Sri Lanka Equity Forum
Dear Reader,

Registration with the Sri Lanka Equity Forum would enable you to enjoy an array of other services such as Member Rankings, User Groups, Own Posts & Profile, Exclusive Research, Live Chat Box etc..

All information contained in this forum is subject to Disclaimer Notice published.


Thank You
Sri Lanka Equity Forum

Discussion Forum for Stock Market Investors in Sri Lanka

සිංහල පරිවර්තනය
Submit Post
Submit Post
Market Place

Add an ad

View all ads

Latest topics

» Copreus (Pvt) Ltd - Need some Information
by jake94 Today at 1:58 am

» UNION BANK (UBC) to be takeover by Union bank of india
by aklt Today at 1:20 am

» Why AAIC Should trade above RS.50/-
by wisdom79 Yesterday at 7:46 pm

» INVEST ON AAIC, HASU, UAL.... YOU WILL NEVER WORRY......
by wisdom79 Yesterday at 7:42 pm

» Pakistan’s trade with Sri Lanka comes to a halt
by soileconomy Yesterday at 7:35 pm

» Daily Stock Market Update
by Teller Yesterday at 7:18 pm

» Market will test 4700
by karuna2 Yesterday at 12:25 pm

» Keep eye on Politics
by samaritan Yesterday at 11:49 am

» CSE from Dawn of Peace to Rebirth of Terrorism
by Yahapalanaya Yesterday at 9:59 am

» EAST Steady at 18
by mark Yesterday at 9:25 am

» New Support Level 5300
by hammurabi Thu May 23, 2019 8:47 pm

» LIOC upward curve
by karuna2 Thu May 23, 2019 5:57 pm

» SEC yet to publish its 2017 Annual Report
by Teller Thu May 23, 2019 5:10 pm

» HNB Assurance March net down 83-pct
by Teller Thu May 23, 2019 1:18 pm

» PABC net down 13-pct in March; loans contract
by Teller Thu May 23, 2019 1:15 pm

» Indian stocks jumped to record highs
by Teller Thu May 23, 2019 1:13 pm

» modi wins-India to no1 in the world
by Teller Thu May 23, 2019 1:07 pm

» Hayleys revenue up 34% YoY to Rs 219 bn in FY 18/19
by Teller Thu May 23, 2019 1:02 pm

» undervalued stock
by Teller Thu May 23, 2019 1:00 pm

» CIND , 10% guaranteed return
by Teller Thu May 23, 2019 12:57 pm

» INVITATION TO FORUM MODERATORS
by Agape Thu May 23, 2019 8:52 am

» Reputation???
by Uaecoindubai Wed May 22, 2019 7:12 pm

» AIA INSURANCE DE-LISTING (CTCE)
by lokka1 Wed May 22, 2019 12:55 pm

» Sri Lanka’s Top 10 Imports
by Gajaya Wed May 22, 2019 11:16 am

» Top 10 Small Scale Business ideas & Opportunities in Sri Lanka 2019
by Gajaya Wed May 22, 2019 11:15 am

» when bank lending rates put down ?
by nuwanmja Wed May 22, 2019 11:01 am

» Sri Lanka’s largest pension fund EPF return to Colombo Stocks
by wisdom79 Tue May 21, 2019 10:46 pm

» Sri Lanka's EPF enters stock market with blood in the streets
by God Father Tue May 21, 2019 8:21 pm

» Sri Lanka caught in the big power conflicts
by God Father Tue May 21, 2019 8:16 pm

» High Profile Selling at EAST
by Uaecoindubai Tue May 21, 2019 4:43 pm

» A Trader’s Guide to FIX Engine
by Brenda John Tue May 21, 2019 11:24 am

» Reasons for market to crash
by Uaecoindubai Tue May 21, 2019 10:08 am

» ගෙවුම් ශේෂය, වාහන බලපත් හා ඩොලරයේ මිල
by ChooBoy Mon May 20, 2019 5:59 pm

» Terrorism and its Impact on the Sri Lankan Economy
by ChooBoy Mon May 20, 2019 5:41 pm

» Sri Lanka Equity Market Place
by Sstar Mon May 20, 2019 4:36 pm

» Sri Lanka Equity Market Talk
by Sstar Mon May 20, 2019 12:23 pm

» Sri Lanka Equity Market Help
by Sstar Mon May 20, 2019 12:18 pm

» LOFC IN FOR A BIG RUN
by stockback Sun May 19, 2019 5:20 pm

» Look PAP Amazing company
by Uaecoindubai Sun May 19, 2019 5:13 pm

» Sri Lanka Equity Market Place
by Uaecoindubai Sun May 19, 2019 5:13 pm

» CSE NOW AND AFTER ELECTION
by Ahcha Sun May 19, 2019 4:40 pm

» Do not be greedy, rely on small profits Guide to the markets
by Asoka Samarakone Sun May 19, 2019 12:11 pm

» 6 % of EPF funds in stock market
by hammurabi Sat May 18, 2019 3:47 pm

You are not connected. Please login or register

Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » CALF doubled price genuine?

