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Sri Lanka Equity Forum » Stock Market Talk » Presidential Election Results 2019 and Share Market Direction

Presidential Election Results 2019 and Share Market Direction

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NANDANA2012


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
What do you all think ?

My guess is Gota has a marginal chance of winning whoever contests from other parties, but still too early to predict 100%. Sajith will be a better contender from UNP if nominations allowed.

Gota victory and possibilities will definitely provide a boost to the market with local Investors. But to get Foreign participation and become very active market, it will take more time.

Our market is trading at PE 7, whereas many other markets are way above. In India its around 27 and many south asian markets above 15. So many of our shares have the potential to gain 100% easily, but need enough funds and retailers to come back.

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
GR is the only saviour for the ailing stock market. The chances of green candidate winning is rather remote, but if it does happen the market will continue in its sluggish mode like in the past four years. 
Its a pity that people who want to make money in the stock market and at the same time being critical of GR don't realize this fact.

NANDANA2012


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
Though GR is a modest candidate with open and modern views on economy specially after his exposure to US, but MR and some his close associates still think 50 years back and think of nationalisation and Govt running business. They talk about taking back Hambanthota port, keeping Srilankan Airline under Govt etc which are economic disasters.  They are good play ground for Govt Corruption when they are kept under politicians. 

THAT IS THE MAJOR WORRY WITH A GOTA led Govt, but MR equally powerful and where GOTA will not try to take independent decisions due to close link. Else it is known and accepted they are super Bunch of managers together. But their view on privatisation is a very negative.

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
In my opinion they will act prudently regarding privatisation.
They would also adopt a balanced foreign policy learning from past mistakes and take the country forward focusing and fast tracking development & investments which will benefit the economy and in turn the ailing corporate sector & CSE. In today's competitive world every hour is precious but the present guys wasted four years doing sweet nothing and even did not take national security seriously.

hammurabi

hammurabi
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
People just forgot what happened before 2015. was it a developed country back then. Anyone remember the fear we had to raise voice against injustice? In government sector, only those with the Blue certificate (Nil balakaya) got jobs. Some enterprises’ interviews were held at Carlton house. How many state vehicles and security personnel escorted even Municipal councilors? Tourists were raped and murdered by political links. Many used baby’s name to avoid traffic charges. EPF was about to be turned into a pension. Banners, posters everywhere around. Even Flight attendents were recruited from beliatta. CSE was manipulated by political loyalists and SEC Chief was threatened and forced to resign. Day light robbery. Its fun to watch people going shopping and later complaining

Promoney


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
The biggest issue we faced in terms of the economy before 2015 was UN sanctions. If MR regime continued, sactions were imminent. International diplomacy was also at its lowest.

Arrowrisk

Arrowrisk
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@hammurabi wrote:People just forgot what happened before 2015. was it a developed country back then. Anyone remember the fear we had to raise voice against injustice? In government sector, only those with the Blue certificate (Nil balakaya) got jobs. Some enterprises’ interviews were held at Carlton house. How many state vehicles and security personnel escorted even Municipal councilors? Tourists were raped and murdered by political links. Many used baby’s name to avoid traffic charges. EPF was about to be turned into a pension. Banners, posters everywhere around. Even Flight attendents were recruited from beliatta. CSE was manipulated by political loyalists and SEC Chief was threatened and forced to resign. Day light robbery. Its fun to watch people going shopping and later complaining
Agree, but srilankan people are best in forget and fogiveness.  So these crupt politicians can robe the entire country and survive  till their life.

hammurabi

hammurabi
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@Promoney wrote:The biggest issue we faced in terms of the economy before 2015 was UN sanctions. If MR regime continued, sactions were imminent. International diplomacy was also at its lowest.

Having drug lords in the cabinet. was it a part of International diplomacy? They did alot of White elephant projects. Was it their international relations? Nationalized private institutes and sucking money out of treasury, was it the biggest economic issue they had to encounter??

