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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED

MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED

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1 MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:49 am

Maharaja


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
First topic message reminder :

I guarantee you a big market fall. 
Exit Immediately !!!
Buyers - wait till 2020



Maharaja


81 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:56 am

ruwan326


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@sampath.anuradha wrote:කොළඹ කොටස් තවමත් අවුරුදු 8 කට කලින් තිබුණු තැනමයි



[ltr]http://biz.adaderana.lk[/ltr]



 “පවතින පොළී අනුපාතිකයයි, විදේශ විනිමය අගය ඉහළ යාමයි සැලකුවොත් මේ වගේ roller-coaster effects එනවා. හැබැයි සමාගම ගත්තොත් අද වෙන කොට ශුද්ධ වත්කම් වටිනකම රු. 42.00 ක් දක්වා ඉහළ ගොස් තිබෙනවා. ඒ කියන්නේ තිබුණු මට්ටමට වඩා ඉහළ මට්ටමකට අපි සමාගම ගෙනල්ලා තිබෙනවා. මම කරන්නේ වත්කම් ගොඩනංවන එක. සමාගමේ කොටසක වෙළෙඳපොළ මිල බලලා මට වැඩක් නැහැ. Roller-coaster effects එනකොට මාකට් උඩ යනවා, පල්ලෙහා යනවා. මෙය දරාගන්න පුළුවන් කියන එකයි මිනිසුන්ගේ ගැටළුව. සුළුපරිමාණ ආයෝජකයින් වෙළෙඳපොළට ගෙන්නුවාට පස්සේ, ඒ ගොල්ලන්ට අල්ලාගෙන සිටීමේ හැකියාවක් (holding power) නැතිනම් ඒ ගොල්ලෝ අමාරුවේ වැටෙනවා. ඒක හින්දා මගේ එක සමාගමක්වත් වෙළෙඳපොළට ගිහිං කොටස් ගන්න කියලා marketing tools එකක්වත් හදලා නැහැ. ඇයි හදන්න බැරි, මේ Roller-coaster effect එකට මිනිස්සු අහුවුණොත් දාන සල්ලි ටික නැති වෙනවා. මේක රු. 25-30 කට ගෙනල්ලා මාකට් කරන එක මට එච්චරම ලොකු ගැටළුවක් නෙමෙයි. හැබැයි අනිත් කම්පැනීස් කරනවා. ප්‍රතිපත්තියක් විදියට අපේ කිසිම සමාගමක් එහෙම කරන්නේ නැහැ. වත්කම් ගොඩනැගීම තමයි අපිට කරන්න පුළුවන් එකම දේ._ධම්මික පෙරේරා


http://biz.adaderana.lk/කොළඹ-කොටස්-තවමත්-අවුරුදු-8/

82 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:29 pm

DS Wijesinghe


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Maharaja wrote:Maharaja's call is Immediate EXIT for JKH. 

Now its not the time to think about investing in JKH for any period. Your question can be valid after 18 months.

Price Maharaja will buy ? Only below 60/-
I do not give target price of 60/- but my bid is 60/-


Maharaja.
OK thanks for your feedback

One more question: 

If you are to Buy Commercial Bank Voting Stock, what would be your Bid Price?

83 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:48 pm

TraderCSE


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Maharaja wrote:Maharaja's call is Immediate EXIT for JKH. 

Now its not the time to think about investing in JKH for any period. Your question can be valid after 18 months.

Price Maharaja will buy ? Only below 60/-
I do not give target price of 60/- but my bid is 60/-


Maharaja.

Who is this "Maharaja"? 

If this happens (At least to a certain extent) where the ASI will ended up? 

I'm not going to argue with his prediction as so far he is correct on ASI prediction though I don't want it to happen in that way.

Anyway I'm also looking at to buy JKH and COMB during next down turn. Need your advise on COMB also.

84 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:49 am

ruwan326


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@TraderCSE wrote:
@Maharaja wrote:Maharaja's call is Immediate EXIT for JKH. 

Now its not the time to think about investing in JKH for any period. Your question can be valid after 18 months.

Price Maharaja will buy ? Only below 60/-
I do not give target price of 60/- but my bid is 60/-


Maharaja.

Who is this "Maharaja"? 

