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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook

PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook

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1 PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:31 am

salt

avatar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Will PC House report meaningfull increase in profits?
What will be the price outlook after 3Q reports?

2 Re: PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Thu Feb 03, 2011 12:09 pm

invest-abc


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Latest positive developments of PC House came to ground during past 4 to 5 weeks, so it's too early to see the progress in financial results. However, looking at the recent press relaeases made by the Management we can expect something decent.

3 PCH financial report released on Thu Feb 03, 2011 5:44 pm

Monster

avatar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/961_1296733192441.pdf

Quarter EPS only 0.22. Result is not expected by MW and others who promoted PCH. So, according to market price, PCH is massively overvalued.

4 PCH financial Statement on Thu Feb 03, 2011 5:58 pm

ranga


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic

5 Re: PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Thu Feb 03, 2011 6:02 pm

$$$


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Results out blood splattered.....Anualised Eps might not even reach Rs.1.

Lots of investors will now see the truth and hopefully sanity will prevail. Massively over valued. Ideal price around Rs.15. I feel for the people who purchased at higher prices

6 PCH financial Statement on Thu Feb 03, 2011 6:03 pm

ranga


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Profit(Mn)
30-Jun-10 56.3 0.33(EPS)
30-Sep-10 47.5 0.21(EPS)
31-Dec-10 50 0.22(EPS)

7 Re: PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Thu Feb 03, 2011 6:10 pm

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
There you go, the much awaited PCH financial statements are out. Where is the growth everyone has been talking about?

Bottom line has improved from 70 to 140 million you say? deduct the difference in interest paid that's 58 million. So you have just 12 million growth attributable to the massive expansion campaign

8 Re: PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Thu Feb 03, 2011 6:14 pm

$$$


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
9 months Rs.140 Million (99% increase from last year) last Quarter 50 million (46% Increase last year)
Impressive results. But doesn't warrant the current share price value. Massively over valued.

Lets see how the market reacts to this. It has already begun reacting in my eyes

9 Re: PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Thu Feb 03, 2011 6:17 pm

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@$$$ wrote:9 months Rs.140 Million (99% increase from last year) last Quarter 50 million (46% Increase last year)
Impressive results. But doesn't warrant the current share price value. Massively over valued.

Lets see how the market reacts to this. It has already begun reacting in my eyes

Yes, but that's just a reduction of finance cost. Every single company at the CSE has done that.

10 Re: PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Thu Feb 03, 2011 6:22 pm

mission


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Now dont tell that we didn't warn u guys.. it was evident that PCH cant do miracles.

11 Re: PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Thu Feb 03, 2011 6:33 pm

maximus


Stock Trader
I found a particular name while going through top 20 PCH share holder list, this name was not in Q2 report but in Q3 report.

MOHAMED NIZAM SINGA LAXANA 682,900 0.3%

I remember the same name came up when MW real name was disclosed, Can this be pure coincident?

12 Re: PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Thu Feb 03, 2011 6:40 pm

innam

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
maximus if you go through the BFL interim statements you will see the same name....now you know why such a massive effort (so much time and so many 1000s of posts) push was done on BFL and PCH....This is why PCH was "supposed to reach 100"
(Almost) No one does a social service for free, everone needs an incentive. Now you know the tortoise's incentive.....

13 Re: PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Thu Feb 03, 2011 6:40 pm

sunandaf


Stock Trader
Check the BFL main share holders list.NIZAM also in there.

14 Re: PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Thu Feb 03, 2011 6:44 pm

mission


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
HERAYMILA INVESTMENTS LIMITED held 4.2% at the end of 30 sep 2010. BUT now they are not even in the top 20 shareholder list.. they have sold out a large proportion of their investment

and Foriegn shareholding has decresd from 6.37% to 1% this quarter. that's another dent to PCH. and we all know senthi is a master trader who knows when he will dump his shareholding to the poor retailers.

15 Re: PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Thu Feb 03, 2011 6:46 pm

innam

avatar
Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
Big question is will the tortoise dump his shareholding before it reaches 100?

16 Re: PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Thu Feb 03, 2011 6:48 pm

Monster

avatar
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@sunandaf wrote:Check the BFL main share holders list.NIZAM also in there.

Very interesting. Same person is in the BFL top 20 list too.

Mr. M.N. Singa Laxana 101,040 0.63%

17 Re: PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Thu Feb 03, 2011 6:48 pm

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Since everybody is talking about income statement, i would to draw all of your attention to the balance sheet and specially for these 2 items which have an impact to the Income Statement
GROUP

31.12.2010 30.09.2010 31.07.2010 31.03.2010
Inventory 786,099,000 616,000,052 413,660,742 390,782,000
Trade Receivables 649,810.000 591,347,577 517,678,745 427,316,000

31.12.2010 30.09.2010 31.07.2010 31.03.2010
Inventory 759,680,000 607,109,643 405,568,333 382,782,000
Trade Receivables 619,800.000 524,755,707 457,824,314 388,752,000

Also noted some changes in the Top 20 Shareholders

Experts fluent with the B&S, IS, do you thing these 2 items might have impact on the income statement?

18 Re: PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Thu Feb 03, 2011 6:49 pm

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@maximus wrote:I found a particular name while going through top 20 PCH share holder list, this name was not in Q2 report but in Q3 report.

MOHAMED NIZAM SINGA LAXANA 682,900 0.3%

I remember the same name came up when MW real name was disclosed, Can this be pure coincident?

I think this is important enough to deserve a thread on it's own right. Please start one.

19 Re: PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Thu Feb 03, 2011 6:51 pm

tubal


Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@innam wrote:Big question is will the tortoise dump his shareholding before it reaches 100?

maybe he already has. That's the share holding as at 31/12.

But let's please do start a new thread with this. It's too important to be discussed as a foot note inside this thread.

20 Link on Thu Feb 03, 2011 7:03 pm

RockStock


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics

21 Re: PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Thu Feb 03, 2011 7:09 pm

econ

avatar
Global Moderator
tortoise seem to be buy and promote.. Evil or Very Mad

22 Re: PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Thu Feb 03, 2011 7:16 pm

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
All experts in the BS & IS please share your thoughts for my post thanks

23 Re: PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Thu Feb 03, 2011 7:41 pm

salt

avatar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
There is no big jump in profits

PC House could be manupulated by interested groups

If so called Nizam is MarketWatch and had he willfully misled the forum, SEC should investigate it

HOWEVER, PC house & IT industry COULD be growing at faster rate than rest of the economy

24 Re: PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Thu Feb 03, 2011 7:47 pm

ronstyn


Equity Analytic
Equity Analytic
@Gaja wrote:All experts in the BS & IS please share your thoughts for my post thanks


I am no expert, but I raised these same concerns on investnow seeing their Sept 2010
financials.

My concerns were Q on Q increase in inventory and trade receivables
and also Q on Q increase in Finance cost despite IPO infusion and decreasing interest rates.

Another concern is rising inventory especially in IT products which become obsolete in short time.

25 Re: PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Thu Feb 03, 2011 7:58 pm

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Basically this is my concern PCH in the business where changes in technology took place every sections, but here the issue is their inventory is building up heavily so there might be more obsolete stocks which need to written off even though i am not sure whether is actually building up or they increase their stock levels more because of high demand.

With regard to increase in the receivable level, are there any requirement for provision of bad & doubtful debts. At the same time i am not sure about the proposition of the receivables.

26 Re: PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Thu Feb 03, 2011 8:15 pm

mono

avatar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
there will be a blood bath on monday.

27 Re: PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Thu Feb 03, 2011 8:34 pm

mission


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
dam this is going to be bad.. mono, tubal and a whole bunch of guys tried to warn all of them.. hard luck.. i hope and wish that people who invested would not fall in trouble.

28 Re: PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Thu Feb 03, 2011 8:34 pm

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Mono, you promised to comeback within 24 hours day before yesterday, and now more than 48 hours passed. Hope still u involve in the research on the Gem identified by you

29 Re: PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Thu Feb 03, 2011 8:49 pm

mono

avatar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Gaja wrote:Mono, you promised to comeback within 24 hours day before yesterday, and now more than 48 hours passed. Hope still u involve in the research on the Gem identified by you

a thousand apologies,

I'll get it up asap. to be honest i have done zero work on the topic. other than wonder where to look.
I'm sort of thinking construction as these guys will benefit nicely for years to come from all the developmental stuff. but i need more time

30 Re: PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Thu Feb 03, 2011 8:56 pm

Rajitha

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/961_1296733192441.pdf
Here is your Rs 0.22 earnings per quarter for december go nuts with it lol!

31 Re: PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Thu Feb 03, 2011 9:09 pm

Gaja


Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@mono wrote:
@Gaja wrote:Mono, you promised to comeback within 24 hours day before yesterday, and now more than 48 hours passed. Hope still u involve in the research on the Gem identified by you

a thousand apologies,

I'll get it up asap. to be honest i have done zero work on the topic. other than wonder where to look.
I'm sort of thinking construction as these guys will benefit nicely for years to come from all the developmental stuff. but i need more time


No problem boss will wait to get your research done

32 Re: PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Fri Feb 04, 2011 9:39 am

Chinwi

avatar
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
Associate Director - Equity Analytics
@mono wrote:there will be a blood bath on monday.

Whenever there is a blood bath there will be smart vulture gathering to collect.

I may become one of them if it drop to my level. !

BTW, you can see web blogging can be used to put the share priced move both ways.
If we react to them blindly when they push and also down there is a huge possibility to loose money.
Now I feel, someone can use this new situation to put it drastically down in order to collect, during next few days.

Can you remember when we talk bad about PCH when it went down to 8-9, no one was there to promote it. After collecting enough only they found it as a gem and started marketing.

Hay, do not give me negative marks for this. Smile

33 Re: PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Fri Feb 04, 2011 10:15 am

Rajitha

avatar
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Chinwi wrote:
@mono wrote:there will be a blood bath on monday.

Whenever there is a blood bath there will be smart vulture gathering to collect.

I may become one of them if it drop to my level. !

BTW, you can see web blogging can be used to put the share priced move both ways.
If we react to them blindly when they push and also down there is a huge possibility to loose money.
Now I feel, someone can use this new situation to put it drastically down in order to collect, during next few days.

Can you remember when we talk bad about PCH when it went down to 8-9, no one was there to promote it. After collecting enough only they found it as a gem and started marketing.

Hay, do not give me negative marks for this. Smile

Yes but for me to justify the company purely on there business model and the quarterly reports the share price would have to come back down to around Rs 10( thats still over PE of 12 with almost no PEG). So I think we are a price band and few weeks minimum away from that point Razz

34 PCH on Fri Feb 04, 2011 11:02 pm

knowledge


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
I usually don't participate in this forum and rather just follow the amusing and/or helpful threads going on, they make good entertainment. However, for all those out there loving or hating PCH, let's consider a few fundamental realities:

01) PCH appears overvalued when applying standard evaluation techniques
02) Their Q4 2010 results are not as impressive as everyone expected
03) There have been numerous rumors, allegations, etc. on various forums over the past 2 months
04) The share price movement of PCH on certain days appears like manipulation
05) Many of us can report of first-hand negative experience as customers of PCH
06) PCH primarily is a retailer, not a software developer as some claim

So far so good in favor of the nay-sayers, but

07) The whole PCH saga only started during Dec2010, when the business of Q4 was already conducted
08) Any movement of any share price always has an element of crowd behavior to it
09) Some "blue chip" shares trade at much higher PE ratios (e.g,. KHL: 100+)
10) Especially in the IT sector, share prices reflect future outlook rather than past performance
11) Dr. Senthilverl and others would most certainly not increase their stakes (massively) without a plan
12) Other ("blue chip") companies have identical share price growth patterns over the past months
13) PCH will engage in a few interesting acquisitions and expansions during 2011
14) Just like there's people promoting PCH to get the share price up, there's plenty of people talking negatively in order to bring prices down and to then collect

I am not advocating nor advising against PCH, this is purely my opinion and I think it's all gotten out of hand the last few weeks. Whoever Marketwatch/Marketbull is, one thing he has always done: advised people to do their own research, so nobody can blame him. Everyone legally entitled to trade is legally bound by accepting the outcome of their own decisions.

As for those forecasting a dooms day scenario for Monday, well, personally I believe that PCH will go down to about 25 next week and then hover there for a while before the next run (35 maybe). Some big players have identified PCH as a target and it's mostly the small traders that are selling off at the moment, collecting profits and engaging in the usual panic sell-offs. Good luck to everyone, PCH or not, just keep these forums clean please. We all want to make some money, nobody likes to lose, and in the end we are all here to learn something.

Meta Trader

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Meta Trader wrote:Good job hasi !
reputed analyst hasi84 reveals most misleading information that he has come across on an online forum!
@hasi84 wrote:
@NEWSTOCK wrote:Important developments: As per quarterly reports AS AT31/12/2010

Sri Lanka's PC House will become more profitable after IPO:experts

Group bottom line expected to grow 20 percent year-on-year, despite declining margins

NDB is projecting a forward PE ratio of 10.23 times earnings in 20011, 8.72 times in 2012, and 7.48 times in 2013.
"
If you take a P/E ratio of 15 but the growth would be about 20 percent so the P/G to growth (PEG) ratio is much less than one," Senaka Kakiriwaragodage, assistant vice president at NDB Investment Bank told LBR.
"

This has to be the most misleading information I have come across on an online forum!
this statement was made by NBD prior to the IPO: the forward PE ratio was calculated assuming a share price of 11 and a projected EPS of 1.08 for FY11.
How can anyone use such a quote to promote PCH when:


1. Share price is currently 28+
2. It's on track to miss its expected earnings for FY11.

Its high time you stop harping on about PCH because in my personel opinion your comments are untethical and bordeline fraud!

source:http://www.moneyreport.lk/fullstory.php?nid=201007241248538362

36 PCH victim talks ..... on Sun Feb 06, 2011 11:30 am

Meta Trader

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics

37 Mr. MOHAMED NIZAM SINGA LAXANA! Who is he? on Sun Feb 06, 2011 11:34 am

Meta Trader

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@godswen wrote:They say it's marketwatch from investnow.lk, And he hold huge amounts of both BFL and PCH!

Just for discussion! Nothing else!

Mods I think I can use someones name in a topic? Shocked

Regards!
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t343-mr-mohamed-nizam-singa-laxana-who-is-he

38 Much awaited PCH quarterly report!! on Sun Feb 06, 2011 11:37 am

Meta Trader

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Rajitha wrote: PC House report out lol!
I'm just rofling in the floor atm.
http://www.cse.lk/cmt/upload_report_file/961_1296733192441.pdf

Do not read below if have no PCH shares:-
This part is for all idiots who insulted me and talked about PEG ratios and amazing growth when trying to explain about PCH. Its a PC retailer not a software producer as been saying for months and a crap one at that.
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t344-much-awaited-pch-quarterly-report

39 What is this Tortoise plus strategy on Sun Feb 06, 2011 11:40 am

Meta Trader

avatar
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Meta Trader wrote:ONE OF THE COMPONENT OF THAT STRATEGY IS IN UNKNOWN TIME #PCH SHARE PRICE WILL PASS THE #DPL SHARE PRICE . (which is trading above the Rs 70 )

and he never disclose the his so called TPS .This is what we call sending SUBLIMINAL MESSAGES . so you will be a blind follower of him for life . people who reads his posts will be mesmerized and forget the reality .

didn't you see his writing style ? tongue
the key feature of it repeating the same thing over and over again and saying pch share must trade above the DPL share .
can you see any logic in there ?

even Mr sakvithi used the same tactic . which is keep repeating the same thing over and over again so people will not ask any question but nod the head to any thing he says or do without any argument .

PSYCHOLOGICAL MIND GAME + INVESTING = TORTISE PLUS STRATEGY cheers
http://forum.srilankaequity.com/t371-what-is-this-tortoise-plus-strategy

40 Re: PC HOUSE (PCH) - Future Outlook on Sun Feb 06, 2011 11:45 am

mono

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Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Meta, I think we got the message Razz

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