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Promoney wrote:The biggest issue we faced in terms of the economy before 2015 was UN sanctions. If MR regime continued, sactions were imminent. International diplomacy was also at its lowest.
There was a threat of sanctions which was to be used by the super powers to achieve their own goals. Anyway situation today is totally different. 
Corporate sector to the grass root sector are under going different forms of pressure that they all are fed up with the present govt which lacks capability to govern a nation. Even a hair dresser can hold the portfolio of Finance minister. What would be the plight of the country???
An interesting analogy that came to my mind is, the corporate sector with few hair left goes to the hair dresser who levies a heavy fees for the hair cut and when queried was told the fees levied was search fees and not for the hair cut. This is how the present tax system works in the country.
Opening scene was burden and squeeze the corporate sector with super gains tax, screw the CSE in the name of disciplining SEC and on the other hand break into Central Bank.
SF was able to draw large gallery crowds and thought he will win and finally the white swan turned black. There is the silent majority and the younger generation who are going to decide on the winning candidate.
The country will elect a President who is farsighted in relation to the development of the nation taking into consideration the interests and needs of the wider spectrum of all sectors from corporate to grass root.
I am in no doubt that people will ensure a change, which the majority are looking forward to and the vote winning strategies of the present govt by printing money and increasing salaries and perks of public servants and even going to the extent of compromising national security will turnout to be futile.

hammurabi

hammurabi
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
Of course there might be a change. And later complain about it. When grade 8 failed ones holding cabinet and sell drugs to your kids infront of their school and ask your son to do canvassing to get a government job. Of course let them build  another airport, convention hall and a stadium at Yala and you can pay with your taxes

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
@Hammuarabi, Lalith Kotelawala's Deputy at "Golden Key (Pvt) Ltd" is opening a new company known as "New Golden Key (Pvt)Ltd". Will you invest money in the new company????

hammurabi

hammurabi
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
@samaritan wrote:@Hammuarabi, Lalith Kotelawala's Deputy at "Golden Key (Pvt) Ltd" is opening a new company known as "New Golden Key (Pvt)Ltd". Will you invest money in the new company????

Blue brigade coming in Maroon shirts. Will you rally?

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
You have not answered my question.

hammurabi

hammurabi
Senior Equity Analytic
Senior Equity Analytic
UNP is not the choice. Specially the present candidate. Should focus on the Intellectuals. A better management from the bottom. Unfortunately these citizens never learn

Teller

Teller
Moderator
Moderator
Bringing a third party to power is the best solution.


_________________
Teller said is said..

Promoney


Manager - Equity Analytics
Manager - Equity Analytics
The President, Prime Minister and majority of the Cabinet should be from the same party, and that psrty should have a majority in Parliament. That's key for political stability. The main lesson we learned from the Yahapalanaya debacle.

NANDANA2012


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
@Teller wrote:Bringing a third party to power is the best solution.

Yes that is the best solution, but our voters has not grown enough to realise it and also there is a trend to go after winning candidates and parties, though they are not good. BUT LUCKILY EXTREME PARTY POLITICS WHICH WAS THE NORM 10-15 YEARS BACK HAS DIMINISHED AND WE ARE IN A SITUATION FOR SUCH A MOVE MAYBE IN FEW YEARS.

NANDANA2012


Stock Analytic
Stock Analytic
Any idea has to be practically feasible. Getting 50% independent candidate is far remote chance nowadays. But an independent group like NPM can try to win at least 1 seat from all districts and about 15-20 MPs in the parliament, which can control most actions of the Govt and the President. That is the best feasible solution at the moment.

Eugine Fernando


Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
Senior Manager - Equity Analytics
@Teller wrote:Bringing a third party to power is the best solution.
I agree with you Teller, but  the Sri Lankan village voters are bind with a certain political party, so without a main political party support it is very difficult to win an election for a third party candidate., Now wait and see next week SLFP will announce their support to Gota than the market will rock this is really manipulation. This is Sri lanka, we have to live with this reality.

samaritan


Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics
Under the leadership of a visionary leader like GR the corporate sector is expected to do well and hence the stock market too would get a boost.
Some find it difficult to come to terms with reality.
GR winning the presidential race is already confirmed, start buying.

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