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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » SHUT IT....ZIP IT........... FOCUS ON PICKING WINNING SHARES

SHUT IT....ZIP IT........... FOCUS ON PICKING WINNING SHARES

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ruwan326

avatar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Sri Lanka's Union Assurance June quarter profits surge 349-pct(Aug 15, 2018)
Profits at Sri Lanka's listed Union Assurance surged 349 percent from a year earlier to 300.2 million rupees in the June 2018 quarter on rising revenue and lower costs, interim results showed.
The company specializes in long term, or life, insurance, reporting earnings of 5.09 rupees a share in the June quarter, interim results filed with the Colombo Stock Exchange showed.
Earnings for the six months to end June 2018 was 10.25 rupees a share on profits of 604 million rupees, up 245 percent from a year earlier. During the premium, gross premium incomes growing 12 percent from a year earlier to 5.2 billion rupees and investment income growing 16 percent to 2 billion rupees.
Union Assurance was trading 3.60 rupees higher on Wednesday at 280 rupees.
In the June quarter, gross written premium income rose 13 percent from a year earlier to 2.6 billion rupees, with reinsurance costs rising 13 percent to 138 million rupees, leading to net written premiums growing 13 percent to 2.5 billion rupees.
Profit from operations grew 495 percent to 278.8 million rupees as net losses from changes to contract liabilities in the life fund fell 53 percent to 1 billion rupees.
Net claims and insurance benefits paid rose 88 percent to 792.2 million rupees and underwriting and acquisition costs grew 37 percent to 542.3 million rupees.
Operating and administrative costs rose 57 percent to 809 million rupees
The company did not report any income tax expenses having carried forward taxable losses from the previous financial year, the company said.
The Inland Revenue Department has raised an income tax assessment of 832 million rupees for the 2015/16 financial year along with a 50 percent fine, which totals 1.3 billion rupees.
"Directors are of the view that it has followed due process and acted in accordance with the prevailing laws in its tax submission and therefore, the above assessments have no rationale or basis in law," the company said in the notes to the interim results.
Union Assurance's life fund was worth 35.4 billion rupees at end June 2018, down from 39.5 billion rupees six months earlier due to the falling value of financial investments to 29.6 billion rupees from 34.5 billion rupees. 
Gross assets increased to 44.5 billion rupees at end June 2018, up from 43 billion rupees six months earlier.
Net Assets fell to 11.4 billion rupees from 11.9 billion rupees. 


https://economynext.com/Sri_Lanka_s_...3-11547-3.html

MRF


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
So what's a good price to buy the shares for

ruwan326

avatar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@MRF wrote:So what's a good price to buy the shares for
275/= Do your own analysis first Wink

ruwan326

avatar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

ruwan326

avatar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@ruwan326 wrote:
@MRF wrote:So what's a good price to buy the shares for
275/= Do your own analysis first Wink
You might get it under 275/= also, if you can hold till next Quarter buy it....... Otherwise wait till JKH drama finish so ASI can move up.....There might be a support @ 135 for JKH and lets hope it will support  Very Happy

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
SHUT IT........ZIP IT........AND NOW IT'S TIME TO SHOVE IT !!!

DS Wijesinghe


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@ruwan326 wrote:
@MRF wrote:So what's a good price to buy the shares for
275/= Do your own analysis first Wink
Dear MRF 

Successful investing is not buying a stock recommended by another member of the general public, at a price recommended by him and holding for a time period recommended by him to sell. If you do that blindly, that would be gambling. Investing is not Gambling. We will never be able to get rich in our life through such gambling.practices

1. There are a few cardinal rules adopted by all time highly successful investors in the world. As Warren Buffet says The No.1 rule is ‘Do not loose your money’ and the No. 2 rule is ‘Do not Forget Rule No.1’.  If you do not want to loose money, ‘Always invest with Certainty’ and ‘ Do Not Gamble’. That’s what Buffet means.

2. Always invest in a company from an industry that you understand and you like. You need to love the business of the company you invest in. If you are buying a stock from life insurance industry you need to be a believer of life insurance and understand life insurance industry. Ideally you must have bought at least 1 life insurance policy in your life time and must be in a position to at least understand what “Gross Written Premium” (GWP), First Year Premium(FYP) terminologies used in the insurance industry. ( These terminologies are explained in their Annual Reports)

If you really don't understand what  life insurance industry is all about, then you're gambling when you buy a stock from it. Remember INVESTING IS NOT GAMBLING.

3. If you pass the test under Point 2, and then select UAL to invest, ideally you must patronize their products or have close associates working in the life insurance industry (could even be your life insurance agent) to keep a close tab on UAL & Competition

4. After you had figured out that you love the industry and the company, look at sales(GWP in case of insurance companies), profitability(NP), Earnings per share(EPS), Net Asset Value Per Share(NAVPS), annual dividend(DPS) and Return on Equity(ROE) for least 5 years.(preferably for 8 years). Compounded annual growth rates of these performances need to be a minimum of 10% per annum during the 5 or 8 year period you are reviewing. If the performances are not consistent with visible swings up and down, don't even bother to touch the stock. I believe in the case of UAL, their past performances have been consistent with acceptable growths. I’m not going to tell you but you need to analyze and see yourself or get a researcher at your stock broker to do this for you.