CALF doubled price genuine?

Go down  Message [Page 1 of 1]

1CALF doubled price genuine? Empty CALF doubled price genuine? on Mon May 14, 2018 8:38 pm

lakshanbandara

lakshanbandara
Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
CALF rights issue 559:309 at Rs. 23.30

Current Price: Rs. 62.10
Feb-26 Price: Rs. 25
May-02 Price: Rs. 40

In few (3) months, price doubled.
Is this price manipulation or are there genuine reasons for doubling the price?
If it is manipulation targeting at rights issue, there will be a sudden huge drop in price after XDate.
Need expert advice ASAP before investing.

Thank you.

2CALF doubled price genuine? Empty Re: CALF doubled price genuine? on Mon May 14, 2018 9:39 pm

hirankb

hirankb
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Fundamentals
FY17/18 PAT    -33 mn (loss)
PBV                 6.30   (against a sector PBV of .98)
ROE                 -7.30   ( against a sector ROE of >10)
PER                  -88 x (against a sector PER of 5.75)

technicals
RSI                   77  ( highly over bought)
CMF                  only .15 after years in  negative territory and even after a 600% price gain
OBV                  not following price move but diverging , now nose diving.

Rights ratio        3 for 5 . and that is approx 40% delusion. 

 
Current YOY average volume with a 600% upward price move almost equal to previous YOY average volume with near 0% price move. This is a clear indication the 600% price move during last 12 months was almost totally in-breeding and no new cashflow has come in as indicated by poor CMF reading. 

Unless the company has a mother load of gold stashed off-balance sheet or some politician/s is/are trying to launder their looted money , their is no indication this bullish sentiment is genuine.  

This company is in deep water looking for a life jacket. Pls see if there is any announcements indicating directors buying which I doubt. May be some investor is trying to buy this entity for it's licence. . My forecast is a price  around 35/= after X-rights date and 12/= to 15/= by 3 months after . If you realy want to invest in this sector at this point in time  , why don't you look at COCR. In any case ASI/S&P will only start to move when the CBSL will either shrink the Policy rate corridor further or loosen monetary policy by reducing  AWPLR .Newtons laws of Motion is some what applicable to capital markets as well when big moves are made . When price moves are microscopic , then Schrodinger's wave function and Heisenberg's uncertainty principle are more likely to apply in an abstract form at least Very Happy . This advice given without prejudice. Use your value judgment and make your move. 

If you ask me , I would rather extract my prostrate gland with a fork than buy this stock. 

Remember , if something is too good to be true it usually is.

Even with all this crap, I could be proven wrong as past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.  

Good luck with your investing.

3CALF doubled price genuine? Empty Re: CALF doubled price genuine? on Tue May 15, 2018 6:35 pm

lakshanbandara

lakshanbandara
Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
@hirankb wrote:Fundamentals
FY17/18 PAT    -33 mn (loss)
PBV                 6.30   (against a sector PBV of .98)
ROE                 -7.30   ( against a sector ROE of >10)
PER                  -88 x (against a sector PER of 5.75)

technicals
RSI                   77  ( highly over bought)
CMF                  only .15 after years in  negative territory and even after a 600% price gain
OBV                  not following price move but diverging , now nose diving.

Rights ratio        3 for 5 . and that is approx 40% delusion. 

 
Current YOY average volume with a 600% upward price move almost equal to previous YOY average volume with near 0% price move. This is a clear indication the 600% price move during last 12 months was almost totally in-breeding and no new cashflow has come in as indicated by poor CMF reading. 

Unless the company has a mother load of gold stashed off-balance sheet or some politician/s is/are trying to launder their looted money , their is no indication this bullish sentiment is genuine.  

This company is in deep water looking for a life jacket. Pls see if there is any announcements indicating directors buying which I doubt. May be some investor is trying to buy this entity for it's licence. . My forecast is a price  around 35/= after X-rights date and 12/= to 15/= by 3 months after . If you realy want to invest in this sector at this point in time  , why don't you look at COCR. In any case ASI/S&P will only start to move when the CBSL will either shrink the Policy rate corridor further or loosen monetary policy by reducing  AWPLR .Newtons laws of Motion is some what applicable to capital markets as well when big moves are made . When price moves are microscopic , then Schrodinger's wave function and Heisenberg's uncertainty principle are more likely to apply in an abstract form at least Very Happy . This advice given without prejudice. Use your value judgment and make your move. 

If you ask me , I would rather extract my prostrate gland with a fork than buy this stock. 

