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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » CALF doubled price genuine?

CALF doubled price genuine?

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1 CALF doubled price genuine? on Mon May 14, 2018 8:38 pm

lakshanbandara

avatar
Stock Trader
CALF rights issue 559:309 at Rs. 23.30

Current Price: Rs. 62.10
Feb-26 Price: Rs. 25
May-02 Price: Rs. 40

In few (3) months, price doubled.
Is this price manipulation or are there genuine reasons for doubling the price?
If it is manipulation targeting at rights issue, there will be a sudden huge drop in price after XDate.
Need expert advice ASAP before investing.

Thank you.

2 Re: CALF doubled price genuine? on Mon May 14, 2018 9:39 pm

hirankb

avatar
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Fundamentals
FY17/18 PAT    -33 mn (loss)
PBV                 6.30   (against a sector PBV of .98)
ROE                 -7.30   ( against a sector ROE of >10)
PER                  -88 x (against a sector PER of 5.75)

technicals
RSI                   77  ( highly over bought)
CMF                  only .15 after years in  negative territory and even after a 600% price gain
OBV                  not following price move but diverging , now nose diving.

Rights ratio        3 for 5 . and that is approx 40% delusion. 

 
Current YOY average volume with a 600% upward price move almost equal to previous YOY average volume with near 0% price move. This is a clear indication the 600% price move during last 12 months was almost totally in-breeding and no new cashflow has come in as indicated by poor CMF reading. 

Unless the company has a mother load of gold stashed off-balance sheet or some politician/s is/are trying to launder their looted money , their is no indication this bullish sentiment is genuine.  

This company is in deep water looking for a life jacket. Pls see if there is any announcements indicating directors buying which I doubt. May be some investor is trying to buy this entity for it's licence. . My forecast is a price  around 35/= after X-rights date and 12/= to 15/= by 3 months after . If you realy want to invest in this sector at this point in time  , why don't you look at COCR. In any case ASI/S&P will only start to move when the CBSL will either shrink the Policy rate corridor further or loosen monetary policy by reducing  AWPLR .Newtons laws of Motion is some what applicable to capital markets as well when big moves are made . When price moves are microscopic , then Schrodinger's wave function and Heisenberg's uncertainty principle are more likely to apply in an abstract form at least Very Happy . This advice given without prejudice. Use your value judgment and make your move. 

If you ask me , I would rather extract my prostrate gland with a fork than buy this stock. 

Remember , if something is too good to be true it usually is.

Even with all this crap, I could be proven wrong as past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.  

Good luck with your investing.

3 Re: CALF doubled price genuine? on Tue May 15, 2018 6:35 pm

lakshanbandara

avatar
Stock Trader
@hirankb wrote:Fundamentals
FY17/18 PAT    -33 mn (loss)
PBV                 6.30   (against a sector PBV of .98)
ROE                 -7.30   ( against a sector ROE of >10)
PER                  -88 x (against a sector PER of 5.75)

technicals
RSI                   77  ( highly over bought)
CMF                  only .15 after years in  negative territory and even after a 600% price gain
OBV                  not following price move but diverging , now nose diving.

Rights ratio        3 for 5 . and that is approx 40% delusion. 

 
Current YOY average volume with a 600% upward price move almost equal to previous YOY average volume with near 0% price move. This is a clear indication the 600% price move during last 12 months was almost totally in-breeding and no new cashflow has come in as indicated by poor CMF reading. 

Unless the company has a mother load of gold stashed off-balance sheet or some politician/s is/are trying to launder their looted money , their is no indication this bullish sentiment is genuine.  

This company is in deep water looking for a life jacket. Pls see if there is any announcements indicating directors buying which I doubt. May be some investor is trying to buy this entity for it's licence. . My forecast is a price  around 35/= after X-rights date and 12/= to 15/= by 3 months after . If you realy want to invest in this sector at this point in time  , why don't you look at COCR. In any case ASI/S&P will only start to move when the CBSL will either shrink the Policy rate corridor further or loosen monetary policy by reducing  AWPLR .Newtons laws of Motion is some what applicable to capital markets as well when big moves are made . When price moves are microscopic , then Schrodinger's wave function and Heisenberg's uncertainty principle are more likely to apply in an abstract form at least Very Happy . This advice given without prejudice. Use your value judgment and make your move. 

If you ask me , I would rather extract my prostrate gland with a fork than buy this stock. 

Remember , if something is too good to be true it usually is.

Even with all this crap, I could be proven wrong as past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.  

Good luck with your investing.


Thank you for the detailed answer.

I also noticed a similar situation (Rights Issue & Price doubled in few months) with SHL.

SHL pricing seems to be fine.

Stock Prices:

Jan 29 - Rs 12.90

Mar 16 - Rs 24.30 (Announced)

Mar 27 - Rs 21.50 (XDate)

Apr 12 - Rs 21.30

May 15 - Rs 21.90

How do you compare CALF to SHL?

Open for all to comment...
Thank you.

4 Re: CALF doubled price genuine? on Wed May 16, 2018 9:24 am

hirankb

avatar
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Highly speculative counter. neither the fundamentals or technicals indicate any inherent driver for this doubling in price after reporting huge reduction in net profits. May be the rise is due to the possibility of SHL is eyed by a foreign investor. If you intend short term trades at considerable risk .. yes go ahead this is better than CALF. Any inside information is already reflected in price. With a ROE of only 0.8% , the shareholders are better off by getting dividend than passing 80% of profits to retained earnings which earns only at a rate of .8% . The ROE has to be higher than AWPLR , by at least by 4% to even trigger your interest as an investor. But if you intend day-trading, then keep your ear to the ground by going to the brokers trading area to seek the market gossip and earn a couple of bucks a day if you are lucky.

5 Re: CALF doubled price genuine? on Wed May 16, 2018 9:14 pm

gdid


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
Yes in SHL case there was a private placement & a right issue. both were at price 17 that was the reason behind SHL. when come to CALF what I see is the Dialog. they are holding around 98.8% of shares in CALF after mandatory offer. so public float is around 1.2%. & Dialog initially paid 28.70/- per share. now the right issue is offer 23.30/- demand went up & due to limited supply share went up and up.

About financial yes there is a huge loss showing in there statement BUT if you go detail you will see the main reason for loss is Impairment loss. check segments main loss sectors are Factoring segment & treasury segment. There cash flow is positive this time.
After all my view is risk is too high but with Dialog & there ability to new innovations this share have expectations.

This is just my view & not a recommendation. comments are always welcome from everyone

6 Re: CALF doubled price genuine? on Thu May 17, 2018 4:13 pm

DS Wijesinghe


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
NAVPS is just Rs. 8/91 and trading at Rs. 61/- ???
One needs to be extremely brave and make a huge gamble to buy this stock @ 61/- when it’s NAVPS is just Rs. 8/91 and the company is making huge losses.
I am not saying Dialog is incapable of Turing around CALF. They can very well route some of their Group financial business requirements through CALF to turnaround the. Company. Then we need to ask ourselves why couldn’t their former owner Cargills failed to do so? It could be because they had the Bank to do so and it would be difficult to run 2 profitable financial institutions under the same group in today’s macro economic conditions.
In my opinion it is prudent to wait and see until Dialog turns around the company.

Nethu


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
whats going with CALF...?

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