5. Before you invest in any business pay close attention to the people who run it. Do it even after you've invested in that business. Is the CEO a honest and a great leader? He/she HAS to be Shareholder driven and one who will have great ambition to take the company to greater heights.If the management team doesn't have talent or integrity, they'll run the business into the ground and you'll be in danger of losing your capital. Therefore please carefully research the CEO and his track record.

Read very carefully the CEOs message to the shareholders in the Annual Reports and quarterly reports. A good CEO would always make an effort to explain in a way that everyone can easily understand. If you are confused as to what the CEO is trying to tell the shareholders, it could be that the management is intentionally misleading and the company might be in trouble.


In my opinion UAL CEO and Management has the capability and skills to take the company forward with desired future growth levels and has been comprehensive in reporting in their Annual Reports.

6. Now when all above are OK and if you have decided to BUY UAL do it with the intention of HOLDING for a minimum of 5 years.  



7. You need to buy the Stock at a significantly discounted price of what that stock is really worth. There is no point in buying a wonderful business at a wonderfully high price. 

When you determine at what price you want to buy UAL pay close attention to 2 factors

a. Net Asset. Value Per Share(NAVP) is 192/- and today share traded at a low of 265/- also. If you buy at current price you will be buying at a price much higher than what the stock is really worth and you need to be conscious of it
b. Only 60 million shares issued, 90% owned by JKH and top 20 major shareholders holding 96% and it means significantly illiquid .stock and could be moved up in price easily, similar to CCS which is also under JKH.



 Happy Investing!!!

ruwan326

avatar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@DS Wijesinghe wrote:
@ruwan326 wrote:
@MRF wrote:So what's a good price to buy the shares for
275/= Do your own analysis first Wink
Dear MRF 

Successful investing is not buying a stock recommended by another member of the general public, at a price recommended by him and holding for a time period recommended by him to sell. If you do that blindly, that would be gambling. Investing is not Gambling. We will never be able to get rich in our life through such gambling.practices

1. There are a few cardinal rules adopted by all time highly successful investors in the world. As Warren Buffet says The No.1 rule is ‘Do not loose your money’ and the No. 2 rule is ‘Do not Forget Rule No.1’.  If you do not want to loose money, ‘Always invest with Certainty’ and ‘ Do Not Gamble’. That’s what Buffet means.

2. Always invest in a company from an industry that you understand and you like. You need to love the business of the company you invest in. If you are buying a stock from life insurance industry you need to be a believer of life insurance and understand life insurance industry. Ideally you must have bought at least 1 life insurance policy in your life time and must be in a position to at least understand what “Gross Written Premium” (GWP), First Year Premium(FYP) terminologies used in the insurance industry. ( These terminologies are explained in their Annual Reports)

If you really don't understand what  life insurance industry is all about, then you're gambling when you buy a stock from it. Remember INVESTING IS NOT GAMBLING.

3. If you pass the test under Point 2, and then select UAL to invest, ideally you must patronize their products or have close associates working in the life insurance industry (could even be your life insurance agent) to keep a close tab on UAL & Competition

4. After you had figured out that you love the industry and the company, look at sales(GWP in case of insurance companies), profitability(NP), Earnings per share(EPS), Net Asset Value Per Share(NAVPS), annual dividend(DPS) and Return on Equity(ROE) for least 5 years.(preferably for 8 years). Compounded annual growth rates of these performances need to be a minimum of 10% per annum during the 5 or 8 year period you are reviewing. If the performances are not consistent with visible swings up and down, don't even bother to touch the stock. I believe in the case of UAL, their past performances have been consistent with acceptable growths. I’m not going to tell you but you need to analyze and see yourself or get a researcher at your stock broker to do this for you.

5. Before you invest in any business pay close attention to the people who run it. Do it even after you've invested in that business. Is the CEO a honest and a great leader? He/she HAS to be Shareholder driven and one who will have great ambition to take the company to greater heights.If the management team doesn't have talent or integrity, they'll run the business into the ground and you'll be in danger of losing your capital. Therefore please carefully research the CEO and his track record.

Read very carefully the CEOs message to the shareholders in the Annual Reports and quarterly reports. A good CEO would always make an effort to explain in a way that everyone can easily understand. If you are confused as to what the CEO is trying to tell the shareholders, it could be that the management is intentionally misleading and the company might be in trouble.


In my opinion UAL CEO and Management has the capability and skills to take the company forward with desired future growth levels and has been comprehensive in reporting in their Annual Reports.

6. Now when all above are OK and if you have decided to BUY UAL do it with the intention of HOLDING for a minimum of 5 years.  



7. You need to buy the Stock at a significantly discounted price of what that stock is really worth. There is no point in buying a wonderful business at a wonderfully high price. 

When you determine at what price you want to buy UAL pay close attention to 2 factors

a. Net Asset. Value Per Share(NAVP) is 192/- and today share traded at a low of 265/- also. If you buy at current price you will be buying at a price much higher than what the stock is really worth and you need to be conscious of it
b. Only 60 million shares issued, 90% owned by JKH and top 20 major shareholders holding 96% and it means significantly illiquid .stock and could be moved up in price easily, similar to CCS which is also under JKH.



 Happy Investing!!!
When I said do your own analysis I did not tell you the details....... Very Happy
Though we both have different views I am totally agreed what DS siad lol!

If you take the advice from DS Wijesinghe,and invest very less chance of loosing money though you need to wait 5 years which is LONG TERM INVEST Basketball Basketball


I like to do 40% Long term Invesment
40% short term and 20% Trading Wink   

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