If this happens (At least to a certain extent) where the ASI will ended up? 

I'm not going to argue with his prediction as so far he is correct on ASI prediction though I don't want it to happen in that way.

Anyway I'm also looking at to buy JKH and COMB during next down turn. Need your advise on COMB also.

http://biz.adaderana.lk/කොළඹ-කොටස්-තවමත්-අවුරුදු-8/
Go through this article first and get all the details. You have to learn the hard way when it comes to trading and investing in CSE. Some say wait till 2020 and that is the most childish thing to say. Whether Bull or Bear market you should be able to invest and trade, to do that do your own analysis and be brave to pick the winning shares @the right time. Do not pick a share depending on predictions/rumors/forums or just because some one said Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy  Do your own analysis first by using investing.com,CSE.lk and annual reports and quarter results and etc...........

85 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:52 am

ruwan326


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@ruwan326 wrote:
@TraderCSE wrote:
@Maharaja wrote:Maharaja's call is Immediate EXIT for JKH. 

Now its not the time to think about investing in JKH for any period. Your question can be valid after 18 months.

Price Maharaja will buy ? Only below 60/-
I do not give target price of 60/- but my bid is 60/-


Maharaja.

Who is this "Maharaja"? 

If this happens (At least to a certain extent) where the ASI will ended up? 

I'm not going to argue with his prediction as so far he is correct on ASI prediction though I don't want it to happen in that way.

Anyway I'm also looking at to buy JKH and COMB during next down turn. Need your advise on COMB also.

http://biz.adaderana.lk/කොළඹ-කොටස්-තවමත්-අවුරුදු-8/
Go through this article first and get all the details. You have to learn the hard way when it comes to trading and investing in CSE. Some say wait till 2020 and that is the most childish thing to say. Whether Bull or Bear market you should be able to invest and trade, to do that do your own analysis and be brave to pick the winning shares @the right time. Do not pick a share depending on predictions/rumors/forums or just because some one said Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy  Do your own analysis first by using investing.com,CSE.lk and annual reports and quarter results and etc...........
Who is this "Maharaja"?

the answer is he must be the son of this fellow(Sumanadasa uncle)

86 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Wed Jul 11, 2018 7:59 am

easthetic


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
@DS Wijesinghe wrote:
@Maharaja wrote:
@Maharaja wrote:If anybody have JKH in their portfolios please sell now. It is a very good price now to exit JKH.


Maharaja

I remind you again, clear JKH from your portfolios. 
It is like keeping dead animal inside the house. clean the dead animal before the smell spreads inside the house.


Maharaja
Is this stock in your watch list Maharaja? If so 

1. at what price do you think it is worth for a 5-6 year investment?

2. if you are going to buy this stock at what price would you buy?
Rs.60.. :evil:

87 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:49 am

TraderCSE


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@ruwan326 wrote:
@TraderCSE wrote:
@Maharaja wrote:Maharaja's call is Immediate EXIT for JKH. 

Now its not the time to think about investing in JKH for any period. Your question can be valid after 18 months.

Price Maharaja will buy ? Only below 60/-
I do not give target price of 60/- but my bid is 60/-


Maharaja.

Who is this "Maharaja"? 

If this happens (At least to a certain extent) where the ASI will ended up? 

I'm not going to argue with his prediction as so far he is correct on ASI prediction though I don't want it to happen in that way.

Anyway I'm also looking at to buy JKH and COMB during next down turn. Need your advise on COMB also.

http://biz.adaderana.lk/කොළඹ-කොටස්-තවමත්-අවුරුදු-8/
Go through this article first and get all the details. You have to learn the hard way when it comes to trading and investing in CSE. Some say wait till 2020 and that is the most childish thing to say. Whether Bull or Bear market you should be able to invest and trade, to do that do your own analysis and be brave to pick the winning shares @the right time. Do not pick a share depending on predictions/rumors/forums or just because some one said Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy  Do your own analysis first by using investing.com,CSE.lk and annual reports and quarter results and etc...........

Thanks Ruwan,

I did every thing before building up current PF. But it is now at 50% lost. Can't see any recovery up to date. If this down trend continues I don't think I can survive any more as I'm on the huge margin.

But hope for the best.

