those calculations, it won`t work in Colombo Stock Market, this market is really manipulated, for a example see what happened to SHL with in a short period it has shoot up from 12/- to 26/- see the price different,  this is not because of your workings method this is 100% manipulated to get their Rights a success. Like this there are many shares eg. East, Jins etc.. my way of trading is only short term, with the market sentiment of the day, for exp. Dist. I bought at 19.20 and sold @ 23.40 with in 3 days. I am not asking every one to follow this, this my only my way of trading....GD
How do you identify the horses?

For that you have to be with the market, If you are a online trader very simple, with the days market movement you can judge which share is the Next horse,  my today`s horses are LDEV & JINS, this is only my calculation not a promotion please.

7The Stock Chat by EquityChamp Empty Re: The Stock Chat by EquityChamp on Wed Apr 18, 2018 2:18 pm

DS Wijesinghe


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Eugine Fernando, EC's topic is to have a discussion on JKH. The current performance of the company, how the share would perform when the waterfront project is completed and whether there are underlying reasons for continued foreign buying in to JKH when business seems declining, etc. Basically how we see JKH as a company and it's share price would perform in the future 

As declared in my post I'm a medium to long term investor who have made decent satisfactory returns and grown my money over the years at the CSE and therefore I've given my point of view to any medium to long term investor who is contemplating buying JKH at current level and hoping to hold till 2022 to make return better than bank fixed deposit rate. I would love to get some feedback and alternate points of views how the situation would be in 2022 from other fellow medium to long term investing members in this forum. They could see things different to the way I see.

EF, Without distracting, lets's stick to EC's topic. As you have declared to be an expert in short term trading, gaining super profits within a matter of few days, you should share your expert opinions and predictions about JKH  to the benefit of all short term traders, who plan to gain from short term trading of JKH.

8The Stock Chat by EquityChamp Empty Re: The Stock Chat by EquityChamp on Wed Apr 18, 2018 6:05 pm

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Hi guys, good discussions and various views. This is what we want in a public forum. Don' t forget that a fruitful discussion in a public forum can have a very big impact on the society at large.

@EF,  I do agree with your view to a certain extent as CSE is still relatively small compared to other developed markets and as such there will always chances for manipulation. Other than the SHL example I can state LGL & BFN as well. Are these stocks worth this much. On the other why the prices of stocks such as HNB, COMB, LFIN, ALLI, LWL,  etc stands at these prices. 

@DS, your approach is best suit for equity investments representing one side of the camp, the other was the trading camp . I agree that the JKH has given poor returns within the last 3-4 years largely attributable to changes in macro economic environment. You know what I mean here. On the other hand if we evaluate some other stocks like HNB, SAMP, DIAL, TPL or MAL based on your same criterion then the picture will be completely different. It's us who need to re-evaluate our portfolios consistently and make adjustments that will suit to the different contexts.

9The Stock Chat by EquityChamp Empty Re: The Stock Chat by EquityChamp on Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:12 am

glad


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@EquityChamp wrote:Hi guys, good discussions and various views. This is what we want in a public forum. Don' t forget that a fruitful discussion in a public forum can have a very big impact on the society at large.

@EF,  I do agree with your view to a certain extent as CSE is still relatively small compared to other developed markets and as such there will always chances for manipulation. Other than the SHL example I can state LGL & BFN as well. Are these stocks worth this much. On the other why the prices of stocks such as HNB, COMB, LFIN, ALLI, LWL,  etc stands at these prices. 

@DS, your approach is best suit for equity investments representing one side of the camp, the other was the trading camp . I agree that the JKH has given poor returns within the last 3-4 years largely attributable to changes in macro economic environment. You know what I mean here. On the other hand if we evaluate some other stocks like HNB, SAMP, DIAL, TPL or MAL based on your same criterion then the picture will be completely different. It's us who need to re-evaluate our portfolios consistently and make adjustments that will suit to the different contexts.
Low return in JKH may be like investing in Gilt edged securities, believes that it is safe, reliable, will not go bust but low return. Correct me if I am wrong. I have few shares like that in my PF not going anywhere. How long should I wait. May be it is better to take few high risks and hope for the best or move to FDs?????

10The Stock Chat by EquityChamp Empty Re: The Stock Chat by EquityChamp on Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:48 am

DS Wijesinghe


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@EquityChamp wrote:Hi guys, good discussions and various views. This is what we want in a public forum. Don' t forget that a fruitful discussion in a public forum can have a very big impact on the society at large.

@DS, your approach is best suit for equity investments representing one side of the camp, the other was the trading camp . I agree that the JKH has given poor returns within the last 3-4 years largely attributable to changes in macro economic environment. You know what I mean here. On the other hand if we evaluate some other stocks like HNB, SAMP, DIAL, TPL or MAL based on your same criterion then the picture will be completely different. It's us who need to re-evaluate our portfolios consistently and make adjustments that will suit to the different contexts.
EC, yes medium to long term investing in companies known to be fundamentally strong do not necessarily guarantee good or even average rates of return on the investments. For example if we take following 2 examples of SAMP & JKH the annual return from JKH is very poor whilst SAMP has given a very decent & satisfactory return.

It proves that merely investing in fundamentally strong companies for mid to long term and forgetting all about them could be disastrous. For example after buying JKH & after Ranil announcing in Parliament that Gaming rights will not be granted, the future attractiveness of The Water Front Project was lost. That is where the shareholder should have exited without converting warrants and investing that money in a much more attractive company giving a better return


Investment Decision 1 - JKH

Buy JKH @ LOWEST traded price of 219/- in Jan-Mar 2013 and SELL @ HIGHEST Traded price of Rs. 165/- in Jan-Mar 2018. After Rights & converting warrants and receiving Dividends this is only a very disappointing 4% Compounded Annual rate of Return over the 4 year period despite BUYING LOWEST & SELLING HIGHEST


Performance of the company
2016/20172012/20134 Year CAGR
Turnover Rs Mn106,27385,408      6%
NP after Tax18,11713,433      8%
EPS-adjusted11.910.7      3%
NAVPS-adjusted128.864.7     19%
DPS-adjuted5.2472.149     25%
ROE  9.8%  15%  Not Applicable

Investment Decision 2 - SAMP

If I was Not So Lucky when  BuyingSAMP and bought @ the highest share price in 1q 2013 and Decides Not to buy Rights and Sell @ Lowest price in 4Q 2017 

Buy SAMP @ AVERAGE traded price of 200/50 in Sep-Dec 2012 and SELL @ AVERAGE Traded price of Rs. 330/- in Sep-Dec 2017, without taking up the Rights. After receiving Cash & Scrip Dividends SAMP gives a handsome 15% Compounded Annual rate of Return over the 5 year period whereas JKH 4 year annual 4% return is on the basis of BUYING LOWEST & SELLING HIGHEST.
 
Performance of the company
 201720125 Year CAGR
Turnover Rs Mn97,44038,993     20%
NP after Tax12,6825,211     19%
EPS-adjusted64.9123.99     22%
NAVPS-adjusted317.23117.14     22%
DPS-adjusted17.28.99     14%
ROE  23.35 %  22.3 %  Not Applicable

11The Stock Chat by EquityChamp Empty Re: The Stock Chat by EquityChamp on Wed Apr 25, 2018 5:43 pm

DS Wijesinghe


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
CORRECTION

This how the 'Investment Decision 2' should read

Investment Decision 2 - SAMP



Buy SAMP @ AVERAGE traded price of 200/50 in Sep-Dec 2012 and SELL @ AVERAGE Traded price of Rs. 330/- in Sep-Dec 2017, without taking up the Rights. After receiving Cash & Scrip Dividends SAMP gives a handsome 15% Compounded Annual rate of Return over the 5 year period whereas JKH 4 year annual 4% return is on the basis of BUYING LOWEST & SELLING HIGHEST.
 

12The Stock Chat by EquityChamp Empty Re: The Stock Chat by EquityChamp on Thu Apr 26, 2018 7:20 pm

EquityChamp

EquityChamp
Moderator
Thanks DS. Yes I agree on Sampath bank and I still believe it will double in price within the next five years if you buy today. Just forget the dividend and if you compare how the Sampath Bank has grown it's market capitalization during last 3 to 4 years is remarkable. The market capitalization  has doubled within this period but the ASPI still languishing to reach even the level prevailed at the end of 2014.

13The Stock Chat by EquityChamp Empty Re: The Stock Chat by EquityChamp on Thu Apr 26, 2018 9:33 pm

DS Wijesinghe


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@EquityChamp wrote:Thanks DS. Yes I agree on Sampath bank and I still believe it will double in price within the next five years if you buy today. Just forget the dividend and if you compare how the Sampath Bank has grown it's market capitalization during last 3 to 4 years is remarkable. The market capitalization  has doubled within this period but the ASPI still languishing to reach even the level prevailed at the end of 2014.
You are absolutely correct

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