Remember , if something is too good to be true it usually is.

Even with all this crap, I could be proven wrong as past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.  

Good luck with your investing.


Thank you for the detailed answer.

I also noticed a similar situation (Rights Issue & Price doubled in few months) with SHL.

SHL pricing seems to be fine.

Stock Prices:

Jan 29 - Rs 12.90

Mar 16 - Rs 24.30 (Announced)

Mar 27 - Rs 21.50 (XDate)

Apr 12 - Rs 21.30

May 15 - Rs 21.90

How do you compare CALF to SHL?

Open for all to comment...
Thank you.

4CALF doubled price genuine? Empty Re: CALF doubled price genuine? on Wed May 16, 2018 9:24 am

hirankb

hirankb
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Highly speculative counter. neither the fundamentals or technicals indicate any inherent driver for this doubling in price after reporting huge reduction in net profits. May be the rise is due to the possibility of SHL is eyed by a foreign investor. If you intend short term trades at considerable risk .. yes go ahead this is better than CALF. Any inside information is already reflected in price. With a ROE of only 0.8% , the shareholders are better off by getting dividend than passing 80% of profits to retained earnings which earns only at a rate of .8% . The ROE has to be higher than AWPLR , by at least by 4% to even trigger your interest as an investor. But if you intend day-trading, then keep your ear to the ground by going to the brokers trading area to seek the market gossip and earn a couple of bucks a day if you are lucky.

5CALF doubled price genuine? Empty Re: CALF doubled price genuine? on Wed May 16, 2018 9:14 pm

gdid


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Yes in SHL case there was a private placement & a right issue. both were at price 17 that was the reason behind SHL. when come to CALF what I see is the Dialog. they are holding around 98.8% of shares in CALF after mandatory offer. so public float is around 1.2%. & Dialog initially paid 28.70/- per share. now the right issue is offer 23.30/- demand went up & due to limited supply share went up and up.

About financial yes there is a huge loss showing in there statement BUT if you go detail you will see the main reason for loss is Impairment loss. check segments main loss sectors are Factoring segment & treasury segment. There cash flow is positive this time.
After all my view is risk is too high but with Dialog & there ability to new innovations this share have expectations.

This is just my view & not a recommendation. comments are always welcome from everyone

6CALF doubled price genuine? Empty Re: CALF doubled price genuine? on Thu May 17, 2018 4:13 pm

DS Wijesinghe


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
NAVPS is just Rs. 8/91 and trading at Rs. 61/- ???
One needs to be extremely brave and make a huge gamble to buy this stock @ 61/- when it’s NAVPS is just Rs. 8/91 and the company is making huge losses.
I am not saying Dialog is incapable of Turing around CALF. They can very well route some of their Group financial business requirements through CALF to turnaround the. Company. Then we need to ask ourselves why couldn’t their former owner Cargills failed to do so? It could be because they had the Bank to do so and it would be difficult to run 2 profitable financial institutions under the same group in today’s macro economic conditions.
In my opinion it is prudent to wait and see until Dialog turns around the company.

7CALF doubled price genuine? Empty Re: CALF doubled price genuine? on Fri May 25, 2018 1:15 pm

Nethu


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
whats going with CALF...?

8CALF doubled price genuine? Empty Re: CALF doubled price genuine? on Sat May 26, 2018 5:07 am

lakshanbandara

lakshanbandara
Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
@hirankb wrote:Highly speculative counter. neither the fundamentals or technicals indicate any inherent driver for this doubling in price after reporting huge reduction in net profits. May be the rise is due to the possibility of SHL is eyed by a foreign investor. If you intend short term trades at considerable risk .. yes go ahead this is better than CALF. Any inside information is already reflected in price. With a ROE of only 0.8% , the shareholders are better off by getting dividend than passing 80% of profits to retained earnings which earns only at a rate of .8% . The ROE has to be higher than AWPLR , by at least by 4% to even trigger your interest as an investor. But if you intend day-trading, then keep your ear to the ground by going to the brokers trading area to seek the market gossip and earn a couple of bucks a day if you are lucky.

On 25-May-2018 (yesterday) 5 pm the Colombo Trust Finance PLC (CALF) - EGM held at Sri Lanka Foundation Institute.

I asked the following question from the chairman:

"
CALF share price more than doubled in 3 months.

Feb 26th Price Rs 25
May 25th Price Rs 67

It's too good to be true.

On the other end,
1. company made loss at the P&L

2. Price to Book ratio is greater than 6, but should be less than 1

Mr. chairman, in your openion
What are the valid reasons (value additions) other than rights issue for this unusual trend in share price?
"

The answers I received from Chairman and Audience were:
"
1. They had no control (no manipulations) over share price.