Thanks lot for your advice.

ruwan326

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@TraderCSE wrote:
@ruwan326 wrote:
@TraderCSE wrote:
@Maharaja wrote:Maharaja's call is Immediate EXIT for JKH. 

Now its not the time to think about investing in JKH for any period. Your question can be valid after 18 months.

Price Maharaja will buy ? Only below 60/-
I do not give target price of 60/- but my bid is 60/-


Maharaja.

Who is this "Maharaja"? 

If this happens (At least to a certain extent) where the ASI will ended up? 

I'm not going to argue with his prediction as so far he is correct on ASI prediction though I don't want it to happen in that way.

Anyway I'm also looking at to buy JKH and COMB during next down turn. Need your advise on COMB also.

http://biz.adaderana.lk/කොළඹ-කොටස්-තවමත්-අවුරුදු-8/
Go through this article first and get all the details. You have to learn the hard way when it comes to trading and investing in CSE. Some say wait till 2020 and that is the most childish thing to say. Whether Bull or Bear market you should be able to invest and trade, to do that do your own analysis and be brave to pick the winning shares @the right time. Do not pick a share depending on predictions/rumors/forums or just because some one said Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy  Do your own analysis first by using investing.com,CSE.lk and annual reports and quarter results and etc...........

Thanks Ruwan,

I did every thing before building up current PF. But it is now at 50% lost. Can't see any recovery up to date. If this down trend continues I don't think I can survive any more as I'm on the huge margin.

But hope for the best.

Thanks lot for your advice.
http://www.ft.lk/front-page/COMBank-goes-for-Rs--10-b-Basel-III-compliant-debentures/44-658815

89 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:34 am

Maharaja


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Maharaja wrote:
@Eugine Fernando wrote:
@Maharaja wrote:
@Maharaja wrote:I believe my technical analysis. 6077 will test. 

When everybody including asha phillips said 6200 support said I told No, it will break. 
Likewise 6077 will test for sure.


Maharaja
Though I don't like your comments, I salutes to your predictions. So tell us now what next. :drunken: :drunken:




Thankyou Mr.Fernando. Today ASI reached my support level. Tomorrow we can see how the 6077 support reacts.

What is next ?
I expect a technical bounce tomorrow. But only a short term bounce. Not a market turnaround. Market is in extreme BEAR market category. ASI direction is 100% downwards. 
SO there will only be short term trading opportunities when market moves sideways for 100-150 points. 

Can ASI break 6077 tomorrow ?
Yes, it can break if selling pressure applied. Bad news is still real selling did not begin. Japanese,Korean,Middle-east & European funds didn't even think to exit the counters. So I expect a technical bounce only due to oversold levels in S&P counters.

When to BUY ?

In this kind of extreme BEAR market I cannot recommend to buy. If we analyse the market, nothing is positive. Earlier company earning were good but now if you analyse financial reports, earnings keep dropping. Main sectors - Banking NPLs higher, Int.expenses higher. Construction sector - SME construction companies closing, No FDIs to start new projects. So in next couple of years company earnings will fall further with interest rates crossing sky high levels.

Politics and CSE ?

As I see, we all must follow a wait and see approach till 2020.
Till 2020 there will be no political change. This government will continue till 2020. 

Who will come to power in 2020 ?

The presidential candidate from Pohottu party will surely win the contest without doubts.

Will CSE rise in 2020 ?

I am doubtful. As soon as Pohottu party wins, the European trade bans will be put. Fish ban will come into effect. Human rights cases against SL will begin once again. So conditions will be worse for the country and CSE after election.
But political stability will be there in the country. New investments will begin to flow.
So there will be mixed effects which we will see. It is too early to predict about about these political effects.


When to enter this bear market ?

After presidential election in 2020 we have to see if the new Pohottu government will actually do a change to the economy. If they are able to bring proper growth to country then CSE will grow.
If they also eat the economy CSE will fall.
SIMPLE AS THAT.

Till then we have to follow a wait and see approach.


What is next support level ?

6000 is the psychological support level. Not a technical support level. 
If 6077 breaks, next is 6020-6023 area support. 
And after 6020-6023, it is down to 5800 support. This is really a strong support. I don't think market needs to test this level soon. May be this month end/ next month it is possible but not this week.


Happy trading,
Maharaja


Good to see a green market after a long time.
Sideway movement like this can swing between 6020 area and 6200 area. As Maharaja told 10% profit is possible.

Now I will give my next prediction.
Market will test ASI 5800. I am telling this while market is in upswing. 



Maharaja

90 Maharaja vs Sumanadasa on Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:55 am

ruwan326

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Maharaja wrote:
@Maharaja wrote:
@Eugine Fernando wrote:
@Maharaja wrote:
@Maharaja wrote:I believe my technical analysis. 6077 will test. 

When everybody including asha phillips said 6200 support said I told No, it will break. 
Likewise 6077 will test for sure.


Maharaja
Though I don't like your comments, I salutes to your predictions. So tell us now what next. drunken drunken




Thankyou Mr.Fernando. Today ASI reached my support level. Tomorrow we can see how the 6077 support reacts.

What is next ?
I expect a technical bounce tomorrow. But only a short term bounce. Not a market turnaround. Market is in extreme BEAR market category. ASI direction is 100% downwards. 
SO there will only be short term trading opportunities when market moves sideways for 100-150 points. 

Can ASI break 6077 tomorrow ?
Yes, it can break if selling pressure applied. Bad news is still real selling did not begin. Japanese,Korean,Middle-east & European funds didn't even think to exit the counters. So I expect a technical bounce only due to oversold levels in S&P counters.

When to BUY ?

In this kind of extreme BEAR market I cannot recommend to buy. If we analyse the market, nothing is positive. Earlier company earning were good but now if you analyse financial reports, earnings keep dropping. Main sectors - Banking NPLs higher, Int.expenses higher. Construction sector - SME construction companies closing, No FDIs to start new projects. So in next couple of years company earnings will fall further with interest rates crossing sky high levels.

Politics and CSE ?

As I see, we all must follow a wait and see approach till 2020.
Till 2020 there will be no political change. This government will continue till 2020. 

Who will come to power in 2020 ?

The presidential candidate from Pohottu party will surely win the contest without doubts.

Will CSE rise in 2020 ?

I am doubtful. As soon as Pohottu party wins, the European trade bans will be put. Fish ban will come into effect. Human rights cases against SL will begin once again. So conditions will be worse for the country and CSE after election.
But political stability will be there in the country. New investments will begin to flow.
So there will be mixed effects which we will see. It is too early to predict about about these political effects.


When to enter this bear market ?

After presidential election in 2020 we have to see if the new Pohottu government will actually do a change to the economy. If they are able to bring proper growth to country then CSE will grow.
If they also eat the economy CSE will fall.
SIMPLE AS THAT.

Till then we have to follow a wait and see approach.


What is next support level ?

6000 is the psychological support level. Not a technical support level. 
If 6077 breaks, next is 6020-6023 area support. 
And after 6020-6023, it is down to 5800 support. This is really a strong support. I don't think market needs to test this level soon. May be this month end/ next month it is possible but not this week.


Happy trading,
Maharaja


Good to see a green market after a long time.
Sideway movement like this can swing between 6020 area and 6200 area. As Maharaja told 10% profit is possible.

Now I will give my next prediction.
Market will test ASI 5800. I am telling this while market is in upswing. 



Maharaja

91 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:11 pm

Small Investor


Stock Trader
What is the definition for the term "Market Crash"?

As I have heard/learnt it's "a decline of 10% or over of the indices just in one day" ?Has this happened after this thread is opened. No.

It will never happen, unless, the current Macro/Micro economic/political variables change or turn negative so rapidly that it induces  such a catastrophe.   

What you all witness now a days is not a Market Crash but a normal decline of indices in response to Macro and Micro economic factors/variables of our country and the world at large.

My advise is that this should be taken as an opportunity to slowly collect value stocks in small quantities with cash(not on credit).

92 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:35 pm

Eugine Fernando


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Even with the down trend market there are opportunities to earn some money, for a example if you all watch the announcement of PCHH you could have earned more than 100% profit with in a short period of time. I myself after reading their announcement yesterday Bought this share @ -/40, I think by next week I can easily make over 100%. so friends without looking only fundamentally strong shares, use your brain and go for this kind of shares and minimize your loses, I know mostly all forum members have lost their hard earn money with the present market situation. my advice is when ever you get chances to earn some money make use of that. GD

93 Maharaja king of CSE or Sumanadasa junior on Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:42 pm

ruwan326

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Small Investor wrote:What is the definition for the term "Market Crash"?

