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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Asian shares lose steam as U.S. tariff plan stokes trade fears

Asian shares lose steam as U.S. tariff plan stokes trade fears

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ruwan326

ruwan326
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Asian shares gave up ground on Wednesday, with weak data in the region and fears of an imminent escalation in the tariff war between the United States and China pulling markets lower even as strong earnings out of the U.S. provided some support. Conflicting signs over the state of U.S.-China trade relations pulled markets in opposite directions. A Bloomberg report on Tuesday said that the United States and China were seeking to resume trade talks to defuse a battle over import tariffs.

However, later reports that the U.S. administration plans to propose tariffs of 25 percent instead of the initially proposed 10 percent on $200 billion of imported Chinese goods injected uncertainty back into financial markets. A source familiar with the plan said the announcement could come as early as Wednesday. Chinese shares, the offshore yuan and the Australian dollar all weakened. 

In Asia, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.1 percent, erasing earlier gains, while Japan’s Nikkei stock index gained 0.8 percent. S&P E-mini futures were down less than 0.1 percent at 2,815.75 after earlier edging higher. The Taiwan weighted index rose 0.4 percent, with tech shares getting a boost after Apple Inc. beat Wall Street expectations for its quarterly results thanks to robust sales of its top-of-the-line iPhone X. The company’s shares rose 3.4 percent to $196.80 in after-hours trade. 

The survey showed China’s manufacturing sector grew at its slowest pace in eight months in July, dragged down by declining export orders. The Shanghai Composite index fell 0.8 percent, while the blue-chip CSI300 index lost 1 percent. Australia’s manufacturing sector also showed slower activity in July, with the Commonwealth Bank/Markit purchasing managers index at its lowest level in nearly two years. Australian shares were flat, with some support coming from miners ahead of expected strong results from Rio Tinto later on Wednesday. Policy meetings at the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of England on Thursday also kept some investors on the sidelines. Although the U.S. central bank is expected to hold rates unchanged, investors will be looking for any change in the tone of its policy statement. Meanwhile, oil prices fell on industry data showing an unexpected rise in U.S. crude stockpiles. The slump in crude prices comes after their largest monthly decline in two years in July. U.S. crude dipped 0.4 percent to $68.47 a barrel, while Brent gave up 0.2 percent to $74.04 per barrel. Spot gold fell 0.3 percent to $1,219.91 per ounce. (reuters.com)

DS Wijesinghe


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

US Stocks Rebound On Trade Optimism And Strong Economic Reports


US Stocks were higher across the board yesterday with the small-cap Russell 2000 Index leading the way.

News that the US and China are trying to restart trade talks sent stocks up. Of course, just having talks is different than reaching an agreement. But just like the markets cheered the progress between the US and the EU, traders were clearly encouraged by this as well. 

Nobody wants a trade war. Especially China, which is mired in a bear market.

In other news, yesterday's Personal Income and Outlays report showed income up 0.4% m/m with spending up the same. The PCE Index was up 0.1% m/m and 2.2% y/y. Analysts noted the 'easing inflation pressure' along with the 'healthy consumer'.

Retail sales, as reported by the Redbook numbers, showed same store sales growing at a clip of 4.2%, up from last month's pace of 3.8%.

The S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index was up 0.7% m/m and 6.5% y/y. 

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index jumped up to 65.5 vs. last month's 64.1 and views for 62.3, and characterized its continuing pace as 'torrid'. 

Consumer Confidence was 'steady and strong', rising to 127.4 from last month's 126.4.

And the State Street Investor Confidence Index increased to 101.8 from last month's print of 101.7. The North American component edged lower by 0.9 points but finished at a solid 103.4. Europe increased 0.7 points to 91.5. And Asia rose by 0.5 points at 103.3. All in all, it shows the 'accumulation of equities by global institutional investors' continues, and bodes well for stocks.

We'll get more earnings reports today, and later in the afternoon we'll get the FOMC Meeting Announcement. The Fed is expected to keep rates steady. Nonetheless, the market is anticipating two more rate hikes by the end of the year. Just not today.

DS Wijesinghe


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
In spite of the above positive report on US stock markets re-bounding I predict US stock markets would see a significant market down turn similar to a market crash either this year or within the first 6 months of 2019

p.s. I hope Ruwan will not chase after me for predicting US market to crash Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

4 CRASH on Thu Aug 02, 2018 6:51 am

ruwan326

ruwan326
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@DS Wijesinghe wrote:In spite of the above positive report on US stock markets re-bounding I predict US stock markets would see a significant market down turn similar to a market crash either this year or within the first 6 months of 2019

p.s. I hope Ruwan will not chase after me for predicting US market to crash Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

Lets say you are on a plane and it's going to crash, will you be happy Mad Mad Mad

Same goes for stock market Wink

As retailers we like to make some profit form our hard earned investment money  Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes

If all the forum members can help each others to pick winning shares through out the year that only matters........... Suspect

Market going to crash/invest after 2020/ ASI predictions without proper analysis/ Sumandasa's predictions/maharaja's predictions (sumanadasa junior) not going to help us Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy

DS Wijesinghe


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
I can understand your feelings but once you have invested in the stock market do not think that you are in an airborne plane, where you have no option but to jump out to death if some one tells you it's going to crash. Or else perish with the crash

Somewhat comparable Example is a Train and you will have the options to get off from the train at the stations that, it will stop well before the point where the crash is expected

Anyway let's be optimistic, despite the poor performance of CSE since January 2015 to-date

ruwan326

ruwan326
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@DS Wijesinghe wrote:I can understand your feelings but once you have invested in the stock market do not think that you are in an airborne plane, where you have no option but to jump out to death if some one tells you it's going to crash. Or else perish with the crash

Somewhat comparable Example is a Train and you will have the options to get off from the train at the stations that, it will stop well before the point where the crash is expected

Anyway let's be optimistic, despite the poor performance of CSE since January 2015 to-date
Crash or not saving your life(capital in stock) is only matters.If you have time please find and watch the movie............ Wink
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjKEXxO2KNE

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