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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Arpico Insurance (AINS)

Arpico Insurance (AINS)

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1 Arpico Insurance (AINS) on Tue Apr 10, 2018 12:06 pm

KAS10


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Guys what do you think about AINS (Arpico Insurance)????
There's only 6 million shares in the market (free float) and trading at EPS 3  afro . 

Please discuss and thanks

2 Re: Arpico Insurance (AINS) on Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:14 pm

DS Wijesinghe


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
It has been in my watch list as well over the past 1 year and waited for 2017 financial reports to decide. Bought @17/50 last month whilst another buy order @ 16/90 narrowly missed when it started moving up again after hitting low of 17/-. My decision to buy this stock as a long term investment for the next 5 years was based on my own analysis, to make myself clear that this investment will give me a return of around 18% CAGR beating the fixed deposit interest rates.

1. Do I like, reasonably understand and am comfortable with insurance business? Yes I do. Have a few life insurance policies from 2 companies and have a fair knowledge as to how life insurance policies work through regular interaction with my life sales agents servicing me. I also regularly read insurance company and insurance industry articles. To some extent I can interpret insurance company financial reports to try and predict their future. A life insurance policy from AINS would have been ideal, but I do not have one

2. How have they performed in the past 5 years?
a. Total Revenue - Compounded Annual Growth Rate is 48%
(Gross Written Premium - 5 year CAGR is 52%)
( First Year Premium - 3 year CAGR is 46%)- new business growing excellent
Won an international award as the Fastest Growing Life Insurer
(Renewal Premium-3 year CAGR is 68%)-Renewal premiums collected efficiently
b. Net Profit 3 year CAGR 151%
( only life insurance company to post profits in the 3rd year of operation)
c. Earnings per share - 3 year CAGR 142%
d. Net Asset Value per share - 5 year CAGR is 15%
e. Dividend per Share- 1st Dividend declared in 2017. Rs.0.40 per Share

3. Can their Management and CEO ensure this fantastic growth levels to be maintained in next 5 years, till 2022 ? YES
There is no CEO since 2016 but only an Acting Chairman. It is clear the defacto Chairman and CEO is Dr. Sena Yaddhige. He is not a life insurer capable of driving sales to such heights. He ensures costs are minimized through Arpico group synergies and focus on profitability. Then who is behind their fantastic growth in sales?
In their IPO document there are 2 sales AGMs(who have been in the company since inception) are now grown to the levels of GMs. They don’t have high end qualifications under their names but seem to be street smart, well experienced with international qualifications in life sales. AINS doesn’t have a comparatively large life sales force but as it grows over the next 5 years I can bet my money for these 2 gentlemen to grow sales and Dr. Yaddhige to ensure growth in profitability.

4. What are my predictions by 2022, EPS? Market value of a share? Compounded annual rate of return on my investment?

a. EPS growth at a minimum of 2018-25%, 2019-20%, 2020-20%, 2021-18%, 2022-18%
2017 EPS@ Rs. 3.11 and by 2022 - Rs. 7.79
b. 2017 PER- 5.47 @ closing market value of a share Rs. 17/-
Even if current sluggish market sentiments continue , I predict it could maintain a similar PER of 5.20 by the end of 2022
c. Predicted market value of a share by the end of 2022 is
EPS Rs. 7.79 @ PER 5.20 = Closing market value of a share Rs. 40/50
d. This gives me a 18% Compounded Annual rate of return by 2022, beating current bank fixed deposit rates

CAUTION- I do not recommend any one to rely upon my analysis but strongly advice to do their own comprehensive analysis before making an investment decision on AINS

3 Re: Arpico Insurance (AINS) on Wed Apr 11, 2018 3:01 pm

anges


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
looks good ! good management and dividend

4 Re: Arpico Insurance (AINS) on Wed Apr 11, 2018 5:22 pm

EquityChamp

avatar
Moderator
Arpico Insurance hasn't done the changes in valuing the life fund according to the new rules by Insurance Board. They will do that this year. Once they do it then their reserves will shoot up similar to CTCE, UAL , etc.

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