As I have heard/learnt it's "a decline of 10% or over of the indices just in one day" ?Has this happened after this thread is opened. No.

It will never happen, unless, the current Macro/Micro economic/political variables change or turn negative so rapidly that it induces  such a catastrophe.   

What you all witness now a days is not a Market Crash but a normal decline of indices in response to Macro and Micro economic factors/variables of our country and the world at large.

My advise is that this should be taken as an opportunity to slowly collect value stocks in small quantities with cash(not on credit).
Good one Small investor, do your own analysis and invest, you will never loose cheers cheers cheers

94 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Fri Jul 13, 2018 9:02 am

jayathu


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
what ever said and done we have to accept that maharaja prediction was somewhat right that market will come down 6077.

His prediction of JKH coming to 60 level is wrong, thats what i believe. It wont come below 100 level if they have 2-6 bad qtrs. They're aggressively in property business and building up capacity in other segment.Those business efficiently turnaround and show good bottom line growth. Right now with JKH, it's wait n see approach. If u have holding power accumulate now and keep some cash in reserve. If next two to three qtrs are not as expected there might be a chance of collecting at 120 level.

Right now market is going sideways. My prediction is invest half of your allocated funds in equity now and see next two qtrs. Enter again in 2019 after march to avg your price or consolidate your original position.

95 A country depend on predictions only on Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:06 am

ruwan326

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@jayathu wrote:what ever said and done we have to accept that maharaja prediction was somewhat right that market will come down 6077.

His prediction of JKH coming to 60 level is wrong, thats what i believe. It wont come below 100 level if they have 2-6 bad qtrs. They're aggressively in property business and building up capacity in other segment.Those business efficiently turnaround and show good bottom line growth. Right now with JKH, it's wait n see approach. If u have holding power accumulate now and keep some cash in reserve. If next two to three qtrs are not as expected there might be a chance of collecting at 120 level.

Right now market is going sideways. My prediction is invest half of your allocated funds in equity now and see next two qtrs. Enter again in 2019 after march to avg your price or consolidate your original position.  
You decide, predictions or facts ??????????
Any one predict ASI will come down to 6044 ??????
No one could cause it is not controlled by maharaja or his father and if you can not understand this simple fact good luck for your future in CSE affraid affraid affraid affraid 


https://www.investing.com/indices/cse-all-share

96 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:28 am

jayathu


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
what i said was he predicted it'll come down to 6077 level and it'll support there. Which was right when you saw what happened last two weeks. If u go through this thread, everyone blasted him it wont come down to 6077 level.




97 Helping criminals friends in CSE on Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:38 am

ruwan326

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@jayathu wrote:what i said was he predicted it'll come down to 6077 level and it'll support there. Which was right when you saw what happened last two weeks. If u go through this thread, everyone blasted him it wont come down to 6077 level.




What he has done is put fuel in to fire..... Made a prediction and keep on saying market will fall....market will fall and market will fall..... begged poor retailers to sell their shares @ lower so maharaja's criminal friends who invest in SCE can collect them cheaply. Now the market is green and they are selling the same shares with profit to you lol!

98 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:39 am

jayathu


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@ruwan326 i know that it's not controlled by maharaja. Thank you stating the obvious.

What controls the market is demand and supply. when economic front it's not going in the right direction, people tend to loose interest in equity. Investing in Equity is risky proposition when compared to other investment assets that are out there. When economic implementation is not happening properly, entire economy suffers. Right now everyone revised the GDP growth downward, even recently CB stated that. With the upcoming budget, everyone is eagerly waiting for the budget proposals. Finance minister needs to balance economy and political future with this budget. That's why all the big to medium scale investors are not that interested in the market.

http://www.economynext.com/Sri_Lanka_policy_instability_stability,_lack_of_qualified_labour_holding_FDI_back__survey-3-11202-1.html

99 Now helping to collect JKH on Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:43 am

ruwan326

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Now he is predicting fake news about JKH will fall in 60/=
and helping his criminal friends to collect them @ cheap price.