2. Less shares and buying pressure may have created this unusual trend

3. Share holders may have trusted Dialog as the backing company
"

My concern is:
If no value additions to the share influenced to double it's price, after XDate of the rights issue, the market will correct itself and share holders will have to unload their stock before such corrections to avoid considerable losses.

In that note, with consideration I did not buy CALF shares targeting at the attractive rights issue.

9CALF doubled price genuine? Empty CALF on Mon May 28, 2018 9:32 am

Ranga_17


Stock Trader
With my short analysis CALF has a back up company which is Dialog. Someone buys this share because of Dialog exempt that there is no reason to buy this share in the market. Thus the company share will reduce to previous price limit after right issue some time less than Rs. 20. If you invest in short term this not a your investment.  Surprised

10CALF doubled price genuine? Empty Re: CALF doubled price genuine? on Mon May 28, 2018 12:22 pm

lakshanbandara

lakshanbandara
Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
@Ranga_17 wrote:With my short analysis CALF has a back up company which is Dialog. Someone buys this share because of Dialog exempt that there is no reason to buy this share in the market. Thus the company share will reduce to previous price limit after right issue some time less than Rs. 20. If you invest in short term this not a your investment.  Surprised

I too agree with you.

But, today (after ex-rights date 26-May-2018), the market price is around Rs 45 to Rs 54.

In my calculations, selling price (to break-even with 14% FD in 3 months after 1.12% cost) should be Rs. 50.60 (Buying price averaged to Rs 48.30).

Why the market takes time to correct itself?

11CALF doubled price genuine? Empty Re: CALF doubled price genuine? on Mon May 28, 2018 8:12 pm

Ranga_17


Stock Trader
Today CALF closing price is near Rs. 50 and no bids when closed the market. And most of buyers ask high price, the price will definitely go down on next couple of week. On other hand this share has less liquidity in the market because Dialog has captured near 99% of shares of the company as well as only 1% trading in the market which means share has less attraction for the public. Thus someone who buy this share who could not sell quickly in the market and high risk for price down of the share.

12CALF doubled price genuine? Empty Re: CALF doubled price genuine? on Mon Jun 04, 2018 5:56 pm

Nethu


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
why is the sudden interest for CALF.. Will it move up further..?

13CALF doubled price genuine? Empty Re: CALF doubled price genuine? on Wed Jun 06, 2018 11:16 am

Nethu


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
CALF GOING UP... HUGE BUYING.. IS THIS GOING UP FURTHER....? EXPERTS PLZ COMMENT...

14CALF doubled price genuine? Empty Re: CALF doubled price genuine? on Wed Jun 06, 2018 11:19 pm

Namal


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Highly illiquid share.. someone coloct around 50-53 level... Most of minority shareholders sell there shares at this level.... MAY GO UP..

15CALF doubled price genuine? Empty Re: CALF doubled price genuine? on Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:14 pm

ruwan326

ruwan326
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Namal wrote:Highly illiquid share.. someone coloct around 50-53 level... Most of minority shareholders sell there shares at this level.... MAY GO UP..
Due to ongoing Rights my advice is avoid this share.

16CALF doubled price genuine? Empty Re: CALF doubled price genuine? on Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:23 pm

Namal


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
someone plays a dirty game on this share...

17CALF doubled price genuine? Empty CALF @ 23.30+ on Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:12 am

ruwan326

ruwan326
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Namal wrote:someone plays a dirty game on this share...
If you like to buy CALF wait till Rights falls below 1/= and buy rights and convert by paying 23.30 + lol!

18CALF doubled price genuine? Empty Re: CALF doubled price genuine? on Mon Jun 11, 2018 9:06 pm

Nethu


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
today right price went up to 24.9.

19CALF doubled price genuine? Empty Re: CALF doubled price genuine? on Mon Jun 11, 2018 9:27 pm

ruwan326

ruwan326
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Nethu wrote:today right price went up to 24.9.
Rare to see a Rights going up.......... Most of the time last day it will trade below 1/=

309Rights for 559 @ 23.30 +

lets wait till 14th and see Question

20CALF doubled price genuine? Empty Re: CALF doubled price genuine? on Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:25 am

Nethu


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
no buying interest for rights and even share. less than 1000 shares buying in normal share.. is it worth to sell rights in even above 10.. experts plz explan..

21CALF doubled price genuine? Empty Re: CALF doubled price genuine? on Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:47 am

ruwan326

ruwan326
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Nethu wrote:no buying interest for rights and even share. less than 1000 shares buying in normal share.. is it worth to sell rights in even above 10.. experts plz explan..
Unless you are willing to pay 23.30 and convert Rights you need to sell. On 14th, tomorrow Rights might fall less than Rs1/=. Afters rights renunciation price will further drop.

Back to top  Message [Page 1 of 1]

Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum