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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » CSE from Dawn of Peace to Rebirth of Terrorism

CSE from Dawn of Peace to Rebirth of Terrorism

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Quibit

Quibit
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
The two ASI movement charts below will explain how country economy has moved during last 10 years.

First chart show the ASI movement during the period from the death of Velupulle Prabakaran and dawn of peace 2009 upto January 2015 in which President Sirisena took over the country after winning the Presidential electionwith Mahinda Rajapakse. As you can see market has gained significantly during this period backed by stong economic fundamentals. All Share Price index performed exceptionally well, high corporate earning resulting from lower inflation and low borrowing costs. Exchange rates were well managed. Simply to say Mahinda Rajapakse not only handed over a peaceful country to Maithripala Sirisena, but he also a prosperous country with a booming economy and a vibrant stock market.

CSE from Dawn of Peace to Rebirth of Terrorism Screen10


Now look at the second chart below. This simply indicate the economic mismanagement during the period of the President Sirisens's government which is still not over. Government under the pretext of Yahaplanaya blatantly mismanaged the economy resulting in destruction of the strong economy that was handed over by Present Rajapakse in 2015. Short sighted economic and fiscal policies resulted in lower corporate earnings, high inflation, high borrowing cost and significant devaluation of the rupee during this period. End result of this action was the crashing stock market. From a high of 7000 ASI now down to 5000 levels. The turn of events in April 2019 simulate the scenario opposite to the dawn of peace in 2009. Question is where is the bottom and what would be the ultimate consequences of rebirth of terrerism to the performance of the stock market and ASI.

CSE from Dawn of Peace to Rebirth of Terrorism Screen11

My personal view is ASI is likely to get close to the level of 2009 unless something good happens before 2021.

mark

mark
Expert
Expert
I guess it wil reach 5000 levels in mid term and boune back, if terrorism prevails, then 4500 will be easily broken.
My gieve is about epf holding the bra without letting boobs come down, lets

Yahapalanaya

Yahapalanaya
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@mark wrote:I guess it wil reach 5000 levels in mid term and boune back, if terrorism prevails, then 4500 will be easily broken.
My gieve is about epf holding the bra without letting boobs come down, lets
Here +rep

soileconomy

soileconomy
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Quibit wrote:The two ASI movement charts below will explain how country economy has moved during last 10 years.

First chart show the ASI movement during the period from the death of Velupulle Prabakaran and dawn of peace 2009 upto January 2015 in which President Sirisena took over the country after winning the Presidential electionwith Mahinda Rajapakse. As you can see market has gained significantly during this period backed by stong economic fundamentals. All Share Price index performed exceptionally well, high corporate earning resulting from lower inflation and low borrowing costs. Exchange rates were well managed. Simply to say Mahinda Rajapakse not only handed over a peaceful country to Maithripala Sirisena, but he also a prosperous country with a booming economy and a vibrant stock market.

CSE from Dawn of Peace to Rebirth of Terrorism Screen10


Now look at the second chart below. This simply indicate the economic mismanagement during the period of the President Sirisens's government which is still not over. Government under the pretext of Yahaplanaya blatantly mismanaged the economy resulting in destruction of the strong economy that was handed over by Present Rajapakse in 2015. Short sighted economic and fiscal policies resulted in lower corporate earnings, high inflation, high borrowing cost and significant devaluation of the rupee during this period. End result of this action was the crashing stock market. From a high of 7000 ASI now down to 5000 levels. The turn of events in April 2019 simulate the scenario opposite to the dawn of peace in 2009. Question is where is the bottom and what would be the ultimate consequences of rebirth of terrerism to the performance of the stock market and ASI.

CSE from Dawn of Peace to Rebirth of Terrorism Screen11

My personal view is ASI is likely to get close to the level of 2009 unless something good happens before 2021.
Every citizen is suffering.earlier it was financially.now it is socially.

Sstar

Sstar
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Bottom of the barrel we have seen in 2009 was around ASI 2500 level. If we consider 2019 April ASI 5000 as the beginning of the bottom, then at 20% retracement ASI should fall to 4000 level. Lets keep our fingers crossed and see where the market is going to end. EPF blood money seems to have saved the market from imminent fall to these level.

Its quite obvious why EPF targeted one of the most capitalized company in the CSE to control the market. I am not surprised if EPF buys shares of JKH, SLT and other highly capitalized companies so that it could hold the ASI with minimum investment and minimum visibilty to the general public. How long can government artificially control the market is the question.

soileconomy

soileconomy
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Vice President - Equity Analytics
Without support of earnings market cannot keep its upward momentum.sustainable fact is impressive company earnings

Maharaja


Expert
Expert
Maharaja knows EPF cannot absorb the amount of foreign selling available. 4673 level will be reached !
Fundamentally Market will adjust. Wait ands see.

Maharaja

Yahapalanaya

Yahapalanaya
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@soileconomy wrote:Without support of earnings market cannot keep its upward momentum.sustainable fact is impressive company earnings
Open eye and see the current earnings of CDB, LFIN, CIND, AAIC, GRAN, TAFL, RHTL, OSEA, DIAL,..........etc

Bro. Learn to swim in both bear or bull market rather than finding other's mistakes.

Smile Smile Smile

Yahapalanaya

Yahapalanaya
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Yahapalanaya wrote:
@soileconomy wrote:Without support of earnings market cannot keep its upward momentum.sustainable fact is impressive company earnings
Open eye and see the current earnings of CDB, LFIN, CIND, AAIC, GRAN, TAFL, RHTL, OSEA, DIAL,..........etc

Bro. Learn to swim in both bear or bull market rather than finding other's mistakes.

Smile Smile Smile
Mr.Soil VFIN result also out, FYI

ChooBoy


Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
What is happening now?

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