I don't think I need to explain anymore about this maharaja and his predictions any more, cause even a 5year old can understated what kind of a person maharaja and what he do Mad Mad Mad Mad

100 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Fri Jul 13, 2018 10:51 am

jayathu


Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
do you honestly beleive that people invest in shares on CSE looking at Maharaja comments???? His JKH prediction is wrong from my point of view.
I cant see that happening cause JKH fundamentally sound stock growing through some hard times these days.

His prediction on ASI movement was right but i believe his JKH prediction is wrong. That's all i'm saying. Please go through what i have mentioned earlier.


101 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Sat Jul 14, 2018 6:59 am

DS Wijesinghe


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Please let me intervene at this point for a clarification on JKH

Maharaja did not say JKH will come down to 60/-.

I asked him 2 questions

1. If I am (me) to buy JKH what is the price level he thinks is a good investment for 5-6 year period?
He replied saying in his opinion JKH is now a risky investment and does not recommend to buy in the next 1 1/2 years. He said to consider buying JKH only after another 1 1/2 years. 

2. If he (Maharaja) is to buy JKH what is the price he would Buy?
He replied saying, to him JKH is worth only 60/-.  He also said that he is not saying that JKH will come down to 60/- BUT his BID price for JKH would be 60/-

This is just to clarify, with regard to his remarks on JKH

102 predections vs reality on Sat Jul 14, 2018 7:18 am

ruwan326

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing." - Phillip Fisher

103 JKH Miserable Future Till 2020 on Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:30 pm

DS Wijesinghe


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
On 17th May 2017 Mark Levin predicted a miserable future for John Keels till 2020 in this forum. I am copying and pasting below his post.



A recent Analysis of John Keells done by an International Fund Management Company. Some say Khazanah Nasional Berhad Fund of Malaysia will start shedding the shares.

Sri Lanka's John Keells at a Decisive Moment and at a Miserable Future until 2020


In order to fund the Watefront Project (Cinnamon Life) JKH raised Rs.23.1 billion (approx US$ 178mn) in FY 2013/14 by way of a rights issue attached with two types of warrants. Subsequently by excising the warrants Rs.8 billion was raised in 2015 but however the 2016 warrant was heavily undersubscribed. Only Rs.3.2 billion was raised from it though it was supposed to raise Rs.8.6 billion. This was because investors were doubtful about the success of this project and how wisely JKH has used the cash from the rights issue.

Extraordinary gains and interest income from the recent rights issue have buoyed earnings during the last several years. In 2016, interest income of Rs.8,011mn amounted to the 42% of PBT and far exceeded the best performing leisure sector which posted pre-tax profit of only Rs2,311mn. Going forward, such large amounts of interest income may not recur as rights issue proceeds will get utilized in the Water Front Project in the next two years.  

"Waterfront Project” is now behind schedule and there has been a cost overrun in the piling stage of the project due to unanticipated barriers. Officially there has been an acceptance of an 18 month delay by Hyndai, Keangnam, & Nawaloka (HKN-Joint Venture) that would result in reduction in profitability of the project. 

During FY 2015/16 ROCE of all sectors of JKH have improved. However excluding the Food & Retail, Financial Services, and Transportation Sectors all other major sectors’ ROCE is below the 12 month Treasury Bill yield, with some sectors operating at less than half the TB rate.

JKH management sold down their stakes in Union Assurance, Access Engineering and Expo Lanka Holdings and recognized capital gains of Rs2.2 billion in 2014/15. Reasons for this move have not been satisfactorily explained. As JKH has sufficient cash, perhaps these sales demonstrate a pre-occupation with short-term earnings rather than a long-term strategic focus. However investments in hotels which JKH management are eyeing to dispose are rather difficult to be sold immediately.  Hence there won’t be any capital gains realized through sale of investments in the near future.   

Waterfront Project is the largest private sector investment to date in Sri Lanka with an estimated cost of approximately USD 800 Million. The company has entered in to USD 395 Million syndicated loan facility with Standard Charted Bank being the required debt financing for this project. The massive interest cost of this syndicated loan will be capitalized in to fixed assets under the accruals basis of accounting. However after completing the project the interest cost will get charged to the income statement as an expense which will significantly reduce profitability. The income generated from various buildings of the project will take many years to exceed the interest charge.

104 JKH vs CSE on Sun Jul 15, 2018 8:06 am

ruwan326

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@DS Wijesinghe wrote:On 17th May 2017 Mark Levin predicted a miserable future for John Keels till 2020 in this forum. I am copying and pasting below his post.



A recent Analysis of John Keells done by an International Fund Management Company. Some say Khazanah Nasional Berhad Fund of Malaysia will start shedding the shares.

Sri Lanka's John Keells at a Decisive Moment and at a Miserable Future until 2020


In order to fund the Watefront Project (Cinnamon Life) JKH raised Rs.23.1 billion (approx US$ 178mn) in FY 2013/14 by way of a rights issue attached with two types of warrants. Subsequently by excising the warrants Rs.8 billion was raised in 2015 but however the 2016 warrant was heavily undersubscribed. Only Rs.3.2 billion was raised from it though it was supposed to raise Rs.8.6 billion. This was because investors were doubtful about the success of this project and how wisely JKH has used the cash from the rights issue.

Extraordinary gains and interest income from the recent rights issue have buoyed earnings during the last several years. In 2016, interest income of Rs.8,011mn amounted to the 42% of PBT and far exceeded the best performing leisure sector which posted pre-tax profit of only Rs2,311mn. Going forward, such large amounts of interest income may not recur as rights issue proceeds will get utilized in the Water Front Project in the next two years.  

"Waterfront Project” is now behind schedule and there has been a cost overrun in the piling stage of the project due to unanticipated barriers. Officially there has been an acceptance of an 18 month delay by Hyndai, Keangnam, & Nawaloka (HKN-Joint Venture) that would result in reduction in profitability of the project. 

During FY 2015/16 ROCE of all sectors of JKH have improved. However excluding the Food & Retail, Financial Services, and Transportation Sectors all other major sectors’ ROCE is below the 12 month Treasury Bill yield, with some sectors operating at less than half the TB rate.

JKH management sold down their stakes in Union Assurance, Access Engineering and Expo Lanka Holdings and recognized capital gains of Rs2.2 billion in 2014/15. Reasons for this move have not been satisfactorily explained. As JKH has sufficient cash, perhaps these sales demonstrate a pre-occupation with short-term earnings rather than a long-term strategic focus. However investments in hotels which JKH management are eyeing to dispose are rather difficult to be sold immediately.  Hence there won’t be any capital gains realized through sale of investments in the near future.   

Waterfront Project is the largest private sector investment to date in Sri Lanka with an estimated cost of approximately USD 800 Million. The company has entered in to USD 395 Million syndicated loan facility with Standard Charted Bank being the required debt financing for this project. The massive interest cost of this syndicated loan will be capitalized in to fixed assets under the accruals basis of accounting. However after completing the project the interest cost will get charged to the income statement as an expense which will significantly reduce profitability. The income generated from various buildings of the project will take many years to exceed the interest charge.
There was a time JKH trading directly influence CSE. But recently with out JKH trading CSE can survive Very Happy
If we can focus and pick valuable counters we don't have to worry about JKH trading at all. Many blue chips lining up too  Basketball Basketball Basketball

105 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Sun Jul 15, 2018 11:11 am

Maharaja


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Dear members,

Pls note the next support level 

ASI - 5800-5810 area

This support will be tested. 


Maharaja.

106 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Sun Jul 15, 2018 11:15 am

Maharaja


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
The members who blame me and recommend others to buy shares - Pls recommend dividend paying shares because capital gains are hard/too risky in this Bear market. 
The Bear market will continue whether we like or not. So keep money in dividend paying shares only.
So even if share falls you will have dividend return. 


Maharaja

107 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Sun Jul 15, 2018 1:30 pm

Avon


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
So is it that the market will move down from here or reach 6200 as you said previously.

So whats next after 5800. Further down or we can expect a recovery from there. Thanks

108 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Sun Jul 15, 2018 4:20 pm

Maharaja


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Market will trade sideways and come down. 5800 will not reach tomorrow. It will happen with ASI traveling sideways. Prev. I told was market will trade between 6020---6200 which is what we saw last weeks. 5800 is strong support. I expect bounce from there. 15% return opportunity will be available - short term during bounce. 

Maharaja

109 CSE invesrots these days on Mon Jul 16, 2018 6:43 am

ruwan326

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Maharaja wrote:Market will trade sideways and come down. 5800 will not reach tomorrow. It will happen with ASI traveling sideways. Prev. I told was market will trade between 6020---6200 which is what we saw last weeks. 5800 is strong support. I expect bounce from there. 15% return opportunity will be available - short term during bounce. 

Maharaja
These days CSE investors Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

110 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Mon Jul 16, 2018 7:52 am

easthetic


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
Very Happy

111 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Mon Jul 16, 2018 8:47 am

Avon


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
Thanks, lets see how accurate you are. Anyway its good to be prepared for any eventuality

112 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Tue Jul 17, 2018 10:31 am

anjelo

avatar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
await the quarter results. till august end the market will be above 6000

113 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED on Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:51 pm

Maharaja


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
@Avon wrote:Thanks, lets see how accurate you are. Anyway its good to be prepared for any eventuality

Maharaja is always accurate. Now almost 6200 level. So this is the sideway movement I told. ASI will turn back to 6000 side about next week. 

As I told ASI will test 5800. 


Maharaja

ruwan326

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Maharaja wrote:
@Avon wrote:Thanks, lets see how accurate you are. Anyway its good to be prepared for any eventuality

Maharaja is always accurate. Now almost 6200 level. So this is the sideway movement I told. ASI will turn back to 6000 side about next week. 

As I told ASI will test 5800. 


Maharaja
Maharaja, my friend can you came back to this forum after 2020????? Sleep Sleep
people come here to do invest and trading only.

Till then start reading horoscope and fortune telling or invest in Negambo fish market.

No one gives a horse shit for your predictions my friend pig pig pig

ruwan326

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Most of the people here in this forum know what is your hidden agenda Very Happy 

Every time market green you bring your horse shit and try to scare some inexperience retailers to do panic selling.

Then your criminal friends who invest in CSE can buy them cheap.

This forum is not a place for fools and mental sick people, if you are saying some thing bring proof- technical analysis /charts/resources and etc Idea

I bet you don't even have a brain to do these kind of analysis, you only act like a parrot"market is crashing....market is crashing..... market is crashing......Bla... bla.. bla

I would like to inform all the moderate and admin to kindly look in to these kind of posts made by jokers and mental sick people and do the necessary to save investors.


If you have a technical or fundamental or any other facts it is time to bring it my friend maharaja or we have to call you 🐷some other raja.

116 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED Yesterday at 7:41 am

Ryan Hudson


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@ruwan326 wrote:Most of the people here in this forum know what is your hidden agenda Very Happy 

Every time market green you bring your horse shit and try to scare some inexperience retailers to do panic selling.

Then your criminal friends who invest in CSE can buy them cheap.

This forum is not a place for fools and mental sick people, if you are saying some thing bring proof- technical analysis /charts/resources and etc Idea

I bet you don't even have a brain to do these kind of analysis, you only act like a parrot"market is crashing....market is crashing..... market is crashing......Bla... bla.. bla

I would like to inform all the moderate and admin to kindly look in to these kind of posts made by jokers and mental sick people and do the necessary to save investors.


If you have a technical or fundamental or any other facts it is time to bring it my friend maharaja or we have to call you 🐷some other raja.
Finally rich will get richer and poor gets poorer due to panic selling, In my opinion this is the best time for new investors

117 maharaja watch and learn Yesterday at 10:16 am

ruwan326

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
There was a former president who took astrologist(Sumanadasa) advice and lost his presidency was called maharaja Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy 

Now we have another maharaja here in this forum and if investors like to take his advice(Sumanadasa junior) just remember what happened to president maharaja Crying or Very sad Crying or Very sad Crying or Very sad Crying or Very sad 

If you check ASI in the year 2010 and now you will not find much of a DIFFERENCE and there is no such thing called market crash Wink Wink Wink


Well maharaja watch and learn
https://youtu.be/u_YD2vfBefo

118 Re: MARKET CRASH - GUARANTEED Yesterday at 8:07 pm

hasitha@CSE


Stock Trader
Plzzzzzzzzzzz stop this Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad Evil or Very Mad

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